Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
NZRA Presentation
The World is Changing
29th July 2014
The World is Changing….
‘World is changing, you can feel it in the water, you
can feel it in the air’ is a classic line fr...
Demographic and Fiscal
Constraints
Some Challenges Coming Up
Central Government:
Efficiency, Effectiveness and
Value for Money
: Expenditure Priority Tensions (Projections from Treasu...
Council Debt reaching limits
Average Debt per Ratepayer
Group 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Metro Group 5,172 6,507 7,407 8,477...
New Zealand Population, Demographics
Source: National Infrastructure Plan
Date: 2011
Rural to Urban Changes / Challenges
“Zombie Towns”
Any Growth – 65+ pop. (N. Jackson)
Different services – less than 5,000...
Road Funding, Utilities Peak 2030-50
Utilities replacement peak 2030-2050
Real reduction in road funding outside
Auckland-...
Future Implications
Many Challenges, Many Changes
Timaru Zones of the Future
Source: Waugh Infrastructure Management
Date: March 2013
Medium Density Units not Villas
Source: Waugh Infrastructure Management
Date: March 2013
New Development Layouts?
Multiple Units per site
Central common green
Rear narrow service
lanes
Garaging / Storage
Less ca...
Jatkasaari, Helsinki – Urban Life by the
Open Sea
Construction 2009-2025, 100ha, 19.8ha parks
16,000 residents, 6,000 jobs...
Urban Spaces, Helsinki
Urban Spaces, Copenhagen
Example of Issues, Detroit
Detroit – Decades of Decline, Bankruptcy
Demand Forecasting
Rapidly
Declining
Cities
Rapid
changes in
demand
Cleveland, OH
#1
Detroit, MI #2,
2014
Detroit, The Mower Gang
Mower Gang Video
Detroit (1 year later) - Hope
Seek the involvement from non-
government actors – civic, business and
philanthropic
Be awar...
NZ Example – CBay, Timaru
Good example - $23M, $7M Community
raised, $16M Council
More Demand for Parks/Property Services
Changing urban forms – different assets
More demand for recreational assets
More u...
The Future
Affordability
Sustainability
Network effects
Liveability
Resources
Prof Natalie Jackson – demographics
Fairfax – Council Debt
Treasury – Fiscal Projections
OAG, DIA - Sector finan...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Asset Management Planning - The World is Changing - Ross Waugh

566 views

Published on

‘World is changing, you can feel it in the water, you can feel it in the air’ is a classic line from the Lord of the Rings movies.
The world of Parks and Community Infrastructure asset management is also changing with the impact of a number of strategic trends starting to be ‘felt’ by the sector.
Macro changes in New Zealand population distribution, demographics, urban form, and fiscal constraint will all impact on Parks and Community Infrastructure.

Ross’s presentation will summarise these major changes, and examine some of the potential impacts on Parks and Community Infrastructure.

The ‘shrinking town’ impacts on Detroit, USA will be reviewed, along with community lead initiatives that have followed. The potential issues with community lead initiatives will be discussed.

The presentation will conclude with observations regarding how to start positioning Parks and Community Infrastructure asset management to meet the challenges presented by these change trends.

Published in: Engineering
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Asset Management Planning - The World is Changing - Ross Waugh

