Overview of some important issues in the housing market in the Republic of Ireland. Focus on the affordability of housing costs, scope for increased investment and a quick look at the demographic and economic pressures driving demand.

1. AFFORDABILITY, FINANCE
AND DEMAND
Housing Agency
16 December 2015
Daragh McCarthy
mccarthy.daragh@gmail.com
086-176-1772

2. EM P L O Y M E N T ,
IN C O M E & AF F O R D A B L E UN I T S

3. P R O P E R T Y P R I C E I N D E X
Base=2007, M2 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
'05,M1
'05,M5
'05,M9
'06,M1
'06,M5
'06,M9
'07,M1
'07,M5
'07,M9
'08,M1
'08,M5
'08,M9
'09,M1
'09,M5
'09,M9
'10,M1
'10,M5
'10,M9
'11,M1
'11,M5
'11,M9
'12,M1
'12,M5
'12,M9
'13,M1
'13,M5
'13,M9
'14,M1
'14,M5
'14,M9
'15,M1
'15,M5
'15,M9
Apartment (Dublin)
House (Dublin)
House (National, ex Dublin)
Source: CSO, HPM01 (2015)

4. P R T B R E N T I N D E X — Q U A R T E R 3 , 2 0 1 5
Base 2007=100
Source: PRTB (2015)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
'07,
Q3
'07,
Q4
'08,
Q1
'08,
Q2
'08,
Q3
'08,
Q4
'09,
Q1
'09,
Q2
'09,
Q3
'09,
Q4
'10,
Q1
'10,
Q2
'10,
Q3
'10,
Q4
'11,
Q1
'11,
Q2
'11,
Q3
'11,
Q4
'12,
Q1
'12,
Q2
'12,
Q3
'12,
Q4
'13,
Q1
'13,
Q2
'13,
Q3
'13,
Q4
'14,
Q1
'14,
Q2
'14,
Q3
'14,
Q4
'15,
Q1
'15,
Q2
'15,
Q3
Apartment (Dublin) House (Dublin)
Apartment (ex Dublin) House (ex Dublin)

5. A V E R A G E W E E K LY W A G E S
Seasonally adjusted and accounting for CPI inflation—Base 2008, Q1=100
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2008, Q1
2008, Q2
2008, Q3
2008, Q4
2009, Q1
2009, Q2
2009, Q3
2009, Q4
2010, Q1
2010, Q2
2010, Q3
2010, Q4
2011, Q1
2011, Q2
2011, Q3
2011, Q4
2012, Q1
2012, Q2
2012, Q3
2012, Q4
2013, Q1
2013, Q2
2013, Q3
2013, Q4
2014, Q1
2014, Q2
2014, Q3
2014, Q4
2015, Q1
2015, Q2
2015, Q3
Source: CSO, EHQ03 (2015)

6. E M P L O Y M E N T
Seasonally Adjusted (‘000s)
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
'07,Q1
'07,Q2
'07,Q3
'07,Q4
'08,Q1
'08,Q2
'08,Q3
'08,Q4
'09,Q1
'09,Q2
'09,Q3
'09,Q4
'10,Q1
'10,Q2
'10,Q3
'10,Q4
'11,Q1
'11,Q2
'11,Q3
'11,Q4
'12,Q1
'12,Q2
'12,Q3
'12,Q4
'13,Q1
'13,Q2
'13,Q3
'13,Q4
'14,Q1
'14,Q2
'14,Q3
'14,Q4
'15,Q1
'15,Q2
'15,Q3
'000s
Source: CSO, QNQ03 (2015)

7. E M P L O Y M E N T R AT E : P E R C E N TA G E P O I N T C H A N G E
2007, Q3 — 2015, Q3
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64
%
Source: CSO, QNQ24 (2015)

8. I L O U N E M P L O Y M E N T R AT E
15 – 74 years of age
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
'98,Q1
'98,Q3
'99,Q1
'99,Q3
'00,Q1
'00,Q3
'01,Q1
'01,Q3
'02,Q1
'02,Q3
'03,Q1
'03,Q3
'04,Q1
'04,Q3
'05,Q1
'05,Q3
'06,Q1
'06,Q3
'07,Q1
'07,Q3
'08,Q1
'08,Q3
'09,Q1
'09,Q3
'10,Q1
'10,Q3
'11,Q1
'11,Q3
'12,Q1
'12,Q3
'13,Q1
'13,Q3
'14,Q1
'14,Q3
'15,Q1
'15,Q3
%
Source: CSO, QNQ22

9. U N E M P L O Y M E N T B Y R E G I O N
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Border
Mid-West
South-East
West
Dublin
Mid-East
South-West
Midland
Midland
South-East
West
Mid-West
Border
South-West
Mid-East
Dublin
'07, Q3 '15, Q3
%
Source: CSO, QNQ22 (2015)

