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Betfair triple system

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Betfair triple system

  1. 1. No part of this guide may be reproduced or resold without express permission of the author. Copyright © K J Platt 2005 1
  2. 2. IntroductionBetfair is the leading betting exchange and offers significant advantages overtraditional bookmakers:1. You can bet that an outcome will happen (back) at consistently better prices thanwith a traditional bookmaker.2. You can bet that an event won’t happen (lay).3. You can choose the odds you want to play at.4. You can bet during an event when it is ‘in-play’.All bets on Betfair have been placed there by users who either want to have a bet inthe normal way (back), or offer odds to other punters (lay). Bets are matchedbetween people with opposing views.In this guide I share with you the three ways that I consistently make profits usingBetfair.Open a new Betfair Account - £20 freeNaturally you will need to open an account with Betfair if you are not already a user.Even if you are already a user, it will be helpful to open a separate account to enableyou to easily measure the success of using this system. By entering a ‘refer andearn’ code on the sign-up page you will receive £20 free in your account once youhave earned 50 Betfair points (after you have won or lost a total of £100).Open an account with any amount you wish. In each section of this guide I suggest a‘bank’ you could work with – although you can make decent profits starting with just£100. My bank is usually around the £2000 mark and that enables me to make themost of every opportunity.Use the link below to open the Betfair website and type the code below very carefullyin the ‘refer and earn’ box on the sign-up form to ensure you receive your free £20.Click here to visit the Betfair websiteThe ‘Refer and Earn’ code to input: KFEULQDQG 2
  3. 3. Getting to Know BetfairIf you are a new Betfair user, the interface can look quite daunting at first glance.However it really is quite simple to use. An excellent tutorial is provided on theBetfair website and shows you exactly how to place ‘back’ and ‘lay’ bets.I strongly suggest that as a new user you become familiar with the basic functionsbefore attempting to place any ‘real money’ bets. Within the betfair.com site, click on‘Help’ and then ‘View Our Demo’.Odds FormatAll prices on the Betfair website are shown in European decimal format.Decimal odds express your total return for the stake you place. Therefore evenmoney is expressed as 2.0 - you get back your initial stake plus the same again aswinnings - twice your initial stake.To help you get used to the decimal odds format, a handy guide is printed on thefollowing page. The decimal system is very simple once you get used to it. 3
  4. 4. Odds Conversion Table Fractional Decimal American 10/1 11.00 $1,000.00 9/1 10.00 $900.00 17/2 9.50 $850.00 8/1 9.00 $800.00 15/2 8.50 $750.00 7/1 8.00 $700.00 13/2 7.50 $650.00 6/1 7.00 $600.00 11/2 6.50 $550.00 5/1 6.00 $500.00 9/2 5.50 $450.00 4/1 5.00 $400.00 18/5 4.60 $360.00 7/2 4.50 $350.00 100/30 4.333 $333.33 16/5 4.20 $320.00 3/1 4.00 $300.00 14/5 3.80 $280.00 11/4 3.75 $275.00 13/5 3.60 $260.00 5/2 3.50 $250.00 12/5 3.40 $240.00 95/40 3.375 $237.50 23/10 3.30 $230.00 9/4 3.25 $225.00 11/5 3.20 $220.00 85/40 3.125 $212.50 21/10 3.10 $210.00 2/1 3.00 $200.00 19/10 2.90 $190.00 15/8 2.875 $187.50 9/5 2.80 $180.00 7/4 2.75 $175.00 17/10 2.70 $170.00 13/8 2.625 $162.50 8/5 2.60 $160.00 4
  5. 5. 6/4 2.50 $150.00 7/5 2.40 $140.00 11/8 2.375 $137.5013/10 2.30 $130.00 5/4 2.25 $125.00 6/5 2.20 $120.0011/10 2.10 $110.0021/20 2.05 $105.00 1/1 2.00 -$100.0020/21 1.952 -$105.0010/11 1.909 -$110.00 9/10 1.90 -$111.10 5/6 1.833 -$120.00 4/5 1.80 -$125.00 8/11 1.727 -$137.50 7/10 1.70 -$142.90 4/6 1.667 -$150.00 5/8 1.625 -$160.00 8/13 1.615 -$162.50 3/5 1.60 -$166.70 4/7 1.571 -$175.00 8/15 1.533 -$187.50 1/2 1.50 -$200.0040/85 1.471 -$212.50 9/20 1.45 -$222.20 4/9 1.444 -$22500 2/5 1.40 -$250.00 4/11 1.364 -$275.00 7/20 1.35 -$285.70 1/3 1.333 -$300.0030/100 1.30 -$333.30 2/7 1.286 -$350.00 1/4 1.25 -$400.00 2/9 1.222 -$450.00 1/5 1.20 -$500.00 5
  6. 6. Safety First!Before implementing any of the techniques in this guide I would urge you to adherethe following guidance.1. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose.2. Never be greedy. Be happy to take small gains – it all adds up.3. Bet very small stakes to start with until you are comfortable with each technique. Itis better to learn a lot from a cheap mistake than learn little from a huge mistake.It is not necessary to use all the three methods described in this guide as eachsystem works independently. I do suggest, however, that you keep track of yourmoney, either by maintaining a record of your profits from each method or by openingseparate Betfair accounts.The three methods in this guide are: Identifying races where the ‘favourite’ is extremely Lay the Losers likely to lose and then ‘laying’ these horses before the race starts. Backing and laying a horse in the minutes before a Trading race starts to lock in a profit regardless of the race outcome. Backing a horse to win for a small profit just before it In-Play Betting crosses the winning line or ‘laying’ a horse during a race when is has no chance of winning. 6
