Winning factors 2021

WINNING FACTORS IN HORSE RACING
How you can become a more successful punter by adopting the methods as out lined in
Winning Factors.
Photo by R. A. Stewart
Written by Robert A. Stewart

COVER PHOTO
Red Ripper returned to scale after winning the 2015 Kumara Gold
Nuggets Handicap at New Zealand’s iconic annual race meeting at
Kumara on the South Island’s West Coast.
PLEASE READ THIS FIRST
This book is for information only. There is no guarantee of success. The author/publisher
disclaims any perceived liability or loss incurred. Bettors must be aware that any opportunity for
financial gain also comes with a risk of financial loss. If you are uncomfortable with risk then
betting on the horses is not for you.
CONTENTS
Introduction
Golden Rules
The Major Meetings
Betting Types
Seeking Value
Factors of horse racing
Systems to try
INTRODUCTION
Horse racing can be as profitable as it is enjoyable when you approach your betting activities

with commonsense and are prepared to learn all you can and in this game there is no better
teacher than your own experience but you do not have to make many of the mistakes that most
punters make or fall into the traps that the bookies try to snare us hapless bettors with.
There are a number of factors which determine the outcome of horse races. These factors have
stood the test of time. Over a period of time, a certain percentage of winners will come from
those horses that last raced within the previous fifteen days, a certain percentage of winners
will be those that are racing in the same class as their last race, and the same applies to all
other factors.
All of us have our comfort zone where the amount of money bet on one horse starts making us
feel uncomfortable and as a result, our own judgment becomes impaired. It is that point when
we become over cautious and the possibility of loss plays on our minds and we don’t enjoy
watching the race as much as if we had no financial interest in it at all. At the other extreme, if
the size of our bets is too low in relation to our resources then the bet basically becomes
meaningless and we can become careless in our selection process. The size of your bets should
therefore be governed by the size of your regular income. All of your fixed household outgoings
and your retirement fund contributions must always be taken care of when deciding on how
much money you are going to play the ponies with.
The secret to success at horse racing is really no secret. It is the same as in any other field, work,
work, and more work but hard work which is not channeled properly is useless. Fortunately,
there is a wealth of information available for punters to digest which makes handicapping
horses much easier than was the case decades ago. More recently, the internet has made
research easier still however even with all this wealth of racing knowledge available, the vast
majority of punters struggle when it comes to selecting winners at the race track so it is hoped
that this publication will be of some help to you in swinging the percentages a little more in
your favour. It is beyond a shadow of a doubt that too much money is lost by too many people
at the races so if I am able to help you steer clear of those bets that are rather future then it has
made this ebook worthwhile.
There is no such thing as a certainty especially in this game, losing is a part of the game but the
key is really to win often enough and at odds that will help you to recoup your previous losses.
That does not mean backing long shots though. If you are backing outsiders to win big then you
are asking for consistent hiding.
I trust you will enjoy reading what I have to say which leaves me to say Happy Punting
How to turn $15 into $100 in one afternoon..

by punting on 5 highly favoured horses for a place. Check it out here:
https://oke.io/n6wF13k0
GOLDEN RULES OF RACE HORSE BETTING
Having a strategy for selecting your horses is one thing but using your common sense is another.
A lot of money is lost due to haphazard betting or downright stupidity. The Golden rules of
betting must be adhered to if you are going to get the most out of the sport of kings.
GOLDEN RULE ONE-Only bet with money you can afford to lose.
Now, I’m not going to say tut tut, you shouldn’t be gambling but in order to enjoy the sport of
kings you must have a clear conscience otherwise the pressure to win will not only affect your
enjoyment from racing but it will affect your judgment. At the end of the day if the loss of
whatever amount you stake on a horse is going to rob you of your beauty sleep then find
another pastime.
GOLDEN RULE TWO-Do not bet on every race
There is no law to say that you have to have a bet on every race. Having self-control will save
you a lot of money in the long run. At the track when not betting, use the spare time to relax
and have a cup of coffee and a muffin while waiting for the next race you are betting on. There
are some races just not worth betting on such as those where there is a red hot favourite or in a
race full of unraced maidens or two year olds. Treat the racing on offer as a buffet where you
get to pick and choose what you want to place your money on.
GOLDEN RULE THREE-Do not attempt to take the track home with you
In other words, do not try to get rich with small stakes by taking multies, jackpots, or the other
types of bets the bookies try to tempt you with. A few people do manage to win at these types
of bets but for everyone like that, there are countless thousands who lost everything they took
to the track.
GOLDEN RULE FOUR-Study form
I know this does sound obvious but a lot of people, particularly non racing people will back a
horse simply because of its name, silk colours, saddle cloth number, or because of what their
horoscope suggested. Occasionally you may hear stories about your auntie, nan, or sister who
won a big treble or quaddie using their lucky numbers but they will most likely spend the rest of

