1. O
n a scale of -2 (most negative)
to 2 (most positive), we asked
the most Astute Investors to
rate their outlook for the
Asian G3 bond markets in the year ahead
and the reasons behind their rating.
HONG KONG
Desmond How and Ran Li
Nomura Global Capital Management
Outlook: 2
The J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index
(JACI) returned -3% so far in 2013, on
the back of a 130bp yield rise. The pre-
mature sell-off in US treasuries has been
the main culprit of bad performance as
spreads only widened 35bp on the year.
Asia’s best fundamentals may have passed
us as sovereigns issue debt to refill coffers
and the corporate sector releverages post
Lehman. Still, the 1997 Asian currency
crisis will not resurface as our current
floating exchange rate regime absorbs and
transmits shocks well today. Moreover,
More rising stars
and fallen angels
Asian credits stand to benefit from a measured US fed tapering
Investors are cautious. They are
unsure about the global macro-
picture and about when and
how quickly the US Federal
Reserve will end its programme
of quantitative easing. Signs of
money outflows from emerging to
developed market assets and of a
global asset reallocation from fixed
income into equity market are
injecting volatility into the market
– By Asset Benchmark Research improving economic growth and higher
demand for DM goods. Also, the improv-
ing business environment bodes well for
credit investment. As such, we expect
Asian G3 bond credit spreads to compress
over time.
SINGAPORE
Charles Ooi
Tahan Capital
Outlook: 0
Valuations are becoming attrac­tive
but face headwinds from challenging tech-
nicals, such as dealers’ thin balance sheets,
heavy supply pipeline and the fact that the
outflow trend from fixed income has yet
to stabilize and turn around meaningfully.
Markets will go through periods of exces-
sive pessimism and optimism, requiring us
to stay nimble and trade.
Ronie Ganguly
PIMCO
Outlook: 1
While valuations in Asian credit still
look attractive overall, a greater focus on
bottom-up analysis is going to be the key.
default rates look set to remain muted
considering a prolonged low interest
rates environment with abundant financ-
ing options. The record-breaking bond
issuance will be met by a bond redemp-
tion hump into 2014. It is arguably a
Goldilocks scenario albeit with higher
volatility from market risk. Indeed, valu-
ations appear more appealing now than
a few quarters ago. People have been
overpaying attention to tactical fund flows
of late, and forget that dedicated inves-
tors are here to stay since Asian bonds
– as part of emerging market (EM) debt
– have been elevated to mainstream asset
class status. Subpar global growth coupled
with sticky unemployment in the US and
Europe will keep interest rates and equity
valuations in check. The Great Rotation
course – be it debt to equity or EM to
developed market (DM) – just lacks meat.
Arthur Lau
PineBridge Investments
Outlook: 1
We are positive about the Asian G3
bond markets in the year ahead as we
believe Asia’s economies will benefit from
November 2013 43
Desmond How
Nomura Global Capital
Management
Arthur Lau
PineBridge Investments
Charles Ooi
Tahan Capital
Ronie Ganguly
PIMCO
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All rights reserved. Asset Publishing and Research Limited

2. Against a backdrop of recovering DM
economies, slowing EM growth, a more
leveraged balance sheet and a tightening
rate environment, we are going to see
credit differentiation.
In valuation terms, Asian investment-
grade (IG) bonds, for instance, look
attractive against DM peers, but there
is little differentiation between struc-
ture variations of credit at the moment.
Similarly, high-yield (HY) markets are
failing to recognize the refinancing risk
in the 2015-2016 period and expecting
the benign default environment – seen in
last two to three years – to persist in the
medium term.
Thus, while overall spread levels are
attractive and the global investor alloca-
tion to Asia is likely to rise, we expect
more rising stars and fallen angels to
appear over the next 12 months.
Arun Singhal
Standard Chartered Bank Principal Strategies
Outlook: 1
I expect tighter financial conditions,
increasing leverage and increasing supply
to be a drag on Asian G3 credit. That is
offset to a degree by structural demand
for fixed-income products and relatively
attractive valuations. Hence, I remain
constructive about the Asian G3 bond
markets in my base case.
CHINA
Larry Xin
Fore Research & Management
Outlook: 0
I am bearish in my outlook for the
overall Asian credit markets on account
of the deteriorating fundamentals: rising
leverage, tightening borrowing condi-
tions and the lack of free cash flow
generation. However the ample liquid-
ity and benign DM growth outlook will
limit any downside.