  7. 7. Lay the LosersThe key to this system is to identify races where the ‘favourite’ is extremely likely tolose and then ‘lay’ these horses before the race starts. We are looking for losers!When you ‘lay’ a horse, you are effectively acting as a bookmaker and taking a betfrom a punter. Say the price of the horse is 3.1 and you lay the horse for £5, you aretaking a bet of £5 from a ‘backer’. When you lay a horse then effectively all the otherhorses in the race are running for you.If the horse loses you keep the £5. Should the horse win your liability would be £5 x3.1 = £15.50 less the stake money of £5 = £10.50. You stood to win £5 if the horselost or lose £10.50 if the horse won.A long-term study reveals that only around 20% of ‘favourites’ win races on average.Very rarely will more than 40% of favourites win on any given day. This is a goodbasis to start from because we will naturally get more ‘losers’ than ‘winners’, althoughit depends on the prices of the winners whether we make a profit or not.To make a reliable profit we must identify which ‘favourites’ have a much higherprobability of losing. Note that we are only interested in ‘favourites’ (the shortestpriced horse on the race card). It would be easy to pick horses priced at 50 or abovebecause they do have a high probability of losing – the trouble is that they are alsovery expensive to pay out on when they do win!Step 1: Examine the Race CardsThis can be done online via the Racing Post well in advance of a days racing. Theirwebsite is:www.racingpost.co.ukIf you have not used the site before you will need to ‘register’, which is free, to obtaina user name and password. This will allow you to gain access to the data you need.On the Racing Menu down the left side of the screen click on ‘Cards’ and then clickon the day in question. You will be presented with a list of races for the main racemeeting for the day selected. You can also access the lists for the other racemeetings by clicking on a different venue. These are listed down the right hand sideof the screen – you will need to scroll down to see them – and are listed under theheading ‘Other Meetings’.To view a race card simply click on the name of the race adjacent to the race time: 7
  8. 8. Above is the race card for the 1:30 at Huntingdon.Use the race card to check the number of horses running. If there are 10 or morerunners then look for the name of the ‘favourite’. The favourite is the horse that hasthe lowest price and is mentioned first in the betting forecast. In the above exampleyou can see that the favourite is ‘Irish Wolf’. If the race qualifies then proceed to step2, otherwise look at another race.A race will only qualify for this system if there are 10 or more runners.Step 2: Check the Racing Post RatingsThe right-hand column on the Race Card is headed ‘RPR’ which is short for RacingPost Rating. This is an indication of a horses ability.We are only interested in the race if at least 3 other horses are no lower than 10points below the favourite. In addition we can remain interested in thefavourite if it is unrated.You can see in the above example that the favourite, Irish Wolf, has a rating of 130,and 9 other runners have ratings no lower than 10 points below Irish Wolf. If the racequalifies then proceed to step 3, otherwise look at another race. 8
  9. 9. Step 3: Check the TipstersBy clicking on the ‘Selections’ graphic underneath the Race Card you can bring up alist of tipsters and their selections for the race as shown below…We are looking for a clear sign that the favourite is unfancied by the majority oftipsters. Check how many tipsters have selected the favourite. Also check howmany tipsters have NOT selected the favourite and instead have chosen a differentrunner.If the number of selections NOT involving the favourite outnumbers the selections forthe favourite then make a note of the race time, location, the name of the horse andforecast price for use in the minutes before the race.You can see above that 6 tipsters have selected Irish Wolf whereas 9 tipsters haveselected other runners.Step 4: Check the Price MovementsThis step can only be carried out five minutes before the race starts. Log into yourBetfair account and navigate to the race in question. You will be presented with thestandard screen showing the current prices for each horse.We are essentially looking to ‘follow the money’ at this point. Huge sums are bet inthe few minutes before a race and this is often a good indicator of how a horse islikely to perform for a variety of reasons.By clicking on the favourites name in Betfair you can view a graph representing theprice history of the horse for that particular race. We are not really concerned withthe left hand half of the graph, as volatile trading takes place on Betfair when a race 9
  10. 10. is first listed until the market finds a level.The right half of the graph will show us what has happened in the minutes leading upto the race. If a horse has been heavily backed the price on the horse will havereduced and the graph will be trending downwards. If this has happened thenobviously the horse must be looking good to win and we should therefore leave italone.If the right half of the graph is trending upwards then obviously the horse is now evenmore un-fancied and you should proceed to step 5. You can see in the examplebelow that the price has Irish Wolf has risen in the minutes before the race, fromaround 4.3 to 5.5. The right hand side of the graph is trending upwards and we candefinitely proceed.The final scenario is if the graph is ‘trading sideways’ and is neither trending up ordown. The price will be remaining fairly constant. This means the jury is out on thishorse and we should proceed with caution. If the ‘back price’ is higher than the priceon the Racing Post Race Card then proceed to step 5 and halve your stake,otherwise leave the horse alone.Step 5: Laying the Horse 10
  11. 11. Only place the lay bet if the price on the horse is less than or equal to 6. We are notin the business of paying out huge sums on the odd selection that does win!If all the above criteria are met then you can place the lay bet. Please refer to thestaking guidance below in order to manage your funds well.StakingThe above criteria details how to select the horses to lay. The other vital part of thesystem is managing your money so that you do not put yourself at undue risk.Set aside a betting bank for use with this system. I suggest opening a separateBetfair account for this purpose – see page 2. I suggest betting only 1% of your bankon each selection. This means that if your bank is £500 then you will only take a laybet of £5 per selection.If the horse was ‘trading sideways’ as described in step 4 then only bet 0.5% of yourbank.In this way your bank will increase by 1% on most races, and as we have set a pricelimit of 6 your maximum liability will be 5% of your bank on the occasional race wherethe horse unexpectedly wins. Naturally your stakes adjust as your bank increasesand therefore you benefit from exponential growth.I suggest trying the system on paper for at least 2 weeks before placing any realmoney bets to demonstrate just how many winning bets this system will select foryou.It has been my experience that I can usually select 3 or 4 races per day that qualifyfor the system. After 2 weeks you will be able to see how much money the systemwould make you and you will be ready to play for real.I am pleased to report that ‘Irish Wolf’ did lose the race used in our example asshown on the next page... 11