their life trying the same thing and give it all straight back. It is unlikely you will be interested in
what I have to say if you are this type of punter so you are most probably not this type of
punter.
GOLDEN RULE FIVE-There is always tomorrow
There is always another day so don’t try to get even by backing longshots in the last race. The
final race of the day is not called “the Get out Stakes” for nothing. Trying to recoup losses by
backing longer priced winners or increasing the size of your bets only leads to more losses. In
the past some astute punters have found that backing the favourite in the last race is a
profitable system but I have not checked it out.
GOLDEN RULE SIX-Don’t back a horse solely because a system told you to if there are other
factors that suggest it won’t win
Your system gives you a horse but the going is slow and the horse has shown in the past that it
struggles in the wet. What do you do? If you have got any brains you won’t bet on that
particular animal. You have to use your intelligence sometimes and be on the ball. A system
cannot think but you.
GOLDEN RULE SEVEN-Develop the right perspective
If your system gives you winners at around 5/1 or 6/1 then it means that you will only have to
get one winner in five or six just to break even yet a lot of punters when using a system will turn
around and say the system does not work after just one or two losses. Every system that is
sound in principle will churn out the winners over a period of time. You just have to be patient.
GOLDEN RULE EIGHT-Have your own opinions and with them
Legendary gambler, Pittsburgh Phil once said, “If you have no opinions of your own then you
have no chance of making money on the horses.”
You must be able to trust your own judgment. If you are wrong, then learn from the experience.
That applies to life in general and not just horse racing.
GOLDEN RULE NINE-Be Flexible
Do not be rigid in your thinking. Be prepared to change your school of thought as far as your
betting systems are concerned. You never stop learning in the racing game. Changing track
conditions can be a red flag to students of form. You have selected a horse on the basis that the
track is going to be no worse than dead but it rains an hour prior to your selection’s race and
the track turns slow. If you have already placed your bet then you have done your dough.

Always remember a 4/1 chance on good going may be only a 10/1 chance on slow tracks.
GOLDEN RULE TEN-Keep you’re betting funds separate from your day to day spending
Work from a betting bank, this is best done by opening a betting account with a bookie.
THE MAJOR MEETINGS
Every racing club will have its major race day with the main race being the cup. Trainers will
target these major race days or carnivals with horses they believe are good enough to be
competitive enough to take part. Not surprisingly some horses will win at the same
corresponding meeting they won at the previous year.
In New Zealand, the major carnivals are the Hawkes Bay Spring meeting, New Zealand Cup
meeting (November), Wellington Cup meeting (January), and the Auckland Cup meeting
(March). In the UK, the major meetings are the Cheltenham Gold Cup meeting (March), Grand
National meeting (April) over the jumps and the Epsom Derby meeting (June), Royal Ascot
(June), Goodwood (August), York Ebor meeting (August), and the Doncaster St Leger meeting
(September) on the flat. In Australia, the major meetings are the Sydney Cup meeting (April),
Caulfield Cup meeting (October), and the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington (November).
Other major meetings on the calendar with cup days are at Counties, Waikato, Manwatu,
Marton, Dunedin, Taranaki, Avondale, Hawkes Bay, and Rotorua. The Cup race usually attracts
good fields that give punters the opportunity to latch on to a nice priced winner.
Horses that were good enough to win at one major meeting will often be good enough to win at
another. In many of the major carnivals, some of the races will be full of horses that won their
last race with the Cheltenham festival in England being a prime example. So how do you know
which horse to back in such circumstances? Here is a simple formula. Check the prize money of
each horse’s last race and you will see some winners raced for less than 10k in the same race as
those that raced for 50k or more. The preference should be for the horse that raced for the
most prize money last time out.
Don’t however automatically assume that just because a horse won a high class race last time
out that it will come out and win today. All factors have to be considered. Many a time a good
horse has been given a lay off after winning a big race and has been backed and beaten first up
from a spell.
Metropolitan meetings may have more than one major meeting per year, in fact they have
several and using form from one meeting earlier in the season can lead to winners later on.
During the 2014/2015 season, Sakhee’s Soldier won three group races at Ellerslie. In Style and
Mongolian Khan were two other class gallopers that achieved that feat.

Finding winners at the major race days can become a bit of a lottery when the fields can often
be wide open so it pays to be very selective and/or have the courage to bet against the crowd. I
certainly do not back short priced favourites in open races.
TYPES OF BETTING OPTIONS
There is a range of betting types available for you at the bookies or through the totalisator so
let’s take a look at the options and consider the merits of each type of betting.
WIN
This is the most popular betting type, you simply back a horse for a win and if your horse wins
your wager is successful, if it is beaten you have lost, nothing could be simpler. This is betting in
its purest form and one that I prefer.
PLACE
Place betting, simply put, is betting money on a horse to finish first, second, or third (8 runners
or more) or first and second in races with 5-7 runners. The problem with place betting is that
the return is so small that you have to put a lot more on to receive a decent return. However, if
you can get odds of even money for a place then it may well be worth backing each way then
you will at least recoup your outlay if your horse finishes second or third. An each way bet is
two separate bets which mean that should your horse finish out of the money then you have
lost two wagers.
QUINELLAS
A quinella in New Zealand and Australia is when you select the first two horses or dogs in any
order. It does have its merits but it is hard to strike with a single ticket. Most punters therefore
take multiple bets when taking quinellas. The most popular methods are to box three or four
runners which would cost $3 or $6 respectively for $1 units. Another method is to sort out one
horse which must finish in the first two with four or more runners. Some punters have even
known to take the field. In the UK, a quinella is called a Dual forecast and it is two different bets

