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US eCommerce Market Share Analysis 2013-2018
- 1. US eCommerce Market Share 20% 22% 25% 28% 33% 37% 12% 11% 10% 9% 9% 8% 68% 66% 64% 62% 59% 55% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Amazon eBay Others Sources: US Census Bureau, comScore, Forrester, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research;
- 2. US Prime Penetration and Spend Sources: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research; AlphaWise Survey 23% 35% 45% 51% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Amazon Prime US Household Penetration $2,486 $544 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Prime Non-Prime Prime v/s Non-Prime User Spend 4.6 Times More
- 3. US Consumption Basket Sources: BEA PCE, Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research Retail Product Categories US$M %of Total Grocery 7,66,836 30% Clothing 3,05,069 12% Personal care and Household products 3,01,175 12% Home Furnishings and Accessories 2,41,645 10% Consumer Electronics 2,16,911 9% Jewelry and Watches 77,167 3% Shoes 74,433 3% Sporting goods 72,429 3% Auto part and Accessories 67,000 3% Eye Glasses, Contacts and Orthopedic Appliances 67,499 3% Children's Toys and Durables 64,385 3% Pet Food and Supplies 60,035 2% Home Improvement Items and Tools 50,732 2% Office and School Supplies for Home Use 47,013 2% Large Home Appliances 41,509 2% Books 41,068 2% Luggage 35,132 1% Other 12,575 0% Total 25,42,613
- 4. Amazon Cost per Package Comparison Sources: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates $8 ~$5 $4 ~$3 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 UPS/FDX Revenue/Package Estimated AMZN Cost/Package Estimated UPS Last Mile Cost/Package USPS Revenue/Package Cost per Package
- 5. Prime Subscriber Base Sources: AlixPartners "Final Mile Delivery, July 2016", Morgan Stanley Research 13 19 28 42 54 62 5 8 12 18 34 45 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Estimated Number of Prime Members (M) US International
- 6. Amazon Leasing Patterns Sources: AlphaWise, Costar, Company documents, various media articles, Morgan Stanley Research 385,000 477,000 1,061,000 - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Phase1 : Pre-2009 Phase2: 2010-13 Phase3: 2014-16 Average Population with 10 Miles
- 7. Benefits of Acquisition of Whole Foods Sources: AlphaWise, Costar, Morgan Stanley Research estimates WholeFoods Amazon WholeFoods+Amazon Kroger Costco Walmart Populationwithin10milesofstoreorwarehouseinmillions(a) 147 85 164 151 172 290 TotalUSCensuspopulationinfootprintinmillions(b) 216 180 221 184 229 324 Marketpenetration(adividedbyb) 68% 47% 74% 82% 75% 90% Averageincome within10miles US$103K US$91K US$100K US$85K US$97K US$82K MillennialPenetrationwithin10milesofstoreorwarehouseinmillions 35 21 40 36 41 68 Numberofstores+distributioncenters ~450+ ~200+ ~650+ ~2800+ ~500+ ~3950+