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QSE Intra-Day Movement
Qatar Commentary
The QSE Index declined 0.4% to close at 10,668.1. Losses were led by the Real Estate
and Industrials indices, falling 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Top losers were Ahli
Bank and Qatar Oman Investment Company, falling 7.9% and 2.6%, respectively.
Among the top gainers, Qatar National Cement Company gained 4.5%, while Mannai
Corporation was up 2.5%.
GCC Commentary
Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index rose 0.9% to close at 8,509.4. Gains were led by the
Capital Goods and Utilities indices, rising 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Saudi Steel
Pipe Co. rose 10.0%, while Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co. was up 9.9%.
Dubai: The DFM Index gained 1.0% to close at 2,539.6. The Consumer Staples and
Discretionary index rose 1.8%, while the Insurance index gained 1.6%. Al Salam
Sudan rose 10.8%, while Aan Digital Services Holding Co. was up 3.6%.
Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index rose marginally to close at 5,020.6. The
Consumer Staples index gained 2.3%, while the Real Estate index rose 2.0%. Union
National Bank gained 6.1%, while Sudatel Telecom. Group Co. was up 5.5%.
Kuwait: The KSE Index declined marginally to close at 4,781.8. The Technology
index fell 11.3%, while the Banks index declined 1.3%. Boubyan International
Industries Holding Co fell 14.1%, while Automated Systems Co. was down 11.3%.
Oman: The MSM Index fell 0.3% to close at 4,166.4. Losses were led by the
Industrial and Financial indices, falling 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Al Anwar
Ceramic Tiles fell 4.0%, while Bank Sohar was down 2.6%.
Bahrain: The BHB Index gained 1.2% to close at 1,390.9. The Commercial Bank
index rose 2.2%, while the Investment index gained 0.4%. Ahli United Bank rose
4.0%, while Al Baraka Banking Group was up 1.6%.
QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Qatar National Cement Company 73.50 4.5 203.5 23.5
Mannai Corporation 57.89 2.5 0.2 5.4
Gulf International Services 16.60 1.9 325.7 (2.4)
Salam International Inv. Ltd. 5.09 1.8 31.2 17.6
Widam Food Company 75.00 1.3 34.4 7.1
QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing 12.15 (0.8) 869.1 (9.0)
Doha Bank 21.99 (0.8) 647.0 (0.9)
Qatar First Bank 4.13 0.0 420.2 1.2
Qatar Insurance Company 39.89 (0.0) 360.5 11.1
Aamal Company 9.60 1.1 336.7 8.6
Market Indicators 27 Jan 19 24 Jan 19 %Chg.
Value Traded (QR mn) 164.4 324.1 (49.3)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 612,655.5 615,867.7 (0.5)
Volume (mn) 5.5 8.1 (31.5)
Number of Transactions 3,965 5,953 (33.4)
Companies Traded 43 44 (2.3)
Market Breadth 15:21 20:22 –
Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E
Total Return 18,796.07 (0.4) (0.4) 3.6 15.7
All Share Index 3,219.72 (0.4) (0.4) 4.6 16.2
Banks 3,898.68 (0.2) (0.2) 1.8 14.4
Industrials 3,412.83 (0.8) (0.8) 6.2 16.1
Transportation 2,187.79 0.1 0.1 6.2 12.7
Real Estate 2,394.35 (1.2) (1.2) 9.5 21.6
Insurance 3,268.92 0.0 0.0 8.7 19.5
Telecoms 1,009.66 0.1 0.1 2.2 40.9
Consumer 7,204.24 (0.1) (0.1) 6.7 14.7
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,046.35 (0.4) (0.4) 4.2 15.7
GCC Top Gainers
##
Exchange Close
#
1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Saudi Investment Saudi Arabia 21.00 8.7 2,646.9 22.7
Mobile Telecom. Co. Saudi Arabia 9.89 5.0 20,023.2 19.6
Yanbu Cement Co. Saudi Arabia 28.60 4.4 644.2 19.2
Ahli United Bank Bahrain 0.79 4.0 3,290.2 14.6
Emaar Economic City Saudi Arabia 8.49 3.9 4,768.1 7.3
GCC Top Losers
##
Exchange Close
#
1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Kuwait Finance House Kuwait 0.60 (3.2) 18,043.7 (1.3)
Bank Sohar Oman 0.11 (2.6) 551.3 1.8
Abu Dhabi Comm. Bank Abu Dhabi 8.94 (2.3) 2,770.4 9.6
Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 0.30 (2.3) 45.1 2.4
Saudi Arabian Mining Co. Saudi Arabia 53.90 (2.0) 622.4 9.3
Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the S&P GCC
Composite Large Mid Cap Index)
QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Ahli Bank 29.01 (7.9) 5.5 3.6
Qatar Oman Investment Co. 5.90 (2.6) 33.8 10.5
Alijarah Holding 9.20 (2.5) 99.2 4.7
Ezdan Holding Group 14.80 (1.9) 290.1 14.0
Industries Qatar 145.03 (1.8) 92.5 8.5
QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD%
QNB Group 198.50 0.0 25,619.4 1.8
Qatar National Cement Company 73.50 4.5 14,924.7 23.5
Qatar Insurance Company 39.89 (0.0) 14,480.7 11.1
Doha Bank 21.99 (0.8) 14,384.5 (0.9)
Industries Qatar 145.03 (1.8) 13,509.0 8.5
Source: Bloomberg (* in QR)
Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD%
Exch. Val. Traded
($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
P/E** P/B**
Dividend
Yield
Qatar* 10,668.14 (0.4) (0.4) 3.6 3.6 45.16 168,296.5 15.7 1.6 4.1
Dubai 2,539.64 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 24.37 92,912.6 7.6 0.9 5.5
Abu Dhabi 5,020.61 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.1 46.55 137,340.3 13.5 1.5 4.8
Saudi Arabia 8,509.43 0.9 0.9 8.7 8.7 939.20 536,797.2 18.3 1.9 3.3
Kuwait 4,781.76 (0.0) (0.0) 0.9 0.9 126.96 33,001.6 16.8 0.8 4.3
Oman 4,166.38 (0.3) (0.3) (3.6) (3.6) 6.13 18,166.6 8.3 0.7 6.2
Bahrain 1,390.89 1.2 1.2 4.0 4.0 11.36 21,264.6 9.0 0.9 5.9
Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Market and Dubai Financial Market (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any)
10,640
10,660
10,680
10,700
10,720
10,740
9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
Page 2 of 6
Qatar Market Commentary
 The QSE Index declined 0.4% to close at 10,668.1. The Real Estate and
Industrials indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling
pressure from Qatari shareholders despite buying support from GCC and
non-Qatari shareholders.
 Ahli Bank and Qatar Oman Investment Company were the top losers,
falling 7.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar
National Cement Company gained 4.5%, while Mannai Corporation was
up 2.5%.
 Volume of shares traded on Sunday fell by 31.5% to 5.5mn from 8.1mn
on Thursday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of
11.8mn, volume for the day was 53% lower. Qatar Aluminium
Manufacturing Company and Doha Bank were the most active stocks,
contributing 15.7% and 11.7% to the total volume, respectively.