where you are betting on two horses to finish first and second in either order.
DOUBLES, TREBLES, QUADDIES
A double, treble, and quaddie is where you select the winners of two, three, or four races
respectively. The degree of difficulty depends on the size of the fields and the number of races
involved. The number of possible winning combinations is found by multiplying the number of
runners in each race. That is how many possible winning outcomes there are with each type of
bet and it of course varies depending on the size of fields. That basically explains why dividends
can be very large.
TRIFECTAS AND FIRST FOURS
Trifectas where you select the first three in the correct order and first fours as the name
suggests requires you to select the first four in the correct order are not easy to strike. The large
dividends being posted by these types of bets only mean that thousands are contributing
money to the pool with only a few taking out. Punters who regularly go for these betting types
usually take large multiple bets and unless you have the bank roll to sustain you then its best to
only have an occasional crack at these betting types.
PLACE 6/PLACEPOT
The place 6 or as it is called, the place pot in the UK involves selecting a horse to finish in a place
in each of the last six races on the card. This is considerably easier than many of the other
betting types but even so presents its own challenges. As with other betting types, having the
courage to go against the grain by opposing the favourite will give you an edge over the crowd.
The advantage with place 6 is that when taking multiple entries you could get two or three of
your selections to fill a dividend bearing place in the one race and if this happens in several
races then you will have several winning combinations on the same ticket. The major meetings
tend to provide the larger dividends with the place 6/placepot and if you are going to try your
luck occasionally at this form of betting then these major meetings would be the way to go.
Some of the major meetings are Royal Ascot in England, the New Zealand and Wellington Cup
meetings in New Zealand, and the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup meetings in Australia.
PICK 6/JACKPOT
The Pick 6 in New Zealand is the same as a jackpot in other countries and requires you to select
the winners of six races. These are impossible odds to put it bluntly which is why often the pick
6 is not struck on some weeks and those who are fortunate enough to strike it will often spend
hundreds of dollars/pounds in doing so. No doubt there will be a lot of unsuccessful punters

who also outlaid a great deal of money in an attempt to strike it. The pick 6/jackpot is best left
alone for small punters as they are simply feeding into the pool for the larger punters and
syndicates.
TRIPLE TRIO
This form of betting requires you to select the first three horses in any order in three races. It is
popular in Hong Kong where pools often reach over one million dollars in Hong Kong currency.
The New Zealand T.A.B tried the triple trio but punters soon lost interest once it became
apparent just how impossible it is to overcome the odds of winning. For the majority of punters,
the triple trio is more likely to break them than make them. My advice as far as the triple trio is
concerned is to wait until the pool reaches $1 million and take a lucky dip bet or easy bet.
SEEKING VALUE
Backing winners is one part of the equation but getting value is another and it becomes a
balancing act in determining a horse’s true chances of winning a race compared to its price. Just
because a horse is the favourite does not mean it has the best chance of winning. The favourite
loses far more races than it wins so there is some great value to be had if you have the skill and
the courage to bet against vulnerable favourites.
A lot of well fancied runners come unstuck for a number of reasons. Too much weight, the
going, unsuitable course, poor ride by the jockey, wide barrier, or feeling the effects of a hard
campaign. It never ceases to amaze me how some strongly fancied favourites have the odds
stacked against them yet the public will still over bet them.
One fact that so many punters overlook when assessing what is real value is that a horse may
have a 4/1 chance on good going but a 10/1 chance on slow tracks. On the other hand a horse
with moderate form may have a 10/1 chance of going good but on a slow track be a 5/1 chance.
It is really up to punters to be on the ball and have the courage to bet against what the crowd is
doing.
Whether a particular horse’s odds are good value all depends on the class of the race, whether
it is racing at its pet distance, and whether it has performed well in the going previously, and if
there are other factors that may or may not be against the horse then they have to be taken
into consideration. A horse may be at poor value at $3.50 (5/2) or be good value at even money.
It all depends on the race it starts in. I think this is where previous experience comes into it.
Don’t be greedy however and back a horse just because it is paying telephone numbers. There is
a reason why its odds are so large. The betting public does get it right most of the time. Around
75% of all winners are among the first four or five favourites.

Irrespective of the odds of a particular horse, they are poor if there are strong reasons why a
horse will not win or finish in a place.
A horse’s win rate should also be considered. A maiden which has had ten or so starts for a
number of placings and is only paying around even money represents poor value irrespective of
the strength of the opposition. It is the type of horse I would give a wide berth. It is hard
enough to find value with good horses let alone put your money on ordinary ones.
Favourites in the last generally provide good value because punters are attempting to recoup
the day’s losses. This is particularly true if there has been a run of winning longshots.
THE THIRTEEN FACTORS OF HORSE RACING HANDICAPPING
FACTOR ONE-FITNESS/CONDITIONING
This is the one factor that is taken into account by the vast majority of system players. The
reason is simple. There is no doubt that the majority of race winners come from the group of
horses that ran their last race not more than fourteen days. Any horse that last raced more than
two weeks ago can be classed as rather suspect. I don't think you can be sure that it will be at its
best. I think a clue can be found in its second to last race. If the horse's last two races were close
together, say 7-14 days between them and now has not raced for more than fourteen days, then
it looks as though the horse's trainer has given their animal time to get over the two runs. I
generally would not touch the horse if this is the case. Another reason for giving a horse extra
time off could be to give it more time to recover after a tough first up run. Many horses do not
sufficiently recover from a hard race first up after a spell and are unplaced next time out.
Many handicappers erroneously believe that a high class horse will beat a low class horse every
time but that is not true as so many punters have discovered to their cost. A high class horse will
not win if he or she is not fit, is racing ongoing it cannot handle or is burdened by a huge
weight. Class is the direct result of a number of other factors of which fitness and conditioning

