TECHNIQUES OF FORCASTING

1. *PRESENTED BY:
SUPRIYA LIMAN

2. * TECHNIQUES OF
FORCASTING.

3. 1. Forecasting is looking ahead in future.
2. Forecasting is first step of planning.
3. It helps to find out of the possibility in
future, hence it helps in planning.

4. “Forecasting is an decision making tool
used by many business man to help in
budgeting, planning, estimating future
growth”.
“Forecasting is the attempt to predict the
future out comes based on past event and
management insights”.

5.  Quantitative & Qualitative Technique.
 Time Series Analyses.
 Extrapolation.
 Regression Analyses.
 Econometric Models.
 Input Output Analyses.
 Historical Analogy.
 Morphological Analyses.

6. 1. Quantitative and Qualitative Techniques :
The qualitative techniques are the
techniques which can be measured in figures
and quantitative are based on judgement and
can’t be measured in units.
2. Time Series Analysis :
The historical series of data is used
to forecast the future.
E.g. Trend, Seasonal variations, cyclical
variables, it considers season wise changes
and cyclical demands.

7. 3. Extrapolation :
The trend which is currently running
will continue and same method which are
company using right now will be applicable. It
is based on time series. It assumed that
there is no changes but stability is
maintained.
4. Regression Analysis :
It attempts to find out the relative
movements or changes of two or more inter-
related series.
E.g. If the prices of petrol raises then the
cost of transportation will also increase.

8. 5. Econometric Models :
It is mathematical models, relationship
between two economic variables are studied in
this technique by using statistical data.
E.g. Gross National Product [GNP], exchange
rates, inflation, etc.
6. Input–Output Analysis :
It is based on inter-relationships
between input and output factor.

9. 7. Historical Analysis :
This forecast is based on same
analogous conditions elsewhere in the past.
Historical data is used to forecast the future.
8. Morphological Analysis :
It is used to forecast the
technological changes.