INDONESIA
Poniman Zheng
Asuransi Jiwa Sequis Life
Outlook: -1
The diverging growth outlook for
DM and Asian markets and the Fed taper-
ing is likely to reduce the funds inflow into
the Asian bond markets. However, the
credit profiles of Asian countries are still
better than those of the DM and should
therefore somehow provide a degree of
support to the markets.
Ezra Nazula
Manulife Asset Management
Outlook: 0
US economic data and actions taken
by the Fed will continue to affect the
Asian G3 bond markets. Even though
Asian G3 bond yields have more or less
priced in the possibility of a QE tapering
and even though spreads to US treasuries
are at yearly highs, volatility remains to be
seen in Asian G3 bonds amid uncertain-
ties over the global macro-picture.
Wiman Kastami
BNP Paribas Investment Partners
Outlook: 0
In the year ahead, I foresee political
risks and a higher risk of a US tapering.
KOREA
Oh Chungkeun
Industrial Bank of Korea
Outlook: 1
Supporting this positive outlook is
the higher concession in terms of the
risk premium (credit spread) against the
same-rated counterparts from Europe
and the US.
The counterarguments are: (i) the
supply overhang (and the need to be selec-
tive and picky to choose the right one);
(ii) the technical money outflow from EM
assets into DM; and (iii) the global asset
reallocation from fixed income to equity.
MALAYSIA
Esther Teo
Hwang Investment Management
Outlook: -1
It has been a challenging year for the
Asian G3 bond markets since the Fed
tapering talks in May 2013 caught the
market by surprise. The sharp steepening
of the US treasuries curve, coupled with
the reversal of fund flows from EM to
DM, caused Asian credit spreads to widen
and bond prices to tumble. While the Fed
has held back its decision to scale down
its US$85 billion purchase of bonds in
September, inevitably we still expect the
Fed to start tapering in December 2013
or early 2014. Our base case is for the Fed
to adopt Taper-lite as the US economic
growth is still fragile. These uncertain-
ties will continue to cause volatility in US
treasuries and investors remain cautious.
Meanwhile, issuers are rushing to the
market before rates go higher.
We anticipate the credit spread to
widen from here as new issuances will
have to offer higher yield concessions to
draw investors. Investors will be choosier
in their credit selections based on valua-
tions and technical factors.
After the large outflows in the last
few months, we expect fund outflows to
stabilize somewhat. Going into 2014, we
still favour short duration.
Arun Singhal
Standard Chartered
Bank Principal
Strategies
Larry Xin
Fore Research &
Management
Poniman Zheng
Asuransi Jiwa
Sequis Life
Ezra Nazula
Manulife Asset
Management
Wiman Kastami
BNP Paribas
Investment Partners
44 November 2013
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All rights reserved. Asset Publishing and Research Limited

3. November 2013 45
really changed over the past quarter
but perceptions and risk appetites have,
which have moved technical measures
negative. Historically, credit spreads
will tighten in an improving economic
environment. However, recent negative
fund flows have overwhelmed credit
spreads to widen instead. We expect this
historical relationship to return once the
market stabilizes.
Our base case assumption is that
yields on ten-year treasuries in 2014 will
be around 3.25%-3.50%. We expect
a lot of volatility in the market in the
coming months, considering how data-
dependent market behaviour is these
days. In view of the extent and pace
of the sell-off, we note that there are
opportunities in the market of which we
can take advantage, both in relative value
as well as in an absolute sense.
Wong Schuen-Siang
RHB Investment Bank
Outlook: -1
My negative view is based on four
factors: (i) the fundamentals (the credit
cycle) are turning more adverse with
slowing growth and rising real rates; (ii)
the prospect of a US (and global central
bank) policy tightening in 2014 translates
into risks for Asian countries with “weak”
external positions; (iii) the potential for
spread compression is constrained by
supply; and (iv) valuations have become
less attractive following the summer rally.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
Mohit Bhatla
Waha Capital
Outlook: 0
While the Asian markets have
recovered partially from the summer
sell-off, we expect the next few months
to remain challenging. The uncertain-
ty around US interest rates coupled
with the fundamental issues facing
some of the major Asian economies
(including India and Indonesia) will
continue to present headwinds. The
ever increasing supply pipeline will
further cap the upside.
