Presentations from the FCM and NPS Joint Seminar

1. Decision support system for strengthening landscape resilience
planning and investment in Nigeria
Joint CGIAR Initiative Seminar, 12 May 2023. Abuja, Nigeria
Olufunke Cofie, Seifu Tilahun and Giriraj Amarnath
International Water Management Institute
West Africa Office, PMB CT 112, Accra Ghana

2. Context
 Globally, hotspots of human vulnerability
coexist with fragile states
 Nigeria rank among the 20 most fragile states
in the world
 Drivers of fragility is muti-faceted. Climate
change is a multiplier of the country’s
vulnerability to conflict and fragility
 The impact of climate change includes
growing food insecurity, water scarcity, flood,
heatwaves, and increased conflict over
natural resources.
 Example is the lower Benue basin (LBRB)

3. Fragility in the lower Benue River Basin
• Growing conflict and flooding is increasing the
number of internally displaced persons
• The LBRB hosts about 467,786 IDPs
• IDPs and host communities experience increasing
pressure on land and water resources and basic
services.
• Proper use of land and water resources is a
prerequisite to building a healthy,
productive, environment for resilient agri-food
systems and livelihoods.

4. 1. Provide a decision support system and knowledge –base for
informed and transparent decision-making by stakeholders.
Combine digital innovation participatory
tools, multi-stakeholder dialogues and
citizen science to co-develop, and
implement inclusive landscape plans,
owned by the communities
Water quantity, quality and risks data available from participatory
approaches and citizen science
Water & Land Resources Decision Support System operational
and accessible to stakeholders
A participatory toolbox for land and water resources assessment and co-
designing landscape management plans is available
TAFS WP3: Inclusive Landscape Management for
Resilient Agrifood Systems

5. OP3.2.1. Sustainably intensified one
Health-sensitive water and energy-
efficient production at landscape level
OP3.2.2. One Health-sensitive bundles
(fish-small livestock-crop) of good
agricultural practices for intensification
and diversification at landscape level
2. Catalyze the scaling of bundled climate-smart innovations,
technologies and practices

6. Decision Support System
• Consist of a near real-time accessible
tool to facilitate sub-national, sub-basin,
or transboundary basin water resource
management
• Components include the
database, software system, and user
interface
• Allow for more informed decision-
making (e.g. water quantity or quality)
• timely problem-solving (eg., risks from
flood or drought), and
• improved efficiency in dealing with
issues of operations, planning, and
even management
Computational systems that
integrate data and models on
water and relevant drivers of
change (eg climate or
landscape or development) to
aid in management decisions

7. IWMI’s
Catalogue of
DSS
https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/resour
ces/data-and-tools/

8. Expert consultation and prioritized need for a Water DSS
Ghana
Rwanda
Burundi
Nigeria
1. Water Accounting +
2. DIWASA Flood forecasting tools
3. DIWASA Drought management tools
4. ClimBeR AWARE Platform
5. Earth Observation for Agriculture Risk
Management Decision Support
Platform(EO4ARM)

9. Early Warning Early Action Early Finance (AWARE)
• AWARE Dashboard supports multiscale, multipartner to equip relevant
decision makers with key information for preparedness, response,
advocacy and resource mobilisation efforts to mitigate and manage
these risks.
• Dashboard supports broad range of key early-warning indicators, and an
accountability framework, which sets out the roles and responsibilities
of key actors in the humanitarian community in ensuring the
mechanism tightens the links between early warnings and response.
Five sets of indicators:
• Climate (rainfall, vegetation coverage/NDVI
and drought/floods)
• Market (cereal prices, livestock prices, Wage
Labor)
• Health (Measles, AWD, Polio and Malaria)
• Nutrition
• Population displacement
Increasing food and nutrition security among vulnerable households
• Thresholds for key set of
indicators for “trigger”
• System “alert” across
ministries, NGOs and
local communities
• Contingency planning
• Scalable safety nets
• Accountability for action
Food Insecurity
Outlook
Drought
Outlook
NDMA, MoF
Moderate
Severe
Extreme
Drought Early
Warning &
Declaration
MoA
(DEWC)
Scalability
SOPs
Pre-designed SOPs: i.e.
• District IDSI classification
• Drought severity (intensity and
duration)
• Pop affected
• Land-use classes affected
• % of sown area deviation from
long term
• IPC class
IPC
DEWC, NDMA &
NDMC
Source: Giriraj Amarnath