  12. 12. Summary of the Lay the Losers SystemCheck the race has at least 10 runners and identify the favourite on the racecard.Check the Racing Post Ratings (RPR) to ensure at least 3 other horses are nolower than 10 points below the favourite.Check the ‘Selections’ to ensure the total number of tips for other runners isgreater than the number of tips for the favourite.Finally, check the graph on Betfair 5 minutes before the race starts. If the priceis drifting lay the horse for 1% of your bank. If the horse is ‘trading sideways’then lay the horse for 0.5% of your bank if the price is greater than forecast onthe Race Card.The maximum price to lay at is 6. 12
  13. 13. TradingThe aim of trading on horse racing is simply to engineer a guaranteed profit before arace starts, regardless of the outcome of the race. This is usually achieved in 2stages:1) Backing and laying the race favourite (where your average back price is higherthan your average lay price). This creates a ‘free bet’ situation where you gain if thefavourite wins the race and lose nothing if the favourite does not win.2) Laying the favourite to spread the gain across all runners. This is sometimesreferred to a ‘greening up’ and means you will make a profit regardless of the raceoutcome.It doesn’t matter which order the backing and laying in stage one takes place. Aslong as you are able to back the horse at a higher price than you lay the horse thenyou make a profit.If the price on a horse is reducing, then you will back first, then lay at a lower pricelater.If the price on a horse is increasing, then you will lay first, then back at a higher pricelater.The key to successful trading is being able to predict the next likely price movementon a horse to enable you to decide whether to back or lay first.This guide aims to show you how to maximise your profits from trading whilstshowing you the exit strategies when prices move in the wrong direction.I only recommend trading on the Betfair website, where there is usually the most‘liquidity’ (money being traded) and therefore the best opportunities for trading. I alsoonly recommend trading on UK horse races, again for liquidity reasons.When to tradeThe time to start trading is the 10 minutes before a race starts when most money ischanging hands. The time you will stop trading is the few seconds before the racestarts. Please ensure your computer clock or wristwatch is set accurately. UK racesnever start early but you need to ensure you ‘close’ your trading position in the fewseconds before the advertised race time. In this way your ‘stake’ will never be atrisk. 13
  14. 14. How much to tradeI suggest using your full bank to trade with an upper bank limit set around £2000.Any higher than this and you can have trouble getting bets matched.You will need to back and lay the horse for the same amount until you are ready to‘green up’ and take your profit. To calculate the amount to back and lay the horse fordivide your bank balance (or £2000 if your bank is higher) by the prevailing lay pricefor the horse minus 1. The round down slightly just in case the price increases.Taking a balance of £2000 and a lay price of 4, you would divide 3 (the price minus1) into 2000 giving a stake of £666. I suggest rounding down to take into account ahorse where the price subsequently increases. I would suggest £600 stake in thiscase. As long as the horse price stays below 4.4 then you will be OK. If the priceincreases to this level you will need to recalculate and reduce your stakes.The reason for this is that Betfair only allow you to commit up to your balance. If youlay a horse for £600 at a price of 4 then your liability if the horse wins is £1800 andyou therefore need to have this amount in your account.You may think that a stake of £600 is a lot to put on a horse. This is true but you arenot betting on the horse. For every ‘lay’ of £600 you will also close your position by‘backing’ the same horse for £600 so that you are never exposed (‘open’) to the riskof losing £600 or £1800 (if you lay first).When you first trade I suggest using minimum stakes of £2. Your profits will beminimal but this is the ideal way to learn and you can increase you stakes as yourconfidence increases.Starting to TradeOpen up the Betfair website and bring up the list of the days races. To do this loginto Betfair and using the menu on the left click on ‘Horse Racing – Todays Card’.Then click on the next UK based race to display the runners.We are only interested in trading on the race favourites (the horses with the lowestprices) because only these horses will have sufficient volumes of money beingtraded. Also we only trade on horses where the price is below 6. This is becausethe price increments on Betfair are too high above this level and the price will not beas volatile. The lower the price on the horse the more favourable the priceincrements are. 14