play their utmost part.
There are several ways to ascertain where each horse is as far as it’s racing condition goes and
the main ones are as follows;
* The positive form pattern where a horse shows improvement at its last race compared
to it’s second to last race. For example, in the horse's second to last run it finished three
lengths behind the winner and last time out finished one length behind the winner. That
is an improvement or position form pattern of two lengths. However, one should never
discount any horse with a negative form pattern, which finished further back from the
winner last time out than it did two runs back as there can be mitigating circumstances
for that last run effort.
* The horse’s last run may have been weeks after its previous race and may have been a
bit short as far as fitness goes. A clue here is the number of days since its last run. If it is
on a y-day backup, then it is likely to be ready to race well.
* The horse has raced at least twice within the previous twenty-eight days. This is certainly
a clear indication of the horse’s current condition.
FACTOR TWO-WEIGHT
Weight can stop a train as the old saying goes but as with other factors, weight cannot be
considered on its own. A strong progressive horse can continue its winning streak despite
increases in weight. The factor of weight can have its biggest influence on the outcome of horse
races during the winter months when the tracks are heavy. It is not that unusual to see a horse
with an apprentice claim beat a more fancied rival which was required to carry its full carded
weight. That weight allowance can mean the difference between finishing first or second for
some horses.
It does not follow however that the more weight off a horse’s back the faster it will go because
it will reach a point when weight reduction will not make any difference. Then there are other
factors to consider as well, an unfit horse will not win irrespective of how much weight relief it
gets. A big drop in weight will not compensate for a lack of class. In fact, a lack of class will
cancel out a number of positive factors in a horse’s favour.
There is no doubt though that weight differences affect the outcome of horse races and weight
can play a more crucial part in some types of races and not so in others. It has often been said
that weight will not affect two year olds and that they can carry huge weights and still continue
their winning form yet older horses are unable to do this. Weight differences play a major part
over the longer distances than in the sprint races. Try carrying something heavy and see how far
you can walk without stopping for a rest. See what I mean? Now you can understand why 5 and

6 furlong races are often won by the top weight.
The winter time when the tracks are heavy is when weight will really stop a train that is because
it is more difficult for horses to carry weight than at other times of the year. The trainers know
this because it is the time of the year when they give the apprentices a go and make use of their
3 or 4 kilo claim. Many a successful apprentice has launched their career with a “bang” during
the winter months with some of them partnering with up and coming young horses to string
together 3 or 4 wins on the same horse. That 3 or 4 kilo claim can mean the difference between
winning and finishing second or third for some horses.
Fillies and mares and three year olds racing against the older horses can be affected by the
weight compared to the other horses in the race. As you may well be aware in a weight-for-age
race, the fillies and mares and the three-year-olds get a weight allowance from the older horses
and males. These weight differences reflect the stages of development of the horses though not
the ability which is really the punter’s job.
A big drop in weight can result in a horse’s improvement in form, a fit well-weighted horse is
usually very competitive.
FACTOR THREE-CLASS
This is the most difficult factor to quantify for the simple reason that class is the result of a
combination of factors such as going, the distance, course, etc. A high class horse will not
automatically beat a lower class horse. A horse may be considered the “class” horse of the field
but unless it has conditions to suit or is not fit then it will not win, as in human sport where a
champion who has been off the scene due to injury can be beaten by a less experienced player
who trained hard and is in form.
Class has two meanings in horse racing, the conditions of the race we call class and the ability of
the horse compared to his/her competitors.
A disadvantage in class can cancel out the advantage of other factors a horse has in its favour
and an advantage in class can overcome a number of negative factors.
Class does not stay constant. Some horses may rise to a higher class level than the previous
season while others do not achieve the same class level as in the past.
The easiest way to determine whether a horse is going up or down in class is to check the prize
money each horse raced for last time out because more often than not, the rule is; THE HIGHER
THE PRIZE MONEY THE HIGHER THE CLASS.
In all codes of horse racing whether that be flat racing, national hunt, harness racing, or
greyhounds there is a class system with each code having its own class system. At the bottom of

the class system are maidens which are horses or greyhounds that have never won a race. As
they move up the classes competition is stronger. Group one is the highest class level and only
the elite animals manage to win these races. Group two and Group three races are slightly
easier to win, then there are listed races. These are known as black type races or in the UK
Pattern races.
We can find some likely winners by taking note of what type of races each horse has been racing
in and compare it to today’s race. On some occasions we may spot a horse running in a
non-black type race (A race that is not a group or listed event) that has been racing in group and
listed events and that has never been beaten in a non-black-type race. These horses will not
necessarily go off at odds on; many of them have been around the $4 or $5 mark.
A horse may appear in a race to be a class above its rival based on past performances but it
does not follow that the race is a foregone conclusion especially if there are other factors which
suggest it may not be as good a bet as the racing public believe. If a particular horse is not ready
to win today, then he or she will not be ready to use their class and is likely to be beaten by a
horse of lesser ability that is fit and in form. This situation occurs in virtually every kind of sport.
FACTOR FOUR-DISTANCE
The distance of the race is a factor which so many punters overlook resulting in burned fingers.
Unless your selection has won at the distance of the race then you are really just taking it on
trust but the going can be a determining factor in each horse’s ability to win at a particular
distance. A horse may be able to win at a particular distance on a slow track but not have the
pace to win at that same distance on top of the ground. That same horse may be good enough
to win over the longer distances on a firm track.
A horse’s past record is the best guideline as to its future potential to win at the distance of the
race and unless it has done so then you are taking it on trust. Progressive three year olds can
win at a distance at the first time of asking. How a horse ran at a particular distance throws up
more clues as to how it is likely to perform at a different distance in the future than where it
finished. If a horse keeps running on strongly during the closing stages of its races then it is said
to be “crying out for more ground”, in other words it is looking for longer distances. Don’t be
confused with a plodder with limited ability however. It can often be good policy to discard
those horses that have a lot of experience at a particular distance and to try and single out
those horses that are improving.
Some horses are quite versatile and can win over various distances. The varying nature of race
courses can have a bearing on a horse’s ability to win at a particular distance. For example, a
mile at Trentham may require the stamina of a middle distance horse especially on a muddy
track while a horse that is able to win at the shorter distances on a testing track can extend its

