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# Betfair triple system

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### Betfair triple system

1. 1. No part of this guide may be reproduced or resold without express permission of the author. Copyright © K J Platt 2005 1
3. 3. Getting to Know BetfairIf you are a new Betfair user, the interface can look quite daunting at first glance.However it really is quite simple to use. An excellent tutorial is provided on theBetfair website and shows you exactly how to place ‘back’ and ‘lay’ bets.I strongly suggest that as a new user you become familiar with the basic functionsbefore attempting to place any ‘real money’ bets. Within the betfair.com site, click on‘Help’ and then ‘View Our Demo’.Odds FormatAll prices on the Betfair website are shown in European decimal format.Decimal odds express your total return for the stake you place. Therefore evenmoney is expressed as 2.0 - you get back your initial stake plus the same again aswinnings - twice your initial stake.To help you get used to the decimal odds format, a handy guide is printed on thefollowing page. The decimal system is very simple once you get used to it. 3
4. 4. Odds Conversion Table Fractional Decimal American 10/1 11.00 \$1,000.00 9/1 10.00 \$900.00 17/2 9.50 \$850.00 8/1 9.00 \$800.00 15/2 8.50 \$750.00 7/1 8.00 \$700.00 13/2 7.50 \$650.00 6/1 7.00 \$600.00 11/2 6.50 \$550.00 5/1 6.00 \$500.00 9/2 5.50 \$450.00 4/1 5.00 \$400.00 18/5 4.60 \$360.00 7/2 4.50 \$350.00 100/30 4.333 \$333.33 16/5 4.20 \$320.00 3/1 4.00 \$300.00 14/5 3.80 \$280.00 11/4 3.75 \$275.00 13/5 3.60 \$260.00 5/2 3.50 \$250.00 12/5 3.40 \$240.00 95/40 3.375 \$237.50 23/10 3.30 \$230.00 9/4 3.25 \$225.00 11/5 3.20 \$220.00 85/40 3.125 \$212.50 21/10 3.10 \$210.00 2/1 3.00 \$200.00 19/10 2.90 \$190.00 15/8 2.875 \$187.50 9/5 2.80 \$180.00 7/4 2.75 \$175.00 17/10 2.70 \$170.00 13/8 2.625 \$162.50 8/5 2.60 \$160.00 4
5. 5. 6/4 2.50 \$150.00 7/5 2.40 \$140.00 11/8 2.375 \$137.5013/10 2.30 \$130.00 5/4 2.25 \$125.00 6/5 2.20 \$120.0011/10 2.10 \$110.0021/20 2.05 \$105.00 1/1 2.00 -\$100.0020/21 1.952 -\$105.0010/11 1.909 -\$110.00 9/10 1.90 -\$111.10 5/6 1.833 -\$120.00 4/5 1.80 -\$125.00 8/11 1.727 -\$137.50 7/10 1.70 -\$142.90 4/6 1.667 -\$150.00 5/8 1.625 -\$160.00 8/13 1.615 -\$162.50 3/5 1.60 -\$166.70 4/7 1.571 -\$175.00 8/15 1.533 -\$187.50 1/2 1.50 -\$200.0040/85 1.471 -\$212.50 9/20 1.45 -\$222.20 4/9 1.444 -\$22500 2/5 1.40 -\$250.00 4/11 1.364 -\$275.00 7/20 1.35 -\$285.70 1/3 1.333 -\$300.0030/100 1.30 -\$333.30 2/7 1.286 -\$350.00 1/4 1.25 -\$400.00 2/9 1.222 -\$450.00 1/5 1.20 -\$500.00 5
6. 6. Safety First!Before implementing any of the techniques in this guide I would urge you to adherethe following guidance.1. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose.2. Never be greedy. Be happy to take small gains – it all adds up.3. Bet very small stakes to start with until you are comfortable with each technique. Itis better to learn a lot from a cheap mistake than learn little from a huge mistake.It is not necessary to use all the three methods described in this guide as eachsystem works independently. I do suggest, however, that you keep track of yourmoney, either by maintaining a record of your profits from each method or by openingseparate Betfair accounts.The three methods in this guide are: Identifying races where the ‘favourite’ is extremely Lay the Losers likely to lose and then ‘laying’ these horses before the race starts. Backing and laying a horse in the minutes before a Trading race starts to lock in a profit regardless of the race outcome. Backing a horse to win for a small profit just before it In-Play Betting crosses the winning line or ‘laying’ a horse during a race when is has no chance of winning. 6
7. 7. Lay the LosersThe key to this system is to identify races where the ‘favourite’ is extremely likely tolose and then ‘lay’ these horses before the race starts. We are looking for losers!When you ‘lay’ a horse, you are effectively acting as a bookmaker and taking a betfrom a punter. Say the price of the horse is 3.1 and you lay the horse for £5, you aretaking a bet of £5 from a ‘backer’. When you lay a horse then effectively all the otherhorses in the race are running for you.If the horse loses you keep the £5. Should the horse win your liability would be £5 x3.1 = £15.50 less the stake money of £5 = £10.50. You stood to win £5 if the horselost or lose £10.50 if the horse won.A long-term study reveals that only around 20% of ‘favourites’ win races on average.Very rarely will more than 40% of favourites win on any given day. This is a goodbasis to start from because we will naturally get more ‘losers’ than ‘winners’, althoughit depends on the prices of the winners whether we make a profit or not.To make a reliable profit we must identify which ‘favourites’ have a much higherprobability of losing. Note that we are only interested in ‘favourites’ (the shortestpriced horse on the race card). It would be easy to pick horses priced at 50 or abovebecause they do have a high probability of losing – the trouble is that they are alsovery expensive to pay out on when they do win!Step 1: Examine the Race CardsThis can be done online via the Racing Post well in advance of a days racing. Theirwebsite is:www.racingpost.co.ukIf you have not used the site before you will need to ‘register’, which is free, to obtaina user name and password. This will allow you to gain access to the data you need.On the Racing Menu down the left side of the screen click on ‘Cards’ and then clickon the day in question. You will be presented with a list of races for the main racemeeting for the day selected. You can also access the lists for the other racemeetings by clicking on a different venue. These are listed down the right hand sideof the screen – you will need to scroll down to see them – and are listed under theheading ‘Other Meetings’.To view a race card simply click on the name of the race adjacent to the race time: 7