  15. 15. Price Increments1.01 – 2.00 0.012.00 – 3.00 0.023.00 – 4.00 0.054.00 – 6.00 0.106.00 – 10.00 0.20The GraphA good starting point for trading on a race is to see how the price has been changingin the last few minutes. If you click on the favourites name you can view the graphthat shows the recent price changes. This may give clues as to whether a horse’sprice is trending in any direction.If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving upwards, thisis a good indicator that you may be wanting to lay the horse first, then back shortlyafter at a higher price.If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving downwards,this is a good indicator that you may be wanting to back the horse first, then layshortly after at a lower price.Regardless of the trends shown, we are not going to use the graph as the onlyindicator of the likely next price movement. The graph only represents a historicalprice record. Although trends may continue this is not guaranteed. You can nowclose the graph and start concentrating on the main trading window.At this point you will need to keep refreshing the Betfair window so you can keep upto date with the changing data. The final section of the trading part of this guideprovides you with the ‘tools of the trade’ that can perform this function automaticallyfor you.Weight of MoneyThe other major indicator of the next movement in price is referred to as ‘weight ofmoney’. If you look at the row of data containing the name of the favourite horse, youwill see 3 back prices and 3 lay prices together with the amounts available.At this point in reading this guide you should stop and think about these numbers andwhat they mean. The ‘back’ prices represent people who want to ‘lay’ the horse atthat price. The ‘lay’ prices represent people who want to ‘back’ the horse at thatprice.The ‘weight of money’, more often than not, pushes the price in one direction oranother. 15
  16. 16. If there is more money on the ‘back’ side, then more people wish to ‘lay’ the horsethan back it – this usually leads to the horse drifting (the price increases).If there is more money on the ‘lay’ side, then more people wish to ‘back’ the horsethan lay it – this usually leads to the horse shortening (the price reduces).The ‘weight of money’ takes into account the total of all 3 amounts of moneyavailable on the ‘back’ side compared to the total of all 3 amounts of money availableon the ‘lay’ side.If the ‘back’ side and ‘lay’ side are fairly equal then obviously the price is not likely tobe moving.Making a decision to tradeTrading is all about discipline. Being disciplined means identifying the correct time totrade AND also being able to resist trading when conditions are not right.What we are ideally looking for is:1) The graph showing a trend, up or down. Here we see Consonant on the drift: 16
  17. 17. 2) A ‘weight of money’ situation with a multiplication factor of 2.5 or above i.e. we arereally looking for one side to be at least two and a half times the other side before wecan be fairly certain of movement. The higher the multiplication factor of one sideversus the other then the more likely a price movement is. We also ideally like theweight of money to match the graph trend i.e. a down trending graph to be matchedby high weight of money on the ‘lay’ side and vice-versa.Here we see £1996 on the ‘back’ side and £758 on the ‘lay’ side. This means morepeople wish to lay the horse called ‘Consonant’ and this confirms the price is likely toincrease further. The weight of money factor is 2.63 (1996/758). As the factor is justover 2.5 we can expect a small price increase.3) High liquidity in the market i.e. the total amount of money available to trade on theback and lay sides being in the high hundreds or into the thousands.When conditions are right you need to act quickly to make your trades.Making the tradesIn this case I was laying Consonant first because the indications were that the pricewas increasing. Naturally, if the price appeared to be reducing then I would back firstand then lay at a lower price. I managed to trade 3 times on the horse before‘greening up’ to spread the profit amongst all the runners.As the weight of money factor remained low I was only looking for quick trades withsmall movements in price. Had the factor been higher than 5 then I would have triedto ‘ride the wave’ (explained later).To lay the horse, quickly click on the best available lay price and then input yourstake, which was £50 in this example. In my first trade on this horse I was matchedat a price of 4.4.The next step is to immediately request the ‘back’ price you want. In this case Iclicked on the best available blue ‘back’ price (4.3) and then adjusted the requestedprice to 4.5 and submitted the request. I joined the queue of other punters alsowishing to back the horse at this price (my £50 was added to the ‘lay’ side of theBetfair screen). The bet was matched within a couple of seconds as the price movedin the expected direction. 17
  18. 18. I continued to watch the screen and managed to lay at 4.7 and back at 4.8, then layat 5.6/5.7 and back at 5.7 for a little extra profit.Shortly before the advertised race time I decided to take the profit accrued. To dothis you divide the profit on the horse by the available ‘lay’ price and then ‘lay’ for thisamount.In this case the profit was £15.01. The available lay price was 5.5. I therefore layedthe horse for £2.73. This created a situation where I would gain £3.01 if Consonantwon, or £2.73 if any other horse won. Remember when trading, the actual back/layor lay/back process only takes a few seconds.When you first start trading with small premiums you will not be able to ‘green up’due to the minimum stake being £2 on Betfair. The example below shows how onetrade on ‘Oh Danny Boy’ has created a £5 profit situation IF the horse wins. It isimpossible to spread the profit and ‘green up’ because the required stake would be£5/5.4 = £0.92, well below the minimum. 18
