Display backplanes fabricated with silicon TFTs are the industry standard for displays of all kinds. However, in the past decade various attempts have been made to move beyond silicon either on cost or performance grounds. A decade ago, the big promise seemed to come from organic transistors, but their promise has faded as their electron mobilities have proven to be woefully inadequate. This report analyzes the market for the next wave of non-silicon TFTs to be pitched towards backplane and other applications. This wave uses metallic oxides and TFTs made from these materials promise electron mobilities of more or less the same level as amorphous silicon, but with lower costs. Interest in these materials is at a high point with some of the biggest names in displays – Sony, Sharp, Samsung, LG and Toshiba – making serious efforts to commercialize TFTs. This report also examines the potential of these developments for new business revenues for materials firms that produce complex metallic oxide semiconductors. Until very recently, the addressable markets for such materials have been entirely in the R&D space. This report examines the key markets for oxide TFTs in the LCD, OLED and e-paper space. In addition, it also takes look at their role in other more speculative markets such as flexible displays, transparent electronics, sensors, RFID and even power electronics. This report also presents an analysis and roadmap for the development of oxide OTFT technology both in terms of materials and manufacturing technology. In terms of the former, it takes a look at the difference that the arrival of p-type oxide semiconductors may have on the commercialization of oxide TFT technology. In addition, this report analyzes the market strategies for companies developing this technology and also includes an eight-year forecast made by application and material type.

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Metal Oxide Thin-Film
Transistor Markets
Nano-527
Published April 2012
© NanoMarkets, LC
NanoMarkets, LC
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Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based
on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment.
The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies
and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms.
Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1
E.1 Summary of Opportunities for Products Utilizing Metal Oxide TFTs ............................... 1 Page | i
E.1.1 Display Opportunities ..................................................................................................................................2
E.1.2 Other Opportunities ....................................................................................................................................2
E.1.3 Opportunities for Materials Firms ...............................................................................................................3
E.2 Firms to Watch in this Space ......................................................................................... 3
E.3 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Metal Oxide TFT Products .................................... 4
E.4 Concluding Remarks ..................................................................................................... 8
Chapter One: Introduction ..................................................................................................... 9
1.1 Background to this Report ............................................................................................ 9
1.1.1 The Silicon Landscape ................................................................................................................................11
1.1.2 Metal Oxide TFTs and How They Fit In ......................................................................................................12
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report ............................................................................ 15
1.3 Methodology of this Report ........................................................................................ 16
1.4 Plan of this Report ...................................................................................................... 16
Chapter Two: Oxide TFT Technology: Assessment and Roadmap .......................................... 17
2.1 Zinc Oxide-Based Materials ........................................................................................ 17
2.1.1 Indium Gallium Zinc Oxide (IGZO) ..............................................................................................................17
2.1.2 Indium Zinc Oxide (IZO) .............................................................................................................................18
2.1.3 Zinc Tin Oxide (ZTO) ...................................................................................................................................19
2.1.4 Hafnium Indium Zinc Oxide (HIZO) ............................................................................................................20
2.1.5 Aluminum Doped Zinc Oxide (AZO) ...........................................................................................................21
2.2 Potential for p-Type Oxide Semiconductors ................................................................ 21
2.3 Assessment of Oxide Development Programs at Leading Firms ................................... 22
2.3.1 AUO ............................................................................................................................................................23
2.3.2 CBRITE ........................................................................................................................................................24
2.3.3 HP ...............................................................................................................................................................25
2.3.4 LG Display ..................................................................................................................................................25
2.3.5 Samsung Electronics ..................................................................................................................................26
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2.3.6 Sharp ..........................................................................................................................................................27
2.3.7 Sony ...........................................................................................................................................................28
2.3.8 Toppan Printing Co. ...................................................................................................................................28
2.3.9 Toshiba.......................................................................................................................................................29
2.4 Assessment of Materials Suppliers for Metal Oxide Backplanes .................................. 29 Page | ii
2.4.1 Advanced Nano Products (ANP) ................................................................................................................29
2.4.2 JX Nippon Mining & Metals .......................................................................................................................29
2.4.3 Ulvac Materials ..........................................................................................................................................29
2.5 Evolution of Fabrication Technology for TFTs .............................................................. 30
2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 31
Chapter Three: Market Requirements and Opportunities for Oxide TFTs .............................. 33
3.1 What is the Future Role of Oxide TFTs in the LCD Market? .......................................... 33
3.1.1 The Competitive Environment and Importance of Device Types for TFTs in LCDs ...................................33
3.1.2 The Current State of the LCD Market ........................................................................................................36
3.2 Oxide TFTs and OLEDs ................................................................................................ 37
3.2.1 Mobile Displays ..........................................................................................................................................38
3.2.2 OLED TVs (Large-Area Applications) ..........................................................................................................42
