A quarter might seem to be a short period of time, but it’s long enough for an economic and political situation to change completely. Our quarterly edition of the G-Grade as of Q3/2015, highlights these significant changes in the evolution of political risk globally. As a reminder, the G-Grade aims at providing a condensed view of the political risk assessment done by Atradius, Coface, Credimundi and Euler Hermes allowing you to control your credit risk export sales in more than 140 countries. To download the complete study : www.au-group.com/how-to-monitor-country-risks

1. _
Publication
N°2
AUGroupG-Grade
2015-3rd
Quarter
2015
3RD
QUARTER
GLOBAL
OVERVIEW
_
Country Risk Global Grading
AU Group
—GRADEG

2. _
CopyrightAUGroup
_
Introduction
INTRODUCTION
Page
1
INTRODUCTION
NOTICE OF EXPLANATION
DISCLAIMER
- The G-Grade displays a grade between 1 and 10,
measuring the perceived level of political risk in
this country.
- Grade 1 corresponds to the lowest perceived
level of political risk.
- On each country snapshot, you will notice:
• on the left side is the previous grade,
• on the centre is the current G-Grade, and
• on the right side is the highest and the lowest
risk assessment provided by the insurers.
- All macro economic graphics have been prepared
based on IMF (International Monetary Fund) sta-
tistics department information (World Economic
Outlook Database)
- In case of questions please address your request
to: cardera@au-group.com
This document reflects the opinion of AU Group. The information and datas contained herein are based on our current
hypotheses and viewpoints. They are not legal or other professional advice and shall not be relied on as such. In this
regard, A.U. Group does not warrant or assume any legal liability for any indirect damage, such as any financial or
commercial loss, loss of profits, disruption to business, shortfall in earnings, losses or any legal action brought by a
third party against the reader, resulting from the use of this document or any information contained in this document.
Moreover, the analyses are subject to modification at any time without prior notice.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or used
in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including
photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval sys-
tems without the prior permission of AU Group.
ENABLING BETTER VISIBILITY ON WORLDWIDE RISKS
In our challenging global economy, it is obvious how much, the business environment
has been shaken by political risk, environmental catastrophes, local country instability
with high levels of debt, local armed conflict….These events have occurred across all
regions e.g. Russia, Brazil, Egypt, China, Greece... In this context, companies continue
to seek new markets to develop their export businesses as well as monitoring existing
markets for signs of higher risk.
Many companies use Trade Credit to secure their growth, supporting their own
commercial credit decisions with information provided by large insurers such as EULER
HERMES, ATRADIUS, COFACE & CREDIMUNDI... All of those insurers have their own
sophisticated economic research departments, which analyse short/medium term
economic risk as well as country political risk. In this regards they are producing country
risk grades to monitor political risk which could impact the payment of a receivable.
However, each insurer uses different methods to assess the risk and each presents its
grades in different ways.
We, at AU Group, the largest broker only specialised in insurance and financing of trade
receivables, wanted to innovate by giving, in a single Grade, a condensed overview based
on the insurers’ country risk assessments. Therefore we created the “AU G-Grade” for
decision makers.
The AU G-Grade is displayed country by country, showing the lowest and highest
assessments and the rating evolution. In addition and in order to provide you a complete
picture of each country, we have selected 7 KPI’s issued by the IMF statistic department.
The AU G-Grade is a complementary tool to the insurer’s grading and gives a solid trend
and indication of a country risk based on the valuable grading of the most experienced
insurers. We trust you will appreciate this initiative.
― Baudouin de Thoré, Chief Executive Officer
AU GROUP
—GRADEG
COPYRIGHT
AU Group G-Grade 2015
hight risk
10
low risk
1

3. Albania
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macedonia
Malta
Moldova
Montenegro
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Uzbekistan
Afghanistan
Australia
Bangladesh
Cambodia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea (South)
Laos
Malaysia
Mongolia
Myanmar
Nepal
New Zealand
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
p.3
p.4
p.5
p.6
p.7
p.8
p.9
p.10
p.11
p.12
p.13
p.14
p.15
p.16
p.17
p.18
p.19
p.20
p.21
p.22
p.23
p.24
p.25
p.26
p.27
p.28
p.29
p.30
p.31
p.32
p.33
p.34
p.35
p.36
p.37
p.38
p.39
p.40
p.41
p.42
p.43
p44
p.45
p.46
p.47
p.48
p.49
p.50
p.63
p.64
p.65
p.66
p.67
p.68
p.69
p.70
p.71
p.72
p.73
p.74
p.75
p.76
p.77
p.78
p.79
p.80
p.81
p.82
p.83
p.84
p.85
p.86
COUNTRY COUNTRY COUNTRYPAGE PAGE PAGETREND TREND TREND
_
CopyrightAUGroup
_
Overview
OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
EUROPE & CIS
Page
2
ASIA
AMERICAS
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
United States of America
Uruguay
Venezuela
p.128
p.129
p.130
p.131
p.132
p.133
p.134
p.135
p.136
p.137
p.138
p.139
p.140
p.141
p.142
p.143
p.144
p.145
p.146
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Congo (Brazaville)
Congo (Democratic Republic)
Cote d’Ivoire
Egypt
Ethiopia
Gabon
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
p.87
p.88
p.89
p.90
p.91
p.92
p.93
p.94
p.95
p.96
p.97
p.98
p.99
p.100
p.101
p.102
p.103
p.104
p.105
p.106
p.107
p.108
p.109
p.110
p.111
p.112
p.113
p.114
p.115
p.116
p.117
p.118
p.119
p.120
p.121
p.122
p.123
p.124
p.125
p.126
p.127
AFRICA
p.51
p.52
p.53
p.54
p.55
p.56
p.57
p.58
p.59
p.60
p.61
p.62
MIDDLE EAST
Bahrain
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
AU Group G-Grade 2015

4. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
ALBANIA
Europe&Cis
2.8Population
in Millions of people, 2014
2.1Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
4 781Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
7
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
7.8
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
6
MAX
10
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
2.7
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.6 1.4
2.1
3
4
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4 384
4 633
4 781
4 495
4 835
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
113
115.2
117.1
119.2
122.1
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
13.4
15.6
14 13.8
13.5
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
62
70.1
72.6 73.6
69.8
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-10.2 -10.7 -13.9 -15.7 -15.5
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Albania - Europe & Cis
Page
3

5. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
BELGIUM
Europe&Cis
11.2Population
in Millions of people, 2014
1Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
47 722Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
2
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
1.5
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
1
MAX
2
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.1
11.2 11.2 11.2
11.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.1
0.3
1
1.3
1.5
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
44 988
47 033
47 722
41 267
42 036
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
118.2
119.6
120.2 120.3
121.4
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.6
8.4 8.5 8.4
8.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
104
104.6
105.6
106.6
106.2
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.7
-0.2
1.6
2.3 2.4
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Belgium - Europe & Cis
Page
8

6. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
GREECE
Europe&Cis
11Population
in Millions of people, 2014
0.8Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
21 653Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
6.3
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
8.3
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
7
MAX
10
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.1 11.1
11 11 11
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-6.6
-3.9
0.8
2.5
3.7
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
22 446
21 903 21 653
18 863
19 800
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
122.9
121.6
119.9 119.6 119.9
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
24.4
27.5
26.5
24.8
22.1
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
156.5
174.9 177.2
172.7
162.4
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-2.5
0.6 0.9
1.4 1.1
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Greece - Europe & Cis
Page
20

7. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
HUNGARY
Europe&Cis
9.9Population
in Millions of people, 2014
3.6Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
13 881Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
4.8
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
5.3
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
4
MAX
6
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9
9.8
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-1.5
1.5
3.6
2.7 2.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12 769
13 465
13 881
12 853
13 487
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
109.9
111.8 111.5 111.5
114
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.1
10.2
7.8 7.6 7.4
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
78.5
77.3 76.9
75.5
74.7
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.9
4.1 4.2
4.8
4.1
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Hungary - Europe & Cis
Page
21

8. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
BAHRAIN
MiddleEast
1.2Population
in Millions of people, 2014
4.7Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
28 272Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
5
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
5
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
4
MAX
6
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3.4
5.3
4.7
2.7
2.4
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
26 632
27 917
28 272
25 633
26 714
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
114.7
118.5
121.5
124
125.9
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3.9
4.3
4.1
4.3 4.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
36.3
43.6 43.8
54
57
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.2 7.8
5.3
-2.1
-0.7
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Bahrain - Middle East
Page
51

9. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
IRAN
MiddleEast
78Population
in Millions of people, 2014
3Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
5 183Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
10
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
10
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
10
MAX
10
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
76
77
78
79
80
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-6.6
-1.9
3
0.6 1.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5 512
4 941
5 183
4 983
5 057
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
130.5
175.9
203.2
236.8
277
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12.2
10.4
11.2
12.3
13.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.2 11.1
12.2
11.9 11.9
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6.3
7.4
3.8
0.8 1.2
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Iran - Middle East
Page
52

10. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
CAMBODIA
Asia
15.3Population
in Millions of people, 2014
7Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
1 081Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
8.3
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
6.8
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
5
MAX
9
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
14.9
15.1
15.3
15.5
15.8
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.3
7.4
7
7.2 7.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
946
1 018
1 081
1 146
1 229
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
148
152.4
158.3 157.8
161.7
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
28.9
28.7
29.5
29.8
29.5
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-11 -12.2 -12 -10 -9.3
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Cambodia - Asia
Page
66

11. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
CHINA
Asia
1 367.8Population
in Millions of people, 2014
7.4Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
7 589Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
3.3
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
3.8
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
2
MAX
6
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 354
1 360.7
1 367.8
1 375
1 382.1
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.8 7.8
7.4
6.8
6.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6 194
6 959
7 589
8 154
8 659
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
108.2
111
113.2
114.6
116.3
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
37.3
39.4
41.1
43.5
46.2
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2.6
1.9 2
3.2 3.2
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
China - Asia
Page
67

12. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
ANGOLA
Africa
24.4Population
in Millions of people, 2014
4.2Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
5 273Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
6.8
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
7.5
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
5
MAX
9
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
23
23.7
24.4
25.1
25.9
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5.2
6.8
4.2
4.5
3.9
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5 018
5 245 5 273
4 227
4 561
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
116.5
126.7
135.9
147.3
159.8
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
29.6
35.2
38
47.5
44.3
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12
6.7
-0.8
-6.3 -4.2
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Angola - Africa
Page
88

13. Copyright AU Group
AU Group G-Grade 2015
GABON
Africa
1.6Population
in Millions of people, 2014
5.1Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
10 836Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
PREVIOUS
G-GRADE
5.8
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
CURRENT
G-GRADE
6.3
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
SPREAD
MIN
5
MAX
8
POPULATION
(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.5
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5.5 5.6
5.1
4.4
5.5
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10 526
10 966 10 836
9 343
9 979
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION
(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
117.1 117.7
123
126.1
129.2
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
21.1
27 27.8
33.7 35.1
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
21.3
15
11.3
-2.3
0.9
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Gabon - Africa
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101

14. Page
147
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