1. The Disjunct Between Urban Population and Area: a Remote Sensing Study of Cuidad Juárez
and Tijuana Border Areas, 2000 - 2014
Senior Thesis
Rebekah Watkins
GPY 495 - 01 Professor Cole
10 December, 2014
Paper in partial fulfillment of the senior thesis requirement in the Department of Geography and
Planning, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, Michigan

2. Table of Contents
Section Page
Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………………..…. i
List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………………..ii
List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………………ii
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………..1
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………1
Literature Review…………..…………………………………………………………………… 2
Methods…………………………………………………………………………………………..3
Results and Discussion………………………………………………………………………….. 6
Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………………..…14
Limitations…………………………………………………………………………………..… 15
Future Research…………………………………………………………………………..…… 15
Works Cited…………………………………………………………………………….…….. 16
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3. List of Tables
Table Page
Table 1: Percent Average Change by City (2000 - 2014) ………………………………………12
Table 2: Population Data (2000 - 2010)…………………………………………………….…..12
List of Figures
Figure Page
Figure 1: Tijuana and San Diego Areas of Study ……………………………………………… 4
Figure 2: Ciudad Juárez and El Paso Areas of Study………………………………………….. 4
Figure 3: ArcMap Methods Flowchart ………………………………………………………… 5
Figure 4: Supervised Class Codes……………………………………………………….…….. 6
Figure 5: El Paso and Juárez Original Raster Images ………………….……………………… 7
Figure 6: El Paso and Juárez Classified Raster Images……………………………………….. 8
Figure 7: San Diego and Tijuana Original Raster Images ……………..……………………… 9
Figure 8: San Diego and Tijuana Classified Raster Images…………….……………………..10
Figure 9: Percent Average Cover by Year …………………………………………………… 11
Figure 10: Percent Average Change (2000 - 2014)………………………………………….. 11
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4. iii

5. Abstract
The motivation behind this study is to reveal insight into the ongoing development of
Mexican-American border cities by differentiating area density and population of major
American and Mexican border towns. Through this study, correlations of the urbanized
development between the U.S.and Mexican urban communities will be observed. Secondary data
was collected from the areas of study for the years 2000/2002 and 2014. GIS was used from here
to preform supervised classification on the images. Continued analysis shows overall
urbanization in border cities through the years. The results from this study will uncover that the
Mexican side of the border continues urbanizing sporadically due to growing population and the
absence of planning. The American side shows organized and dispersed urban development over
time. Population as well continues to climb in border towns and with a decline in the number of
people per household. Therefore in conclusion, the urban growth that is seen correlates well with
the population data as there is a need for more housing in these cities.
Key Words: Mexican-American border cities, Imagery analysis, Population growth
Introduction
The purpose of this study is to shed light on the continual development of border town
areas by contrasting area density and population in major American and Mexican border towns.
Through this study, comparisons of the urbanized growth between the U.S. and Mexican border
cities will be seen over time. The results from this analysis will reveal that the Mexican side of
the border continues to urbanize and grow sporadically due to rapid population growth and lack
of planning. By contrast, data collected from the American side will show structured and spaced
urban growth over time.
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6. Literature Review
Since the 1950s, the international border between the United States and Mexico has been
one of the world’s fastest urbanizing areas (Herzog, 1991). As America turned to outsourcing,
Mexican border towns expanded rapidly as people migrated to northern Mexico to work in the
factories that U.S. companies have conveniently placed just over the border. Urbanization
boomed because there was such high demand for factory workers. These towns that lay on the
U.S. Border (Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana and Mexicali) have developed large areas of urban and
industrial sprawl that cover the ground very differently than the American cities directly across
the border from them.
That said, not all nonuniform Mexican urbanization of border cities occurs because of
worker’s migration to northern border cities. It has been seen that there are many different
income levels residing in irregularly planned zones. Therefore, not only lower-class families are
found in these irregular zones but also middle and higher-class families. The 2000 Mexican
census data reported that 43% of the population of Tijuana resides in an irregular zoning area
(Graizbord, 2006). "The cities of Mexico face many of the problems associated with rapid urban
growth in developing countries: inadequate housing supply, a lack of water and sewage
infrastructure, unclear property rights, and insufficient response capacity in the local
government” (Monkkonen, 2008: 227). The inability for cities to maintain local infrastructure
and plan come from their lack of delegated resources, technology and personnel.
One of the key contributions for uneven development is the shortfall of government
agencies in delegation of the land. Many times crowed development happens because of
discrepancies between municipal, state and federal branches’ ownership over an area. Even if
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7. zoning ordinances were placed for certain areas they would not be enforceable unless the agency
that created the ordinances were clearly the presiding authoritative organization (Graizbord,
2006).
The Mexican government is not completely at fault. Although, absence of land
regularization has played a part in the boom of the illegal subdividing of land, contributing
significantly to urban crowding in major Mexican cities. Subdividing land is popular in urban
centers because of the high cost of lots in those areas. Owners are found selling off or renting
pieces of their land or slitting up houses and apartments to others (Graizbord, 2006).
Methods
Remote sensing and GIS were the research methods used to investigate urban
development in Mexico and the United States. The area of study for this project was two of the
largest border towns in Mexico, Tijuana and Cuidad Juárez, and their American counterparts, San
Diego and El Paso.
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8. Figure 1. Tijuana and San Diego Areas of Study
Source: Author.
Figure 2. Ciudad Juárez and El Paso Areas of Study
Source: Author.
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9. First, the images from 2000/2002 and 2014, of the major regional border cities were
exported from Google Earth from the same elevation above the ground. The images were
selected based on their appearance of density. Three images were selected from each city for
each year in order to include images of high medium and low density housing areas, as seen in
figures 1 and 2 on the previous page. Then these images were imported into ArcGIS for
secondary analysis. Preliminary, the parcels in each image were summed as to better
estimate the density of each area.
Image classification has two major types of analysis; supervised and unsupervised.
Supervised is a machine learning process of analyzing the land change/land cover in images,
whereas unsupervised is a manual classification of the images based on shade and contrast of the
image where the user defines the land change and cover.
Figure 3. ArcMap Methods Flowchart
Source: Author.
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10. For this study, first the original raster images were imputed into ArcMap and then clipped
to similar size. From here, the clipped rasters were used to make training samples of urban,
paved roads, barren ground, vegetation and water. These training samples were then made into a
signature file for the machine learning process. The signature file was imputed in to the
supervised classification of Maximum likelihood to calculate the classes of land cover based on
my samples. Lastly, data analysis was preformed on the recoded images in order to calculate the
percent land cover/change in each image.
Figure 4. Supervised Class Codes
Source: Author.
Results and Discussion
As seen on the following pages in figures 5 - 8, the classified images reveal that both
sides of the border have growth of urbanized areas throughout the years. The U.S. side of the
border is developing into crisper, polygonal urban land cover as compared to Mexico’s. Juárez’s
urban land cover that is not growing as fast as expected.
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11. Figure 5. El Paso and Juárez Original Raster Images
High Density Medium Density Low Density
Source: Google Earth (2014), Author.
7

