Senegal’s Referendum on March 20th 2106 Is the NO vote a strategy by contenders eying the next presidential contest?

1. Senegal’s Referendum on March 20th 2106
Is the NO vote a strategy by contenders eying the next presidential
contest?
Senegalese are being called upon to vote on the draft constitution in the oncoming
referendum based on 15 points. According to the government, the expectation is to
strengthen the republic, modernize the political system and entrench democracy and the
rule of law.
Since the announcement of this referendum, different political and social forces in the
country are taking their positions for a Yes or the No vote. And they are ready to start
campaigning.
Expectedly, the presidential camp is gunning for the YES vote. Opposing them are the
NO vote supporters, divided into two groups, the official opposition and sections of civil
society.
According to the “YES” supporters, this revision reflects a desire to solidify institutions
and to strengthen the democracy. However, their opponents, the “NO” supporters, argue
that the president, who had promised to reduce his current term in office, has reneged
on this promise and therefore has no basis push this move.
It’s on record that Macky Sall made the promise in 2012 after being elected, a position
he has been reiterating.
The “NO” vote supporters are arguing that whatever the outcome from the referendum,
one fact sticks, president Macky Sall has broken his promise. And they’ve packaged it in
a message '' Waxète Wax '', which loosely translates to ‘going back on his word’ in the
Wolof dialect.
However, when listening to the NO vote proponents, we realize that the two groups in
this camp do not share the same agenda.
Civil society, represented by the movement “Yen a Marre” and other civic and human
rights organizations, which often plays a watchdog role, seems to not have a clear
motive. They are part of ‘NO’ voters and are advocating for honouring of election
promises. For them, the president should use any means to fulfil his commitment.
But it’s the official opposition, also within the “NO” voters, that are hiding their intentions.
According to observers, this group claim to denounce the U-turn card played by the
president, an act they aver is destroying the credibility of political leaders.
Truth is, we are faced by a coterie of politicians who just want to take advantage of this
opportunity to destabilize the presidency and while at it, position themselves for the next
election.
Khalifa Ababacar, for instance, after his two terms in the mayor’s docket is now eyeing
the Presidency. He positions himself as a disciplined militant and close to the legendary
Ousmane Tanor Dieng, Secretary General of the Socialist Party.
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2. While Ousmane Tanor Dieng is rallying support for the YES vote with Macky Sall, the
plot is thickening for Khalifa. This referendum will also impact the next presidential
elections. Khalifa Sall should weigh his choices, whether to support or oppose Macky
Sall and then begin strategizing for his candidacy in the 2019 presidential election.
El Hadji Malick Gackou, leader of the Grand Parti has no choices to make. He has to
vote for NO. Often described as 'dissatisfied' of the Alliance pour la République –AFP,
and after his expulsion from the party of Moustapha Niass, Malick Gackou needs to
confront his former mentor to better confirm his break with his former party. Currently
Gackou is committed to setting up a new party. The referendum campaign is a good
sparring-bag for him to position himself as a credible contender considering the fact that
he lost in the local election, in which he was expected to win since he vied in party
headquarters, Guédiawaye, where he is popular.
Idrissa Seck, leader of the party Rewmi (‘the country’ in Wolof), the second largest
opposition party, is always shouting from rooftops on the incompetence of president
Macky Sall. Today as he campaigns for the NO vote, he is punching holes into his
opponent’s image and credibility by terming the president’s turn-around as disgraceful.
Abdoul Mbaye, even after leaving the prime minister’s office, is still perceived by many
as a potential candidate and, according to some of his relatives, ‘There are things that
he needs to achieve’, and ‘His 17 months as Premier have given him a mouth-watering
spirit.’
It is steadily becoming an open secret that the former Prime Minister was preparing
himself to throw his hat into the ring for a presidential duel. While giving his opinions on
the proposed referendum in which he supports the No vote, he has used the opportunity
to criticize the president and announce his intention to vie when the next general
elections dawn.
Beyond these positions, campaigns are in full gear and consequently, this competition is
likely to outgrow its perimeter, sensitizing citizens to vote YES or NO, since it has begun
forming a pattern that can be interpreted as a mock presidential contest.
Already we are witnessing messages from the opposition, the NO team that edge on
sensitive and even taboo issues.
On the other hand there’s proof that national television Radio Television Senegal -RTS,
is giving biased coverage to the campaigns and favouring the YES team. This continues
despite warnings from the National Audio-visual Council Regulation –CNRA.
By Abdou Salam THIAM.
Senior Campaigner for Strategy and Policy Influencing –NIYEL.
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