PHILIPPINES
Nadine Alapan
Banco de Oro
Outlook: -1
The deferral of Fed’s tapering has
eased financial conditions in Asia and
triggered a knee-jerk rebound in EM
risk assets. However, this does not
change the trend of rising US treasur-
ies yields nor solve structural concerns
in EM.
There are still regional headwinds
that include slower growth in China
and growing current and fiscal deficits
in India and Indonesia. Political uncer-
tainties with the upcoming 2014 elec-
tions in India and Indonesia are among
the key issues in the region. On top
of that, exogenous factors continue to
dampen sentiment, including geopo-
litical risks in the Middle East, politi-
cal developments in Italy and political
posturing in the US on the debt ceiling
and shutdown issues.
These will continue to drive nega-
tive headlines for Asia, but should not
derail the long-term trend of credit
compression when global growth picks
up, particularly in the US.
In view of this, I intend to trade EM
tactically from the long side to favour
short-dated bonds on credits that are
structurally stable.
Jason Wong
Hong Leong Bank
Outlook: 0
Four negatives
are somewhat miti-
gated by two posi-
tives. The negatives
are (i) the collateral
impact – other than
just mark-to-mar-
ket (MTM) impli-
cations – of a delayed QE tapering
and rising US treasuries yields; (ii)
the impact on commodity prices of a
slower-than-expected growth in China;
(iii) the possibility that twin deficit
issues may spread beyond India and
Indonesia, considering that structural
reforms will be slow and that the extent
of policy tightening across Asia may
hurt growth expectations; and (iv) Asian
low beta IG names are getting expen-
sive, offering a small 25-30bp pickup
over similar rated peers in the US. The
higher beta IG names and HY space
would be challenging and more prone
to a sell-off on the back of macro-
vulnerabilities.
The positives are that (i) Asia’s
foreign reserves are in a healthy state
compared to 1997 and corporate and
bank balance sheets are cleaner and less
leveraged; and (ii) growth in the US/
Europe will be slow, so monies will
linger around Asia, but be less sticky
than before.
Nik Zaki Abdullah
CIMB-Principal Islamic Asset
Management
Outlook: 1
We are still bullish in Asian mar-
kets/EM for the long term and with the
US economic recovery under way, we
believe any EM weakness will be short
to medium term in nature. The boost
to exports from stronger US growth
should supplement slowdowns in China,
which are hurting commodity export-
ers in Asia. Inflation remains subdued
in EM economies and most balance
sheets are still in good shape to absorb
a long transition toward more normal
core market rates.
We believe fundamentals have not
Esther Teo
Hwang Investment
Management
Jason Wong
Hong Leong Bank
Nik Zaki Abdullah
CIMB-Principal Islamic
Asset Management
Wong Schuen-Siang
RHB Investment Bank
Oh Chungkeun
Industrial Bank of
Korea
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All rights reserved. Asset Publishing and Research Limited

4. b Top ranked for the past three years or longer
The most Astute Investors in Asian G3 denominated bonds in 2013
HONG KONG Roll of
Rank Name Company honour
1 Desmond How Nomura Global Capital Management b
2 Madeline Foo BTG Pactual b
3 Richard Chun Claren Road Asset Management b
4 Ran Li Nomura Global Capital Management b
5 Arthur Lau PineBridge Investments b
= Desmond Chum Claren Road Asset Management b
7 Donald Ewer BTG Pactual b
8 Rob Stanley BFAM Partners
9 Job Campbell Income Partners
10 Andrew Seiz Pine River Capital Management b
11 Punit Patel Och-Ziff Capital Management
12 Alfred Mui HSBC Global Asset Management b
13 Ma Linlin Prudence Investment Management
14 Gregory Suen HSBC Global Asset Management b
15 Chad Liu Prudence Investment Management
16 Thomas Kwan Harvest Global Investments
17 Christine Cheung GaveKal Capital
= Eric Liu Harvest Global Investments
19 Thomas Chan J.P. Morgan Private Bank
20 Stephen Chang J.P. Morgan Asset Management
21 Freddy Wong Fidelity Investment Management
