In June, the Saudi Ports Authority released its Q109 figures, which showed that the global downturn hadhit throughput levels at the country's ports. Total cargo throughput at the ports declined by 11.39% yearon year (y-o-y). The country's largest ports, Jeddah Islamic Port (JIP) and Dammam's King AbdulazizPort, recorded y-o-y declines of 31.46% and 25.24%, respectively, in Q109 in total cargo handled. Thelargest decline in throughput, of 79.8%, was at the Yanbu Commercial Port. The only port in SaudiArabia's maritime sector to record growth was the King Fahad Industrial Port in Yanbu, where total cargohandled grew by 11.37%. BMI believes that this port was able to maintain growth because it is SaudiArabia's main port for the export of crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals. Export of these,unlike other exports, continued growing despite the global economic downturn, with petrochemicalsloaded at the country's ports seeing the largest Q109 y-o-y increase of 23.11%. Container throughput fellin Q109 at JIP and Dammam, Saudi Arabia's main ports.In our latest Saudi Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that the country's freight tonnage traffic,across all modes, is likely to grow by an annual average of 1.6% over the next five years. Various factorsunderpin our prediction. We now think that Saudi GDP growth in 2009-2013 will reach an annual averageof 3.3% (lower than the 4.3% achieved over the preceding five years). Albeit at a reduced rate, oil and gasexports will be the drivers of foreign trade. Although the pace of trade growth will ease, tanker exportswill remain important. Large infrastructure projects will also help to expand transport capacity and boostdemand for cargo.By transport mode, we expect the fastest growing to be rail at 4.5%, airfreight at 4.3%, road haulage at3.6%, pipeline throughput at 2.3% and sea cargo at an annual average of 1.1%. The slower growth of oiland gas pipeline throughput will reflect the cooling of the oil price boom. Saudi Arabia scores moderatelyin terms of its growth forecast for freight transport across all modes through to 2013, with an annualaverage of 1.6%. However, with its petrodollar revenues, the country has demonstrated a commitment toreforming and improving its transport sector, and the current policy agenda (including greater privatesector involvement) should bring results. Saudi Arabia's overall freight rating at 59.1 out of 100 is a littlebelow the average for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. It scores well in terms of its economicoutlook because of its abundant natural resources, principally oil and gas. However, it does less well interms of its freight-transport growth projections over the 2009-2013 period and its current regulatoryenvironment.For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continueoutpacing the economy as a whole in GDP growth terms. It will achieve average annual growth of 3.8%,versus 3.3% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise toUS$32.9bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 5.7% of Saudi Arabia's GDP.

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Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report Q3 2009
Published on August 2009
Report Summary
In June, the Saudi Ports Authority released its Q109 figures, which showed that the global downturn had
hit throughput levels at the country's ports. Total cargo throughput at the ports declined by 11.39% year
on year (y-o-y). The country's largest ports, Jeddah Islamic Port (JIP) and Dammam's King Abdulaziz
Port, recorded y-o-y declines of 31.46% and 25.24%, respectively, in Q109 in total cargo handled. The
largest decline in throughput, of 79.8%, was at the Yanbu Commercial Port. The only port in Saudi
Arabia's maritime sector to record growth was the King Fahad Industrial Port in Yanbu, where total cargo
handled grew by 11.37%. BMI believes that this port was able to maintain growth because it is Saudi
Arabia's main port for the export of crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals. Export of these,
unlike other exports, continued growing despite the global economic downturn, with petrochemicals
loaded at the country's ports seeing the largest Q109 y-o-y increase of 23.11%. Container throughput fell
in Q109 at JIP and Dammam, Saudi Arabia's main ports.
In our latest Saudi Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that the country's freight tonnage traffic,
across all modes, is likely to grow by an annual average of 1.6% over the next five years. Various factors
underpin our prediction. We now think that Saudi GDP growth in 2009-2013 will reach an annual average
of 3.3% (lower than the 4.3% achieved over the preceding five years). Albeit at a reduced rate, oil and gas
exports will be the drivers of foreign trade. Although the pace of trade growth will ease, tanker exports
will remain important. Large infrastructure projects will also help to expand transport capacity and boost
demand for cargo.
By transport mode, we expect the fastest growing to be rail at 4.5%, airfreight at 4.3%, road haulage at
3.6%, pipeline throughput at 2.3% and sea cargo at an annual average of 1.1%. The slower growth of oil
and gas pipeline throughput will reflect the cooling of the oil price boom. Saudi Arabia scores moderately
in terms of its growth forecast for freight transport across all modes through to 2013, with an annual
average of 1.6%. However, with its petrodollar revenues, the country has demonstrated a commitment to
reforming and improving its transport sector, and the current policy agenda (including greater private
sector involvement) should bring results. Saudi Arabia's overall freight rating at 59.1 out of 100 is a little
below the average for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. It scores well in terms of its economic
outlook because of its abundant natural resources, principally oil and gas. However, it does less well in
terms of its freight-transport growth projections over the 2009-2013 period and its current regulatory
environment.
For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue
outpacing the economy as a whole in GDP growth terms. It will achieve average annual growth of 3.8%,
versus 3.3% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to
US$32.9bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 5.7% of Saudi Arabia's GDP.
Table of Content
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis6
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report Q3 2009 Page 1/5