  19. 19. This is therefore a ‘free bet’ situation, where you will win £5 if the horse wins but losenothing if the horse does not win.Riding the WaveIn the above examples the ‘weight of money’ factor was fairly small and therefore Iwas concentrating on making small gains from relatively minor price changes.Sometimes sentiment amongst punters moves firmly for or against a horse shortlybefore a race and this leads fairly large price movements in a short space of time.These situations are opportunities for smart traders to make a lot of money.You will recognise when this happens because the ‘weight of money’ will beoverwhelming in one direction or another perhaps with a factor of 10 or more.When such an opportunity presents itself get on board as soon as possible byplacing your opening back or lay (depending on the direction of movement). Insteadof immediately requesting the opposing bet simply wait and see what happens. Youcan then ‘ride the wave’ until you see the weight of money coming back into balance.The price may change considerably before balance is restored and you then placeyour opposing back or lay bet, locking in a large profit. Unfortunately I have noscreenshots for you of such a situation (because I make the most of these occasionsand don’t waste time taking screenshots). An example of a horse where the price willdrift considerably would look something like: Back Lay 2.62 2.64 2.66 2.68 2.70 2.72 £2354 £1875 £2005 £240 £48 £54In this situation you would quickly lay the horse and then wait for as long as possiblebefore eventually backing at a much higher price when the weight of money comesback into balance.Software to Make Trading EasierTo trade successfully you will need to be able to see the prices and volumesavailable changing every second. You should also be able to place back and laybets quickly.There are two solutions for this:1) Trading using the Betfair website. You can use the ‘Betfair Refresh’ scriptdescribed on page 32 of this guide. This will refresh the screen at the interval youset making trading a lot easier. You will still be stuck with a multi-click bet process 19
  20. 20. however and this will mean you are sometimes too slow and miss a price change youanticipated.Although you can trade successfully using the Betfair website interface you can tradequicker and more successfully using my preferred solution:2) Single click betting software. Please visit the website:http://www.gruss.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/There you can download a free single click ‘Betting Assistant’ program written by aBetfair user. The website also contains a support forum. The advantages of usingthis software are:a) Single click betting on all 3 back and lay prices.b) Continually updated display of prices and volumes.c) Continually updated display of potential profit.d) Option to take profit (‘green up’) with one click.e) Instant colour coded snapshot of the overall weight of money.If you take the time to learn how to use the above software you will be rewarded witha much easier way of trading.I won’t describe how to use the software within this guide because the forum andhelp screens available do this job anyway. I will simply say that once you get usedto the software I guarantee you will never trade via the Betfair interface again. 20
  21. 21. In-Play BettingMany events taking place are turned ‘In-play’ by Betfair, allowing you place ‘back’ or‘lay’ orders while the event in actually taking place. Naturally the prices can changesignificantly during an event according to what is happening on the field of play.The techniques described in this guide can be used for many differing sportingevents e.g. football, rugby, snooker, tennis etc. I am going to use horse racing in allmy examples, simply because a great deal of money changes hands ‘in-play’ onBetfair on UK horse races. Regularly over £100000 worth of bets are ‘matched’ on asingle race and this figure can easily be over £1 million. Please steer of non-UKhorse racing, as often the liquidity during a race is very low leading to pricing thatdoes not reflect a horses’ true chance of winning.You can easily check whether an event will be turned in play by navigating to theevent within the Betfair website and then clicking on ‘Rules’. The paragraphdisplayed will indicate if the event will be turned ‘IN PLAY’.When an event starts all unmatched bets are cancelled and betting is brieflysuspended. Then the event turns ‘In-play’ and betting can commence again. An ‘In-play’ event is indicated by a white tick on a green square with the Betfair interface.I advise watching what happens during a horse race to get familiar with the priceschanging and what is displayed. You will need to keep clicking ‘Refresh’ with theBetfair page to update the prices as the action unfolds. You can click ‘Refresh’ everysecond or so. Betting can take place right up to the finishing post when Betfairsuspend trading on the race.On next page I will describe what you should notice during a horse race…What Happens on the Betfair Screen During the Race1. The race starts – betting is Suspended with all unmatched bets cancelled.2. Betting resumes with new ‘back’ and ‘lay’ orders filling the screen.3. Orders are matched or cancelled as the race unfolds.4. Prices change rapidly – prices shorten (smaller odds) on race leaders andprices increase (greater odds) on slower runners. 21
  22. 22. 5. As horses drift out of the action, or a pulled up or fall, ‘back’ orders are cancelled and it is no longer possible to ‘lay’ the horse. Some ‘layers’ still offer odds of 1000 (999/1) in the hope of attracting a ‘mug punter’.6. Odds on the leaders shorten considerably until the final furlongs.7. If a race has a clear winner approaching the winning post, then the odds on all‘losers’ drift towards 1000. Odds on the ‘winner’ reduce.8. As the winner crosses the line the odds will be 1.01 i.e. a £1 profit to £100stake.9. Betting is again Suspended.By clicking on each horses name after the race you can view details of the last price‘matched’ and a graph of how the price altered on that horse. The prices tell youwhich horse won the race (last price matched usually 1.01 or close to 1.01) and alsoshow the prices rising on the losers to as high as 1000.Making Your ProfitThe system is simple. As the race unfolds you can make money in 2 ways:LAY horses that are definitely NOT GOING TO WIN. The horse may have fallen,been pulled up, unseated its rider or is too far back down the field.BACK the horse that is GOING TO WIN. The horse cannot be caught, has nomore fences to jump, and is running into the last furlong.Now we will look in detail at the processes you need to follow and the factors youneed to be aware of...Using ‘Live’ BroadcastsIt is possible to follow the progress of a race simply by referring to the changingprices within the Betfair site, and I describe later how to bet using only theinformation available on Betfair.However you will make much higher profits if you are able to gain an extra ‘edge’over other punters. For most people, this will mean viewing the event on television orlistening to a radio or internet broadcast.Being able to see, or hear, the action will give you confidence to bet earlier in a race 22