  1. 1. NZRA Presentation The World is Changing 29th July 2014
  2. 2. The World is Changing…. ‘World is changing, you can feel it in the water, you can feel it in the air’ is a classic line from the Lord of the Rings movies
  3. 3. Demographic and Fiscal Constraints Some Challenges Coming Up
  4. 4. Central Government: Efficiency, Effectiveness and Value for Money : Expenditure Priority Tensions (Projections from Treasury Historic Trends Approach) Expenditure Area 2011 - %GDP 2030 - %GDP 2050 - %GDP Debt Projections 21.8% 79.5% 223% Debt Servicing 1.6% 4.8% 12.7% Superannuation 4.7% 6.7% 8% Education 6.4% 5.5% 5.4% Health 7.6% 8.5% 10.7% Total S+E+H 18.7% 20.7% 24.1% Difference 2010 +5% +10% Infrastructure (approx.) 7% ? 5% ? 3.5% Information Source: NZ Long Term Fiscal Statement, Oct 2009, Treasury
  5. 5. Council Debt reaching limits Average Debt per Ratepayer Group 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Metro Group 5,172 6,507 7,407 8,477 9,273 City Group 3,976 1,413 4,605 4,758 5,173 Prov/Rural Group 2,338 2,772 3,174 3,430 3,811 Rural Group 1,873 2,124 2,136 2,430 2,475 Total of all Groups 2,642 3,055 3,391 3,706 4,026 Total of all Groups (including Auckland) 2,681 3,112 3,441 3,834 4,176 2002 $1500 acceptable debt, $3000 max Inflation adjust $2000 acceptable, $3900 max Current Average Debt $4000 but interest rates are lower – for now. Metro/City higher debt Councils fund – rates, debt, development contributions. Pressure on all 3 Source: Larry Mitchell Local Government League Table Date: March 2013
  6. 6. New Zealand Population, Demographics Source: National Infrastructure Plan Date: 2011
  7. 7. Rural to Urban Changes / Challenges “Zombie Towns” Any Growth – 65+ pop. (N. Jackson) Different services – less than 5,000 pop? 50,000 workers needed in rural areas (Federated Farmers June 2014) Who is going to do the work? Integration of immigrants into rural / provincial NZ Number Towns Population (2006 Census) 6 90,000 and above 68 10,000 – 90,000 38 5,000 – 10,000 551 Less than 5,000
  8. 8. Road Funding, Utilities Peak 2030-50 Utilities replacement peak 2030-2050 Real reduction in road funding outside Auckland-Hamilton-Tauranga Real long term pressure on community asset funding, particularly smaller towns
  9. 9. Future Implications Many Challenges, Many Changes
  10. 10. Timaru Zones of the Future Source: Waugh Infrastructure Management Date: March 2013
  11. 11. Medium Density Units not Villas Source: Waugh Infrastructure Management Date: March 2013
  12. 12. New Development Layouts? Multiple Units per site Central common green Rear narrow service lanes Garaging / Storage Less cars, smaller cars More scooters More bicycles, cycle lane Wider footpath Traffic calming, narrower carriageway More public transport 2nd tier rental for market ServiceLane ServiceLane Extra wide Footpath/Cycle Lane Garages Units Units A A A A A A A A A A A A A A Source: Waugh Infrastructure Management Date: March 2013
  13. 13. Jatkasaari, Helsinki – Urban Life by the Open Sea Construction 2009-2025, 100ha, 19.8ha parks 16,000 residents, 6,000 jobs, 1.5km from city centre Waste - Automated Vacuum Collection
  14. 14. Urban Spaces, Helsinki
  15. 15. Urban Spaces, Copenhagen
  16. 16. Example of Issues, Detroit
  17. 17. Detroit – Decades of Decline, Bankruptcy
  18. 18. Demand Forecasting Rapidly Declining Cities Rapid changes in demand Cleveland, OH #1 Detroit, MI #2, 2014
  19. 19. Detroit, The Mower Gang Mower Gang Video
  20. 20. Detroit (1 year later) - Hope Seek the involvement from non- government actors – civic, business and philanthropic Be aware of the power of network effects in building a consensus (and releasing / mobilising) for action, investment, and change. City - fixing the basics City - alternatives for funding
  21. 21. NZ Example – CBay, Timaru Good example - $23M, $7M Community raised, $16M Council
  22. 22. More Demand for Parks/Property Services Changing urban forms – different assets More demand for recreational assets More use of volunteers How to fund in a constrained environment?
  23. 23. The Future Affordability Sustainability Network effects Liveability
  24. 24. Resources Prof Natalie Jackson – demographics Fairfax – Council Debt Treasury – Fiscal Projections OAG, DIA - Sector financial comparisons www.waughinfrastructure.com www.inframanage.com

×