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (* as a % of traded value)
Earnings Releases and Earnings Calendar
Earnings Releases
Company Market Currency
Revenue (mn)
4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Operating Profit
(mn) 4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Net Profit
(mn) 4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Saudi Basic Industries Corp. #
Saudi Arabia SR 40.1 -0.5% 6.5 -1.1% 3.2 -12.4%
Advanced Petrochemical Co. Saudi Arabia SR 2,748.0 15.2% 700.0 13.0% 717.0 13.6%
Mobile Telecommunication Co. (Zain) Saudi Arabia SR 7,531.0 3.1% 1,219.0 35.0% 332.0 2,666.7%
Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM, TASI, BHB. (*Financials for FY2018,
#
Figures in billions)
Earnings Calendar
Tickers Company Name Date of reporting 4Q2018 results No. of days remaining Status
IHGS Islamic Holding Group 28-Jan-19 0 Due
MCGS Medicare Group 30-Jan-19 2 Due
QIGD Qatari Investors Group 30-Jan-19 2 Due
QATI Qatar Insurance Company 3-Feb-19 6 Due
CBQK The Commercial Bank 4-Feb-19 7 Due
UDCD United Development Company 6-Feb-19 9 Due
QISI The Group Islamic Insurance Company 10-Feb-19 13 Due
QEWS Qatar Electricity & Water Company 10-Feb-19 13 Due
QIMD Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Company 10-Feb-19 13 Due
IQCD Industries Qatar 11-Feb-19 14 Due
DOHI Doha Insurance Group 13-Feb-19 16 Due
ORDS Ooredoo 13-Feb-19 16 Due
Source: QSE
News
Qatar
 DHBK posts ~51% YoY increase but ~65% QoQ decline in net
profit in 4Q2018, misses our estimate – Doha Bank's (DHBK) net
profit rose ~51% YoY (but declined ~65% on QoQ basis) to
~QR93mn in 4Q2018, missing our estimate of QR186.8mn
(variation of ~-50%). EPS decreased to QR1.97 in FY2018 from
QR3.02 in FY2017. The company’s board of directors will
recommend to the Ordinary General Assembly the distribution
to shareholders of cash dividends amounting to QR1.0 per
share, below our estimate of QR2.0 per share. In FY2018, DHBK
registered net profit of QR830.2mn as compared to QR1.11bn in
FY2017, after taking ‘significant loan loss provision’. DHBK’s
Chairman, Sheikh Fahad bin Mohamed bin Jabor Al-Thani
stated that the interest income significantly grew by 8% as
compared to last year to reach QR3.9bn. The bank’s net
operating income stood at QR2.6bn. Total assets amounted to
QR96bn as on December 31, 2018. Net loans and advances
reached QR59.8bn in end-December 2018. The investment
portfolio amounted to QR20.6bn, registering an increase of
17.4%. Customer deposits stood at QR55.5bn as on December
31, 2018. He also declared that the total shareholder’s equity by
end-2018 reached QR12.7bn, while the return on average
shareholders’ equity was 9%, and the return on average assets
was 0.88%. In a resolution, DHBK’s board of directors decided to
call the Ordinary and Extra Ordinary General Assembly of the
shareholders on March 6, 2019. In the event the quorum is not
met, a second meeting will be held on March 13, 2019. (QSE,
QNBFS Research, Gulf-Times.com)
 QIIK posts ~11% YoY increase but ~41% QoQ decline in net
profit in 4Q2018, misses our estimate – Qatar International
Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR)
Qatari Individuals 38.68% 60.70% (36,197,683.79)
Qatari Institutions 11.52% 13.00% (2,430,990.81)
Qatari 50.20% 73.70% (38,628,674.60)
GCC Individuals 1.76% 1.13% 1,030,620.70
GCC Institutions 5.31% 2.58% 4,490,804.66
GCC 7.07% 3.71% 5,521,425.36
Non-Qatari Individuals 12.53% 8.61% 6,456,518.31
Non-Qatari Institutions 30.19% 13.98% 26,650,730.93
Non-Qatari 42.72% 22.59% 33,107,249.24
Page 3 of 6
Islamic Bank's (QIIK) net profit rose ~11% YoY (but declined
~41% on QoQ basis) to ~QR147mn in 4Q2018, missing our
estimate of QR160.2mn (variation of ~-8%). EPS amounted to
QR5.46 in FY2018 as compared to QR5.35 in FY2017. In FY2018,
QIIK posted net profit of QR882.1mn in 2018, up 6% on the
previous year. The board of directors recommended to the
Ordinary General Assembly of shareholders the distribution of
40% cash dividend, which translates into QR4 per share (in line
with our estimate), subject to the Qatar Central Bank’s
approval. QIIK’s CEO, Abdulbasit Ahmad Al-Shaibei said the
bank’s total assets amounted to QR50.3bn in end-2018
compared to QR46.6bn in end-2017. He said, “Customer
deposits at the end of 2018 reached QR31.1bn. The bank total
equity stood at QR6.8bn, while the capital adequacy under
Basel III registered 16.42%, which reflects the strength of
QIIK’s financial position amid various risks.” Al-Shaibei said,
“QIIK’s results clearly show that we continue to play an active
role in the Qatari economy. Last year’s developments proved its
strength in facing storms and obstacles, no matter how
powerful they were.” (QNBFS Research, QSE, Gulf-Times.com)
 WDAM's bottom line rises ~3% YoY and ~51% QoQ in 4Q2018 –
Widam Food Company's (WDAM) net profit rose ~3% YoY
(~+51% QoQ) to QR28.7mn in 4Q2018. In FY2018, WDAM
reported net profit of QR108.4mn as compared to QR108.1mn in
FY2017. EPS amounted to QR6.02 in FY2018 as compared to
QR6.00 in FY2017. The company’s board of directors proposed
distribution of a cash dividend of 30% of the nominal share
value (QR3.00 per share). (QSE)
 Al Rayan Qatar ETF discloses its financial statements for the
period March 21, 2018 to December 31, 2018 – Al Rayan Qatar
ETF disclosed its financial statements for the period March 21,
2018 to December 31, 2018. The statements showed that the
net asset value as of December 31, 2018 amounted to
QR538,621,867, representing QR23.939 per unit. In addition, Al
Rayan Qatar ETF is expected to pay dividends during the
second quarter of 2019. (QSE)
 IQCD’s board meets to discuss the financial statements ended
December 31, 2018 on February 11, 2019 – Industries Qatar
(IQCD) announced that its board of directors will meet on
February 11, 2019 to discuss and adopt financial statements of
the company for the period ended December 31, 2018. (QSE)
 CI affirms Qatar’s foreign and local currency issuer ratings;
upgrades outlook to 'Stable' – Capital Intelligence (CI), the
international credit rating agency, has affirmed Qatar’s long-
term foreign and local currency issuer ratings at ‘AA-’ and
short-term foreign and local currency ratings at ‘A1+’, while
upgrading the outlook on them to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’. The
ratings and ‘Stable’ outlook reflect substantial improvements in
the budget and current account balances in 2018, as well as CI’s
expectation that the country’s fiscal and external positions will
remain relatively stable in the coming years. Qatar’s ratings
continue to be primarily supported by very large hydrocarbon
reserves and substantial government assets under the
management of Qatar Investment Authority, the sovereign
wealth fund. The budget balance turned positive in 2018, as
hydrocarbon revenues increased following a rebound in oil and
gas prices, it stated, adding the overall budget balance is
estimated to have recorded a surplus of 3.6% of GDP compared
to a deficit of 1.6% in 2017. While CI projects a slight decline in
hydrocarbon revenues in 2019 and 2020, the public finances are
expected to benefit from expenditure restraint and rising non-
hydrocarbon revenues following the implementation of taxes
on certain goods in January 2019. Highlighting that the
improvement in the budget balance has helped to stabilize
government debt metrics, the rating agency stated gross
central government debt is estimated at a moderate 53.4% of