  23. 23. than people looking at prices changing on a screen. This will mean you can eitherget a back or lay order matched where otherwise no bet will be offered, or mean youcan bet at a much higher price.The problem with all broadcasts is that they are not live. Even if the broadcaster istransmitting ‘live’ pictures, the satellite transmission of the images and sound meanssome sort of delay is involved.Even after allowing for this, some broadcasters advertise ‘live’ radio/internetcommentary which is actually deliberately delayed. For example, if you use anybookmakers ‘live’ broadcast you will find they are behind the action by up to 40seconds!The golden rule is to check the delay in any broadcast before betting. By watching orlistening to one race, and monitoring Betfair, you can easily check this. Betfair allowyou to bet right up to the end of the race, therefore if you keep ‘refreshing’ the screenin the closing stages of the race, you can measure the delay between the bettingbeing suspended (the end of the race on Betfair which is the true end of the race)and the end of the race on the broadcast you are tuned into.Better sources of broadcasts include terrestrial television and Sky Channel 415 (AtThe Races). You may eventually decide, like me, that it is simpler to use just thechanging prices on Betfair instead of relying on a broadcast.Betting Using Real-Time InformationThe idea scenario is to be actually present at the event, working on a laptopcomputer. In this way you have no delay as you are witnessing events first hand andcan place bets slightly earlier than people watching on television at home.Another great scenario is to be speaking on the telephone to someone at theracecourse on a mobile telephone who can work with you.By now you should understand that we are trying to either:LAY horses that are definitely NOT GOING TO WIN. The horse may have fallen,been pulled up, unseated its rider or is too far back down the field.BACK the horse that is GOING TO WIN. The horse cannot be caught, has nomore fences to jump, and is running into the last furlong. 23
  24. 24. You should also understand that quicker you can get information on the state of therace the better your bets will be. The choices available to you are:1st Choice: Being present at the racecourse on a laptop computer.2nd Choice: Speaking to a friend who is at the racecourse.3rd Choice: Watching a ‘live’ broadcast or making betting decisions usingonly price data on Betfair.You will make good profits using all of the above methods but the very best pricescan be obtained if you getting your information faster and acting on it faster thanother punters.You should also be mindful of the warnings below:Do not bet unless you are certain of the outcome.If a race is too close to call towards the finish – leave it alone.You do not have to bet on every race.Take the easy profits and leave the ‘gambling’ for the mugsNow for the actual bet process:Backing Horses In PlayThe screenshot below is from Betfair on the 2:20 race at Worcester. The racefinished a fraction of a second later with Allumee the winner.In the final second of a race this is the usual pattern you can expect to see. It is nolonger possible to bet on the winner – no ‘back’ prices are available. All the prices onthe other horses have drifted considerably, some as high as 1000. These prices areoffered by ‘lay’ betters looking for some easy money!You can see on the right panel that a few seconds earlier I placed a ‘back’ order on 24
  25. 25. ‘Allumee’ for £50 at a price of 1.1. Betfair performs ‘best execution’ on all the betsyou place i.e. they give you the best price available (which means the highest whenyou are backing or the lowest when you are laying). The price will never be worsethan the price you order, however your bet would be ‘unmatched’ if no one isprepared to accept your order.Fortunately for me, people were still prepared to ‘lay’ at 1.2 when I placed my backorder and I was ‘matched’ at this price. The race finished a few seconds later andyou can see that I made £10 profit on my £50 stake (20% profit for 3 minutes ‘work’!)I managed to achieve this without following the race on TV – I was just watching theprices changing on Betfair!I placed my bet when the horse was clear in the lead, only a few seconds to run, andno other horse advancing fast enough to catch it. Barring the horse tripping over ablade of grass, I could not lose.If you click on a horses name after a race has finished, you can view a lot moreinformation about trading during the race. This is the screenshot for the winninghorse… 25
  26. 26. The red line on the graph shows how the price on the horse reduced during the race.You can see how in the closing stages of the race the price fell steadily up to thewinning post.Above the graph you can see that over £1 million changed hands on this race, andthat the final price ‘matched’ was 1.01 (£1 profit on £100 stake). The panel on theright shows how much money was traded at each price. £17714 was traded at 1.01demonstrating just how much money is available as a horse crosses the winning line.On the following page I will briefly show you the same screen for a losing horse justso you get used to the price patterns. 26