= Ivan Lee Serica Partners
23 Eric Lam BNP Paribas Wealth Management
= Roger Wong Bank of China International
25 Kevin Wu BFAM Partners
26 Matthew Wong EVO Capital Management Asia
27 Andy Suen PineBridge Investments
28 James Wong BOCHK Asset Management
29 Edward Chan HSBC Private Bank
= Alvin Ying BOC Group Life Assurance
SINGAPORE
1 Charles Ooi Tahan Capital b
2 Leong Wai-Hoong Nikko Asset Management b
3 Ronie Ganguly PIMCO
4 Arun Singhal Standard Chartered Bank Principal Strategies b
5 Mark Thurgood Saka Capital b
6 Chia Tse-Chern UOB Asset Management
7 Angus Hui Schroder Investment Management b
8 Kon Chee-Keat Ashmore Investment Management
9 Tan Suanjin BlackRock
10 Sandeep Gupta Broadpeak Investments b
11 Chia Tse-Ern Tahan Capital b
12 Raymond Chia Schroder Investment Management b
13 Gopi Karunakaran Saka Capital
14 Assan Din Saka Capital b
15 Bryan Choo Tahan Capital b
= Ross Dilkes UBS Global Asset Management
17 Daniel Yu OCBC
18 Chng Oon-Jin Western Asset Management
19 Artur Piasecki BlackRock
20 Salman Niaz Goldman Sachs Asset Management
21 Mark Ong GIC b
22 Archana Parekh Seatown Holdings
= Joyce Tan UOB Asset Management
24 Lian Chia-Liang Western Asset Management b
25 Nigel Foo First State Investments
26 Ashwin Aiyappan Saka Capital
27 Roland Mieth PIMCO
28 Tim Jagger Aviva Investors
29 Veronica Ng Lion Global Investors b
30 Amit Malik Standard Chartered Wealth Management
= Hari Thirumalai Observatory Capital
= Philippe Petit Pictet Asset Management
= Joep Huntjens ING Investment Management
CHINA Roll of
Rank Name Company honour
1 Larry Xin Fore Research & Management
INDONESIA
1 Poniman Zheng Asuransi Jiwa Sequis Life
2 Ni Made Daryanti Allianz Life
3 Djumala Sutedja Eastspring Investments
= Ezra Nazula Manulife Asset Management
5 Wiman Kastami BNP Paribas Investment Partners
KOREA
1 Lee Kyoungtaek Korea Investment Corporation
2 Oh Chungkeun Industrial Bank of Korea
MALAYSIA
1 Esther Teo Hwang Investment Management
2 Jason Wong Hong Leong Bank b
= Nik Zaki Abdullah CIMB-Principal Islamic Asset Management
4 Wong Schuen-Siang RHB Investment Bank
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
1 Mohit Bhatla Waha Capital
PHILIPPINES
1 Nadine Alapan Banco de Oro b
2 Voltaire Cabral Security Bank Corporation
3 Rustum H Corpuz Jr East West Bank b
4 Jerome J Lagustan RCBC
= Alberto Pedrosa RCBC
6 Christina Escolar UnionBank of the Philippines b
7 Dondi Santillan Metrobank
8 Vikki Guevara Philippine National Bank
9 Analen Reyes Banco de Oro
10 Joy Charmaine Bank of the Philippine Islands
Sahilan
UK/EUROPE
1 Alistair Ling GLG Partners Market Neutral Fund b
2 Richard Lange Stone Harbor Investment Partners
= Edwin Gutierrez Aberdeen Asset Management
4 Raymond Sagayam Pictet Asset Management
5 Amy Kam GAM
6 Esther Chan Aberdeen Asset Management
7 Philipp Good Fisch Asset Management
8 Polina Kurdyavko BlueBay Asset Management b
9 Mehdi Mrad Natixis
10 Rav Singh J.P. Morgan Asset Management
11 Steve Cook PineBridge Investments
12 Alan Siow BlueBay Asset Management
= Philip Meier Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management
US
1 Tieu-Bich Nguyen Wellington Management b
2 John Espinosa TIAA-CREF b
3 Lionel Jolivot Fore Research & Management
4 Johnny Mak Prudential Investment Management b
5 Lin Yuchen UBS Global Asset Management b
6 Javier Segovia TCW
7 Alex Stanojevic TCW b
8 Warren Mar Morgan Stanley Investment Management
9 Sean Hayes Wellington Management
10 Lisa Chin HSBC Global Asset Management b
11 Eric Chung Gracie Asset Management
12 LIEW Seng Mackay Shields
13 Arthur Hovsepian Payden & Rygel Investment Management
= Daniel Shaykevich Vanguard
= Sahil Tandon Morgan Stanley Asset Management
(capitalizations denote surnames)
46 November 2013
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All rights reserved. Asset Publishing and Research Limited

5. November 2013 47
Voltaire Cabral
Security Bank
Corporation
Outlook: 0
I am neutral on
Asian G3 bonds as
the Fed is expected
to end quantitative
easing next year and
some EM econo-
mies are showing weak fundamentals.