8. 8. Above is the race card for the 1:30 at Huntingdon.Use the race card to check the number of horses running. If there are 10 or morerunners then look for the name of the ‘favourite’. The favourite is the horse that hasthe lowest price and is mentioned first in the betting forecast. In the above exampleyou can see that the favourite is ‘Irish Wolf’. If the race qualifies then proceed to step2, otherwise look at another race.A race will only qualify for this system if there are 10 or more runners.Step 2: Check the Racing Post RatingsThe right-hand column on the Race Card is headed ‘RPR’ which is short for RacingPost Rating. This is an indication of a horses ability.We are only interested in the race if at least 3 other horses are no lower than 10points below the favourite. In addition we can remain interested in thefavourite if it is unrated.You can see in the above example that the favourite, Irish Wolf, has a rating of 130,and 9 other runners have ratings no lower than 10 points below Irish Wolf. If the racequalifies then proceed to step 3, otherwise look at another race. 8
9. 9. Step 3: Check the TipstersBy clicking on the ‘Selections’ graphic underneath the Race Card you can bring up alist of tipsters and their selections for the race as shown below…We are looking for a clear sign that the favourite is unfancied by the majority oftipsters. Check how many tipsters have selected the favourite. Also check howmany tipsters have NOT selected the favourite and instead have chosen a differentrunner.If the number of selections NOT involving the favourite outnumbers the selections forthe favourite then make a note of the race time, location, the name of the horse andforecast price for use in the minutes before the race.You can see above that 6 tipsters have selected Irish Wolf whereas 9 tipsters haveselected other runners.Step 4: Check the Price MovementsThis step can only be carried out five minutes before the race starts. Log into yourBetfair account and navigate to the race in question. You will be presented with thestandard screen showing the current prices for each horse.We are essentially looking to ‘follow the money’ at this point. Huge sums are bet inthe few minutes before a race and this is often a good indicator of how a horse islikely to perform for a variety of reasons.By clicking on the favourites name in Betfair you can view a graph representing theprice history of the horse for that particular race. We are not really concerned withthe left hand half of the graph, as volatile trading takes place on Betfair when a race 9
10. 10. is first listed until the market finds a level.The right half of the graph will show us what has happened in the minutes leading upto the race. If a horse has been heavily backed the price on the horse will havereduced and the graph will be trending downwards. If this has happened thenobviously the horse must be looking good to win and we should therefore leave italone.If the right half of the graph is trending upwards then obviously the horse is now evenmore un-fancied and you should proceed to step 5. You can see in the examplebelow that the price has Irish Wolf has risen in the minutes before the race, fromaround 4.3 to 5.5. The right hand side of the graph is trending upwards and we candefinitely proceed.The final scenario is if the graph is ‘trading sideways’ and is neither trending up ordown. The price will be remaining fairly constant. This means the jury is out on thishorse and we should proceed with caution. If the ‘back price’ is higher than the priceon the Racing Post Race Card then proceed to step 5 and halve your stake,otherwise leave the horse alone.Step 5: Laying the Horse 10
12. 12. Summary of the Lay the Losers SystemCheck the race has at least 10 runners and identify the favourite on the racecard.Check the Racing Post Ratings (RPR) to ensure at least 3 other horses are nolower than 10 points below the favourite.Check the ‘Selections’ to ensure the total number of tips for other runners isgreater than the number of tips for the favourite.Finally, check the graph on Betfair 5 minutes before the race starts. If the priceis drifting lay the horse for 1% of your bank. If the horse is ‘trading sideways’then lay the horse for 0.5% of your bank if the price is greater than forecast onthe Race Card.The maximum price to lay at is 6. 12
