A Look Into CO2 Emissions, GHG, Past and Future Energy Consumption Trends, GDP and Their Correlation To Population Growth - Sustainable Development

3. Over the last 50 years, while energy consumption grew
substantially, the world undertook a transition in its
usage of fossil fuels, from solids (coal) to liquids (oil) to
gases (natural gas). While coal accounted for 39% of all
energy consumption in 1965, this share declined to 27% in
2020, being 1980 the year of the transition.
In 1980, the world energy consumption was equivalent to
289 x 10 18
Joules. This was a total of 580 exajoules in
2020. This year, we are crossing the 349,847,500
terajoules mark on August 08th
, 2022 (11:25 pm CST), the
time this report was written.
1 Exajoule = 1018
joules. 1 EJ = 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 J
1 Terajoule = 1012
joules. 1 TJ = 1 000 000 000 000 J

4. It is difficult to grasp the amount of energy consumed
worldwide. To illustrate, the global annual energy
consumption corresponds to the energy released from
the Hiroshima nuclear bomb every four seconds.
A Boeing 737 can cross the Atlantic Ocean on one
terajoule. In fact it only requires 11.93 gigaloules.
One Space Shuttle lift-off would require 187.5 -192.1
terajoules (for it to rid itself of the Earth´s pull at 3,200
km above, 11.2 km/s escape velocity).
Emissions of GHG, particularly those of CO2, can be
directly correlated to this energy consumption.

6. A variation in population size corresponds to a variation
in energy consumption at double the rate. That is, for a
20% increase in population size, energy consumption
increases by 43.6%; conversely, for a 20% decrease in
population size, demand for energy decreases by 44.6%.

7. In 2014, airlines produced 813.6 million tonnes of CO2. In
2018, commercial aircraft emitted about 900 million
tonnes of CO2 globally (IATA, 2019), which is 2.4% of the
worldwide total and more than the entire German
economy.
In 2019, this figure as recorded by ATAG grew to 915
million tonnes CO2. The world´s total emissions were 33.9
gigatonnes as of 2014. Global energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to 36.3 billion
tonnes, their highest ever level, as the world economy
rebounded strongly from the Covid-19 crisis and relied
heavily on coal to power that growth, according to new
IEA analysis released early this year (2022).

8. This means that, at a total annual global energy (TAGEC)
consumption estimated at 580 million terajoules (2021) -
580 million trillion joules or about 13,865 million tons of
oil equivalents (mtoe) - , the world produces an average of
580 x 10 18
/36.3 x 10 9
=15.98 GJ/tonne (m) CO2 generated,
or 4.44 MWhr electricity/tonnes CO2. This is equivalent to
a Robert W. Scherer Power Plant at an output factor 59%
and capacity factor 21%, assuming a service factor = 35%,
or just one (1) of the three remaining units operational.
That´s just how much, in analogy, the power output would
need to be leveled-out for a typical coal-fired
thermoelectric facility to be up to Net Zero´s emission
targets by 2050, today.

9. What´s the world´s population estimate in 2050 ?
The world´s population is projected to reach 8.6 billion in
2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. The
current world´s population stands at 7.6 billion (2022).
CO2 emission levels are expected to be directly in line with
or even larger than this growth, in direct proportion to the
energy usage.
This means that at an expected energy consumption of
832.88 Exa Joules, CO2 emissions could be of the order of
56 - 78.4 Gigatonnes/ yr. With the use of alternative fuels
and the Net Zero policies, it is hoped that it shall be less.

10. Figure 1. Estimated energy consumption over the past
180 years and the forecast for the next 20, against the
estimated world population by continent.

11. Figures 1 & 2 shows the huge increase in world energy
consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200
years. This rise in energy consumption has been primarily
from continuous consumption of fossil fuel.
With energy consumption rising as rapidly as shown, it is
hard to see what is happening when viewed at a macro
level. To get a different view, Figure 3 shows the average
consumption per person, using world population estimates
by Our World in Data.
On a per capita basis, there is a huge increment in growth
between World War II and 1970. There is also a small rise
about the time of World War I, and a new spike in growth
recently, as a result of growing coal usage in Asia.

12. Figure 2. Detailed Analysis of energy use by source
between the years 1971 – 2019, showing increased trends
in renewable energy use rising.

