THE SILVER-COPPER SUPER-CYCLE: SilverSqueeze NOW CopperCrunch NEXT
MMG_030506
1. May 6, 2003
THE SOURCE OF INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH™
Analyst: Chris Rockingham, M.Sc., P. Geo.
Independent Equity Research Corp. 130 Adelaide St. W, Suite 2215, Toronto Ont., Canada M5H 3P5, www.eresearch.ca
MacMillan Gold Corp.
Recent Price $0.24
Symbol MMG:TSX-V
Shares O/S 25.8 million
52 Wk. Range $0.30-$0.10
Fiscal Year End Sept. 30
EPS CFPS
2000 n.a. n.a.
2001 n.a. n.a.
2002e n.a. n.a.
2003e n.a. n.a.
eResearch
Data Source: www.wallstreetcity.com
Recommendation
Speculative Buy
Target Price
$0.60
Risk
High
Ave. Monthly Trading Vol.
706,030
Quick Facts
STRENGTHS
• Mexican strategy, with a
focus on identifying
projects with the
geological potential for
hosting large
disseminated gold and
silver deposits
• Focussed and disciplined
management team
RISKS
• Requirement to raise
exploration capital on an
ongoing basis will be
dependent on results of
current programs and
global metal markets
• Inherent risks of early
stage mineral exploration
CONCLUSION
• A well managed junior
explorer that has achieved
its milestone targets as
expressed to their
shareholders. Their focus
on specific deposit models
in Mexico may yield
encouraging results
We are recommending MacMillan Gold
Corp. as a Speculative Buy to investors
who are seeking exposure to early stage
gold and silver exploration plays in
Mexico. The Company has assembled
five early stage exploration properties
within the last six months either by
staking or acquisition on very reasonable
terms. The targets on two of these claim
groups are disseminated silver deposits
similar to the Alamo Dorado deposit,
which has just been acquired by Pan
American Silver through its merger with
Corner Bay Silver Inc. The Company's
most advanced exploration property,
Cerro de Oro, is a low grade disseminated
gold silver target. The remaining two
properties are primarily gold targets.
Although the Company has been in
existence for at least twenty years, it had
been relatively dormant with the loss of
investor interest in gold and mineral
exploration during the late 1990's. Current
management revived the Company and
obtained its listing on the TSX Venture
Exchange in mid 2002. Over the last year
theCompanyhasmovedforwardbysetting
clear objectives and then achieving these
within its proposed time frame. It is this
focus and ability to achieve what they set
outto,asmuchasthequalityoftheirtargets,
that warrants investor attention.
The Company has recently raised
$450,000 through the exercise of
warrants so that they are well positioned
to achieve its goal of moving all of these
properties to the next stage of exploration.
We are recommending shares in
MacMillan Gold with a twelve-month
target of $0.60.
SUMMARYAND RECOMMENDATION
MacMillan Gold Corp. is involved in the acquisition, exploration and development of gold and silver
properties, primarily in Mexico.
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2. eResearch MacMillan Gold Corp.
2 May 6, 2003
THE COMPANY
MacMillan Gold Corp. is a Toronto based exploration company that has recently been
revived from a period of relative inactivity. Current management took over the Company
in 2001 with the objective of obtaining a TSX Venture Exchange listing. To this end
they raised the required working capital in the first quarter of last year, commissioned
the required independent third party report on their property of merit in Peru, and
achieved the desired listing by mid 2002. At this time the Company took the opportunity
to restructure the Board of Directors and review its overall strategy. Based partially on
the success of Corner Bay and its discovery of a relatively low grade, but metallurgically
attractive, disseminated silver deposit, management concluded that these targets were
worth exploring for, and that Mexico was an attractive environment. Since that decision
management has engaged experienced and respected people from the Mexican mining
community to act as local representatives and an experienced and capable geologist/
exploration manager to serve as Vice President, Exploration.
This combination has led to the examination of numerous properties with very specific
selection criteria. Five of the examined properties have now been acquired and the
Company is ready to move to the next stage. Concurrent with these activities the Company
has raised capital through a series of inexpensive private placements at or above the
current market price at the same time as it has minimized administrative costs.
