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From Vulnerability assessments to adaptation -Martin Konig

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From Vulnerability assessments to adaptation -Martin Konig

  1. 1. Climate Forum East: adaptation workshop Tbilissi, March 26th-28th 2014 adaptation (appraisal) 1 Martin König Environment Agency Austria Department for Environmental Impact Assessment and Climate Change From vulnerability assessments to
  2. 2. EU guidelines on the adaptation process EU(COM) (2013) CVA NAS prepare implementation
  3. 3. Some key questions for the CVA/NAS process 1. Which sectors/regions are most vulnerable? 2. Which parts of economy are most sensitive? 3. Which ecosystems might collapse/have low resilience under changing climate regimes? 4. Which meteorological extreme events (have) cause(d) major damages/losses? How is their trend/projection? 5. Which gradual shifts do we have to adapt to? 6. Are there any opportunities due to climate change we should make use of? 7. What is the range of uncertainty we have to face? ----------- 1. Which conflicts among stakeholders/sectoral interests are already visible? 2. Which mainstreaming potential with sectoral policies can already be detected? 3. How can the suggested adaptation measures be prioritized?
  4. 4. Some core demands in the realms of CCA 4  How much is Climate Change for our economy (in monetary terms)?  How much public investment is needed for adaptation?  What about the private adaptation potential to relief public budgets?  What are the threats of maladaptation?  In terms of trade offs with mitigation targets  In terms of trade offs with environmental/sustainability targets  In terms of path dependencies  In terms of competition (‘only the strong survive’ – oligopolistic structures) and harming others
  5. 5. Some adaptation starters 5 Impact chains: 1. Urban heat waves 2. Drought in agriculture -> forest fires 3. Slope instability, mass movements 4. floods Mostly affected: 1. Urban (elderly) population, construction and building 2. Farmers, foresters 3. Infrastructures (housing, energy, transport) 4. Infrastructures and agricultural yields, (ecosystems)
  6. 6. Urban heat waves 6 Potable water supply Afforestration around cities blue areas and water vapouring Shading & green roofs Active cooling (A/C) Passive cooling green areas Increase albedo Heat alert system/early warning Costs? Responsibilities? Private/public capacities? Synergies? Trade-Offs? Mainstreaming into pertinent Policy domains – where and when?
  7. 7. Drought in agriculture/forestry 7 Water reservoirs Crop variation Risk transfer/drought insurance Irrigation Which one? Water harvesting Forest fire management Low tillage Costs? Responsibilities? Private/public capacities? Synergies? Trade-Offs? Water markets Mainstreaming into pertinent Policy domains – where and when?
  8. 8. Mass movements -> infrastructure 8 Landslide, mudflows, avalanche risk maps Technical measures (nets, fences,...) Slope drainage Early warning/heavy precipitation Risk zoning, smart planning Costs? Responsibilities? Private/public capacities? Synergies? Trade-Offs? Protection forest management Mainstreaming into pertinent Policy domains – where and when?
  9. 9. Torrential precipitation, erosion and flooding 9 Decrease exposure of infrastructure Risk transfer mechanism Hail nets for wine and orchards Mulching to increase infiltration Increase retension areas Slope-parallel ploughing Reduce sealing Low tillage Mainstreaming into pertinent Policy domains – where and when? Costs? Responsibilities? Private/public capacities? Synergies? Trade-Offs? Remove polluting production from floodplains
  10. 10. Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -1 Importance: Capability to reduce/prevent significant or irreversible damages and/or to protect many people? Urgency: Massive damages already occurring (adaptation deficit)? Long- term measures with long handling time until measure becomes effective? Robustness and Flexibility: Does the measure reflect the range of uncertainty and is it ‘no- regret’, if the climate change is not the expected one? Might the measure be adapted, revised or made undone at low cost?
  11. 11. Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -2 Synergies and conflicts with other political goals: Capability to reduce or at least not raise GHG emissions? Cross- sectoral synergies/conflicts? Does the measure support other political goals such as biodiversity or social justice? Environmental Impacts: Does the measure help to raise resilience of ecosystem services? Is the measure invasive for ecosystems and their services? Social Impacts: Does the measure help to allocate risks in a fair manner? Is it capable to bring advantages for broad parts of society? Does the measure tackle threats for old, chronically sick and poor people?
  12. 12. Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -3 Economic reasonability: Does the measure support the general government to get along with their long-term fiscal goals? How is the return of investment/long-term CBA? Is the measure cost-effective? Feasibility: Is the measure politically opportune? Is it accepted by the aggrieved parties? Is the measure easy to implement (not too many political scales/parties involved)? How about its mainstreaming potential? Which role for CSOs? And now: we try to assess some adaptation options with a simplified assessment circle!

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