12. Figure 6. El Paso and Juárez Classified Raster Images
High Density Medium Density Low Density
Source: Google Earth (2014), Author.
8

13. Figure 7. San Diego and Tijuana Original Raster Images
High Density Medium Density Low Density
Source: Google Earth (2014), Author.
9

14. Figure 8. San Diego and Tijuana Classified Raster Images
High Density Medium Density Low Density
Source: Google Earth (2014), Author.
Contrasting these images, one can see some overall urbanization and development,
especially in the low density images. With further analysis, it can be noted that overall
urbanization rose from 2000 to 2014, as seen in figure 9. Barren ground was reduced as roads
and new housing was build through the years. Roads had the highest overall percent growth, with
a 3.2 percent rise, seen in figure 10. This is a rather normal growth with regards to the fact that
the average city is 60% roadway.
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15. Figure 9. Percent Average Cover by Year
Source: Author.
Figure 10. Percent Average Change (2000 - 2014)
Source: Author.
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16. Table 1. Percent Average Change by City (2000 - 2014)
Source: Author.
Table 2. Population Data (2000 - 2010)
Source: Instituto National De Estadísticas Y Geografía (INEGI, 2014)
American FactFinder (U.S. Census, 2014)
Looking at the population statistics, seen in table 2, all of the studied cities are
continually growing. There is a reduction in the number of people per household over the years.
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17. This means that more houses had to be build within 2000 and 2010 to accommodate the growing
populations.
The United States as very strict zoning and building laws unlike that of Mexico. As well,
American border towns do not see as large of a population growth as those in Mexico. With little
to no urbanization and a small population growth, not much change is seen in American border
cities.
When looking at Tijuana’s history one can see an atypical form of development. Unlike
the normal growth of Latin-American cities Tijuana did not form a nuclear urban core. Rather
because of lack of infrastructure and legal land, the city spread out in an urban sprawl when it
began to urbanize quickly (Graizbord, 2006). Tijuana also faces a large population growth, as
seen in table 2. There is a large increase of paved roads and lots over the years that support this
new growth, table 1. Tijuana is unable to support their housing growth. Lack of planning caused
sporadic development and subdividing of parcels, as seen in figure 7 and 8. The city’s overall
high density indicates slum-like conditions, which could be caused by its large population
growth.
Juarez is one of the fasted urbanizing cities (as seen in table 1), the expansion is fueled by
growing numbers of factories in Mexican border cities. This takes away from the number of
agricultural workers available and causes crowed cities since factory jobs are a more steady form
of work than agriculture. In 2000, Ciudad Juárez averaged 251 people per square kilometer
(Enríquez Acosta, 2009) and rose to 374 in 2010 (INEGI, 2014). As of 2005, Juárez had 278
factories that were providing around 196,500 jobs to the immediate surrounding area (INEGI,
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18. 2014). Cities like Juárez often have high real-estate values and not enough room to support a
crowded population, because multi-national assembly-line factories occupy large tracts of land
and the mountainous, uninhabitable topography on the southwest side boxes in the urban
expansion. The economic drivers of growth from these profitable factories are trumping zoning
laws and “local governments [are] unable to regulate urban development” (Enríquez Acosta,
2009). Today, most crowding is made up of young, male workers who move to Juarez alone in
order to provide for their families back in their hometowns. Forty-one percent of the population
is not native to Ciudad Juárez, with a majority of that percentage coming from surrounding
states. Many workers live as efficiently as possible, staying in one-room apartments or sharing a
house with others. Fifteen percent of Juárez’s residents live in tight and cramped conditions
under extreme poverty (Enríquez Acosta, 2009).
Conclusions