During this quarter the Company plans to file an Annual Information Form. This will
allow it to have shorter time restrictions on future financings, as well as providing
much more technical information to shareholders.
MacMillan Gold Corp.
Mr. George Brown
36 Blue Jays Way
Suite 528
Toronto, ON
M5V 3T3 Canada
Phone: 416-867-1101
Fax: 416-867-1222
www.macmillangold.com
3. eResearchMacMillan Gold Corp.
3May 6, 2003
PROJECTS
Cerro de Oro Project (Figure 1)
Figure 1. Property Location Map
Source: Company reports
Figure 2. Cerro de Oro, Geological Setting
Source: Company reports
4. eResearch MacMillan Gold Corp.
4 May 6, 2003
The property is located 90 km south west of Saltillo in the northern part of the state
of Zacatecas, Mexico and eight km west south-west of the Concepcion del Oro base
and precious metal mine. Concepcion del Oro has been operating for many years and
produced over 40 million tons of base and precious metal mineralization. Current
reserves are a further eight million tons of lead zinc and silver mineralization and 40
million tons of gold and copper skarn type mineralization. The Cerro de Oro property
(2,263 hectares) is held through a number of agreements with various parties. The
largest land package is an Option held through Peñoles, one of Mexico's largest mining
companies. The agreement calls for exploration expenditures of US$ 500,000 and
option payments of US$ 70,000 over a four year period in order to earn 100% subject
to a 3% Net Smelter Return. The largest work commitments and payments are in the
latter years by which time the Company should have a good idea if its exploration
concept was valid and whether or not there is any kind of economic resource. Two
other smaller parts of the property were held by the estate of the former miner and
current ranchers. MacMillan Gold has been able to acquire rights to these for combined
option payments of US$ 21,000 over four years. At the same time the Company has
entered into a land use agreement with the owner of the surface rights, something
that is not always easy to conclude in Mexico.
Geologically the property is centered on a 3.5 km wide Eocene (33-55 million years
old) rhyodacite complex that has at least four phases with differing composition and
varying degrees of alteration and brecciation. This is younger than and different from
the rocks at the nearby Concepcion del Oro and Providencia mines, but is the same
age and rock type as the rocks at Penasquito deposit. The complex is extensively
altered and where sampled contains disseminated gold and silver mineralization. The
precious metal grades range from anomalous to what would be ore grade in a bulk
tonnage deposit. The complex is also anomalous in base metals, arsenic, antimony
and locally mercury, the so-called pathfinder elements for many epithermal gold and
silver deposits. Evidence of a mineralizing process on the property is also indicated
by the Santa Rosa Mines, a series of veins, replacement, and breccia deposits on the
eastern part of the property that are reported to have produced about 50,000 tonnes
of high grade gold and silver with associated base metals.
The intriguing part of the exploration model is that as much as three kilometres of the
northern prospective contact between the intrusive and the sedimentary rocks is
covered by alluvium (sands and gravels). It should be noted that many of the recently
discovered deposits in Mexico and the south-western United States have been located
under alluvium. The discoveries have usually involved a similar situation to this, a
known past producing but relatively small mine working or mineralized outcrop in a
mining district with much of the prospective geological terrain obscured by alluvium.
In and of itself, the mineral showing is not economically important but it demonstrates
that the mineralizing process was active. The Penasquito discovery fits this pattern
as it is almost entirely covered by alluvium, yet there is one outcrop in the vicinity that
indicates the possibility of what may be discovered.
Work by Peñoles, MacMillan Gold, and an independent consultant have verified the
presence of strongly anomalous gold and silver values along with a suite of associated
metals (zinc, lead, arsenic, antimony and mercury) along the three exposed contacts
of the caldera complex. These geochemical associations suggest two possible target
types, either a skarn as described above or a breccia pipe. A breccia pipe, in this
context, is a rock composed of rock fragments between which there is space for the
deposition of economic minerals particularly disseminated gold and silver. Penasquito,
In general the Cerro de
Oro target is similar to
Penasquito but seems to
be a larger intrusive
complex with a higher
gold to silver ratio
The intrusive complex
is extensively altered
with anomalous gold,
silver and the
“pathfinder elements”
5. eResearchMacMillan Gold Corp.