13. World per Capita Energy Consumption
Let’s look first at Figure 3. Prior to 1900, energy per capita
did not rise very much with the addition of coal energy,
suggesting that the early use of coal mostly offset other fuel
uses, or permitted larger families. There was a small
increase in energy consumption per capita during World
War I, but a dip during the depression prior to World War II.
Between World War II and 1970, there was a huge ramp-up
in energy consumption per capita. There are several
reasons why this might have happened:
- During this period, European countries and Japan were
rebuilding after World War II,

14. Figure 3. Graph showing energy consumption during the
last 200 years as a function of energy usage / capita.

15. - There was a need to find jobs for returning US soldiers,
so that the country would not fall back into the
recession it was in prior to World War II.
- The US had a large oil industry that it wanted to
develop, in order to provide jobs and tax revenue.
- Major infrastructure development projects were put
into place during this period, including the Eisenhower
Interstate System and substantial improvements to
the electrical transmission system (TVA).
- To facilitate purchases both by companies and by
consumers, Ike´s Administration encouraged the use
of debt to pay for the new goods.

16. From Figure 2 it is also evident that there is a distinct
“bend” in the graph at about 1950, when population
starts rising faster, at the same time that energy
consumption starts rising vertiginously. Again, we can
refer to the 20-43.6 rule, where for a 20% increase in
population size, energy consumption increases by 43.6%.
Bear in mind that this energy increase is directly
proportional to the CO2 emissions being generated by
industrial activity, not taking into account the CO2
emitted directly by humans themselves, which was
around 43 billion tonnes CO2/ year in 2019.
At a world population estimate by 2050 of 9.8 billion,
energy consumption is expected to be 832.88 Exa Joules.

17. A mind-boggling change: the world population today is
1,860 times the size of what it was 12,000 years ago when
the world population was around 4 million – half of the
current population of London today –.
What is striking about this, is of course that almost all of
this growth happened just very recently. Historical
demographers estimate that around the year 1800 the
world population was only around 1 billion people. This
implies that on average the population grew very slowly
over this long period from 10,000 BC to 1700 (by 0.04%
annually); from the year 1800-on it increased seven-fold.
Since 1970, the rate of increase in world population has
declined.

18. In fact, after about 1800, demographic growth
accelerated at a steady rate to a peak of 2.09% annually
during the 1967–1969 period, but since then, due to the
worldwide collapse of the total fertility rate, this rate has
declined to 1.05% as of 2020.
CO2 Emissions per Capita
Energy use and CO2 emissions are rising as fast as GDP
growth. It´s impossible to decouple these trends.
Figure 4 illustrates what happens when the production of
goods and services is increasingly outsourced to Asia,
where coal is used as the primary fuel. Emissions tend to
rise there, even if they remain flat in other countries.

19. Figure 4. CO2 emissions by the three major areas described
(SE Asia, Middle East, others), based on BP Statistical Data.

20. These emissions are not on a per-capita basis, only /area.
If we compare the growth of CO2 emissions and the
growth of energy use, both on a per capita basis (Figure 5),
we see that the CO2 emissions grew more slowly than
energy consumption in the 1970 to 1990 period, so the
lines increasingly diverge.
This divergence appears to result from the changing fuel
mix (more nuclear and more natural gas, relative to coal)
during that same period.
The petroleum industry directly contributed about 8%
(2.7 BT) out of a total of 32.8 BT in 2017, also contributing
at least 79 MTonnes of methane (2.4 BT CO2 - equivalent)
that same year.

21. Figure 5. Per capita energy consumption and CO2 emissions,
based on BP Statistical Data

22. Since 2000, the two lines are approximately parallel,
indicating no further CO2 savings given the greater use of
coal again. Wind and solar contributions are not large
enough to make an appreciable difference in CO2 levels. Of
course other renewable technologies we recently looked at,
like power-to-x fuels, sustainable aviation fuels, biofuels,
hydrogen, ammonia and electricity do not even appear on
this chart as making any contribution on a significant scale,
and that´s because all of the new technologies have been
developing since 2012 or later (within this last decade).
That´s why coal will always be a ¨hard core fuel¨, since we
will always know that it is reliable (though it doesn´t meet
the long-term energy Net Zero 2050 CO2 commitment goals.

