1. Global attention on developments in Afghanistan is now focused on the uncertainties
and confusion surrounding the ongoing American withdrawal. But the suffering
inflicted on the people of Afghanistan by the ambitions of its neighbours, like
Pakistan, and by the rivalries between external powers, notably the Soviet Union and
the US, should not be forgotten. About 4.3 million Afghan refugees fled to Pakistan
and Iran during the Soviet intervention. Soviet casualties included 13,310 killed. The
Soviets departed from Afghanistan in 1992. What followed was a brutal civil war,
pitting the Soviet-backed Najibullah government against the ISI trained, radicalised
Afghan mujahideen, who were joined by 28,000-30,000 radicalised Pakistani
Pashtuns. These were the developments which led to the emergence of the Taliban.
The present American intervention in Afghanistan has lasted 19 years.
Pakistan appears to have forgotten that its Taliban proteges are almost exclusively
Pashtuns, who constitute 42% of Afghanistan’s population. The majority 58% of
Afghanistan’s population are made up of Tajiks (37%), together with relatively
smaller numbers of Uzbeks, Hazaras (Shia), Baloch, Turkmen, and others. The united
resistance was initially against the Soviet Union and thereafter against Pakistan and its
Taliban proteges, who wanted exclusive control. It was Afghanistan’s legendary Tajik
hero, Ahmed Shah Masood, who forged a military grouping called the Northern
Alliance to resist advances by Pakistan and the ISI-backed Taliban. The alliance, in
turn, was given political, military and diplomatic support by India, Iran and Russia.
Emerging from bases in Pakistan, the Taliban moved northwards, only to meet
resistance from the alliance. The Americans started their post 9/11 military
intervention two days after Masood was assassinated. In these circumstances, the
exclusively Pashtun, Afghan Taliban, cannot come to power. They are not only
unacceptable to the non-Pashtuns, who constitute 58% of the population, but also to a
substantial number of Pashtuns who loathe their extremism. But, with the Americans
set to leave, the Taliban and its ISI backers are continuing military operations to
acquire more territory under their control before formal discussions with the
government on a ceasefire. Pakistan’s aim is to have a Taliban-dominated government
which would be beholden to it.
Recent changes in the Afghan Taliban’s leadership, both in Pakistan and in its
negotiating team in Quetta, indicates the emergence of an uncompromising, hardline
new leadership. Pakistan is, however, announcing cosmetic moves to avoid global
2. sanctions, like placing the Taliban chief negotiator in Doha, Mullah Baradar, and
Sirajuddin Haqqani, the head of the ISI’s favourite Afghan Taliban group, the
Haqqani Network, under sanctions. This is laughable, as no one has any doubt that
Haqqani, which operates from North Waziristan in Pakistan, remains Pakistan’s most
important Afghan asset for operations within Afghanistan. There is also little doubt
that in the minds of the Taliban leadership, their greatest achievement has been to
force the sceptical President Trump to pack up and leave Afghanistan. While the
Americans have welcomed the agreement of the Taliban to talk directly to the Afghan
government, the Afghans have surely noted the recent appointment of Mullah
Mohammed Yakub, as a member of the Taliban delegation for talks with the
government. Yakub is the 30-year-old son of the Taliban founder, the late Mullah
Omar, and a hardliner.
Even as American forces prepare to leave Afghanistan, the Taliban are not prepared to
lay down their arms. The conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan government is
set to continue, including in the non-Pashtun northern provinces. The ethnic Hazaras,
Shia descendants of Genghis Khan, have close ties with Iran, which will inevitably
play a more active role in Afghanistan. It is evident that even as the Pentagon prepares
to end active combat operations, there will be pressures on the US to continue
equipping the Afghan armed forces. There will also be moves to persuade the
Americans to provide air support by retaining warplanes and helicopter gunships in
places like the Bagram Base near Kabul, and in Kandahar, while also using carrier-
based airpower. The US and its western allies would also be well advised to provide
the Afghan government adequate financial assistance to have the resources to meet the
Taliban challenge. New Delhi should also have serious discussions with the Taliban to
ensure that the security of our diplomats in Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad and Mazar-e-
Sharif, and for Indian personnel involved in aid projects, is guaranteed.
The recent visit of Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the chairman of the High Council for
National Reconciliation in Afghanistan to India, has been timely and useful. Dr
Abdullah is one of the few individuals who transcends ethnic, cultural and religious
barriers in Afghanistan. His father was Pashtun and his mother a Tajik. More
importantly, he joined Masood in the struggle against the Soviets and the Taliban,
while becoming a trusted associate of the Tajik leader. The Afghan government thus
has a highly experienced and respected political leader to head the government
delegation in talks with the Taliban.
3. The Taliban have been in close touch with China, from well before the US
intervention commenced in Afghanistan. China was then not seen internationally as
being anti-Islamic. The persecution of Uighur Muslims by China is surely known to
the Taliban. Are they going to speak up for their fellow Muslims, or will they remain
silent like their Pakistani mentors? Finally, nowhere have women been treated so
badly and brutally in the modern world as in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. On October
5, Fawzia Koofi, the first woman Deputy Speaker of Afghanistan, was declared a
nominee for the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize. Refusing to accept Taliban bigotry,
she courageously proclaimed, despite threats from the Taliban: ‘Peace means the
ability to live with dignity, justice and freedom. There is no alternative to democracy.’