10. P A R T I C I PAT I O N R AT E : P E R C E N TA G E P O I N T C H A N G E
2007, Q3 — 2015, Q3
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Dublin Mid-West South-East Midland West State South-West Border Mid-East
ppchangeinparticipationrate
Source: CSO, QNQ22 (2015)

11. I R I S H H O U S E C O M P L E T I O N S , AV E R A G E P R I C E S A N D
C O M PA R I S O N S W I T H I N C O M E / E A R N I N G S 1
Year
No. of dwellings
completed
Average house prices (€)
Relative to gross
household income
Relative to gross
average earnings
1995 30,575 77,994 3.43 -
2000 49,812 169,191 4.87 -
2001 52,602 182,863 - -
2002 57,695 198,087 - -
2003 68,819 224,567 4.96 -
2004 76,954 249,191 5.05 -
2005 80,957 276,221 5.41 -
2006 93,419 305,637 5.55 -
2007 78,027 322,634 5.39 -
2008 51,724 305,269 5.04 8.30
2009 26,420 242,033 4.28 6.57
2010 14,602 228,268 4.22 6.32
2011 10,480 230,303 4.35 6.41
2012 8,488 220,415 - 6.11
2013 8,301 234,301 - -

12. FI N A N C I N G IN V E S T M E N T

13. P R O J E C T E D P U B L I C S P E N D I N G P E R C A P I TA
Excluding interest on public debt
12,800
13,000
13,200
13,400
13,600
13,800
14,000
14,200
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
€
Source: Calculations based on figures from
the Dept of Finance & CSO (2015)

14. P U B L I C / P R I VAT E I N V E S T M E N T
Current prices in € billions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
€billions
General Government
Private Sector
Source: European Commission, AMECO
database (2015)

15. P U B L I C C A P I TA L E X P E N D I T U R E O N H O U S I N G
Local authority and all other constituents—nominal amounts in €'000,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Others Local Authority Housing
Source: Department of Environment, Community
and Local Government (2015)

16. D E L I V E R Y O F N E W H O U S I N G U N I T S : 1 9 7 3 - 2 0 1 3
Average public/private Split over successive five-year periods
Source: CSO, HSA01 (2014)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
'74-'78 '79-'83 '84-88 '89-'93 '94-'98 '99-'03 '04-'08 '09-'13
94%79%78%72% 92% 92% 87%90%
Private Houses
Local authority & non profits**

17. F I N A N C I N G S O C I A L H O U S I N G
Common mechanisms outside the tax system2
Source: European Social Housing Observatory (2013)
County/Support Preferable loans
Discount
on land
Grants Loan guarantee
Interest
subsidy
Extensive personal
allowances/benefits
Netherlands
-
X
-
X
-
X
Austria X
- - - - -
England
-
X X
- -
X
Germany X X X
- -
X
France X X X
-
X X
Finland
-
X X X X X

18. F I N A N C I N G S O C I A L H O U S I N G
Common mechanisms directly using the tax system2
Source: European Social Housing Observatory (2013)
County/Support DIRT & CGT VAT Property/Site Aggregator Levies
Netherlands - - - X X
Austria X X X - X
England - X X X -
France X X X X -
Finland - X - X -

19. D E L I V E R Y O F N E W H O U S I N G U N I T S : 1 9 7 3 - 2 0 1 3
Average public/private Split over successive five-year periods
Source: Source: CSO, HSA01 (2014)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2013

20. LA N D & FU T U R E
HO U S I N G RE Q U I R E M E N T S

21. S U P P LY O F H O U S I N G L A N D
Zoned land availability
0
150,000
300,000
450,000
600,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Department of Environment, Community
and Local Government (2015)

22. R E S I D E N T I A L L A N D A VA I L A B I L I T Y
Region/Availability Potential Dwellings (Area 1) Potential Dwellings (Area 2)
South West 45,611 35,746
Mid-West 66,328 36,435
South-East 77,930 58,559
Mid-East 97,089 94,349
Midlands 44,454 29,738
West 54,604 23,820
Dublin 123,451 116,705
Border 101,835 19,360
Source: Department of Environment, Community
and Local Government (2015)

23. S U P P LY O F L A N D , P L A N N I N G P E R M I S S I O N & D E M A N D
Source: Society of Chartered Surveyors (2014)
County Council
Zoned for residential
development
Minimum housing
requirement
Granted planning
permission
Minimum Housing
Units Required
2014-2018
Dublin City 313 13,751 2,444 13,751
Fingal 1,065 9,617 15,583 9,617
Dun Laogroire 302 3,299 6,070 3,299
South Dublin 553 8,766 2,483 8,766