3. Motivation for ChoosingTopic
Why are grizzly bears important?
• Umbrella Species
• Protecting Grizzly Bear habitat
protects the habitat of many animals
• Endangered Species
• British Columbia is our shared home
Habitat Loss
Climate
Change
Urban Growth
5. Objectives
1
Creating a model that captures the
decrease in viable grizzly bear habitat
due to urban growth in the regions
surrounding the Sunshine Coast based
upon known data.
2
Forecasting the grizzly bear habitat for
the following possible scenarios:
• if the rate of urban growth decreases
• if the rate of urban growth continues
as is
• if the rate of urban growth increases
6. The Bear Essentials:Theoretical
Background
Using Cellular Automata (CA) for Urban
Growth
• Explicitly takes neighbourhood
effects/interaction into account
models spatially auto-correlated
patterns
• Effectively represents complex
phenomenon with simple rules
• Discrete representation of space and
time
(Mustafa, Saadi, Cools, &Teller, 2014)
7. The Bear Essentials:Theoretical
Background
Using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE)
• Assists assessment of a region based
upon multiple factors
• Supports decision making process
(Mohammed, Elhadarry, & Samat, 2016)
Image Source (Wu & Webster, 1998)
8. The Bear Essentials: Great Bear Rainforest
Great Bear Rainforest
• Forested and mountainous coastal
region of BC home of the densest
population of Grizzly Bears in the world
Resource Exploitation
• Forestry and mining operated by
provincial government
• Land contested by numerous First
Nations
Even in GBR, Grizzlies are endangered
(Dempsey, 2010)
10. Data Sets
• Grizzly Bear Population Areas
• Digital Elevation Model
• Landuse Classification
• Parks, Ecological Reserves, and
Protected Areas
• Road Network
• StudyArea
14. Methodology: Urban Growth CA
Transition Rules
• Slow Grow
• Rule 1: If the cell is urban, it stays urban.
• Rule 2: If there are 13 or more cells urban in the 5x5 neighborhood, non-urban
cell becomes urban.
• Status Quo Grow
• Rule 1: If the cell is urban, it stays urban.
• Rule 2: If there are 8 or more cells urban in the 5x5 neighborhood, non-urban
cell becomes urban.
• Fast Grow
• Rule 1: If the cell is urban, it stays urban.
• Rule 2: If there are 5 or more cells urban in the 5x5 neighborhood, non-urban
cell becomes urban.
21. Results: QuantitativeAnalysis
• Loss of Habitat per Scenario
• Slow Grow <1% loss = 1,282.5 Km2
• 119 Football Fields
• Status Quo Grow 2% loss = 90,257.4
Km2
• 8,358 Football Fields
• Fast Grow 4% loss = 210,726.9 Km2
• 19,512 Football Fields
<1%
2%
4%
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
Slow Grow Status Quo Grow Fast Grow
LossofHabitat(%)
Loss of Habitat
22. Challenges
• Validation
• Data not lining up
• Figuring out/justifying transition rules
for CA model
• DEM model in Geographic
Coordinate System and not in
Projected Coordinate System
• Unable to get sensible slope data
Us!
Our challenges!
23. DidWe Achieve Our Objectives?
1
Creating a model that captures the
decrease in viable grizzly bear habitat
due to urban growth in the regions
surrounding the Sunshine Coast based
upon known data.
2
Forecasting the grizzly bear habitat for
the following possible scenarios: if the
rate of urban growth decreases, if the
rate of urban growth continues as is,
and if the rate of urban growth
increases.
24. References & Acknowledgments
• Suzana Dragicevic andTaylor
Anderson for their guidance.
• Justin Song and SFU SIS Labs for
technological assistance and use of
equipment.
Dempsey, J. (2010). Tracking Grizzly Bears in British Columbia's Environmental
Politics. Environment and Planning, 1138-1156.
Michel, C. (2012). Wolves attack a grizzly mother & cubs in Alaska. She escapes.
Retrieved from https://www.flickr.com/photos/cmichel67/7761841618/
Mohammed, K. S., Elhadarry, Y. A., & Samat, N. (2016). Identifying Potential
Areas for Future Urban Development Using GIS-Based Multi Criteria Evaluation
Technique. SHS Web of Conferences.
Mustafa, A., Saadi, I., Cools, M., & Teller, J. (2014). Measuring the Effect of
Stochastic Perturbation Component in Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model.
Procedia Environmental Sciences, 156-168.
Vernon, A. (2007). Alaskan Coastal Brown bear.....11. Hyder, Alaska. Retrieved
from https://www.flickr.com/photos/32541690@N02/3200789230
Wu, F., & Webster, C. J. (1998). Simulation of Land Development through the
Integration of Cellular Automata and Multicriteria Evaluation. Environment and
Planning, 103-126.