3.3 E-Paper ...................................................................................................................... 45
3.4 Potential Future Markets for Oxide TFTs ..................................................................... 46
3.4.1 Flexible Displays .........................................................................................................................................46
3.4.2 Transparent Electronics .............................................................................................................................47
3.4.3 Sensors and RFID .......................................................................................................................................47
3.4.4 Memory .....................................................................................................................................................48
3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 48
Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for Oxide TFTs................................................................ 50
4.1 Forecasting Methodology ........................................................................................... 50
4.2 Forecasts by Application ............................................................................................. 52
4.2.1 LCD (and AMOLED) Tablet Displays ...........................................................................................................53
4.2.2 Flat-Panel TV Displays ................................................................................................................................56
4.2.3 Smartphone Displays .................................................................................................................................60
4.2.4 Personal Computer Displays ......................................................................................................................64
4.3 Forecast by Oxide Type............................................................................................... 68
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4.4 Summary Forecast ...................................................................................................... 72
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report ............................................................. 75
About the Author ............................................................................................................. 75
Page | iii
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Firms to Watch in the Metal Oxide TFT Space ............................................................................................4
Exhibit E-2: Summary of Revenue for Metal Oxide TFT Backplanes ..............................................................................6
Exhibit E-3: Summary of Shipments of Metal Oxide Area Shipped ...............................................................................7
Exhibit 4-1: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD Tablet Market Segment .............................................................................53
Exhibit 4-2: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED Tablet Market Segment .....................................................................55
Exhibit 4-3: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD TV Market Segment ...................................................................................57
Exhibit 4-4: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED TV Market Segment ...........................................................................59
Exhibit 4-5: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD Smartphone Market Segment ....................................................................61
Exhibit 4-6: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED Smartphone Market Segment............................................................63
Exhibit 4-7: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD Personal Computer Market Segment.........................................................65
Exhibit 4-8: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED Personal Computer Market Segment ................................................67
Exhibit 4-9: Oxide Backplanes: Market Summary by Type ..........................................................................................69
Exhibit 4-10: Summary of Revenue for Metal Oxide TFT Backplanes ..........................................................................72
Exhibit 4-11: Summary of Shipments of Metal Oxide Area Shipped ...........................................................................73
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Executive Summary
E.1 Summary of Opportunities for Products Utilizing Metal Oxide TFTs
The flat-panel display has become ubiquitous in consumer electronics products, and is a very Page | 1
important part of the user experience in most applications. Continually improving the
performance of these displays has become a competitive driving force that brings new
technology to the market. Metal oxide thin-film transistor backplanes are in a position to offer
performance improvements to the display industry at a reasonable cost, and hence are in a
position to take advantage of a genuine market opportunity.
Amorphous silicon (a-silicon) is the current industry standard with regard to backplane
technology in the display industry, but it is performance-limited from a materials point of view.
Higher resolution, higher display refresh rates and lower power consumption are just some of
the important directions that the flat-panel display industry is going in, and a-silicon will not be
able to meet the industry needs in these areas.
Metal oxide backplanes, however, offer all of those benefits to the flat-panel display industry,
and do it at a reasonable cost, and with scalable manufacturing processes. Hence, they are
ideally poised to take the display industry in to the future.
The rapid growth of handheld device markets like smartphones and tablets has spurred the
development of high mobility backplanes, as manufacturers for these mobile applications
attempt to provide their users with the best possible visual experience.
Additionally, the fact that the flat-panel TV industry is always looking for ways to improve its
visual experience has provided amorphous oxide backplanes with opportunities in high growth
and high volume markets.
The market forces that are the most important in positively impacting the adoption of metal
oxide backplanes in the market include the following:
• a-Silicon has reached the limits of its potential as a backplane material from a materials
point of view. Hence, display manufacturers see the need for alternative high mobility
backplane materials.
• Unlike its direct competitor—low temperature poly-silicon (LTPS)—the metal oxide
backplane provides significant performance improvements at a reasonable cost.
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Additionally, it is manufactured using a process that is scalable and requires significantly
lower capital expenditure from an equipment point of view.
• The recent push for active-matrix organic LED (AMOLED)-based flat-panel displays in
various segments of the consumer electronics market (smartphones, TVs, tablets) has Page | 2
spurred the development of high mobility backplane materials, because OLEDs cannot
be driven by a-silicon, due to its limited electrical characteristics.
E.1.1 Display Opportunities
The display opportunities that present themselves can be broken up into two main branches:
LCD and AMOLED. Within these two branches, the market is easily further segmented into
applications based on display: small (smartphones), medium (tablets), and large (TVs and
personal computers).
From a competitive point of view, metal oxide backplanes offer improved performance at a
reasonable cost, and with the potential for large-area manufacturing. It is the cost and
manufacturing advantage over LTPS that provide an insight into the market segments that will
be the most important to metal oxide backplanes going forward.
The tablet market segment is a fast growing segment that places a high priority on display
performance. High mobility backplanes have the potential to make a strong impact in this
market, and it is here that metal oxides are expected to see significant market penetration over
the course of this forecast period due to the value propositions that they provide.