23. CONCLUSIONS
- Global energy consumption is only going up. This
growth is out of control and inexorably out-of-phase
with environmental policies.
- Since 2000, global energy consumption has increased
by about a third (33%) and is projected to continue to
grow in the foreseeable future.
- Global energy demand grew by 2.9% in 2018 and in a
business as usual scenario, by 2040 global energy
consumption will reach 740 million terajoules -
equivalent to an additional 30 percent growth margin.
- From 2000 to 2040, this will amount to a 77 percent
increase in the total global energy consumption,
reaching a whooping 99% increase in 2050 of 833 EJ.

24. Oil, coal, and gas still power the world
83 percent of the energy we use comes from fossil fuels.
Oil is the biggest energy source followed by coal and
natural gas.
This makes green energy innovation absolutely essential.
For now, most of the increase in global energy
consumption will be covered by burning more coal and
gas. That's not good. It emits enourmous amounts of CO2
into the atmosphere. And it makes it all the less likely that
the Net Zero 2050 long-term goals for zero carbon
emissions and the Paris Agreement 1.5 ° commitments
can be achieved.

25. As we speak, more than 25.88 Gigatonnes of CO2 have
been released into the atmosphere this year, so around
39.21 Gigatonnes CO2 are expected at the end of this year
(2022). The temperature (average) around the world is
14.96 °C, and increasing by 10 -8
°C every ten seconds, this
means one degree °C every 3 years.
Can we reverse this trend ?? Will we reverse this trend ??
Renewable energy is on the rise, but too slowly.
Between 2011 and 2030 renewable energy is expected to
grow from 2.0 – 6.5 % of global primary energy use.
The short-term goals set by the ICAO 41st
Assembly must
be adopted at all costs to meet Net Zero 2050 milestones.

26. The world must completely transform the global energy
system. But this projected increase in the use of
renewable energy is not even enough to cover for the
global increase in total energy world demand.
In 2018, energy from renewable sources grew by 14.5%
but still only accounted for about a-third of the total
increase in use of renewable energy.
Renewable capacity is expected to further increase over
8% in 2022, reaching almost 320 GW/yr. IRENA foresees
78,700 TWhr generation by 2050 in its scenario, and more
than half of total final energy (world) consumption (TFEC).

27. It’s possible: Solar energy could power the world. Easily.
In six months the Earth absorbs the same amount of
energy from the sun as that which is obtained from all of
the Earth's non-renewable resources put together (coal,
oil, natural gas, and uranium) - and this includes non-
renewable sources not yet exploited!
In less than 80 minutes, solar energy is equivalent to the
total world energy use for a full year´s worth of strikes on
Earth, meaning that the sun could power the world 6,570
times. This however, implies full output, capacity and
service factors, and 100 % availability, in theory feasible
but practically almost impossible to achieve.

28. Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were
at 38 Gigatonnes in 2019. In view of contemporary energy
policy of countries the IEA expects that worldwide energy
consumption in 2040 will have increased more than 25%
and that the goal, set in the Paris Agreement to limit
climate change, will not nearly be reached.
Net Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE) reaches global net zero
CO2 emissions by 2050. Temperature will peak at 1.7 °C by
2050 and decline to 1.4 °C by 2100. In 2050 half of energy
consumption will be electricity, accounted for nearly 70%
by wind and solar PV (photovoltaics), about 20% along
with other renewable sources and most of the remainder
from nuclear power, 300 – 330 TWhr (for 2022).

29. The other half is on biomass, SAFs (sustainable aviation
fuels), power-to-x fuels, superfuels, gas and oil with CCS
(carbon capture and storage) or non-energetic (asphalt,
petrochemicals). Use of coal falls down to 10%, oil 25%
& gas 45%. Emissions by the transport sector drop 90%,
the remainder mainly caused by heavy trucks, shipping &
aviation.
Investing in new fossil fuels is no longer necessary now
(2021). Annual energy investment is expected to increase
from just over $2 trillion worldwide on average over the
past five years to nearly $5 trillion by 2030 and to $4.5
trillion by 2050. The lion´s share of this money will be
spent on generating, storing, distributing electricity and
electrical end-user equipment (i.e. heat pumps,vehicles).

30. There is a growing mismatch between societal demands
for action on climate change and the actual pace of
progress, with energy demand and carbon emissions
growing at their fastest rate for years. The world is on an
unsustainable path. WE must take action to correct this, if
not for us, then for our children.
We must go back and take action on abiding by climate
and environmental protection on the planet, while there is
still a planet to get back to.
Remember the ancient saying: We do not inherit the Earth
from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.