winning distance range on a less testing course. The problem can arise when some horses only
race well on courses with certain characteristics so some homework in this matter is necessary.
A horse’s stage of preparation can also have a bearing on its ability to perform well at a
particular distance. You may be aware that many stayers sprint well fresh but with each race in a
new campaign, many horses require longer distances in order to perform at their best until they
reach their ultimate distance. It is not unusual to see horses that start off their campaign with a
6 furlong race then next time out race at 7 furlongs, then race at a mile in their third race of the
season. It is even more difficult for a horse that races at a shorter distance than last time out.
Such a horse will simply not be sharp enough to perform at its best. The sharper horses will
have opened up a lead before the stayers have got wound up.
The form guides contain statistics of every horse at the distance. D (1-1-0) means that the horse
has raced once at the distance for one win. The more starts a horse has had, the more likely you
are to know what distance range that it performs best at. If a horse has raced 20 times and
never won at the distance it is racing at today, then any thinking punter has a right to be very
skeptical of its winning chances irrespective of the horse’s recent form.
FACTOR FIVE-GENDER
A horse’s gender can be a major factor in the outcome of horse races and is a factor that is
basically ignored by so many punters. A fact that punters may be unaware of is that the majority
of races are won by males, so much for equality of the sexes. There is an old adage in racing that
you do not hear so much these days “A good colt will beat a good filly”. Now before you go on
about great mares of the past such as Sunline and Makybe Diva, I am speaking about the
average horses. You may be aware of the weight-for-age scale where the fillies and mares are
given an allowance from the males and this allowance is greater during the first half of the
season. In August, a male horse aged 5 and over carries 58 ½ kilos while a female five and over
carries 56 kilos. The weight differences vary depending on the time of the year and the distance
of the race. The weight-for-age scale reflects the advantages the males have over the females in
horse racing.
Many fillies and mares race best during the autumn and early winter. This is because they are
often in season during the spring and summer months therefore be wary of any female horse
that has won all of its races during the latter part of previous seasons and is racing during the
springtime. Horses are a creature of habit and a certain pattern of form will likely repeat itself
during a horse’s racing career.
There are certain circumstances when mares can suddenly show an improvement in form. One
of these is when she is in foal but unless your form guide has this information listed then you
are likely to be kept in the dark of this fact.

The fillies and mares that are up to group and listed level tend to get more opportunity for black
type form. This is when they win or finish in a place in a group or listed race. Owners are keen
for their fillies and mares to win a group or listed race because it enhances her value as a
broodmare. Owners of well-bred entries are even keener to win black type for their horses
because while mares can only produce one foal per year, an entire can leave 100+ foals which
mean owners can make more money from stud fees. Is it any wonder that some entries after
several group one successes are rushed off to stud because a loss of form can reduce his
popularity as a stallion? This can only mean the reduction in the ranks of genuine group one
horses making it easier for the mares and the horses of lesser ability to win their share of good
races.
The trick is finding mares to back which have shown above average ability in their recent racing.
A mare at the top of her form can string several wins together while one that is not in the mood
can really cost punters plenty. Try to ascertain at what time of the year she usually wins and you
could save a lot of money by giving her a wide berth during the months when she does not
normally win.
FACTOR SIX-THE COURSE
The “Horses for courses” factor is almost as old as racing itself. Countless betting systems that
are based on the horses for courses factor have been devised over the years with variable levels
of success. Many of the systems may differ as far as the rules are concerned but the common
denominator is the horses for courses rule.
There is no doubt that some horses have developed a real liking for some courses and a disliking
for others. Each horse’s form figures will give you some clues as to its ability on certain courses.
Why is this?
Some horses you may be aware prefer the left handed tracks while others prefer the right
handed way going and some can stage a reversal of form when switching a left handed track to
a right handed one and vice versa. One horse that has won all of its races the right handed way
around is Sakhee’s Soldier. He won three group races last season, all at Ellerslie. Note those
horses that are making a left handed or right handed switch then research their form line on the
internet. You can sometimes latch on to a very nice priced winner.
The more starts horses have had the more likely you are to know as to its likes and dislikes when
it comes to factors such as the courses. Veterans however can find it a struggle to regain past
glories so it pays to exercise caution when considering the older horses and not be swayed by
their impressive course record and nothing else.
Backing horses that won last time out on the course and distance can be a system worth