5May 6, 2003
30 km to the northwest is an example of this style of deposit. Western Silver (formerly
Western Copper) has recently announced an indicated resource of 118 million tonnes
with grades of 41.8 g/t Ag, 0.36 g/t Au, 0.38% Pb and 0.89% Zn with an additional
inferred resource of 58 million tonnes at slightly lower grades1
.
Drilling at Cerro de Oro is expected to start within the next month or two, now that
permits have been received, when the appropriate geophysical and more detailed
geochemical surveys have been completed.
Tetasiari Gold / Silver Project
Tetasiari is located 15 km south southwest of the Alamo Dorado property that
motivated Pan American Silver to merge with Corner Bay Silver Inc. With a proven
reserve of 35.5 million tonnes of 68 g/t silver and 0.26 g/t gold, the Feasibility Study
for Alamo Dorado indicated an operating cost of $3.25 per ounce of silver and total
costs of $4.13 per ounce silver. The calculated Internal Rate of Return is 17-33%
after tax, depending on the debt - equity mix. Based on 100% equity financing the
project has a Net Present Value of $19.1 million dollars. Another such find would be
an attractive project to the small to mid-tier silver producers and would certainly be
material for a company such as MacMillan Gold.
Tetasiari is a 724-hectare property that MacMillan Gold has optioned by payment of
US$1,000, issuance of 100,000 shares and a Net Smelter Return of 2.5%, 1% of
which may be purchased at MacMillan Gold's discretion for $1,000,000. Geologically
the property was selected for its similarities to the Alamo Dorado project, both with
respect to the overall potassic and silicic alteration, and its position with respect to
the Sinaloa Batholith. Within the core of brecciated and silicificed metasediments are
alluvial gold workings that indicate the potential for a bedrock source that is as yet
undiscovered. Initial rock and soil sampling confirms the presence of anomalous
gold and silver. Geological mapping indicates that the 500 metre thick package of
altered and brecciated rocks can be traced over a three-kilometre strike length.
MacMillan Gold plans a program of geological mapping, soil and rock sampling as
well as trenching in order to define diamond drill targets.
La Violetta Silver Project
La Violetta is a 524-hectare property, approximately 12 km northeast of the Alamo
Dorado, and like Tetasiari was acquired for its geological similarities to Alamo Dorado
and reported high-grade gold silver quartz veins. MacMillan Gold was able to stake
this property for its own account and no underlying agreements apply. A program
similar to that on Tetasiari is planned for the coming year.
1
Investors should note that discovery of this type of deposit can drive share appreciation by almost an
order of magnitude. One year ago prior to the discovery of Penasquito Western Silver shares were priced
at $0.60 compared to today’s price of $3.50, current market capitalization of $116 million, and a 52
week high of $4.74.
Alluvial gold workings
indicate the potential
for a bedrock source, as
yet undiscovered
Drilling at Cerro de Oro
is expected to start
within the next month
or two
6. eResearch MacMillan Gold Corp.
6 May 6, 2003
Figure 3. Tetasiara, Alamo Dorado and La Violetta Geology Map
Source: Company reports
Jalisco State Projects
Fiebre de Oro and El Soccorro
Both of these projects are located in south central Mexico between Mexico City and
the Pacific Coast. Both were acquired by staking, subject to a finder's fee and a Net
Smelter Return which the Company has an option to purchase outright at its election.
Fiebre de Oro is a gold silver prospect that covers an area of high-grade veins and
mineralized breccias within Tertiary rhyolite (silica rich) domes. These domes overlie
older andesitic (less siliceous and more iron rich) sequences that have been intruded
by quartz monzonite intrusives (granite like intrusions). Although this is a new discovery
the setting is similar to other gold and silver showings and mines within the productive
Sierra Madre Occidental that hosts most of Mexico's significant historic and current
silver mines. MacMillan Gold's initial work has confirmed the higher grade nature of
the veins with samples up to 20 g/t gold across a half to two metres. More importantly
its work has also indicated that the much wider breccias (50-125 metres) have gold
values from half a gram to almost five grams along the almost two kilometres of
strike that has been mapped out during their initial evaluation. This exciting target will
be evaluated through a program of detailed prospecting, soil geochemistry, mapping,
trenching and channel sampling. This target is adequately protected by the 1,700-
hectare claim.