GDP against 53.8% in 2017, and is expected to edge slightly
lower over the next two years. CI considers the large size of the
domestic banking sector as an important implicit contingent
liability for the government, although potential risks to the
public finances are currently mitigated by the strong condition
of the banking sector. (Gulf-Times.com)
 Qatar posts 7% YoY jump in trade surplus to QR15.88bn in
December 2018 – A precipitous expansion in shipments to
South Korea and China helped Qatar's total exports to make
modest growth, thus leading to an about 7% YoY rise in trade
surplus to QR15.88bn in December 2018, according to official
estimates. However, the country's trade surplus registered a 2%
fall on monthly basis, according to the figures released by the
Planning and Statistics Authority. In absolute terms, South
Korea, Japan, China, India and Singapore were among the
largest export markets of Qatar; while imports mainly came
from the US, China, the UK, Germany and India in the review
period. In December 2018, total exports of goods (including
exports of goods of domestic origin and re-exports) amounted to
QR25.43bn, showing a decrease of 1.9% compared to December
2017 and a 1.1% against November 2018. The exports of
petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons soared 15.9%
YoY to QR16.63bn, while those of crude declined 47.6% to
QR3.38bn, non-crude by 2.4% to QR1.66bn and other
commodities by 2.1% to QR2.76bn. On monthly basis, the
country's shipments of petroleum gases and other commodities
had risen 7.7% and 3.1%, while those of crude and non-crude
declined 22.6% and 17.5%, respectively. The country's re-
exports amounted to QR1bn in December 2018, which
witnessed a 69% growth on yearly basis, but fell 17.4% MoM.
Qatar's total imports (valued at cost insurance and freight)
amounted to QR9.54bn, which showed a 13.3% contraction
against December 2017, but was up 0.3% MoM. (Gulf-
Times.com)
 Qatar tops 2018 Global Entrepreneurship Index – Qatar topped
the global entrepreneurship environment, according to Global
Entrepreneurship Monitor’s (GEM) report. The GEM, which
compiles independent reports, identifies the realities of
entrepreneurship in 54 countries around the world, in line with
global best practices, and sets the results for governments and
decision-makers to develop the entrepreneurial environment in
each country. Qatar Development Bank, a GEM member, stated
the report showed that the local environment index for
business entrepreneurship in Qatar registered about 6.7 points
out of 10 points. Qatar is ranked first among all countries
participating in the 2018 report, followed by Indonesia and the
Netherlands with about 6.6 and 6.5 points respectively. The
report showed an overall improvement in all sub-indices of
entrepreneurship among the population compared to 2017 and
2018. It reflected the cohesion of positive attitudes of the
community towards entrepreneurship as 68.2% of the
Page 4 of 6
population believes that entrepreneurship is a good
professional option, and about 76.7% of the population sees
high standing for entrepreneurs in the country. (Qatar Tribune)
 Forbes: Doha named one of 'Top 15 Places to Travel in 2019' –
Doha has been named as one of the 'Top 15 Places to Travel in
2019' on a list published recently by Forbes. An accompanying
write-up on the city also notes that careful attention to cultural
preservation makes Doha feel more authentic than nearby
Dubai. This recognition comes shortly after the Qatari capital
featured on The New York Times' list of ‘52 Places to Go in
2019’. The 'Top 15 Places to Travel in 2019' list, published by
Forbes and compiled by one of its contributors - travel website
Fathom, noted that, “Qatar has had to become more and more
self-reliant since 2017 due to a highly political Saudi blockade
that made it harder for goods and travelers from other points in
the Middle East to enter the country.” (Gulf-Times.com)
International
 BoJ’s minutes showed disagreement over level of bond yields –
Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers disagreed over the
appropriate level of bond yields, minutes from the central
bank’s meeting last month, in a sign of the strain on the BoJ’s
monetary framework as the global economy weakens. One
member said long-term yields should be allowed to temporarily
turn negative, according to minutes of the central bank’s
December 19-20 meeting. Another member agreed, saying
yields have fallen due to worries about the US-Sino trade war
and that conducting market operations to raise yields would
tighten monetary policy. Yet another member said BoJ should
strengthen policy to reach its 2% inflation target. In contrast,
one member said long-term yields need to be higher to ease the
burden on the financial system and make corporate bonds more
attractive to investors. This member also said revising BoJ’s
government bond purchases is one future option. Rising
pressure from the trade war between China and the US - Japan’s
biggest trading partners - is weighing on the world’s third-
largest economy and undermining years of efforts by
policymakers to foster durable growth. At the meeting, BOJ
kept the policy on hold. At a subsequent meeting on January 22-
23, the central bank cut its inflation forecasts but left its
massive monetary easing in place. The BoJ’s massive
government debt purchases have had some unintended
consequences, as years of low rates hurt financial institutions’
profits. The central bank has also amassed a lot of exchange-
traded funds in its marathon asset buying spree, which risks
distorting financial markets. Many BoJ policymakers are wary
of ramping up stimulus, though external shocks or a sudden
spike in the Yen could force the central bank to do just that if
the economy is at risk of sliding into recession. (Reuters)
 China's December industrial profits shrink again on weak
demand, trade headwinds; full year up 10.3% – Earnings at
China’s industrial firms shrank for a second straight month in
December on slowing prices and sluggish factory activity, piling
more pressure on an economy in the grips of its slowest growth
in nearly three decades. The downbeat data points to more
trouble ahead for the country’s vast manufacturing sector,
which is already struggling with a decline in orders, job layoffs
and factory closures amid a bitter trade dispute with the US.
China’s economic growth slipped to 6.6% last year, the weakest
expansion in 28 years, stoking fears of a sharper slowdown if
the current US-Sino trade talks fail to stop further tariffs from
being implemented after a 90-day truce. Profits in December fell
1.9% from a year earlier to CNY680.8bn, weighed down by
weak factory-gate prices and soft demand. This is on top of a
decline of 1.8% in November - the first contraction in profits in
nearly three years. For the full year, profits rose 10.3% to
CNY6.64tn in 2018, easing from 2017’s robust pace of 21%, the
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated. (Reuters)
Regional
 MENA will remain attractive to global investors in 2019 –
MENA fixed income space remained relatively calm against
volatile market moves in 2018. The GCC benchmark index
returned 0.30% in 2018 compared to -1.72% for the emerging
market benchmark JP Morgan CEMBI Index and -1.20% for the
Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index. Looking ahead to
2019, despite likely challenges, international bond investors
can still benefit from a higher allocation to MENA markets.
