This webinar will analyse practical measures to improve resilience to the long-term challenges posed by the transition to more environmentally sustainable production in local economies.

1. “Resilience and local Green
Economies”
1. Resilient to what? - Systemic Risk
2. Resilience – what does it look like?
3. Local Green Economy – some policies to help
Oliver Greenfield, Convenor
Green Economy Coalition
oliver.greenfield@greeneconomycoalition.org

2. • Systemic risk is the risk of “breakdowns in
an entire system, as opposed to breakdowns
in individual parts and components”.
• Systemic risks are characterized by:
– modest tipping points combining
indirectly to produce large failures
– risk-sharing or contagion, as one loss
triggers a chain of others
– “hysteresis”, or systems being unable to
recover equilibrium after a shock
• Systemic risks come from an interconnected
global economy, with global finance, global
supply chains built for efficiency BUT
dependant on stable conditions
– Can we rely on this stability?
Examples:
• 2009 financial crisis to
current economic crisis
• Banks – too big to fail
• Interdependence
• Homogeneity
• Policies – stress testing,
capital reserves etc.
• Carbon bubble:
• Costs of carbon
• Stranded assets
• Policies: Carbon
exposure economic
stress testing, divestment
What is Systemic Risk?

3. 1. Unprecedented precipitation (climate change?)
2. Rain rushes of the mountains due to
deforestation
3. Floods farms, damages infrastructure, energy
4. Farms excessive dependence on nitrogen
fertiliser, due to continual soil erosion
5. Major flood washes off unprecedented levels
of nitrogen
6. River, has been straightened and has low
levels of biodiversity – it does not clean
7. Nitrogen loaded floods wash quickly out to sea
8. Nitrogen loading creates algal bloom
9. Algal bloom kills local fish-stocks, creates
dead-zones
10. Local implications: Harder to get
insurance, so harder to get investment,
rebuilding
11. Small businesses and communities face
systemic economic decline
Systemic Risk – Weathering the storm

4. Food price rises, crops and fish failure, food availability, housing flooded, energy price
rises and systems failing, transport price rises, roads & rail system failures
Increased anxiety Changing consumer
behaviours & preferences
Declining confidence in
governance
Disruptive change, opportunities and liabilities, stranded carbon assets, loss of profitability,
Litigation, Licence to operate
Crisis of confidence
- response?
Carbon price, reporting legislations, removal of subsidies,
water rationing, major political change
Systemic Risk – contagion across systems
Systemic Risk – system interactions

5. • For a system to be resilient, no single entity or
approach should dominate…
• Improved management of systemic risks:
– Sustainable Development Goals
– Financial stability board – (are they stress testing
for carbon bubbles?)
• ….AND Local green economies
– Distributed and diverse economic systems able to
withstand shocks, innovate, create community
wellbeing, prosperity and jobs.
Resilience to Systemic Risk

6. 5. Measuring progress
• Sustainable development goals locally
• Small business numbers and vitality
• Community resilience
4. Influencing financial flows
• Local taxes for local economies
• Local banking – small scale sustainability
banks - Germany (cooperative and public
savings banks), GABV
3. Greening economic sectors
• Distributed renewables owned locally
• Local food systems
• Vibrant SMEs and green business
innovation parks
2. Investing in people
• Inclusive regional economic planning
• Community development plans
A resilient local Green Economy – 5 policy areas
1. Managing natural capital
• PES for system resilience and local jobs

7. 3 Key points:
Thank you
Oliver Greenfield, Convenor, Green Economy Coalition
oliver.greenfield@greeneconomycoalition.org
1. Systemic risk - A global interconnected system built for
efficiency contending with increasing volatility
2. Resilience is diversity – in scale, type and approach
3. Local green economies – need 5 areas of policy:
measurement& governance, finance, sectors, people
investment, natural capital management