Alcoa Presentation done for the Student Investment Group at University of North Texas.

1. Alcoa Inc. (AA)
Senior Analyst: Steve
Junior Analyst: Raza Khan,
Mohammed Shammasi,
Alex Blackard

2. Company Information
• Location: New York, New York
• Ticker Symbol: AA
• Beta: 1.03
• Traded on: NYSE
• Current Share Price: $8.93/share
• Market Cap: $11.70 Billion

3. Business Segments
• Upstream Operation
• Includes mining, refining, smelting, and energy production
• Mining Bauxite – bauxite is refined to alumina – alumina is
processed to aluminum
• Prone to aluminum price change
• Midstream Operation
• Converts aluminum into aluminum sheet plates and rolls
• Downstream Operation / Fabrication
• Fall in Al. Prices & premium is good for the fabricators
• Al. premium is the delivery prices
• AA is making acquisition on the fabrication space
Key
Operations
of Alcoa
Global
Primary
Products
(Upstream
Operations)
Engineered
Products
(Downstream
Operations)
Global Rolled
Products
(Midstream
Operations)

4. Constant Innovation
• Created world’s lightest heavy duty wheel
• 47% lighter than steel wheel of same size
• Can Help Save Up To 1,400 Pounds Per Rig
• Created high-strength aerospace-grade aluminum
• Alco is a major supplier to Samsung – Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge
• Smartphone metal frames are expected to grow at 250% by
2016.
• Developed an aluminum foil that’s 1/3rd of the thickness
of human hair – aseptic foil.
• Used by the milk packaging industry in Brazil.

5. Porters 5 forces
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Competitiv Rivalry
Threat of Substitute
Threat of New Entrants
Bargaining Power of
Supplier
Bargaining Power of
Customer
Porter's 5 Forces
Porter's 5 Forces

6. Corporate Governance
C Level Executives Years with Company Shares Owned
CEO Klaus Kleinfeld 8 3.5M
CFO William
Oplinger
15 285k
CLO Audrey Strauss 3 150k
Executive VP Olivier
Jarrault
13 445k
Executive VP Robert
Wilt
16 163k
Board of Directors
• 11 out of 12 are independent
• Board member Ratan Tata
• Indian steel magnate

7. Financial Statements
Analysis

8. Financial Statement Analysis

9. Ratio Comparisons

10. Growth through Acquisitions & Joint
Ventures
• Joint Venture in Saudi Arabia with Ma’aden
• 30 year venture
• Mining, refining and smelting
• RTI Metals
• Global supplier of titanium and specialty metal products and services
• Expected to contribute 1.2 billion in revenue by 2019
• EBITDA margin expected to increase by 25% by 2019
• TITAL
• leader in titanium and aluminum structural castings for aircraft engines
• Firth Rixson
• Leading jet engine component manufacturer
• $2.85 B acquisition
• Expected to add $350 Million to EBITDA in 2016.

11. Industry Report/Competitive Position
• Falling Aluminum
Prices
9.60%
9.20%
10.60%
9.50%
7.80% 7.70% 7.40%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China's GDP Growth
World Aluminum Production
2014
Africa Asia (ex.China)
GCC China
N. America S. America
W. Europe Oceania
Row Est. Un-reported
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China's Aluminum Production YoY Growth
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global Aluminum Demand

12. COMPANY HAS REDUCED SMELTING
CAPACITY
A 29% decrease since 2011.
Due to High Unit Production costs – electricity
costs, labor costs or maintenance expenses.
In 2014, AA closed:
- Portovesme plant (Italy) 150 Tonnes
- Point Henry Plant (Australia) 190
tonnes
- Surinam refinery by 74 KMT

13. Company Transition
•Increasing use of Aluminum in automobile production
•US govt. standards mandate that by 2025, automakers must increase
corporate average fuel economy (CAFÉ) to 54.5 miles from 35.5 by
2025.
•Using aluminum body reduces vehicle’s weight by 30% increasing the
fuel economy.
2014 - $ 1B Multi-year Contracts with Boeing – aluminum sheets and plate
products
2014 -$1.1B 10 Year Pratt & Whitney – more than $2Billion – Jet engine
components
2015 - $1.1 B 9 Year Titanium Contract for Lockheed’s F-35 Fighter Jets
2015 - $1 Billion Parts deal with Airbus – Fastener contract
Aerospace Industry
Automobile Industry
Source: Deloitte
Source: KPMG
Commercial Aircraft orders and production
Global Demand: No. of Passengers Forecast
Source: Fed.
Aviation Admin.

