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© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy and emissions – where do we
stand?
Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller
Climate Change Expert Group
© OECD/IEA 2018
2018 – a remarkable year for energy
Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18
Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional
performance driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices.
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mtoe
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2018
Coal demand evolves at three speeds
Coal demand by region, 2000-18
China’s sheer size dictates global trends, but demand moves onto a plateau.
1 000
2 000
3 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mtce
China
Advanced
economies
Other emerging
Asia
while policies and economics in advanced economies continue
to drive down coal use.
Demand moves up in emerging Asia,
© OECD/IEA 2018
Electricity growth outpaces renewables acceleration
Average annual change in
electricity generation, 2010-18
However, this growth was not fast enough to bend power sector emissions.
2010-16 2017 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1 000TWh
Solar PV
and wind
Hydro and
biomass
Other sources
Coal 38%
Solar PV and
wind 7%
Gas 23%
Nuclear
10%
Oil 3%
Hydro and biomass
19%
Electricity generation mix in 2018
Renewables accounted for the largest growth in electricity demand, led by growth in solar, wind and
hydro.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency improvements slowed again in 2018
Average annual change in primary energy intensity, 2010-18
In 2018 energy intensity improved by 1.3%, half the rate of the period 2014-2017. Weaker energy efficiency policy
implementation and strong demand growth in more energy intensive economies contributed to this slowdown.
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high
Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018
Higher demand for fossil fuels drove up global CO2 emissions for a second year after a brief hiatus.
Coal is the largest source of emissions, with growth in 2018 driven mostly by power generation in Asia
0
200
400
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MtCO2
-200
© OECD/IEA 2018
CO2 emissions growth would have been twice as high in 2018
Change in global energy related CO2 emissions by effect, 2017-18
Energy efficiency was the largest single contributor to CO2 savings, while emissions would
have been 50% higher without the transition to renewables and nuclear.
Energy Efficiency
Nuclear
Renewables
Coal-to-gas switching
Avoided emissions
Other
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
2017 2018
GtCO2 Increased emissions
Economic growth
© OECD/IEA 2018
The SDS is fully in line with the Paris agreement
The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in the SDS is at the lower end of a range
of scenarios projecting a global temperature rise of 1.7-1.8 °C in 2100
CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and other “well below 2 °C” scenarios
-30
0
30
60
2010 2040 2070 2100
GtCO2
Sustainable Development
Scenario
Scenarios projecting a
1.7-1.8 °C rise in 2100
© OECD/IEA 2018
200
400
600
800
1 000
2017 2040
Electric car
fleet
(million cars)
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2040
Energy
productivity
($GDP/Mtoe)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2017 2040
CCUS
deployment
(Gt CO2 captured)
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2017 2040
Share of
non-fossil energy
Wind and solar
generation
(thousand TWh)
4
8
12
16
20
2017 2040
Energy Sector Transformation in the SDS
Delivering the energy transformation in the SDS requires 13% more energy sector
investment than the NPS, due particularly to ramped up demand-side investment
Additional in Sustainable Development ScenarioNew Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2018
Can we unlock a different energy future?
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old;
policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation
12
18
24
30
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt CO2 36
Sustainable Development
Scenario
Coal-fired power plants
Increased room
to manoeuvre
6
New Policies Scenario
Existing and under construction
power plants, factories, buildings etc.
© OECD/IEA 2018
iea.org/weo

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CCXG March 2019 Laura Cozzi IEA Insights Flagship Products

  • 1. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy and emissions – where do we stand? Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller Climate Change Expert Group
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2018 2018 – a remarkable year for energy Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18 Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional performance driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices. 100 200 300 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2018 Coal demand evolves at three speeds Coal demand by region, 2000-18 China’s sheer size dictates global trends, but demand moves onto a plateau. 1 000 2 000 3 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Mtce China Advanced economies Other emerging Asia while policies and economics in advanced economies continue to drive down coal use. Demand moves up in emerging Asia,
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2018 Electricity growth outpaces renewables acceleration Average annual change in electricity generation, 2010-18 However, this growth was not fast enough to bend power sector emissions. 2010-16 2017 2018 0 200 400 600 800 1 000TWh Solar PV and wind Hydro and biomass Other sources Coal 38% Solar PV and wind 7% Gas 23% Nuclear 10% Oil 3% Hydro and biomass 19% Electricity generation mix in 2018 Renewables accounted for the largest growth in electricity demand, led by growth in solar, wind and hydro.
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2018 Efficiency improvements slowed again in 2018 Average annual change in primary energy intensity, 2010-18 In 2018 energy intensity improved by 1.3%, half the rate of the period 2014-2017. Weaker energy efficiency policy implementation and strong demand growth in more energy intensive economies contributed to this slowdown. -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018 Higher demand for fossil fuels drove up global CO2 emissions for a second year after a brief hiatus. Coal is the largest source of emissions, with growth in 2018 driven mostly by power generation in Asia 0 200 400 600 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MtCO2 -200
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2018 CO2 emissions growth would have been twice as high in 2018 Change in global energy related CO2 emissions by effect, 2017-18 Energy efficiency was the largest single contributor to CO2 savings, while emissions would have been 50% higher without the transition to renewables and nuclear. Energy Efficiency Nuclear Renewables Coal-to-gas switching Avoided emissions Other 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.0 2017 2018 GtCO2 Increased emissions Economic growth
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2018 The SDS is fully in line with the Paris agreement The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in the SDS is at the lower end of a range of scenarios projecting a global temperature rise of 1.7-1.8 °C in 2100 CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and other “well below 2 °C” scenarios -30 0 30 60 2010 2040 2070 2100 GtCO2 Sustainable Development Scenario Scenarios projecting a 1.7-1.8 °C rise in 2100
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2018 200 400 600 800 1 000 2017 2040 Electric car fleet (million cars) 5 10 15 20 25 2017 2040 Energy productivity ($GDP/Mtoe) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2017 2040 CCUS deployment (Gt CO2 captured) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2017 2040 Share of non-fossil energy Wind and solar generation (thousand TWh) 4 8 12 16 20 2017 2040 Energy Sector Transformation in the SDS Delivering the energy transformation in the SDS requires 13% more energy sector investment than the NPS, due particularly to ramped up demand-side investment Additional in Sustainable Development ScenarioNew Policies Scenario
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2018 Can we unlock a different energy future? Global energy-related CO2 emissions Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation 12 18 24 30 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt CO2 36 Sustainable Development Scenario Coal-fired power plants Increased room to manoeuvre 6 New Policies Scenario Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.