10. Innovation acceleration as
a scaling pathway to
strengthen resilience in
agrifood systems
Presented by: Inga Jacobs-Mata, International Water
Management Institute (IWMI)

11. www.cgiar.org
Research Stream: ACCELERATE
Build something useful,
test it, and let the results
speak for themselves. As the
impact multiplies, supporters
will become inspired by the
results and want to support
you. That is the power of
scaling up high impact
innovations.
Jean-Martin Bauer, Advisor, Digital, WfP,
2022
A partnered accelerator program to scale innovations that
promote the resilience of FLWS and social inclusion in
FCASs.
Leverage private sector resources in the design and
scaling of innovations in FCAS.
Increase local innovators’ skills in developing and scaling
solutions that address short-term emergency goals while
promoting resilience and sustainability in the long-term.

12. www.cgiar.org
Complex realities
Source: Adaptive scaling to achieve system transformation in One CGIAR

13. www.cgiar.org
An organic approach
Source: Adaptive scaling to achieve system
transformation in One CGIAR
Useful to
 operationalize scaling of CG
innovation bundles
 capitalize upon synergies while
minimizing risks and adverse trade-
offs
 create impact at the multi-
dimensional scale of quantity, quality
and process
 facilitate interactive learning and
collaboration
 trigger behaviour changes and
political will to enable system
transformation
Not designed to
• Be technocentric and
linear scaling process
• give exact scaling
solutions
• exclude stakeholder
and actor engagement

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Pathways to operationalize adaptive scaling
Individual and collective
investment
Multi-stakeholder
dialogue
Institutional capacity
Financing mechanisms for
SME’s
Targeting
investments
Technical Assistance support toolkit:
- Scaling partnership
- Diagnostic tools enabling environment and financing ecosystem
- Scaling and impact assessment
Private and public
sector scaling
partnership
Scaling vision: By 2023, AICCRA Zambia aims to reach and impact
300k farmers and value chain actors with climate informed agro-
advisories and new/improved climate smart agricultural innovation
bundles.

15. www.cgiar.org
Scaling grants and technical assistance to support agribusiness
acceleration
1
Technical assistance:
During the active project
duration (January 2024 –
December 2024), CGIAR
partners will provide
technical assistance
Scaling grant:
Successful
applicants will be
awarded a scaling
grant of US$
50,000 per bundle
2
Fragility
AWARE DSS; Sustainable
Financing for Off-grid Solar
Irrigation, Diversified
integrated mixed chicken/
goats – legume systems
01
Conflict
Online dashboard for conflict
hotspots, Toolkit for crisis
scenario analyses
02
Migration
Migration Index
03
within 2 years
In order to
reach
75 000 farmers
1

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ACCELERATE: End-to-end methodology to scale innovations and catalyse
private investments into FCASs
Innovation bundling Partner sourcing Acceleration Exit
Phase
Duration 6 months (Q2, Q3 2023) 3 - 4 months (Q4 2023, Q1 2024) 6 – 9 months (Q2, Q3, Q4 2024) One week (Q3 or Q4 2024)
Preparation Execution
Market analysis
• FLWS prioritization in FCAS's
• Focus countries
• Focus on business & partnership
models, humanitarian institutions,
community-based orgs,
Call for applications
• Criteria development
• Call design (including platform
choice and setup)
• Pre-launch activities (e.g.
matchmaking dialogue)
• Go-live of call (4 – 6 weeks)
De-risking grant
• Grant funds disbursed in steps
based on deliverables
• Only for personnel / no tangible
assets
Facilitating partnerships other
development initiatives
• Projects are showcased and linked to
other suitable actors
• Partnerships are initiated and
facilitated
Bundle development
• Identification of innovations
• IPSR process
• Scientific and humanitarian,
development and peace criteria
(CFM indicators)
Co-validation
• Stress-testing in the market (info
sessions with relevant stakeholders)
• Refining of ideas
Evaluation
• Set-up of juror team (CG experts,
humanitarian responders in
FCAS's)
• Three-step evaluation process
(shortlisting, adjudication center,
interviews)
Onboarding
• Contracting and legal (deliverables
& fund disbursement
• Development of action plans
• Team-building exercises (focus
workshops)
Steps
Technical assistance
• Building local capacities to design
HDP innovations
• Sensitize innovators to proven
models for FCAS
• Impact measurement and
management (indicators on
organizational & beneficiary level;
CFM; done by CG M&E teams)
Access to finance
• Create viable commercial models
around the humanitarian interventions
• Develop bankable investment solutions
for relevant funding partners in FCAS
(public, concessional, private capital)
• Source pool of relevant potential
investors and gauge interest (e.g.
World Bank)
• Match innovation/accelerator portfolio
with investors
Technical/steering committee
Together w/ implementing partner(-s), e.g.:

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ACCELERATE: Tailored technical assistance
Scientific
excellence
Impact
measurement
&
management
Diagnostics
2 months
Development
2 months
Delivery
2 months
Inno-specific
advisory
Enabling
environment
Gender &
social
inclusion
Innovation
scaling
• Innovation-specific needs
identification
• Matching with CG experts
• Explanation & understanding of
regulatory environment
• Baseline assessment of GESI
activities
• Quantification of impact indicators
• Identification of innovations
• Application of market & other criteria
• Provision of scientific tools and
skills
• Knowledge sharing on innovation
• Mapping institutional bottlenecks
• Identifying pathways to scale
• Working with accelerator partners
to develop scaling strategy
(GenderUP)
• Inclusion of innovations into the
FCM IPSR portfolio
Roadmaps
for FCM
delivery
Report on
policy
bottlenecks
Overview of
pathways &
KPIs
IPSR dossier
• Advice on implementation of
innovation
• Testing of approaches
• Development of strategies &
engagement plans
• Development of strategies &
engagement plans
• Alignment of IPSR dossier with
Accelerator process (IPSR step 3)
Proof-of-
concept reports
Policy paper
Strategy advice
paper
Scaling
strategies
report
Output 1 Output 2
Bundles impact pathways
Capacity building of partners
in developing impact
pathways and indicators.
Collective design of impact
pathways
Investment-level
impact pathways & indicators
Partners design investment-
specific impact pathways,
indicators, and plans to collect
and analyze data
M&E Plans
Partners finalize
plans to collect and
evaluate data,
Evaluation
Initial evaluation
and reporting of
outcomes

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ACCELERATE: from outputs to outcomes
Conclusion of one program (6 – 9 months cohort) should result in several primary and
secondary outputs and outcomes
Primary outputs (required; WP4 led)
• Case study report (per innovator) including all actions
+ findings of the respective service provider published
• Summary report including overall engagement structure
+ impact # published
• Multi-stakeholder learning platform established
Secondary outputs (potential for other WPs)
• Partnerships used to inform tool development (WPs
1&2)
• New partnerships with identified innovators for further
areas of work
Primary outcomes (WP4 focus)
• Innovators have reached new markets and beneficiary groups and
established/increased operations
• Companies increased their customer base through business model innovation
• New partnership linkages have been established through dialogues
• An increased number of women and youth in FCAS have access to innovations
• Innovators have mobilized additional resources as a result of intervention
Secondary outcomes (other WPs; examples)
• Findings from collaboration with partners inform anticipatory action approach
development; partners adapt/scale tools
• Partnerships with innovators result in support on tool design for Migration
Decision-making Assessment Partnership toolset

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Emerging lessons
• There is “no silver scaling bullet”: adaptive scaling
framework stimulates multiple scaling pathways for
innovation bundles depending on the enabling
environment, human and financial resources, multi-
stakeholder partnerships and capacity
• Adaptive scaling for system transformation requires
strengthening the entire ecosystem: policy, finance,
markets, technology and capacity of actors
• Key bottleneck to scaling remains the financing
ecosystem with “missing middle” inclusive financing
gaps
• Capacity-building mechanisms for all stakeholders is
central to systems transformation and requires
innovative tailored approaches

20. Thank you