KAMCO Research, in its annual report on ‘MENA Debt’,
attributed the region’s ‘economic liberalization’ and regulatory
reforms as compelling reasons for institutional investors to
invest in the region. According to KAMCO, the GCC’s share of
global GDP is expected to increase from 1.8% in 2015 to 2.0% in
2019, while its share of emerging markets GDP is expected to
increase from 4.7% to 5.0%. Debt-to GDP ratios among most
GCC issuers remain very healthy, especially when compared to
similarly rated emerging market peers, despite some having
risen sharply. (Peninsula Qatar)
 Saudi Aramco to pay $1.6bn for stake in South Korea's Hyundai
Oilbank – Saudi Aramco plans to buy a stake of up to 19.9% of
South Korean refiner, Hyundai Oilbank from Hyundai Heavy
Industries Holdings, for $1.61bn. South Korea is a major market
for Saudi Aramco, the biggest shareholder of its No.3 refiner, S-
Oil Corp. The deal should help Saudi Aramco boost sales of
crude to Hyundai Oilbank, South Korea’s smallest refiner by
capacity. Its parent, which now owns 91.13% of Hyundai
Oilbank, stated that it has planned to reconsider the stock
market listing of the refinery arm after completing the stake
sale, possibly this year. Saudi Aramco plans to value Hyundai
Oilbank at KRW10tn, or KRW36,000 per share, the parent firm
stated. Sources said that the company plans to offer a discount
of 10% to Saudi Aramco in a block deal that will require board
approval from both firms. “Hyundai Heavy is selling the stake
at a good price,” said Yoon Tae-ho, an analyst at Korea
Investment & Securities, adding that the valuation was higher
than the market expected. (Reuters)
 Saudi Arabia’s unemployment at 12.8% in 3Q2018 –
Unemployment among Saudi Arabian citizens eased marginally
to 12.8% in the third quarter of 2018, official figures showed.
The jobless rate first hit 12.9%, the highest level recorded by
the statistics agency in data going back to 1999, in the first
quarter of 2018, as private employers were hit by a new sales
tax and a domestic fuel price hike. (Reuters)
 SABIC says challenges remain, views Saudi Aramco deal
positively – Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) expects
to face challenges this year due to uncertainty over the impact
of a global trade war on the US and China, its major markets,
the company’s CEO, Yousef Al-Benyan said. However, the
Page 5 of 6
world’s fourth-biggest petrochemicals company stated that it
has the ability to deal with such challenges and started to see
stabilization in prices of some products after a steep decline
toward the end of 2018. The company attributed the fall to
lower average selling prices and a decrease in the share of
results of associates. “We’ve seen stabilization for some of the
prices, still there are some challenges ahead of us. SABIC will
continue to boost its presence in its major markets, the US and
China. We are part of the global economic system, we are
always affected by challenges but we are able to adapt with
these challenges in the best way,” he said. (Reuters)
 Saudi Investment Bank denies plan to merge with local lender –
Saudi Investment Bank denied it is considering or holding talks
for a potential merger. Referring to social media reports about a
possible merger with a local lender, “the board of directors
denies this since there has been no talk about this within the
bank or with any other party,” according to a statement.
(Bloomberg)
 NBQ's net profit rises to AED409.0mn in FY2018 – National
Bank of Umm Al-Qaiwain (NBQ) recorded net profit of
AED409.0mn in FY2018 as compared to AED369.8mn in
FY2017. Net operating profit came in at AED448.9mn as
compared to AED350.4mn in FY2017. EPS came in at AED0.22
in FY2018 as compared to AED0.20 in FY2017. Total assets
stood at AED14.7bn at the end of December 31, 2018 as
compared to AED14.1bn at the end of December 31, 2017.
Customer loans and advances reached AED8.9bn and customer
deposits increased to AED9.8bn. The bank continued to
maintain strong liquidity of 33.71%. The bank continues to
have a healthy capital adequacy ratio as well as Tier-1 ratio at
36.73% and 35.59%, respectively in FY2018. (ADX)
 ADNOC seals $5.8bn refining and trading deal with ENI, OMV –
Italy’s Eni and Austria’s OMV have agreed to pay a combined
$5.8bn to take stake in Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s
(ADNOC) refining business and establish a new trading
operation owned by the three partners. The transaction, which
expands ADNOC’s access to European markets, furthers Eni’s
diversification away from Africa and gives OMV a downstream
oil business outside Europe. It was hailed as a one of a kind deal
by ADNOC’s CEO, Sultan Al-Jaber. “The whole oil and gas
industry hasn’t seen a transaction of this size and
sophistication,” he said. Under the agreement, Eni and OMV
will acquire a 20% and a 15% share, respectively, in ADNOC
Refining, with ADNOC owning the remaining 65%, the three
companies stated. The partners will own the same proportions
of the joint trading venture, they added. OMV stated that it
would pay around $2.5bn, while Eni stated that it would pay
around $3.3bn, giving ADNOC Refining, which has a total
refining capacity of 922,000 barrels per day, an enterprise value
of $19.3bn. The agreement includes output from the Ruwais
Refinery, the fourth largest single site refinery in the world.
(Reuters)
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and
opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or
financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of
the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment
decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be
accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect.