However, most of the reactions – espe-
cially in the end of the Fed’s QE – have
been largely priced in. It would be
crucial for some Asian economies to
be proactive in addressing low growth-
high inflation coupled with fiscal defi-
cits. Differentiation across sovereigns
and credits on the basis of fundamentals
should drive relative performance in
EM portfolios in the year ahead.
Alberto Pedrosa
RCBC
Outlook: -1
We expect risk free rates to drift
somewhat lower over the balance of 2014
and spreads on Asian bonds to drift some-
what wider from current levels. The taper-
ing will likely come at a slow pace with
the termination of QE as late as the last
quarter of 2014. For Asian external debt,
there is a risk of heightened volatility in
both India and Indonesia next year due to
elections, and the fact that both countries
face ratings downgrade pressure. Asian
corporates will find refinancing more chal-
lenging next year, with higher than aver-
age new-issue premiums likely. Country
and corporate differentiation will be the
key drivers of performance next year.
UK/EUROPE
Alistair Ling
GLG Partners Market Neutral Fund
Outlook: -1
Three reasons. First, the non-taper
September rally – while positive in the
short term – arguably did more long-
term harm than good to the EM Asian
credit market. Had the Fed tapered, credit
market sentiment would have certainly
suffered, but the proximity to the fourth
quarter would have facilitated a capitula-
tive repricing as well as position-clearing.
While painful, this would have set up
market participants with a clean sheet and
attractive valuations to begin 2014.
As it stands instead, the market has
partially clawed back some of the extreme
losses of June and August 2013 but now
runs the real risk of re-living these losses
– and more – as we face the prospect of a
future taper. Second, the current market
environment is not conducive to long-
term thematic trades. This means that
conviction-style positioning cannot be
sustained and instead participants have
to contend with choppy, bipolar market
action by constantly adjusting their port-
folio to achieve a dynamic neutral stance.
Third, the macro-reaction by most Asian
authorities to the August confidence scare
has been to improve current account bal-
ances by restraining monetary growth
and domestic consumption. This will
present a negative drag on earnings which
– in the grand scheme of things – is prob-
ably a necessary evil, but this will not
improve corporate credit quality. All in
all, this challenging environment will
probably persist until valuations dete-
riorate to the point where they become
indisputably cheap.
Richard Lange
Stone Harbor Investment Partners
Outlook: 0
Stone Harbor is overall neutral on
the Asia G3 corporate bond markets. The
strong technical support provided so far
by Asian investors is balanced with the
risk of further new issues and an overall
pricing context that looks, if not overly
expensive, at least fully priced when com-
pared to other EM regions, in particular
Latin America.
Also, we think the rising rate envi-
ronment may erode demand from Asian
investors for the tightest IG issues and see
better opportunities for good returns in
the BB space.
Edwin Gutierrez
Aberdeen Asset Management
Outlook: 1
EM debt has never had two con-
secutive negative years. In fact, the sell-off
we just experienced from May through
August was as long as any that we have
experienced in the asset class. You have
to go all the way back to the beginning
of 1994 to find a comparably long sell-
off, which was when Volcker surprised
the market by hiking rates. When Fed
hikes come this time around, that will
hardly be a surprise as it has been well
telegraphed. So we have priced in a lot of
bad news on the US treasuries front.
This is an unusual sell-off in that
when the rally in EM debt ends, it usually
ends in crisis. Bond prices go down hard
and fast and then rebound. There is no
crisis this time so it’s much more slow-
burn and unwind from expensive levels
– which has made it more difficult to find
equilibrium this time around. The dan-
ger here is ironically the Fed’s failure to
taper. For the past few months we have
had a healthy clean-out of positioning
and a reset of valuations in the asset class.
The Fed’s delay in starting to bring
an end to its QE risks that short-term
investors get sucked back in to earn a
quick buck. That delays the necessary
position clean-out and reset of valuations
to new equilibrium levels.
This doesn’t change the fact that
overall I remain positive about the asset
class for 2014. I just wanted this adjust-
ment process to largely be done by 2013.
The Fed’s inaction could push part of
that needed adjustment into the begin-
ning of 2014.