15. 15. Price Increments1.01 – 2.00 0.012.00 – 3.00 0.023.00 – 4.00 0.054.00 – 6.00 0.106.00 – 10.00 0.20The GraphA good starting point for trading on a race is to see how the price has been changingin the last few minutes. If you click on the favourites name you can view the graphthat shows the recent price changes. This may give clues as to whether a horse’sprice is trending in any direction.If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving upwards, thisis a good indicator that you may be wanting to lay the horse first, then back shortlyafter at a higher price.If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving downwards,this is a good indicator that you may be wanting to back the horse first, then layshortly after at a lower price.Regardless of the trends shown, we are not going to use the graph as the onlyindicator of the likely next price movement. The graph only represents a historicalprice record. Although trends may continue this is not guaranteed. You can nowclose the graph and start concentrating on the main trading window.At this point you will need to keep refreshing the Betfair window so you can keep upto date with the changing data. The final section of the trading part of this guideprovides you with the ‘tools of the trade’ that can perform this function automaticallyfor you.Weight of MoneyThe other major indicator of the next movement in price is referred to as ‘weight ofmoney’. If you look at the row of data containing the name of the favourite horse, youwill see 3 back prices and 3 lay prices together with the amounts available.At this point in reading this guide you should stop and think about these numbers andwhat they mean. The ‘back’ prices represent people who want to ‘lay’ the horse atthat price. The ‘lay’ prices represent people who want to ‘back’ the horse at thatprice.The ‘weight of money’, more often than not, pushes the price in one direction oranother. 15
16. 16. If there is more money on the ‘back’ side, then more people wish to ‘lay’ the horsethan back it – this usually leads to the horse drifting (the price increases).If there is more money on the ‘lay’ side, then more people wish to ‘back’ the horsethan lay it – this usually leads to the horse shortening (the price reduces).The ‘weight of money’ takes into account the total of all 3 amounts of moneyavailable on the ‘back’ side compared to the total of all 3 amounts of money availableon the ‘lay’ side.If the ‘back’ side and ‘lay’ side are fairly equal then obviously the price is not likely tobe moving.Making a decision to tradeTrading is all about discipline. Being disciplined means identifying the correct time totrade AND also being able to resist trading when conditions are not right.What we are ideally looking for is:1) The graph showing a trend, up or down. Here we see Consonant on the drift: 16
18. 18. I continued to watch the screen and managed to lay at 4.7 and back at 4.8, then layat 5.6/5.7 and back at 5.7 for a little extra profit.Shortly before the advertised race time I decided to take the profit accrued. To dothis you divide the profit on the horse by the available ‘lay’ price and then ‘lay’ for thisamount.In this case the profit was £15.01. The available lay price was 5.5. I therefore layedthe horse for £2.73. This created a situation where I would gain £3.01 if Consonantwon, or £2.73 if any other horse won. Remember when trading, the actual back/layor lay/back process only takes a few seconds.When you first start trading with small premiums you will not be able to ‘green up’due to the minimum stake being £2 on Betfair. The example below shows how onetrade on ‘Oh Danny Boy’ has created a £5 profit situation IF the horse wins. It isimpossible to spread the profit and ‘green up’ because the required stake would be£5/5.4 = £0.92, well below the minimum. 18
19. 19. This is therefore a ‘free bet’ situation, where you will win £5 if the horse wins but losenothing if the horse does not win.Riding the WaveIn the above examples the ‘weight of money’ factor was fairly small and therefore Iwas concentrating on making small gains from relatively minor price changes.Sometimes sentiment amongst punters moves firmly for or against a horse shortlybefore a race and this leads fairly large price movements in a short space of time.These situations are opportunities for smart traders to make a lot of money.You will recognise when this happens because the ‘weight of money’ will beoverwhelming in one direction or another perhaps with a factor of 10 or more.When such an opportunity presents itself get on board as soon as possible byplacing your opening back or lay (depending on the direction of movement). Insteadof immediately requesting the opposing bet simply wait and see what happens. Youcan then ‘ride the wave’ until you see the weight of money coming back into balance.The price may change considerably before balance is restored and you then placeyour opposing back or lay bet, locking in a large profit. Unfortunately I have noscreenshots for you of such a situation (because I make the most of these occasionsand don’t waste time taking screenshots). An example of a horse where the price willdrift considerably would look something like: Back Lay 2.62 2.64 2.66 2.68 2.70 2.72 £2354 £1875 £2005 £240 £48 £54In this situation you would quickly lay the horse and then wait for as long as possiblebefore eventually backing at a much higher price when the weight of money comesback into balance.Software to Make Trading EasierTo trade successfully you will need to be able to see the prices and volumesavailable changing every second. You should also be able to place back and laybets quickly.There are two solutions for this:1) Trading using the Betfair website. You can use the ‘Betfair Refresh’ scriptdescribed on page 32 of this guide. This will refresh the screen at the interval youset making trading a lot easier. You will still be stuck with a multi-click bet process 19