For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a
result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also
express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in
part without permission from QNBFS.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 6 of 6
Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns)
45.0
70.0
95.0
120.0
Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
QSE Index S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC
0.9%
(0.4%)
(0.0%)
1.2%
(0.3%)
0.0%
1.0%
(0.7%)
0.0%
0.7%
1.4%
SaudiArabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%*
Gold/Ounce 1,303.15 1.7 1.7 1.6 MSCI World Index 2,001.86 0.9 0.1 6.3
Silver/Ounce 15.75 2.8 2.6 1.6 DJ Industrial 24,737.20 0.7 0.1 6.0
Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 61.64 0.9 (1.7) 14.6 S&P 500 2,664.76 0.8 (0.2) 6.3
Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) 53.69 1.1 (0.2) 18.2 NASDAQ 100 7,164.86 1.3 0.1 8.0
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 3.10 (1.9) (9.6) (2.7) STOXX 600 357.84 1.6 0.6 5.6
LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 68.25 0.2 (0.7) 7.5 DAX 11,281.79 2.3 1.1 6.5
LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 70.00 0.4 4.3 0.0 FTSE 100 6,809.22 1.1 (0.1) 4.6
Euro 1.14 0.9 0.4 (0.5) CAC 40 4,925.82 2.1 1.5 3.7
Yen 109.55 (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) Nikkei 20,773.56 0.9 0.6 4.4
GBP 1.32 1.0 2.5 3.5 MSCI EM 1,032.34 1.3 1.4 6.9
CHF 1.01 0.3 0.2 (1.2) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,601.72 1.0 0.7 6.3
AUD 0.72 1.2 0.2 1.8 HANG SENG 27,569.19 1.7 1.7 6.5
USD Index 95.79 (0.8) (0.6) (0.4) BSE SENSEX 36,025.54 (0.2) (0.5) (1.8)
RUB 66.00 0.3 (0.4) (5.3) Bovespa 97,677.19 0.0 1.5 14.2
BRL 0.26 (0.0) (0.5) 2.8 RTS 1,192.02 0.3 1.3 11.5
88.2
83.7
79.0

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QNBFS Daily Market Report January 28, 2019

  • 1. Page 1 of 6 QSE Intra-Day Movement Qatar Commentary The QSE Index declined 0.4% to close at 10,668.1. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Industrials indices, falling 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Top losers were Ahli Bank and Qatar Oman Investment Company, falling 7.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar National Cement Company gained 4.5%, while Mannai Corporation was up 2.5%. GCC Commentary Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index rose 0.9% to close at 8,509.4. Gains were led by the Capital Goods and Utilities indices, rising 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Saudi Steel Pipe Co. rose 10.0%, while Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co. was up 9.9%. Dubai: The DFM Index gained 1.0% to close at 2,539.6. The Consumer Staples and Discretionary index rose 1.8%, while the Insurance index gained 1.6%. Al Salam Sudan rose 10.8%, while Aan Digital Services Holding Co. was up 3.6%. Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index rose marginally to close at 5,020.6. The Consumer Staples index gained 2.3%, while the Real Estate index rose 2.0%. Union National Bank gained 6.1%, while Sudatel Telecom. Group Co. was up 5.5%. Kuwait: The KSE Index declined marginally to close at 4,781.8. The Technology index fell 11.3%, while the Banks index declined 1.3%. Boubyan International Industries Holding Co fell 14.1%, while Automated Systems Co. was down 11.3%. Oman: The MSM Index fell 0.3% to close at 4,166.4. Losses were led by the Industrial and Financial indices, falling 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Al Anwar Ceramic Tiles fell 4.0%, while Bank Sohar was down 2.6%. Bahrain: The BHB Index gained 1.2% to close at 1,390.9. The Commercial Bank index rose 2.2%, while the Investment index gained 0.4%. Ahli United Bank rose 4.0%, while Al Baraka Banking Group was up 1.6%. QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar National Cement Company 73.50 4.5 203.5 23.5 Mannai Corporation 57.89 2.5 0.2 5.4 Gulf International Services 16.60 1.9 325.7 (2.4) Salam International Inv. Ltd. 5.09 1.8 31.2 17.6 Widam Food Company 75.00 1.3 34.4 7.1 QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing 12.15 (0.8) 869.1 (9.0) Doha Bank 21.99 (0.8) 647.0 (0.9) Qatar First Bank 4.13 0.0 420.2 1.2 Qatar Insurance Company 39.89 (0.0) 360.5 11.1 Aamal Company 9.60 1.1 336.7 8.6 Market Indicators 27 Jan 19 24 Jan 19 %Chg. Value Traded (QR mn) 164.4 324.1 (49.3) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 612,655.5 615,867.7 (0.5) Volume (mn) 5.5 8.1 (31.5) Number of Transactions 3,965 5,953 (33.4) Companies Traded 43 44 (2.3) Market Breadth 15:21 20:22 – Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E Total Return 18,796.07 (0.4) (0.4) 3.6 15.7 All Share Index 3,219.72 (0.4) (0.4) 4.6 16.2 Banks 3,898.68 (0.2) (0.2) 1.8 14.4 Industrials 3,412.83 (0.8) (0.8) 6.2 16.1 Transportation 2,187.79 0.1 0.1 6.2 12.7 Real Estate 2,394.35 (1.2) (1.2) 9.5 21.6 Insurance 3,268.92 0.0 0.0 8.7 19.5 Telecoms 1,009.66 0.1 0.1 2.2 40.9 Consumer 7,204.24 (0.1) (0.1) 6.7 14.7 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,046.35 (0.4) (0.4) 4.2 15.7 GCC Top Gainers ## Exchange Close # 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Saudi Investment Saudi Arabia 21.00 8.7 2,646.9 22.7 Mobile Telecom. Co. Saudi Arabia 9.89 5.0 20,023.2 19.6 Yanbu Cement Co. Saudi Arabia 28.60 4.4 644.2 19.2 Ahli United Bank Bahrain 0.79 4.0 3,290.2 14.6 Emaar Economic City Saudi Arabia 8.49 3.9 4,768.1 7.3 GCC Top Losers ## Exchange Close # 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Kuwait Finance House Kuwait 0.60 (3.2) 18,043.7 (1.3) Bank Sohar Oman 0.11 (2.6) 551.3 1.8 Abu Dhabi Comm. Bank Abu Dhabi 8.94 (2.3) 2,770.4 9.6 Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 0.30 (2.3) 45.1 2.4 Saudi Arabian Mining Co. Saudi Arabia 53.90 (2.0) 622.4 9.3 Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the S&P GCC Composite Large Mid Cap Index) QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Ahli Bank 29.01 (7.9) 5.5 3.6 Qatar Oman Investment Co. 5.90 (2.6) 33.8 10.5 Alijarah Holding 9.20 (2.5) 99.2 4.7 Ezdan Holding Group 14.80 (1.9) 290.1 14.0 Industries Qatar 145.03 (1.8) 92.5 8.5 QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD% QNB Group 198.50 0.0 25,619.4 1.8 Qatar National Cement Company 73.50 4.5 14,924.7 23.5 Qatar Insurance Company 39.89 (0.0) 14,480.7 11.1 Doha Bank 21.99 (0.8) 14,384.5 (0.9) Industries Qatar 145.03 (1.8) 13,509.0 8.5 Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar* 10,668.14 (0.4) (0.4) 3.6 3.6 45.16 168,296.5 15.7 1.6 4.1 Dubai 2,539.64 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 24.37 92,912.6 7.6 0.9 5.5 Abu Dhabi 5,020.61 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.1 46.55 137,340.3 13.5 1.5 4.8 Saudi Arabia 8,509.43 0.9 0.9 8.7 8.7 939.20 536,797.2 18.3 1.9 3.3 Kuwait 4,781.76 (0.0) (0.0) 0.9 0.9 126.96 33,001.6 16.8 0.8 4.3 Oman 4,166.38 (0.3) (0.3) (3.6) (3.6) 6.13 18,166.6 8.3 0.7 6.2 Bahrain 1,390.89 1.2 1.2 4.0 4.0 11.36 21,264.6 9.0 0.9 5.9 Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Market and Dubai Financial Market (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) 10,640 10,660 10,680 10,700 10,720 10,740 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