Mohit Bhatla
Waha Capital
Nadine Alapan
Banco de Oro
Alistair Ling
GLG Partners Market
Neutral Fund
Voltaire Cabral
Security Bank Corporation
Richard Lange
Stone Harbor
Investment Partners
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All rights reserved. Asset Publishing and Research Limited

6. Raymond Sagayam
Pictet Asset Management
Outlook: -1
I am significantly more cautious
on Asian credit than I have been for a
while. There are far too many aspects
which could disappoint, although the
timing is uncertain. Indonesia and India
continue to display external vulnerabil-
ity. Whilst northern Asian credit has
outperformed southern Asian credit –
as exemplified by Korean and Chinese
IG performance to date – I don’t think
enough attention has been paid to ris-
ing private sector indebtedness. The
YTD weakness of the yen is still taking
time to work through the system and
can take a toll on the more export-ori-
entated economies. While Indian credit
has stabilized of late, concerns about
sovereign/banking rating pressures are
justified.
I feel that another focal point of inves-
tors in the upcoming months could well
be questions regarding Chinese growth
and concerns about the nature of shadow
banking – even though such
questions have subsided of
late. When all this is con-
sidered, Asian credit exhibits,
potentially, more vulnerabil-
ity than other EM regions.
High quality BBB/A
Latin-American credits
(excluding Brazil where
it is right to be cautious)
offer similar spreads and are
more immunized from these
issues. We haven’t witnessed
significant institutional sell-
ing of credit risk in Asia nor
a leveraged private banking
unwind yet. If this were to
materialize, the downside
volatility and gap risk in cash bonds
would be acute.
In short, I see a better risk reward in
other EM regions (such as Latin America)
and better technicals in DM credit (such
as Europe which is experiencing negative
net new issue supply, unlike Asia).
Amy Kam
GAM
Outlook: 0
Three factors:
(i) the connection between US taper-
ing and rates volatility: a tapering delay
suggest a near-term stability, and if no
tapering occurs in October, stability may
last longer;
(ii) I am cautiously optimistic that
the new Chinese government can make
progress on reform while maintaining a
decent level of growth so as to avoid a
hard landing; and
(iii) the macro-backdrop of concerns
about India and Indonesia. The Indian
government seems still far away from
doing what’s needed.
US
Tieu-Bich Nguyen
Wellington Management
Outlook: 1
Driven by stronger global growth
and policy flexibility, Asia is one
area which will enjoy better growth
prospects. These factors underpin
stable credit fundamentals although
we recognize that certain countries
with structural imbalances will face
challenging conditions. The removal
of liquidity and loose monetary poli-
cies have in general exposed macro-
economic imbalances in EM econo-
mies which, we find, are more limited
in Asia.
We view the adoption of struc-
tural reforms in China as a positive
long-term driver for balanced growth
for the region, although the path will
not be smooth. In addition, several
countries in Asia – including Korea,
Malaysia and Taiwan – will benefit
from the rebound in global manufac-
turing and trade.
Offsetting these con-
structive trends are clear
trends of credit tightening
and large funding needs that
reinforce the need to focus
on fundamentally strong
credits over valuations.
John Espinosa
TIAA-CREF
Outlook: -1
Driving our outlook
for the Asia G3 bond mar-
kets is a less constructive
macro-view of China, and
the remaining overhang of
the Fed tapering pressuring
Most Astute Investors – Outlook for the Asian G3 bond markets
in the year ahead (by region)
87 of the most Astute Investors from this year’s ranking provided their outlook
Source: The Asset Asian G3 Bonds Benchmark Review 2013
Tieu-Bich Nguyen
Wellington
Management
John Espinosa
TIAA-CREF
Johnny Mak
Prudential Investment
Management
Edwin Gutierrez
Aberdeen Asset
Management
Raymond Sagayam
Pictet Asset
Management
Amy Kam
GAM
48 November 2013
No unauthorized reproduction by any means.