14. Financial Statements ForecastGrowth Rate
Alumina 2.04%
Primary
Metals 0.17%
Global
Roleld
Products 3.94%
Engineered
Products &
Solutions 6.99%
Growth Rate
Alumina 5.69%
Primary
Metals 3.25%
Global
Roleld
Products 3.89%
Engineered
Products &
Solutions 11.64%
25 M Class B
Convertible
Shares @ $1 Par
value
Convertible end
of 2017 @ 10 =
1 Common
Shares
Total $70 M –
Total Common
Stocks = $1.4B
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Balance Sheet Forecast
Total Asset Total Liabilities Total Equity
0.0
5000.0
10000.0
2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue Forecast
Alumina (Upstream Operations)
Primary Metals (Upstream Operations)
Global Roleld Products (Midstream Operations)
Engineered Products & Solutions (Downstream Operations)
0
500
1000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Operating Income Forecast
Alumina (Upstream Operations)
Primary Metals (Upstream Operations)
Global Roleld Products (Midstream Operations)
Engineered Products & Solutions (Downstream Operations)

15. RELATIVE VALUATIONS
AA Norsk Hydro RUSAL
Alum. Co. of
China RIO Tinto CENX Price Range
P/E 14.95 12.01 4.36 13.13 62.36$7.16-21.57
Enterprise Value 29979.1 122949.9 19078.1 24025 107602.2 2264.6
EV/EBITDA 12.55 9.37 11.85 61.34 5.38 10.71$7.4-$16.3

16. Valuation
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
Cost of Equity (ke) 6.68% (CAPM)
Short term Growth Rate 0.2% (ROE * Retention Ratio)
Long-term Growth Rate 0 – 4.8% (Rf + Inflation)
Current DPS $0.12 / Share
Intrinsic Value Range $6.19 - $10.81

17. Discounted Cash Flow
2016 2017 2018 2019
Owner’s Earning 230 1251 1320 1392
WACC Weight Cost
Equity 54.50% 9.76% 5.3%
Debt 39.90% 3.25% 1.3%
Preferred equity 5.60% 9.13% 0.5%
7.1%
Effective Tax Rate 43.31%
Price Range: $ 9.7 – 24.5

18. Alcoa's Valuation- Football Field
Min Max Average Weight
Final
Value
P/E 7.16 21.57 14.365 5% 0.71825
DDM 6.19 10.81 8.5 10% 0.85
EV/EBITDA 7.4 16.3 11.85 5% 0.5925
DCF 9.7 24.5 17.1 80% 13.68
Final
Intrinsic
Value $ 15.84
7.16
6.19
7.4
9.7
21.57
10.81
16.3
24.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
P/E
DDM
EV/EBITDA
DCF
Final Value:
$15.84

19. Final Recommendation
Summary:
1.Efficient Management
2.Big player in the Market
3.Constant Innovation and Transition
to High Margin Segments

20. Business Strategy
• GROWTH BY SALES
• Growth by Acquisitions
• Which ones?
• Which ones?
• Which ones?
• Excellent Management

21. Value Added Business
• Converts primary aluminum into sheets.
• Used in packaging, automotive, and
aerospace industries.

22. Global Leader in Aerospace Industry
Developed more than 90% of all
aerospace alloys.
Churn Rate
Growth Rate
Market Size

23. Du Pont Analysis

24. Industry Ratios & Competitors

25. Total Asset and CFO increasing
25 M Class B
Convertible Shares
@ $1 Par value
Convertible end of
2017 @ 10 = 1
Common Shares
Total $70 M –
Total Common
Stocks = $1.4B
Class B Convertible Shares

26. Building a Multi-Material Company
• Alcoa introduced Aluminum foil in 1910.
• Most Growth Capex towards Value added business
• Still small market presence in emerging markets
such as India and Brazil.

27. Automotive Industry
• Increasing use of Aluminum in automobile
production
• US govt. standards mandate that by 2025,
automakers must increase corporate average fuel
economy (CAFÉ) to 54.5 miles from 35.5 by 2025.
• Using aluminum body reduces vehicle’s weight by
30% increasing the fuel economy.
2014 - $ 1B Multi-year Contracts with Boeing – aluminum sheets and plate products
2014 -$1.1B 10 Year Pratt & Whitney – more than $2Billion – Jet engine components
2015 - $1.1 B 9 Year Titanium Contract for Lockheed’s F-35 Fighter Jets
2015 - $1 Billion Parts deal with Airbus – Fastener contract
Contracts in Place

28. Upstream Company
• World’s largest bauxite and alumina producer
• 4th largest aluminum producer with 3.4 million tons smelting
capacity
• Major supplier in aerospace sector
• Leading supplier in brazing sheet and auto sheet
Innovation:
Currently in talks with major automotive
producers to adopt Micromill products
Micromill products:
• 40% more formable and 30% stronger
than aluminum
• 30% lighter than parts made from high
strength steel
• Reduces time to transform molten
metal into aluminum coil from 20 days
to 20 min.

29. Downstream Segment: Engineered
Products Segment• Fabricates aluminum into custom shapes and sizes for the end users
• Divided into 5 groups
1. Power and propulsion – It manufactures parts for jet engines and
industrial gas turbines
2. Fastening systems – It manufactures fasteners for aerospace and
automotive
3. Buildings and construction systems – It manufactures commercial
architectural systems
4. Wheel and transportation products – It manufactures commercial vehicle
wheels
5. Forgings and extrusions – It manufactures large and complex fabricated
parts for use in various end industries
• World’s largest aluminum-lithium facility in Indiana that’ll produce an alloy
with increased strength ratio. Will be adopted mostly by aerospace
companies.
• Alcoa contracted $100M in revenues for 2017.
Innovation: Invented World’s
lightest wheel – Ultra ONE.
40lb or 47% lighter than
traditional steel wheel.