1. www.mecintelligence.com
Monopiles and jackets are not likely to be right the solution for over 28 % of the 6000
turbines to be installed by 2020, as they wouldn’t find the vessels with right lifting
capacity, necessitating a need for alternative solutions
We analyze the lifting capacity of ve ssels currently in the market against the demand for the lifting
capacity from key foundations designs for the upcoming European offshore wind projects in different
configurations (10 – 60 m depth, 4 MW – 10 MW turbine sizes, 30 – 120 km distance, soft seabed to
rocky seabed, 11 different geographic zones in Europe).
Our analysis shows that if all developers go in for monopiles or jackets – while over 200 turbines (8
MW, 10 MW) needing very high lifting capacity (> 1600 tonnes) will be unable to find any vessels with
adequate lifting capacity, over 1500 turbines (4 MW, 6 MW, 8 MW) are likely to not find the right sized
vessel, and would need to depend on vessels with higher lifting capacities (which would be 30 -60 %
more expensive).
• Over 6000 turbines are likely to be installed in Europe by 2020, out of which 4 MW is
expected to be the dominant turbine size (~60 % of turbines); but with significant traction of 6
MW (26 %) and 8 MW (13 %) turbines, as well.
• With increasing project depths (average 30 m by 2020) and turbine sizes, the foundations of
future are going to be much heavier (in the weight ranges of 800 - 2000 tonnes).
• While vessels required for transportation from port to offshore sites such as barges / jack
barges / tugboats etc. are likely to be in abundant supply, vessels with adequate lifting
capacities required for installation such as heavy lift vessels / jack up vessels / cranes (shear
leg or mono hull) are likely to have a mismatch in the demand supply situation.
• If most of the vessels available in Europe are considered dedicated to wind farm installations
(and not consumed by other offshore construction / oil and gas sector activities), there is likely
to be a major shortage of vessels with the right lifting capacity because of the large number
of projects being constructed in parallel.
• This shortage of the right sized vessels would manifest itself by deployment of bigger and
more expensive lifting vessels leading to a non-optimum demand supply situation –
o Turbines of size 4 MW, 6 MW at depths of 20m, 30m are likely to face a significant
shortage of vessels with the right lifting capacities (800 – 1200 tonnes) during 2017-
2020, as over 1130 turbines would not get optimum vessels. These projects would
need to depend on vessels with bigger lifting capacities (1200 – 1600 tonne or > 1600
tonne), which would be at least 30 – 60 % costlier.
o Turbines of size 6 MW (at 40m, 50 m depth), and of 8 MW (at depths of 30m, 40 m)
are also likely to face a shortage of vessels with the right lifting capacities (1200
tonne – 1600 tonnes) during 2019-2020, as over 300 turbines would not get optimum
vessels, and would need to depend on vessels with bigger lifting capacities (> 1600
tonne), which would be at least 30 % costlier.
o Turbines of size 8 MW (> 40 m depth), and of 10 MW (at > 20 m depth) are likely to
face a shortage of vessels with adequate lifting capacities (> 1600 tonnes) during
2019-2020, as over 200 turbines would not get any vessels.
• This availability risk (shortage of supply) for optimum sized vessels is likely to lead to higher
project costs (by 30-60 %) or significant project delays, necessitating new developments
in alternative / crane free foundation design.