following. A large number of horses that fit these simple criteria have won in the past.
The form guides will indicate each horse’s course performances with something like C (2-1-0)
which means the horse has raced twice on the course for one win and no places. I think you
have to be wary of horses with form such as C (2-0-0) which means the horse has raced twice
for no wins and no places. This could be an indication that the horse is not suited to the course.
There are always mitigating circumstances for the unplaced effort such as racing out of its class
or in unsuitable going, on the other hand when a horse has stats such as C (1-1-0) which
indicates that the horse has raced just once on the course for one win then it is often a good bet
especially if it won last time out.
It is most important though not to base your selection solely on the horse’s past course record
to the exclusion of all other factors. A horse may have an impressive record on the course but is
it up to the class? Can it handle the prevailing going? Is it running at its favourite distance? Etc.
each horse’s course record is just part of a sometimes difficult puzzle that you as a punter have
to solve.
FACTOR SEVEN-THE GOING
The state of the ground otherwise called “the going” is another important consideration. Some
horses handle different types of going while others favour certain types only. The going types
are fast, good, dead, slow, and heavy. There are several variations of these types of going. A
slow track at Te Rapa may be different from a slow track at say Ellerslie. It is important therefore
that you stay on the ball and keep your eyes and ears open, especially comments made by the
horse’s connections regarding the going their horse favours.
The weather can become very changeable during the spring and summer months, and even
autumn many punters have been caught out badly and ended up doing their dough. The going
starts off as good but then the rains come during the afternoon and your selection which you
selected for a good track but is useless in the wet finishes down the track. If this happens to you
then my advice is to take it on the chin and maybe have a crack on the horse next time it runs.
The odds will likely be a lot better next time.
The form guides will provide the information on each horse’s stats in different types of going. A
horse really needs to have at least three runs on a particular going type before you can
ascertain whether or not it is favoured by that type of going. The connections of the horse will
more likely frame the horse’s racing itinerary to coincide with the time of the year and the part
of the country where their horse (s) will most likely strike conditions to suit. It is very unlikely
that a trainer with a horse he knows that is useful in wet conditions will target the West Coast
New Year circuit knowing that the going on the Coast is usually slow or heavy. The same goes for
those horses that are adept in very heavy conditions and nothing else. It is very unlikely that

trainers of these mudlarks will aim for the major summer carnivals.
The form guides will indicate each horse’s record in different going types. This will look
something like this;
SHELFORD G (13-2-4)) D (5-0-4) S (0) H (0)
It is quite obvious that Shelford does not handle wet tracks because he has not even raced in
slow or heavy going in 18 race starts. Going by these stats, his preferred going type is good.
A formula can be used to calculate each horse’s preference for a particular going type and it
goes like this; Say the going type is good then you take the total number of places in the going
(good) then multiply by 100 then divide that figure by the horse’s total number of places. In
Shelford’s case, it would be 6 X 100 = 600 divided by 10 = 60 therefore 60% of Shelford’s
placings (1st
, 2nd
, or 3rd
) were on good going.
FACTOR EIGHT-CONSISTENCY
Some horses can be relied on to run well and give you a good run for your money irrespective of
the going and other factors while others only win once in a blue moon then a week or two after
winning at long odds will run down the track leaving a lot of punters out of pocket. Some
serious punters will not back a horse unless they have won at least 20% of its career starts, that
is at least one win in every five starts. It is hard for horses to maintain this kind of win rate
throughout their career and you will find that older horses have a lower winning percentage as
they have reached their limit.
A horse that is not earning any money for its owners is not going to earn any money for us
either so it will save you a fortune in the long run to restrict your betting to those horses with a
reasonable winning record. The trick is to not be carried away by all the hype surrounding a
winning performance. One horse may be dominant one day and the next be beaten by one of
last week’s also rans. It’s all a matter of taking each race on its merits.
The form guides display each horse’s racing record in terms of the number of starts, number of
wins, and number of places. Here is Kawi’s prior to him staring in the Manawatu Challenge
Stakes;
(19-8-6-1) 19 starts, 8 wins, 6 seconds, and 1 third Prize money won; 362k
This is a very good record but I want to have a look at another horse in the same race, Hayley
Maree. Her record is (9-5-1-0) 9 starts for 5 wins, 1 second, and 0 thirds. Prize money won 65k
Sounds impressive? Well, all of her wins have been on non-city tracks apart from winning at

Dunedin two starts back. Kawi has won on average $19,000 per start while Haylee Maree has
won $7,222 per start. Using the formula of dividing total prize money by the number of starts
can give you some perspective of form. Of course even this formula has its flaws because a
horse may have won a lot of money two or three seasons ago and has been out of form since
but taking just the current season’s form into consideration can be more accurate. In the
Manawatu Challenge Stakes, Kawi has won the highest rated race during the current season
(Group one), Tomorrowland (listed) is the only other horse in the race to have won a Black Type
or Pattern race this season.
The race was won by Kawi with Mighty Soloman second, Tomorrowland third, and Haylee
Maree Fourth. As they say don’t be misled by a high win rate especially if it was acquired in
cheap races.
You can certainly improve your chances of success by restricting your betting to horses with a
winning record of at least 20%, even better if you select a 50%-win rate but you will find few
horses to bet on once other criteria are applied.
FACTOR NINE-THE JOCKEY
A winning horse/rider combination can be a lethal one and can be worth following. As they say
with a cricket or rugby team that is in winning form, “Why change a winning team?” Do this
quick survey. Note the number of last race winners that won from last Saturday then note how
many of them were ridden by the same rider as the previous race. Get my point?
Then why on earth would a trainer change a winning formula? Here are some reasons;
1 The horse may have raced in a handicap where the trainer decided to make use of an
apprentice allowance in order to reduce its weight and now the horse races in a weight-for-age
event.
2 Jockeys can be injured or suspended
3 The jockey may be riding at a different venue from where the horse is racing.
4 The horse may be going up in grade and as a consequence carries a much lighter weight which
its previous winning jockey cannot manage to get down.
5 There may be more than one horse in the race that the jockey rode at their last race.
6 The horse a certain jockey rode to victory last time out may have been a catch ride and the
stable he or she normally rides for has a horse in the same race
It has been said that 10% of a horse’s winning performance is down to the jockey. If that is true
then you can improve your chances another 10% by backing the top jockeys. I am not saying