  27. 27. Here is the same data for a losing horse in the same race. Because of the scale ofthe graph, it is difficult to see how the price increased during the race, until the pricefinally spiked up to 1000 near the end of the race.OK, so now I will explain when to back a horse in-running to achieve the profitsillustrated above…As we established earlier, the time to back a horse is when you are certain it is goingto win. If you are watching the race then you can decide for yourself when you arehappy to call the winner.I suggest betting small stakes to start with (the minimum on Betfair is £2) until youget used to using the Betfair site and also become confident in your own ability to callthe winner and be right all the time.If you find you are calling the winner incorrectly, then you are either deciding toosoon or watching a very close race. You should also be wary of deceptive viewingangles or TV close-ups that do not present you with a full view of what is happeningaround the lead horse. 27
  28. 28. If a race is very close then it is best NOT to bet because you cannot be certain ofselecting the winner. For this reason you will find that the best races to follow areover greater distances, usually over 2 miles, where the winning horse often leads byseveral lengths at the finish. Shorter races over 6 furlongs to 1 mile usually result ina very tense finish and you will usually find it impossible to pick the winner until it istoo late to bet.The actual betting process to follow is:1. Before the start of the race, log into Betfair, and navigate to the race in question.Once the prices are displayed for the runners, you can close the navigation panel byclicking the left arrow under the Betfair logo. This increases the viewing area for theelements you will use during the race.2. When the race starts, keep clicking Refresh, so you can see the prices changing.3. In the closing stages of the race choose the horse you feel has the greatestchance of winning. If you are using only prices on Betfair to select your horse thenthe lead horse will be the one with the lowest price.4. Click on the price indicated in the blue ‘Back’ column next to your selected horse.The right hand part of the screen will now look like this. You can see that the priceclicked on was 1.9. 28
  29. 29. 5. The price is reducing all the time as the horse draws clear of the field. If you triedto submit a bet at 1.9 then it would not be matched and you would not have a bet.The trick is the change the price to either the lowest you will accept or the lowestavailable on Betfair (always 1.01). I used to input 1.1 but now I use 1.01 as I amhappy with any sort of profit if I am certain of the result. Also input the amount youwish to bet. I am using a stake of £50. The screen will look like this:6. Click on ‘Submit’. At this stage you have not decided that this horse is definitelygoing to win, instead it just looked like the most likely. You can still change yourmind. By clicking Submit at this stage you are then only 1 click away from actuallyplacing a bet. After you have clicked Submit a confirmation question appears wherethe ‘Submit’ button was.The tick box on the left shows that Betfair will display this confirmation screen for allfuture bets. You can (if you wish) untick this box – BEWARE – this will remove theconfirmation question in future and will then place bets as soon as you press‘Submit’. 29
  30. 30. 7. You now need to wait until you are certain the horse is going to win. If you arewatching the race and have definitely decided the selection will win press ‘Yes’ tobet.Similarly, if you are using only Betfair keep refreshing using the button in Betfair andwatch the prices change. Only bet when or if:a) the price on the horse selected drops below 1.3 and;b) the prices on ALL other runners are greater than 15 and;c) you observe that the price on the selection is still reducing and;d) you observe that the prices on the other runners are still increasing.If the above criteria is met then press ‘Yes’ to submit your bet request.8. One second after pressing ‘Yes’ Betfair will try to match your bet. The price on thelead horse is reducing towards 1.01 and this is the price we input. However, Betfairuse ‘best execution’ which means they match you at the best price available at thetime. Therefore, the earlier you have placed your bet, the better price you will bematched at.The right hand panel will confirm the price you have been matched at. Clicking the‘My Bets’ tab presents a summary of all the ‘backs’ and ‘lays’ you had ‘matched’ or‘unmatched’ during the race.The race ends soon after and you are hopefully anything from 1% to 30% richer!Move onto the next race.9. If the race leader fades and you become interested in a different horse during therace simply click ‘No’ to the bet you have prepared, then click ‘Clear All’ at the top ofthe right panel. Then you can go back to step 4 for the horse you are now interestedin.You can see that the process involves preparing a bet on your favoured horse andgetting to within one click of asking Betfair to get you ‘matched’ ready for when youmake the split-second decision to bet.Notes for users selecting horses using ONLY Betfair:If you are using only changing prices on Betfair to select your horse ensure yourefresh the screen regularly, every second or so, to keep updating all the prices.Also ensure you can see ALL the horses on the Betfair screen. If there are a lot ofrunners in a race then you may find you have to scroll down to view all the runners.Increasing the resolution of your monitor may help bring all the runners into viewwithout having to scroll. The danger is that you place a bet, unaware that anotherhorse is doing very well, simply because you could not see its price. 30