  • 2. Page 2 of 6 Qatar Market Commentary  The QSE Index declined 0.4% to close at 10,668.1. The Real Estate and Industrials indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling pressure from Qatari shareholders despite buying support from GCC and non-Qatari shareholders.  Ahli Bank and Qatar Oman Investment Company were the top losers, falling 7.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar National Cement Company gained 4.5%, while Mannai Corporation was up 2.5%.  Volume of shares traded on Sunday fell by 31.5% to 5.5mn from 8.1mn on Thursday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 11.8mn, volume for the day was 53% lower. Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company and Doha Bank were the most active stocks, contributing 15.7% and 11.7% to the total volume, respectively. Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (* as a % of traded value) Earnings Releases and Earnings Calendar Earnings Releases Company Market Currency Revenue (mn) 4Q2018 % Change YoY Operating Profit (mn) 4Q2018 % Change YoY Net Profit (mn) 4Q2018 % Change YoY Saudi Basic Industries Corp. # Saudi Arabia SR 40.1 -0.5% 6.5 -1.1% 3.2 -12.4% Advanced Petrochemical Co. Saudi Arabia SR 2,748.0 15.2% 700.0 13.0% 717.0 13.6% Mobile Telecommunication Co. (Zain) Saudi Arabia SR 7,531.0 3.1% 1,219.0 35.0% 332.0 2,666.7% Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM, TASI, BHB. (*Financials for FY2018, # Figures in billions) Earnings Calendar Tickers Company Name Date of reporting 4Q2018 results No. of days remaining Status IHGS Islamic Holding Group 28-Jan-19 0 Due MCGS Medicare Group 30-Jan-19 2 Due QIGD Qatari Investors Group 30-Jan-19 2 Due QATI Qatar Insurance Company 3-Feb-19 6 Due CBQK The Commercial Bank 4-Feb-19 7 Due UDCD United Development Company 6-Feb-19 9 Due QISI The Group Islamic Insurance Company 10-Feb-19 13 Due QEWS Qatar Electricity & Water Company 10-Feb-19 13 Due QIMD Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Company 10-Feb-19 13 Due IQCD Industries Qatar 11-Feb-19 14 Due DOHI Doha Insurance Group 13-Feb-19 16 Due ORDS Ooredoo 13-Feb-19 16 Due Source: QSE News Qatar  DHBK posts ~51% YoY increase but ~65% QoQ decline in net profit in 4Q2018, misses our estimate – Doha Bank's (DHBK) net profit rose ~51% YoY (but declined ~65% on QoQ basis) to ~QR93mn in 4Q2018, missing our estimate of QR186.8mn (variation of ~-50%). EPS decreased to QR1.97 in FY2018 from QR3.02 in FY2017. The company’s board of directors will recommend to the Ordinary General Assembly the distribution to shareholders of cash dividends amounting to QR1.0 per share, below our estimate of QR2.0 per share. In FY2018, DHBK registered net profit of QR830.2mn as compared to QR1.11bn in FY2017, after taking ‘significant loan loss provision’. DHBK’s Chairman, Sheikh Fahad bin Mohamed bin Jabor Al-Thani stated that the interest income significantly grew by 8% as compared to last year to reach QR3.9bn. The bank’s net operating income stood at QR2.6bn. Total assets amounted to QR96bn as on December 31, 2018. Net loans and advances reached QR59.8bn in end-December 2018. The investment portfolio amounted to QR20.6bn, registering an increase of 17.4%. Customer deposits stood at QR55.5bn as on December 31, 2018. He also declared that the total shareholder’s equity by end-2018 reached QR12.7bn, while the return on average shareholders’ equity was 9%, and the return on average assets was 0.88%. In a resolution, DHBK’s board of directors decided to call the Ordinary and Extra Ordinary General Assembly of the shareholders on March 6, 2019. In the event the quorum is not met, a second meeting will be held on March 13, 2019. (QSE, QNBFS Research, Gulf-Times.com)  QIIK posts ~11% YoY increase but ~41% QoQ decline in net profit in 4Q2018, misses our estimate – Qatar International Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari Individuals 38.68% 60.70% (36,197,683.79) Qatari Institutions 11.52% 13.00% (2,430,990.81) Qatari 50.20% 73.70% (38,628,674.60) GCC Individuals 1.76% 1.13% 1,030,620.70 GCC Institutions 5.31% 2.58% 4,490,804.66 GCC 7.07% 3.71% 5,521,425.36 Non-Qatari Individuals 12.53% 8.61% 6,456,518.31 Non-Qatari Institutions 30.19% 13.98% 26,650,730.93 Non-Qatari 42.72% 22.59% 33,107,249.24
  • 3. Page 3 of 6 Islamic Bank's (QIIK) net profit rose ~11% YoY (but declined ~41% on QoQ basis) to ~QR147mn in 4Q2018, missing our estimate of QR160.2mn (variation of ~-8%). EPS amounted to QR5.46 in FY2018 as compared to QR5.35 in FY2017. In FY2018, QIIK posted net profit of QR882.1mn in 2018, up 6% on the previous year. The board of directors recommended to the Ordinary General Assembly of shareholders the distribution of 40% cash dividend, which translates into QR4 per share (in line with our estimate), subject to the Qatar Central Bank’s approval. QIIK’s CEO, Abdulbasit Ahmad Al-Shaibei said the bank’s total assets amounted to QR50.3bn in end-2018 compared to QR46.6bn in end-2017. He said, “Customer deposits at the end of 2018 reached QR31.1bn. The bank total equity stood at QR6.8bn, while the capital adequacy under Basel III registered 16.42%, which reflects the strength of QIIK’s financial position amid various risks.” Al-Shaibei said, “QIIK’s results clearly show that we continue to play an active role in the Qatari economy. Last year’s developments proved its strength in facing storms and obstacles, no matter how powerful they were.” (QNBFS Research, QSE, Gulf-Times.com)  WDAM's bottom line rises ~3% YoY and ~51% QoQ in 4Q2018 – Widam Food Company's (WDAM) net profit rose ~3% YoY (~+51% QoQ) to QR28.7mn in 4Q2018. In FY2018, WDAM reported net profit of QR108.4mn as compared to QR108.1mn in FY2017. EPS amounted to QR6.02 in FY2018 as compared to QR6.00 in FY2017. The company’s board of directors proposed distribution of a cash dividend of 30% of the nominal share value (QR3.00 per share). (QSE)  Al Rayan Qatar ETF discloses its financial statements for the period March 21, 2018 to December 31, 2018 – Al Rayan Qatar ETF disclosed its financial statements for the period March 21, 2018 to December 31, 2018. The statements showed that the net asset value as of December 31, 2018 amounted to QR538,621,867, representing QR23.939 per unit. In addition, Al Rayan Qatar ETF is expected to pay dividends during the second quarter of 2019. (QSE)  IQCD’s board meets to discuss the financial statements ended December 31, 2018 on February 11, 2019 – Industries Qatar (IQCD) announced that its board of directors will meet on February 11, 2019 to discuss and adopt financial statements of the company for the period ended December 31, 2018. (QSE)  CI affirms Qatar’s foreign and local currency issuer ratings; upgrades outlook to 'Stable' – Capital Intelligence (CI), the international credit rating agency, has affirmed Qatar’s long- term foreign and local currency issuer ratings at ‘AA-’ and short-term foreign and local currency ratings at ‘A1+’, while upgrading the outlook on them to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’. The ratings and ‘Stable’ outlook reflect substantial improvements in the budget and current account balances in 2018, as well as CI’s expectation that the country’s fiscal and external positions will remain relatively stable in the coming years. Qatar’s ratings continue to be primarily supported by very large hydrocarbon reserves and substantial government assets under the management of Qatar Investment Authority, the sovereign wealth fund. The budget balance turned positive in 2018, as hydrocarbon revenues increased following a rebound in oil and gas prices, it stated, adding the overall budget balance is estimated to have recorded a surplus of 3.6% of GDP compared to a deficit of 1.6% in 2017. While CI projects a slight decline in hydrocarbon revenues in 2019 and 2020, the public finances are expected to benefit from expenditure restraint and rising non- hydrocarbon revenues following the implementation of taxes on certain goods in January 2019. Highlighting that the improvement in the budget balance has helped to stabilize government debt metrics, the rating agency stated gross central government debt is estimated at a moderate 53.4% of GDP against 53.8% in 2017, and is expected to edge slightly lower over the next two years. CI considers the large size of the domestic banking sector as an important implicit contingent liability for the government, although potential risks to the public finances are currently mitigated by the strong condition of the banking sector. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar posts 7% YoY jump in trade surplus to QR15.88bn in December 2018 – A precipitous expansion in shipments to South Korea and China helped Qatar's total exports to make modest growth, thus leading to an about 7% YoY rise in trade surplus to QR15.88bn in December 2018, according to official estimates. However, the country's trade surplus registered a 2% fall on monthly basis, according to the figures released by the Planning and Statistics Authority. In absolute terms, South Korea, Japan, China, India and Singapore were among the largest export markets of Qatar; while imports mainly came from the US, China, the UK, Germany and India in the review period. In December 2018, total exports of goods (including exports of goods of domestic origin and re-exports) amounted to QR25.43bn, showing a decrease of 1.9% compared to December 2017 and a 1.1% against November 2018. The exports of petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons soared 15.9% YoY to QR16.63bn, while those of crude declined 47.6% to QR3.38bn, non-crude by 2.4% to QR1.66bn and other commodities by 2.1% to QR2.76bn. On monthly basis, the country's shipments of petroleum gases and other commodities had risen 7.7% and 3.1%, while those of crude and non-crude declined 22.6% and 17.5%, respectively. The country's re- exports amounted to QR1bn in December 2018, which witnessed a 69% growth on yearly basis, but fell 17.4% MoM. Qatar's total imports (valued at cost insurance and freight) amounted to QR9.54bn, which showed a 13.3% contraction against December 2017, but was up 0.3% MoM. (Gulf- Times.com)  Qatar tops 2018 Global Entrepreneurship Index – Qatar topped the global entrepreneurship environment, according to Global Entrepreneurship Monitor’s (GEM) report. The GEM, which compiles independent reports, identifies the realities of entrepreneurship in 54 countries around the world, in line with global best practices, and sets the results for governments and decision-makers to develop the entrepreneurial environment in each country. Qatar Development Bank, a GEM member, stated the report showed that the local environment index for business entrepreneurship in Qatar registered about 6.7 points out of 10 points. Qatar is ranked first among all countries participating in the 2018 report, followed by Indonesia and the Netherlands with about 6.6 and 6.5 points respectively. The report showed an overall improvement in all sub-indices of entrepreneurship among the population compared to 2017 and 2018. It reflected the cohesion of positive attitudes of the community towards entrepreneurship as 68.2% of the
  • 4. Page 4 of 6 population believes that entrepreneurship is a good professional option, and about 76.7% of the population sees high standing for entrepreneurs in the country. (Qatar Tribune)  Forbes: Doha named one of 'Top 15 Places to Travel in 2019' – Doha has been named as one of the 'Top 15 Places to Travel in 2019' on a list published recently by Forbes. An accompanying write-up on the city also notes that careful attention to cultural preservation makes Doha feel more authentic than nearby Dubai. This recognition comes shortly after the Qatari capital featured on The New York Times' list of ‘52 Places to Go in 2019’. The 'Top 15 Places to Travel in 2019' list, published by Forbes and compiled by one of its contributors - travel website Fathom, noted that, “Qatar has had to become more and more self-reliant since 2017 due to a highly political Saudi blockade that made it harder for goods and travelers from other points in the Middle East to enter the country.” (Gulf-Times.com) International  BoJ’s minutes showed disagreement over level of bond yields – Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers disagreed over the appropriate level of bond yields, minutes from the central bank’s meeting last month, in a sign of the strain on the BoJ’s monetary framework as the global economy weakens. One member said long-term yields should be allowed to temporarily turn negative, according to minutes of the central bank’s December 19-20 meeting. Another member agreed, saying yields have fallen due to worries about the US-Sino trade war and that conducting market operations to raise yields would tighten monetary policy. Yet another member said BoJ should strengthen policy to reach its 2% inflation target. In contrast, one member said long-term yields need to be higher to ease the burden on the financial system and make corporate bonds more attractive to investors. This member also said revising BoJ’s government bond purchases is one future option. Rising pressure from the trade war between China and the US - Japan’s biggest trading partners - is weighing on the world’s third- largest economy and undermining years of efforts by policymakers to foster durable growth. At the meeting, BOJ kept the policy on hold. At a subsequent meeting on January 22- 23, the central bank cut its inflation forecasts but left its massive monetary easing in place. The BoJ’s massive government debt purchases have had some unintended consequences, as years of low rates hurt financial institutions’ profits. The central bank has also amassed a lot of exchange- traded funds in its marathon asset buying spree, which risks distorting financial markets. Many BoJ policymakers are wary of ramping up stimulus, though external shocks or a sudden spike in the Yen could force the central bank to do just that if the economy is at risk of sliding into recession. (Reuters)  China's December industrial profits shrink again on weak demand, trade headwinds; full year up 10.3% – Earnings at China’s industrial firms shrank for a second straight month in December on slowing prices and sluggish factory activity, piling more pressure on an economy in the grips of its slowest growth in nearly three decades. The downbeat data points to more trouble ahead for the country’s vast manufacturing sector, which is already struggling with a decline in orders, job layoffs and factory closures amid a bitter trade dispute with the US. China’s economic growth slipped to 6.6% last year, the weakest expansion in 28 years, stoking fears of a sharper slowdown if the current US-Sino trade talks fail to stop further tariffs from being implemented after a 90-day truce. Profits in December fell 1.9% from a year earlier to CNY680.8bn, weighed down by weak factory-gate prices and soft demand. This is on top of a decline of 1.8% in November - the first contraction in profits in nearly three years. For the full year, profits rose 10.3% to CNY6.64tn in 2018, easing from 2017’s robust pace of 21%, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated. (Reuters) Regional  MENA will remain attractive to global investors in 2019 – MENA fixed income space