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Saudi Arabia Transport Industry SWOT ' The Landbridge Project....... 6
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT....... 7
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT.... 7
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT. 8
Business Environment ...9
Table: Middle East And Africa Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings ...... 10
Freight Industry Ranking .... 10
Saudi Arabia Logistics Performance Index (LPI) ....... 10
Economics Long-Term Risk ....... 11
Politics ' Long-Term Risk.. 11
Freight Transport Growth ... 12
Transport Infrastructure Growth . 12
Regulatory Environment..... 12
Competitive Environment ... 12
Transport Intensity...... 13
Political Risk Summary ...... 13
Economic Risk Summary ... 13
Business Environment 13
Industry Trends And Developments ....15
Road ... 15
Air....... 15
Sea ...... 16
Industry Forecast Scenario..19
Quarterly Oil Products Price Outlook . 19
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)... 21
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl) .. 22
Macroeconomic Forecast .... 22
Table: Saudi Arabia ' Economic Activity, 2006-2013 24
Transport Outlook....... 25
Table: Saudi Arabia's Freight Transport Industry Forecast Scenario, 2006-2013 26
Table: Saudi Arabia's Freight Transport Industry Indicators, 2006-2013 .... 27
Trade Environment28
Table: Total Value Of Imports, 2006-2013 (US$mn) . 28
Table: Total Value Of Exports, 2006-2013 (US$mn) . 29
Top Export Destinations, 2000-2006 (US$mn)... 30
Table: Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)..... 31
Table: Import Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)..... 31
Table: Top Import Sources, 2002-2006 (US$mn)....... 32
Market Overview....33
Multi-Modal..... 33
Competitive Landscape: Multi-Modal 33
Road. 35
Infrastructure ...... 35
Competitive Landscape: Road .... 35
Rail .. 37
Infrastructure ...... 37
Competitive Landscape: Rail ...... 37
Air.... 39
Infrastructure ...... 39
Competitive Landscape: Aviation....... 39
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report Q3 2009 Page 2/5

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Company Profile: Saudi Arabian Airlines... 43
Water ....... 45
Infrastructure ...... 45
Competitive Landscape: Maritime...... 46
Company Profile: National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia . 48
Table: National Shipping Company Of Saudi Arabia's Key Financial Data (%) . 49
Pipelines .. 50
Competitive Landscape: Pipelines ...... 50
Country Snapshot: Saudi Arabia Demographic Data.51
Section 1: Population.. 51
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 51
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ....... 52
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 52
Table: Education, 2003-2005...... 52
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030....... 52
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power. 53
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2006. 53
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)....... 53
BMI Forecast Modelling 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts.. 54
Transport Industry ...... 54
Sources .... 55
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