  31. 31. Laying Horses In PlayThe previous section explained how to make easy profits betting on the winner of arace. It is also possible to make further profits earlier in a race by laying (bettingagainst) horses you decide are not going to win.Horses may fall, be pulled up, unseat their rider or drop too far back down the field towin. If you can take decisive action, then you can take some easy money off punterswho are betting blind or do not react quick enough to cancel their unmatched bets.I suggest it is not possible to make a risk free ‘lay’ bet by using only the priceschanging on the Betfair screen. Prices can drift to very high levels during a racebefore a horse starts to move up the field. It is only wise to place ‘lay’ bets when youare viewing the race yourself either at the course or on television.The process to follow is exactly the same as when backing order in play except youwill be clicking on the pink ‘Lay’ side of the screen to select your horse.The other difference is that in order to get a bet matched you will need to amend theprice clicked on to a higher figure in order to get your order matched. This isbecause the price for the horse selected is likely to be increasing.For a lay order, Betfair will again use ‘best execution’ and give you the best priceavailable up to the price input. Therefore if you have requested to lay the horse at aprice of say ‘50’ then you could in theory be matched at any price from 1.01 to 50. Ifthe price drifts beyond 50 before your bet is matched then it is likely you wouldremain unmatched.When playing a lay bet you must have sufficient funds in your Betfair account tocover the potential liability. Remember that you are effectively acting as thebookmaker and taking a bet off another punter. Therefore if you take a £5 bet at aprice of 40, your liability if 40 x £5 minus the £5 stake = £195. To take the £5 off apunter you must have £195 in your account. 31
  32. 32. The key to the successful placing of a lay bet in-running is being certain that thehorse will not win. Then you can take easy money off other punters.StakesI suggest working with a betting bank. This will provide you with some sort ofdiscipline. Whatever size bank you decide upon, I always recommend betting verysmall stakes to start with while you build confidence in this system and also in yourown ability to follow the system successfully.How much of your bank you are prepared to stake on each race is entirely up to you.Personally I suggest no more than 10% of your total ‘bank’ should be risked on eachrace. The reason for this is simple. If you were to make a silly mistake such aspressing the wrong button, your computer mouse malfunctions etc, then you do notwant your entire bank to be wiped out. If you ever did lose 10% of your bank, itwould not take very long at all to recoup.Software to make the in-play system easierWhen you try this system you will soon realise that there are two repetitive tasks:1. Continually refreshing the Betfair screen during a race to update prices.2. Placing back or lay bets involves several clicks to select the horse, input youmaximum or minimum acceptable price, inputting your stake and submitting the bet.Thankfully help is at hand owing to the efforts of a fellow Betfair user who has offeredsome automation scripts free of charge as referred to in the Trading section of thisguide.You can download the automation scripts from my webpage at:http://www.worldofmoney.net/tripledownloadThis download contains five scripts. The two which are relevant are ‘Betfair Refresh’and ‘Enable instant betting (fixed odds)’. Save the download to your computer thendouble click on it. Select the script you wish to install first – ‘Betfair Refresh’ on thedrop down menu then click ‘Install’. Repeat for the second script ‘Enable instantbetting (fixed odds)’. 32
  33. 33. To use the scripts open up Betfair and log in. Navigate to the event you wish to beton. Then right click somewhere on the screen and you will see the 2 scripts havebeen added to the menu that appears:Click ‘Betfair Refresh’ on the menu and you will be asked how often you wish theprices to be refreshed (1000 = 1 second). I suggest entering 1000 so the prices areupdated every second. The My Bets panel is also automatically refreshed. To cancelthe script simply refresh your entire browser window.The other script is started in a similar way by right-clicking and selecting ‘Enableinstant betting (fixed odds)’. You will be asked for the stake you wish to back, thestake you wish to accept on a lay, the minimum odds you are prepared to take on a‘back’ and the maximum odds you are prepared to take a ‘lay’ at. Once the script isrunning a confirmation screen will appear and the words ‘Total Selections’ above thelist of horses will turn red (normally black).At that point, if you click on the current back or lay price for a horse than an instantback or lay bet will be placed. The Betfair Yes/No confirmation question will stillappear though unless you have disabled this.If you navigate to another horse race or event you will need to restart the script.This script therefore gives you either one click or two click betting based on thestakes and minimum/maximum odds you specified. Combined with the auto-refreshscript you will be able to concentrate fully on the action during a race and have a 33
  34. 34. much more relaxing experience.You could alternatively try the single click betting software referred to in the tradingsection of this guide. This is not necessary for in-play betting if you are using theabove scripts but invaluable if you are ‘trading’.SummaryI hope you now feel ready to have a go at this system. To get started quickly Isuggest:1) Sign up for an account with Betfair here using ‘Refer and Earn’ codeKFEULQDQG to ensure you receive your free £20.2) Become familiar with Betfair using the on site tutorials.3) Read this guide again then have a go at the system using small stakes.4) Download and install the automation scripts or single click betting software tomake your betting simpler.I wish you every success.Commercial NoticeThis guide is my own work. No part of this guide may be reproduced or resoldwithout my permission.If you would like to enter into any form of partnership agreement to resell orredistribute this guide please email your proposal to plattk@btinternet.com 34

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