El Soccorro is a silver target in a district that dates back to pre-revolutionary times.
MacMillan Gold acquired this property as its initial examination noted silver
mineralization in several different settings, namely as disseminations, veins and breccias
within argillites (very fine grained sedimentary rocks) and sandstones along with
barite (barium sulphate), quartz and carbonate minerals. The exposed occurrences
are up to six metres wide, however the alteration and colour anomalies suggest
widespread mineralization over a 200 metre by one kilometre long area. This area will
be further evaluated through a program similar to that at Fiebre de Oro, namely more
detailed rock and soil sampling prior to trenching with the specific aim of defining
drilling targets for subsequent programs.
Initial work has
indicated the presence
of gold in the breccias
as well as the high-
grade veins
The initial examination
noted silver in several
settings and the
alteration and colour
anomaly suggest the
presence of widespread
mineralization
7. eResearchMacMillan Gold Corp.
7May 6, 2003
Peruvian Properties
Minas Santa Rosa and Aquila Pit
These properties formed an integral part of the Company's ability to get re-listed on
the TSX-Venture Exchange. These properties had previously been optioned to one of
the world largest mining companies, Rio Tinto Mining and Exploration Ltd. Over
several years Rio Tinto spent US$ 1,500,000 on exploration and drilling and a further
US$ 170,000 on option payments to MacMillan Gold. When Rio Tinto withdrew
from the project in 1999 the Company regained 100% interest in these properties. In
March of 2000 MacMillan Gold optioned the adjoining ground (Pasacancha Concession)
from Inca Pacific Resources Inc. as the Company feels that the known mineralization
on the Santa Rosa / Aquila may extend onto the neighbouring ground. With results
from Rio Tinto's work that include 400.5 metres of 0.63% copper and 0.04 %
molybdenum and 270.2 metres of 0.44% copper and 0.02% molybdenum, there is
clearly a mineral deposit of some size here. The Company plans a modest four-to-six
hole drill program on these properties. Drilling within the Aquila pit would be to audit
and confirm historical data in government files. Drill holes on the Pasacancha
Concession would be to investigate the potential for an extension onto Pasacancha that
would increase the size of the mineralized system. As these properties are not central to
MacMillan Gold's strategy, management will joint venture this to another company
with a copper and / or a Peruvian strategy and focus, if there is any success in this
drilling.
DIRECTORS AND MANAGEMENT
Mr. George A. Brown, BBA, President
George has provided financial services to a number of mineral exploration and mining
companies over his 20-year career in the mining sector. Most notable among these
are Campbell Resources Inc., Cullaton Lake Gold Mines and Boulder Mining
Corporation. Most recently he was Treasurer of Corner Bay Silver Inc. during the
time of their Alamo Dorado discovery and of the feasibility study, which led to the
subsequent merger with Pan American Silver Inc. This background provides solid
experience with which to advance MacMillan and its new Mexican gold and silver
focus.
Mr. David Bending, M.Sc. Vice President Exploration
David has worked as an exploration geologist and manger with several large mining
companies. Most recently he was with Homestake, prior to their merger with American
Barrick, as Exploration Manager for Northern Latin America. David is fluent in Spanish
and has extensive experience working in Mexico. He is responsible for managing and
directing all Mexican exploration as well as evaluating future projects and opportunities.
Mr. Pedro Sanchez Majorada, M.I.M., B. Ap.Sc.
Mr. Majorado is a professional mining and metallurgical engineer with extensive
experience in Mexico both with the government and with some of Mexico's largest
mining companies. Most recently, and for the last ten years he was president of
Industrias Peñoles S.A. de C.V. As one of Mexico's most respected senior mining
executives he brings considerable influence and respectability to MacMillan Gold's
efforts in Mexico.