that blindly backing jockeys is the way to go. Far from it but if your selection is ridden by a top
jockey then it is a big help.
There is no doubt though that many horses are backed shorter than they should be due to the
rider and this is an opportunity for smart punters to find value, that is if you have the courage to
go against the crowd and bet on a less popular jockey.
A good jockey tip could be when a particular rider has forgone several potential winning rides in
their own area to ride somewhere else. Another one is when a jockey travels a long way just for
one ride.
Jumping on the bandwagon of an inform claiming apprentice can lead you to many winners but
it is not a good idea to back them in non-claiming races because if say a 3 kilo claimer is riding in
a race where there are no allowances then technically their mount is carrying 3 kilos
overweight.
FACTOR TEN-FORM
This is the factor that is used by virtually every punter who placed a bet. Form if used properly
can lead you to a stack of winners but it can cause you to lose a fortune if relied on too heavily.
Every horse or sports person reaches that condition of wellness when they perform at their
peak fitness. At other times the form is not so hot. Sports teams do not consist of the same
players throughout the season. Some team members lose form or are injured and are replaced
by others.
Recent forms are more reliable than weeks or months old. It is certainly not wise to assume that
just because a horse was in form 6 months ago that he or she will retain that same form in
subsequent starts. That would be unrealistic. Trainers tend to target certain race meetings and
circuits with their horses and previous races are used as prep races.
It is important not to take all forms on face value because a horse that finishes a close up sixth
may be a better bet than a horse that finishes second or third some six lengths behind the
winner.
Form is a result of a number of factors such as class, going, distances, conditioning, weight, etc.
If a horse is fit, then it will likely develop a good form line providing other factors are in its
favour.
A fit horse with a light weight is usually very competitive but one factor that is often overlooked
by punters is how a horse ran its last race. If a horse finished on strongly last time out and
gained ground in the straight, then it may require an extra furlong or so to be at its best but by
no means rule out any horse that finished on strongly at its last race and is running at the same

distance today. It may be a natural back runner.
Then you will sometimes find a horse that raced at a distance further than its preference and
ran out of steam. Such a horse may regain winning form if dropped back to a shorter distance.
Conditioning and wellbeing is the number one contributing factor to good form with the going
at number two. Most horses have a particular type of going where they are able to perform at
their best. There are those rare animals that are able to win irrespective of the ground but
horses do fail when racing in their favourite type of going and at their favourite distance or
track. This is because no horse will be in form throughout the season. Some of their races will
be what is known as prep races. This means their trainers will use particular races as a final tune
up to the races they have targeted. The trick is to identify what these target races are.
FACTOR ELEVEN-FORM PATTERN
Each horse will develop a pattern of behaviour during its racing career and this pattern will keep
repeating itself. It’s the old adage “leopards do not change their spots”
This form pattern will develop according to the type of races each horse is entered for in
conjunction with other factors. You may be well aware that black type racing attracts the best
horses, not only because of the higher prize money on offer but because success in these races
can enhance the value of horses that will be used for breeding later on. It is not uncommon for
horses to have an excellent formline prior to being entered for a group or listed race only for it
to spoil its impressive formline with an unplaced run. Special note should be taken of these
horses because they often return to the winner’s circle next time they start in a race that does
not carry black type status. Here is an example;
Nonblack type race formline 11 Black type formline 534
Now and again you will come across horses that have raced in group and listed races and have
never finished out of the money in races that do not have black type status.
A good form pattern can also develop on particular courses. Once the horse has shown a liking
for a particular course, the horse’s trainer will often target races at this course. One perfect
example is the West Coast Racing circuit. Duffers Creek has form figures of 111X133X21 on West
Coast courses. His Stablemates Over The Overtheriver has X11 X11 and Gold Allure 11X X1
Another stablemate of those horses mentioned is Caramac. She has never been beaten in races
worth less than $20,000. She is also unbeaten on West Coast courses.
Many horses have good form on trips away from their home base because their trainers would