remained relatively calm against volatile market moves in 2018. The GCC benchmark index returned 0.30% in 2018 compared to -1.72% for the emerging market benchmark JP Morgan CEMBI Index and -1.20% for the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index. Looking ahead to 2019, despite likely challenges, international bond investors can still benefit from a higher allocation to MENA markets. KAMCO Research, in its annual report on ‘MENA Debt’, attributed the region’s ‘economic liberalization’ and regulatory reforms as compelling reasons for institutional investors to invest in the region. According to KAMCO, the GCC’s share of global GDP is expected to increase from 1.8% in 2015 to 2.0% in 2019, while its share of emerging markets GDP is expected to increase from 4.7% to 5.0%. Debt-to GDP ratios among most GCC issuers remain very healthy, especially when compared to similarly rated emerging market peers, despite some having risen sharply. (Peninsula Qatar)  Saudi Aramco to pay $1.6bn for stake in South Korea's Hyundai Oilbank – Saudi Aramco plans to buy a stake of up to 19.9% of South Korean refiner, Hyundai Oilbank from Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings, for $1.61bn. South Korea is a major market for Saudi Aramco, the biggest shareholder of its No.3 refiner, S- Oil Corp. The deal should help Saudi Aramco boost sales of crude to Hyundai Oilbank, South Korea’s smallest refiner by capacity. Its parent, which now owns 91.13% of Hyundai Oilbank, stated that it has planned to reconsider the stock market listing of the refinery arm after completing the stake sale, possibly this year. Saudi Aramco plans to value Hyundai Oilbank at KRW10tn, or KRW36,000 per share, the parent firm stated. Sources said that the company plans to offer a discount of 10% to Saudi Aramco in a block deal that will require board approval from both firms. “Hyundai Heavy is selling the stake at a good price,” said Yoon Tae-ho, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, adding that the valuation was higher than the market expected. (Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s unemployment at 12.8% in 3Q2018 – Unemployment among Saudi Arabian citizens eased marginally to 12.8% in the third quarter of 2018, official figures showed. The jobless rate first hit 12.9%, the highest level recorded by the statistics agency in data going back to 1999, in the first quarter of 2018, as private employers were hit by a new sales tax and a domestic fuel price hike. (Reuters)  SABIC says challenges remain, views Saudi Aramco deal positively – Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) expects to face challenges this year due to uncertainty over the impact of a global trade war on the US and China, its major markets, the company’s CEO, Yousef Al-Benyan said. However, the
  • 5. Page 5 of 6 world’s fourth-biggest petrochemicals company stated that it has the ability to deal with such challenges and started to see stabilization in prices of some products after a steep decline toward the end of 2018. The company attributed the fall to lower average selling prices and a decrease in the share of results of associates. “We’ve seen stabilization for some of the prices, still there are some challenges ahead of us. SABIC will continue to boost its presence in its major markets, the US and China. We are part of the global economic system, we are always affected by challenges but we are able to adapt with these challenges in the best way,” he said. (Reuters)  Saudi Investment Bank denies plan to merge with local lender – Saudi Investment Bank denied it is considering or holding talks for a potential merger. Referring to social media reports about a possible merger with a local lender, “the board of directors denies this since there has been no talk about this within the bank or with any other party,” according to a statement. (Bloomberg)  NBQ's net profit rises to AED409.0mn in FY2018 – National Bank of Umm Al-Qaiwain (NBQ) recorded net profit of AED409.0mn in FY2018 as compared to AED369.8mn in FY2017. Net operating profit came in at AED448.9mn as compared to AED350.4mn in FY2017. EPS came in at AED0.22 in FY2018 as compared to AED0.20 in FY2017. Total assets stood at AED14.7bn at the end of December 31, 2018 as compared to AED14.1bn at the end of December 31, 2017. Customer loans and advances reached AED8.9bn and customer deposits increased to AED9.8bn. The bank continued to maintain strong liquidity of 33.71%. The bank continues to have a healthy capital adequacy ratio as well as Tier-1 ratio at 36.73% and 35.59%, respectively in FY2018. (ADX)  ADNOC seals $5.8bn refining and trading deal with ENI, OMV – Italy’s Eni and Austria’s OMV have agreed to pay a combined $5.8bn to take stake in Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (ADNOC) refining business and establish a new trading operation owned by the three partners. The transaction, which expands ADNOC’s access to European markets, furthers Eni’s diversification away from Africa and gives OMV a downstream oil business outside Europe. It was hailed as a one of a kind deal by ADNOC’s CEO, Sultan Al-Jaber. “The whole oil and gas industry hasn’t seen a transaction of this size and sophistication,” he said. Under the agreement, Eni and OMV will acquire a 20% and a 15% share, respectively, in ADNOC Refining, with ADNOC owning the remaining 65%, the three companies stated. The partners will own the same proportions of the joint trading venture, they added. OMV stated that it would pay around $2.5bn, while Eni stated that it would pay around $3.3bn, giving ADNOC Refining, which has a total refining capacity of 922,000 barrels per day, an enterprise value of $19.3bn. The agreement includes output from the Ruwais Refinery, the fourth largest single site refinery in the world. (Reuters)
  • 6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6 Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns) 45.0 70.0 95.0 120.0 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 QSE Index S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC 0.9% (0.4%) (0.0%) 1.2% (0.3%) 0.0% 1.0% (0.7%) 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% SaudiArabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman AbuDhabi Dubai Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%* Gold/Ounce 1,303.15 1.7 1.7 1.6 MSCI World Index 2,001.86 0.9 0.1 6.3 Silver/Ounce 15.75 2.8 2.6 1.6 DJ Industrial 24,737.20 0.7 0.1 6.0 Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 61.64 0.9 (1.7) 14.6 S&P 500 2,664.76 0.8 (0.2) 6.3 Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) 53.69 1.1 (0.2) 18.2 NASDAQ 100 7,164.86 1.3 0.1 8.0 Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 3.10 (1.9) (9.6) (2.7) STOXX 600 357.84 1.6 0.6 5.6 LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 68.25 0.2 (0.7) 7.5 DAX 11,281.79 2.3 1.1 6.5 LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 70.00 0.4 4.3 0.0 FTSE 100 6,809.22 1.1 (0.1) 4.6 Euro 1.14 0.9 0.4 (0.5) CAC 40 4,925.82 2.1 1.5 3.7 Yen 109.55 (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) Nikkei 20,773.56 0.9 0.6 4.4 GBP 1.32 1.0 2.5 3.5 MSCI EM 1,032.34 1.3 1.4 6.9 CHF 1.01 0.3 0.2 (1.2) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,601.72 1.0 0.7 6.3 AUD 0.72 1.2 0.2 1.8 HANG SENG 27,569.19 1.7 1.7 6.5 USD Index 95.79 (0.8) (0.6) (0.4) BSE SENSEX 36,025.54 (0.2) (0.5) (1.8) RUB 66.00 0.3 (0.4) (5.3) Bovespa 97,677.19 0.0 1.5 14.2 BRL 0.26 (0.0) (0.5) 2.8 RTS 1,192.02 0.3 1.3 11.5 88.2 83.7 79.0