Comparisons show the U.S.A. is modernizing and moving outwards with lower
population growth and little to no urbanization happening in already highly dense areas. On the
other hand, Mexican border cities are expanding by crowding and subdividing of parcels. “The
cities with higher population growth rates and higher population densities urbanized land at a
greater rate” (Monkkonen, 2008: 233). Crowding started very early on in the Mexican border
cities due to the fact that the city’s population was growing faster than their governments could
provide for and handle. For each city we must take into account its history, culture, economy,
laws, government and industrial activity in order to truly understand its urbanization process.
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19. Limitations
There was some issues with finding images of good quality. Google Earth is a great
resource but does not have imagery for all years and months. Therefore due to lack of imagery,
images from 2002 were used for Juárez and El Paso.
As with many image classification there was limitations. Machine learning is great, but
the program can only do so much. Imagery with shadows or dark roofs would often times get
classified as roads. Also, with many different colors of roofs it was hard to take samples of all of
the types. These challenges were addressed and images were often reclassified with different
training samples to create rather accurate classified images.
When first looking at the images it is hard to estimate exactly how many residents are
living in the areas of study. The estimation of people per household can be used but it only gives
an approximation of the residents. Therefore, the exact density of the study areas can not be
known precisely because of illegal parcel subdividing.
Future Research
In the future an on-site observational study would be recommended in order to further
note the impacts and causes of urban crowding and development. This would also be useful for
gathering more accurate population densities for each area. The areas of study for each city could
be expanded to create a better comprehension of the urbanization and problems of each city as a
whole. A larger area of study would also be useful to see if similarities are found in other border
cities. Also, as always, imagery with better resolution would add to the accuracy of the machine
learning process providing better results.
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20. Works Cited
American FactFinder. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010.
Brunn, Stanley D., Jack Francis. Williams, and Michael E. Bonine. Cities of the World: World
Regional Urban Development. 5th ed. Washington DC: Rowman & Littlefield, 2012.
Enríquez Acosta, Jesús Ángel. "Migration and Urbanization in Northwest Mexico's Border
Cities." Journal of the Southwest 51.4 (2009): 445-55.
Graizbord, Boris. "Reseña: Legalizando La Ciudad. Asentamientos Informales Y Procesos De
Regularización En Tijuana." Rev. of Legalizando La Ciudad. Asentamientos Informales Y
Procesos De Regularización En Tijuana, by Tito Alegría Olazábal and Gerardo Ordóñez
Barba. Estudios Demográficos Y Urbanos 63rd ser. 21.3 (2006): 757-61.
Herzog, Lawrence A. "USA-Mexico Border Cities: A Clash of Two Cultures." Habitat
International 15.1-2 (1991): 261-73.
INEGI. Instituto National De Estadísticas Y Geografía, 2010.Sloan, John W., and Johnthan P.
West. “The Role of Informal Policy Making in U.S.-Mexico Border Cities." Social
Science Quarterly 58.2 (1977): 279-82.
Staudt, Kathleen A., Fuentes Flores César M., and Monárrez Fragoso Julia Estela. Cities and
Citizenship at the U.S.-Mexico Border: The Paso Del Norte Metropolitan Region. New
York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010. Print.
Monkkonen, Paavo. "Using Online Satellite Imagery as a Research Tool: Mapping Changing
Patterns of Urbanization in Mexico." Journal of Planning Education and Research 28.2
(2008): 225-36.
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21. Viswanathan, Nanda K., James B. Pick, W. James Hettrick, and Elliot Ellsworth. "An Analysis of
Commonality in the Twin Metropolitan Areas of San Diego, California, and Tijuana,
Mexico." Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 39.1 (2005): 57-79.
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