never travel a long way unless they had a good chance of winning. Their form in such races is
very good.
Another form pattern you may or may not be aware of is that certain horses perform very well
on a 7 day back-up. Their form line when you consider just their races when they are in this
state is often very good and not so others.
Some horses develop a good form pattern on the same course where today’s race is taking
place. Consider only the current season’s form and take note of the form on the course only. It
will give you another angle to explore when analyzing each race.
Finding out each horse’s form pattern can lead you to many winners and some of them at very
nice odds because most punters only consider recent form and overlook a horse that may have
won on the course three or four starts ago but then finished out of the money since.
FACTOR TWELVE-AGE
A horse’s age is a factor that many punters seem to ignore. Horses of a certain age are
disadvantaged when racing against other age groups so let’s examine the various age groups.
Two-year-olds or the babies as they are often called race against their own age group apart from
the rare occasions when their trainers will pit them against the older horses. Form tends to be
more consistent with this age but I am not all that keen on backing 2-year-olds however
because they are usually at short prices.
The three year olds are still inexperienced and developing and often finds it difficult to win
against the older horses especially during the first half of the season when they are
disadvantaged as far as the handicapping is concerned but they get an opportunity against their
own age group with three-year-old only races being scheduled on most programs. Three year
olds that race in group and listed races will often win when reverting to unlisted races during
the latter part of the season though and will often beat the older horses lower in the lower
grades.
The four year olds are where the money can be made in racing. The rate of improvement in
horses from three to four can be quite dramatic and some horses that found it difficult against
their own age group in group and listed races will end up being a group one winner at four. Note
those four year olds that raced in the group and listed races at three. Many of them may not
have been quite good enough to gain a place but finished just behind the placegetters and
started their four-year-old season low down in the grades. Such a horse can win two or three
races within a short time and many of them will be good enough to win the group and listed
handicaps.

The five year olds shouldn’t pose any problems. By the time they have reached this age group,
they will have normally developed their own pattern of behaviour such as the ability to win first
or second up, etc. Some mares who showed good form at three, had an off season at four will
come back and have a good five-year-old season.
The six year olds and over horses sometimes lose their enthusiasm for racing but that all
depends on the horse and a handful of them have shown a new lease of life with a change of
trainer or routine. Most horses once they become six tend to become less consistent and often
take one or two extra runs to bring them into peak fitness. Note any of these horses that are on
a seven-day back up and consider them a chance if they have won on a seven day back up
previously.
I don’t think you should discard a horse because of its age though without considering all of the
other all-important factors.
FACTOR THIRTEEN-TRAINERS
What you know about the trainers and their patterns can make you money. They seem to be
able to target certain races for their horses and some are very successful at it too. Certain races
are used as prep races prior to their main mission. If you are able to pin point which races are
target races, then this will be to your advantage. As will knowing what the trainer’s past record
with such horses is. The trainer may have had other horses in the race in previous years and
knowing how his/her horses prepare for big races is a help. Some trainers have a good record in
certain races which they tend to target.
Following Trainer/Jockey combinations can be profitable under certain circumstances. A stable
may have two or three runners in the same race. The stable rider will usually get the pick of the
rides which is a tip in itself but now and again a stable will elect to put a claiming apprentice on
one of their horses in order to reduce the weight it carries.
Another clue a trainer will leave you is if he has two horses in the same race and he scratches
one of them. It will sometimes win at a very nice price.
Following trainers in form can give you lots of winners. If you are able to jump on the
bandwagon at the right time, then you will back a lot of winners. Certain trainers tend to have
their horses fit and in form at the same time every year.
Distances can also provide some clues. Take note of the winners of trainers at certain distances
and you may well discover a pattern where the trainer will use the same method for preparing
each of the winners at the distance. Take a mile for instance, many trainers will give their animal
a run at 1200 metres (6 furlongs) prior to starting their horse at a mile. That is the type of

pattern I am speaking of here.
Following trainers can be profitable in the right type of circumstances but following trainers
blindly will lead to long term loss. Even the best trainers cannot work miracles. Once the horse
is in the starting gates ready to race, the final outcome is beyond his or her control. It is now
down to horse and rider and often it is the rider who has to be the scapegoat for the horse’s
failure whether or not it was but there is no law to say that a 100/1 horse is not allowed to win,
that it was makes the racing game as exciting as it is.
So keep an eye out for patterns that certain trainers develop and you may well latch on to
several winners.
EVERY DAY SYSTEM
Rules;
1-Last race not more than fourteen days ago
2-Finished within three lengths of the winner last start
3-Placed first, second, or third in at least 50% of its career starts.
THREE-YEAR-OLD SYSTEM
Back all three-year-olds that have won within the previous fifteen days.
THE ONE HORSE PER MEETING SYSTEM
Back the last race winner who won by the biggest margin.
BEATEN FAVOURITE SYSTEM (1)
Back every last race beaten favourite who has finished 1, 2, or 3 in at least 75% of its career

starts
One of my favourites is to back every last start beaten favourite in heavy going.
Back the last race beaten favorite who has who raced most recently.
CATCH 22 SYSTEM
Back every horse with form 22 who finished not more than half-a-length from the winner last
time out.
FORGIVE ONE BAD RUN SYSTEM
Back every horse who has finished 1, 2, or 3 in at least 80% of its career race starts but finished
out of the money last time out.
SEVEN-DAY BACK UP SYSTEM (1)
Back any horse whose last race was within the previous 8 days and it has won at least 50% of its
career starts.
SEVEN-DAY-BACKUP SYSTEM (2)
Back any horse on a 7-day backup who last raced at the same course and distance.
GROUP ONE FORM
Back every horse who last raced at Group one level last time out. (Current season only).
Preference is usually for the horse with the better strike rate.

Winning factors 2021

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Winning factors 2021

Similar to Winning factors 2021 (19)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Winning factors 2021