20. 20. however and this will mean you are sometimes too slow and miss a price change youanticipated.Although you can trade successfully using the Betfair website interface you can tradequicker and more successfully using my preferred solution:2) Single click betting software. Please visit the website:http://www.gruss.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/There you can download a free single click ‘Betting Assistant’ program written by aBetfair user. The website also contains a support forum. The advantages of usingthis software are:a) Single click betting on all 3 back and lay prices.b) Continually updated display of prices and volumes.c) Continually updated display of potential profit.d) Option to take profit (‘green up’) with one click.e) Instant colour coded snapshot of the overall weight of money.If you take the time to learn how to use the above software you will be rewarded witha much easier way of trading.I won’t describe how to use the software within this guide because the forum andhelp screens available do this job anyway. I will simply say that once you get usedto the software I guarantee you will never trade via the Betfair interface again. 20
21. 21. In-Play BettingMany events taking place are turned ‘In-play’ by Betfair, allowing you place ‘back’ or‘lay’ orders while the event in actually taking place. Naturally the prices can changesignificantly during an event according to what is happening on the field of play.The techniques described in this guide can be used for many differing sportingevents e.g. football, rugby, snooker, tennis etc. I am going to use horse racing in allmy examples, simply because a great deal of money changes hands ‘in-play’ onBetfair on UK horse races. Regularly over £100000 worth of bets are ‘matched’ on asingle race and this figure can easily be over £1 million. Please steer of non-UKhorse racing, as often the liquidity during a race is very low leading to pricing thatdoes not reflect a horses’ true chance of winning.You can easily check whether an event will be turned in play by navigating to theevent within the Betfair website and then clicking on ‘Rules’. The paragraphdisplayed will indicate if the event will be turned ‘IN PLAY’.When an event starts all unmatched bets are cancelled and betting is brieflysuspended. Then the event turns ‘In-play’ and betting can commence again. An ‘In-play’ event is indicated by a white tick on a green square with the Betfair interface.I advise watching what happens during a horse race to get familiar with the priceschanging and what is displayed. You will need to keep clicking ‘Refresh’ with theBetfair page to update the prices as the action unfolds. You can click ‘Refresh’ everysecond or so. Betting can take place right up to the finishing post when Betfairsuspend trading on the race.On next page I will describe what you should notice during a horse race…What Happens on the Betfair Screen During the Race1. The race starts – betting is Suspended with all unmatched bets cancelled.2. Betting resumes with new ‘back’ and ‘lay’ orders filling the screen.3. Orders are matched or cancelled as the race unfolds.4. Prices change rapidly – prices shorten (smaller odds) on race leaders andprices increase (greater odds) on slower runners. 21
22. 22. 5. As horses drift out of the action, or a pulled up or fall, ‘back’ orders are cancelled and it is no longer possible to ‘lay’ the horse. Some ‘layers’ still offer odds of 1000 (999/1) in the hope of attracting a ‘mug punter’.6. Odds on the leaders shorten considerably until the final furlongs.7. If a race has a clear winner approaching the winning post, then the odds on all‘losers’ drift towards 1000. Odds on the ‘winner’ reduce.8. As the winner crosses the line the odds will be 1.01 i.e. a £1 profit to £100stake.9. Betting is again Suspended.By clicking on each horses name after the race you can view details of the last price‘matched’ and a graph of how the price altered on that horse. The prices tell youwhich horse won the race (last price matched usually 1.01 or close to 1.01) and alsoshow the prices rising on the losers to as high as 1000.Making Your ProfitThe system is simple. As the race unfolds you can make money in 2 ways:LAY horses that are definitely NOT GOING TO WIN. The horse may have fallen,been pulled up, unseated its rider or is too far back down the field.BACK the horse that is GOING TO WIN. The horse cannot be caught, has nomore fences to jump, and is running into the last furlong.Now we will look in detail at the processes you need to follow and the factors youneed to be aware of...Using ‘Live’ BroadcastsIt is possible to follow the progress of a race simply by referring to the changingprices within the Betfair site, and I describe later how to bet using only theinformation available on Betfair.However you will make much higher profits if you are able to gain an extra ‘edge’over other punters. For most people, this will mean viewing the event on television orlistening to a radio or internet broadcast.Being able to see, or hear, the action will give you confidence to bet earlier in a race 22