All rights reserved. Asset Publishing and Research Limited

7. The Top Investment Houses in Asian G3 Bonds 2013 and their Astute Investors
Institution Nominated individuals
1. Nomura Global Capital Management Desmond How, Nicholas Zhang, Ran Li (all HK)
2. Saka Capital Ashwin Aiyappan, Assan Din, Gopi Karunakaran, Mark Thurgood (all SG)
3. Tahan Capital Bryan Choo, Charles Ooi, Chia Tse-Ern, Ng Yong-Ngee (all SG)
4. Claren Road Asset Management Desmond Chum, Kasemsak ‘Joe’ Charoensiddhi, Richard Chun (all HK)
5. BTG Pactual Donald Ewer, Madeline Foo (all HK)
6. BlackRock
Artur Piasecki (SG), Dan Gelfand (US), Daniel Ruiz (US), Lee Dongchan (SG),
Joel Kim (SG), Neeraj Seth (SG), Tan Suanjin (SG), Sumit Bhandari (SG)
= Schroder Investment Management
Ang Chow-Yang (SG), Angus Hui (HK), Julia Ho (SG), Luke Chua (SG),
Ng Peng-Fong (HK), Rajeev De Mello (SG), Raymond Chia (SG),
Richard Brown (SG), Souf.at Hartawan (ID), Steve Kong (SG)
8. Nikko Asset Management Ivy Thung, Ken Hirose, Koh Liang-Choon, Leong Wai-Hoong (all SG)
9. HSBC Global Asset Management
Alfred Mui (HK), Gregory Suen (HK), Fung Honyu (HK), James Veneau (HK),
Jason Pang (HK), Jennifer Chang (HK), Lisa Chin (US), Yeoh Seok-Poh (HK),
Wilson Yip (HK)
10. PineBridge Investments
Andy Suen (HK), Annie Leung (HK), Arthur Lau (HK), Chris Perryman (UK),
Mark Lo (HK), Steve Cook (UK)
November 2013 49
yields of US treasuries.
As China is one of the largest issuers
in the region, macro-weakness could
negatively affect returns. Indirectly, the
prospect of deleveraging and slower
growth in China could weigh on the
Asian G3 bond markets due to the
region’s growing trade and financial
links to the country.
The prospect of monetary normali-
zation by the Fed could serve as a drag
on total returns, even if credit spreads
tighten. In addition, we believe that the
credit cycle across the region has likely
peaked with recent signals of slower
growth, higher interest rates, and grow-
ing current account imbalances by vari-
ous countries in the region pointing to
this scenario.
We can see greater pressure on
asset quality for banks, along with ris-
ing leverage and weaker liquidity for
corporates serving as a weaker funda-
mental backdrop for the market. With
weaker fundamentals and pressure on
capital appreciation from the prospect
of higher rates, credit selection, carry,
and duration management should prove
key to generating outperformance in
the year ahead.
Johnny Mak
Prudential Investment Management
Outlook: 1
We are positive about Asian G3 credit.
While it has outperformed EM during the
Fed “taper-led” summer sell-off, a lot of
value has been created in selected high qual-
ity credits. We are of the view that while a
Fed tapering may be inevitable, it will be at
a measured pace, which will be positive for
EM and Asia credits. China growth is one
of the major concerns for 2014 and while
guidance is still for 7%+ growth, we fear the
market has not priced in the potential for it
to fall below the target.
Can Aristotle’s wisdom be applied
to investment management? Is the
whole greater than the sum of its con-
stituent parts? We analyzed the 2013
nominees of the Astute Investors in
Asian G3 Bonds award to see which
institutions featured the most prom-
inently. This year we announce the
Top Investment Houses in Asian G3
Bonds. This new award is based on the
number of votes that Astute Investors
have received.
Nomura Global Capital Manage-
ment was ranked first with three nomi-
nated individuals: Desmond How, Ran
Li and Nicholas Zhang. One reason for
Nomura’s triumph is that How was the
top-scoring Astute Investor overall for
the 5th year running and Ran Li was
ranked 4th in Hong Kong. Two hedge
funds based in Singapore were runners
up: Saka Capital was ranked in second
place and Tahan Capital third. Both
institutions shared an equal number
(four) of Astute Investors; all from Saka
Capital and three from Tahan Capital
were ranked in the top 30.
Methodology: The ranking is generated
according to the number of votes, received
from the top-rated analysts, economist &
credit strategists, salespeople and traders, for
investors in these institutions. More than 400
investors from 200 institutions were involved:
40% are Asian asset managers, 30% interna-
tional asset managers, 21% private banks and
9% are hedge funds.
The ten investment houses garnering the most votes
Note: Numbers in brackets indicate how many Astute Investors in the institution were nominated in 2013
Source: The Asset Asian G3 Bonds Benchmark Review 2013
Numberofvotesreceived
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