Slides from the Resolution Foundation event "What's the damage? The impact of the great recession on the jobs market in Britain and America — and the prospects for a recovery". 14 November 2013. Full details at http://res-fdn.org/1gtn9o8

1. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
A Polarising Crisis?
The changing shape of the UK and US
labour markets from 2008 to 2012
James Plunkett
Director of Policy
#sharedrecovery

2. Key question: how has the long downturn from 2008
to 2012 reshaped the UK and US labour markets?
…………………………………………………………………..
• As debate shifts, important question of what the recovery
looks like
– Quality of jobs and pay
– Scars left by the crisis
• How has the downturn reshaped labour markets?
– Some occupations hit harder than others
– Some industries hit harder than others
• What does this tell us about the balance between short-term
impacts vs. long-term structural trends?
– Post-downturn patterns of demand
– Long-running, structural changes – impact of new technologies
#sharedrecovery

3. …………………………………………………………………..
1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market
a. …by occupations
b. …by industrial sectors
2. The story from the US
#sharedrecovery

4. …………………………………………………………………..
1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market
a. …by occupations
b. …by industrial sectors
2. The story from the US
#sharedrecovery

5. …………………………………………………………………..
1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market
a. …by occupations
b. …by industrial sectors
2. The story from the US
#sharedrecovery

6. 1993-2012: Over two decades, the UK jobs market has
polarised, with middle skilled-jobs in relative decline
…………………………………………………………………..
The changing shape of the UK labour market – 1993-2012
Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations
#sharedrecovery

7. 2001-2007: Polarisation was less pronounced in the
run up to the crisis – particularly at the bottom
…………………………………………………………………..
The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis
Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2001-2007
#sharedrecovery

8. 2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated again in the
aftermath of the crisis
…………………………………………………………………..
The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis
Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012
#sharedrecovery

9. 2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated again in the
aftermath of the crisis
…………………………………………………………………..
The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis
Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012
More routine jobs
#sharedrecovery

10. 2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated again in the
aftermath of the crisis
…………………………………………………………………..
The changing shape of the UK labour market in the run up to the crisis
Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012
More non-routine jobs
#sharedrecovery

11. Routine jobs have borne the brunt of post-2008 job
losses. Non-routine roles have grown throughout
…………………………………………………………………..
Impact of the crisis on routine and non-routine jobs
Employment, millions, 2007-2012
Routine
Non-routine
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
#sharedrecovery

12. Routine jobs have borne the brunt of post-2008 job
losses. Non-routine roles have grown throughout
…………………………………………………………………..
Impact of the crisis on routine and non-routine jobs
Employment, millions, 2007-2012
Routine
Non-routine
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
#sharedrecovery

13. …………………………………………………………………..
1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market
a. …by occupations
b. …by industrial sectors
2. The story from the US
#sharedrecovery

14. There are success stories at the top and bottom
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
#sharedrecovery

15. There are success stories at the top and bottom
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

16. There are success stories at the top and bottom
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

17. There are success stories at the top and bottom
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

18. There are success stories at the top and bottom
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

19. There are success stories at the top and bottom
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of UK industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
+140k
- 170k
+190k
#sharedrecovery

20. …………………………………………………………………..
1. How 2008-12 reshaped the UK jobs market
a. …by occupations
b. …by industrial sectors
2. The story from the US
#sharedrecovery

21. 2001-2007: As in the UK, polarisation in the US
appeared to have slowed in the run up to the crisis
…………………………………………………………………..
The changing shape of the US labour market in the run up to the crisis
Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2001-2007
#sharedrecovery

22. 2008-2012: Polarisation has accelerated in the
aftermath of the crisis from 2008 to 2012
…………………………………………………………………..
The changing shape of the US labour market in the run up to the crisis
Change in Log (Employment) across the skill-distribution of UK occupations, 2008-2012
#sharedrecovery

23. US industry trends show a clearer pattern
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of US industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
#sharedrecovery

24. US industry trends show a clearer pattern
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of US industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

25. US industry trends show a clearer pattern
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of US industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

26. US industry trends show a clearer pattern
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of US industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

27. US industry trends show a clearer pattern
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of US industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
#sharedrecovery

28. US industry trends show a clearer pattern
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The changing balance of US industries since the crisis
Change in net employment, 2008-2012
Average pay, 2008
Change in employment, 2008-12
+0.4m
- 4.4m
+1.9m
#sharedrecovery

29. What lessons can we draw?
…………………………………………………………………..
• Some common findings
– Polarisation intensified after 2008
– Success of high-end services
– Employment-absorbing low paid sectors – hospitality, health
• Interpret findings carefully
– Middle is falling in relative terms – not ‘disappearing’
– Doesn’t have to mean rising inequality – also need to consider supply
• Big question: short-term impacts vs. long-running structural trends
– Clear impact from fall in demand (e.g. construction). Are we just at that point in
the cycle?
– But also evidence of deeper trends – routine jobs, social care, hospitality,
business activities
#sharedrecovery

30. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
James Plunkett
Director of Policy
#sharedrecovery