Drilling on the
Pasacancha Concession
will investigate the
possibility of a much
larger mineralized
system than that
currently identified
8. eResearch MacMillan Gold Corp.
8 May 6, 2003
Mr. Ross Lawrence, P. Eng., M. Commerce, Director
Ross has served as Vice Chairman of the well established and respected geological
consulting firm, Watts, Griffis & McOuat. With over 35 years experience in the
mining industry he will provide insight into many aspects of the mining industry.
Mr. Greg Van Staveren, C.A., C.M.A. and C.P.A. Director, CFO
Greg has been a partner with in one Canada's largest accounting firms and has extensive
experience with all aspects of corporate reporting within the mining and junior resource
sectors. As CFO he will be involved in all financial aspects of the company's activity
both in Canada and Mexico.
Mr. Geoffery Burns, B.Sc., M.B.A. Director
Geoff is one of two newly elected directors. He has over twenty years of industry
experience ranging from field geologist to senior vice president and C.F.O. of a major
international primary silver producer.
Mr. David Loder, P.Eng., Director
David has over forty years experience in the mining business from surveyor through
to senior management. Most recently he was vice president and general manager of
the Santa Gertrudis open pit mine in northern Mexico.
FINANCIAL FORECAST AND VALUATION
The company has 25.8 million shares outstanding (28.0 million fully diluted) with
management ownership of 20 %. At recent share prices of $0.25 - $0.27 this is a
market capitalization of $6.5 to $7.0 million. This is within the rather broad range of
its peer group of companies that are in the early stages of exploration and do not have
any indicated or inferred reserves or resources. Working capital has recently increased
to approximately $450,000 with the exercise of 100% of the warrants on March 7,
2003. This is adequate for the proposed program that will be particularly focussed on
the Cerro de Oro project. Management is keenly aware of both the need to minimize
administration expenses and the need to raise additional funding for ongoing work on
all of the properties.
We have valued the Company at C$0.60 within the next twelve months based on the
potential for discovery through drilling at Cerro de Oro, or through prospecting and
trenching, at one of the other four properties.
9. eResearchMacMillan Gold Corp.
9May 6, 2003
CONCLUSIONS
MacMillan Gold has identified and acquired five early stage gold and silver projects
on very reasonable terms or by staking. Its particular emphasis on disseminated gold
and silver, while not unique among exploration companies, places it in a smaller pool
of companies competing for these types of properties. The experience of management
and some of the key shareholders, with past successes such as the Alamo Dorado
deposit will give the Company a competitive advantage in this area. This particular
focus will also attract the segments of the retail market who are particularly interested
in silver plays. Although Cerro de Oro is the current focus of attention and the flagship
property we anticipate some very positive results from at least one of the other four
properties. These factors along with the experience and goal oriented nature of the
management warrants investor attention.
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eResearch Recommendation System
Buy: Expected total return within the next 12 months is at least 20%
Speculative Buy: Expected total return within the next 12 months is at least 40%. Risk is High (see
below)
Hold: Expected total return within the next 12 months is between 20% and the T-Bill rate
Sell: Expected total return within the next 12 months is less than the T-Bill rate
eResearch Risk Rating System
A company may have some but not necessarily all of the following characteristics of a specific risk
rating to qualify for that rating:
High Risk: Financial - Little or no revenue and earnings, limited financial history, weak bal-
ance sheet, negative free cash flows, poor working capital solvency, no dividends.
Operational - Weak competitive market position, high cost structure, industry con-
solidating, business model/technology unproven or out-of-date.
Medium Risk: Financial - Several years of revenue and positive earnings, balance sheet in line
with industry average, positive free cash flow, adequate working capital solvency,
may or may not pay a dividend.
Operational - Competitive market position and cost structure, industry stable,
business model/technology is well established and consistent with current state
of industry
Low Risk: Financial - Strong revenue growth and earnings over several years, stronger than
average balance sheet, strong positive free cash flows, above average working capi-
tal solvency, company may pay (and stock may yield) substantial dividends or com-
pany may actively buy back stock.
Operational - Dominant player in its market, below average cost structure, com-
pany may be a consolidator, company may have a leading market/technology posi-
tion.