The competitive advantage that metal oxide backplanes have over LTPS with regard to large
area displays is due to the scalable manufacturing process involved in producing them. This
scalability makes them the ideal high mobility backplane for the flat-panel TV market, and
indeed, their development has been pioneered by companies like Sharp, LG Display and
Samsung.
Metal oxide backplanes have a very real revenue opportunity in both LCD and AMOLED TV
displays. AMOLED TVs that are expected to enter the market in earnest over the course of this
forecast period require a high mobility backplane material that can be manufactured in a cost
efficient manner. Metal oxide backplanes are ideally suited to meet these requirements.
E.1.2 Other Opportunities
Metal oxide materials are transparent semiconductor materials with high mobility, and these
characteristics allow them to be used in both the integrated circuit that drives the backplane, as
well as the backplane transistor itself. Additionally, metal oxide materials can potentially be
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manufactured using solution-based, roll-to roll-printing methods. This combination of benefits
will potentially open up new revenue opportunities for metal oxide backplane materials.
• Roll-to-roll manufacturing methods enable the use of metal oxide materials in flexible
electronics. The low temperature manufacturing process allows these materials to be Page | 3
deposited on flexible substrates.
• The high mobility and transparent nature of metal oxide semiconductors opens up the
transparent electronics market segment. The potential to be used in transparent logic
circuits could lead to the development of a suite of new devices, and metal oxide
materials can provide the characteristics necessary to make it happen.
• Solution-processed metal oxide manufacturing would be lower cost than the deposition
of metal oxide materials. This cost advantage could enable their use in the inexpensive
manufacture of intelligent sensors and RFID tags.
E.1.3 Opportunities for Materials Firms
The recent interest in metal oxide TFT backplanes has spurred the market for companies that
can supply amorphous metal oxide materials. Because the metal oxide production process is a
deposition process, there will be a high demand for high quality metal oxide sputtering targets
that can be used in the latest generation sputtering systems.
The firms to keep an eye on in this space currently are Advanced Nano Products, JX Nippon
Mining & Metals and Ulvac Materials, although more companies are expected to enter the
space due to the recent increase in demand for metal oxide materials.
The focus of the industry is on indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO) from the commercial point of
view, and companies manufacturing sputtering targets for IGZO are expected to become much
more prevalent over the course of this forecast period.
E.2 Firms to Watch in this Space
There are multiple firms that have undertaken the development of production lines to
accommodate metal oxide backplane technology. These are primarily the large players in the
flat-panel display industry, and the fact that these companies are behind the production of
metal oxide backplanes is a sign of the potential of this technology.
The firms to watch in this space are summarized in Exhibit E-1.
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Exhibit E-1: Firms to Watch in the Metal Oxide TFT Space
Company Metal Oxide TFT Production Activity
AUO AUO has the potential to begin volume production of oxide TFTs by 2013. This
technology will play a big role in AUO's recent entry into the AMOLED market
with a suite of products.
CBRITE CBRITE is pioneering non-IGZO-based oxide TFT backplanes. Since CBRITE is a Page | 4
small, early stage company, the timeline for its product to reach the market is
dependent on its ability to form strategic partnerships that can
commercialize its technology.
LG Display LG is likely to see revenues from products with metal oxide backplanes as
early as late 2012 or early 2013. It is expected to get large area AMOLED-based
TVs into the market, and metal oxide backplanes are an important strategic
move in this direction.
Samsung Samsung has shown interest in metal oxide technology, as evidenced by
prototype products. It is expected to come to the market with metal oxide
backplanes toward the end of 2013.
Sharp Sharp has pioneered the commercialization of IGZO, and is the most
committed to getting IGZO backplanes into its display products. It is
expected to convert a state-of-the-art fab to manufacture IGZO backplanes,
and is rumored to have a strategic partnership with Apple to manufacture
IGZO-based displays for Apple's iPad.
© NanoMarkets 2012
E.3 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Metal Oxide TFT Products
Exhibit E-2 summarizes the eight-year forecasts for metal oxide backplanes in the flat-panel
display industry. NanoMarkets expects this market to be valued at $3.8 billion by the end of the
forecast period.
The predicted market growth is driven by the need of the flat-panel display industry for high
mobility backplanes. Backplanes capable of enabling higher resolution, lower power
consumption and higher driving currents (specifically for AMOLEDs), all at a reasonable cost, are
what the industry requires at present, and metal oxide backplanes are poised to provide this
capability.
However, metal oxide backplanes will directly compete with LTPS as a high mobility backplane
material. These two technologies will be competing in the marketplace along the following
dimensions:
• Electrical characteristics and performance—LTPS has the upper hand in this regard with
higher mobility figures, although there are questions about the stability of the film in
larger areas.
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• Ease of production—The scalability of the LTPS production processes is severely limited
when compared to the production of metal oxide backplanes.
• Cost of production—The laser annealing process used in LTPS production is significantly
more costly than the sputtering process used to deposit oxide backplanes. Additionally, Page | 5
the capital expenditure required for the production equipment needed for LTPS
manufacturing is significantly higher than that required for metal oxide backplanes.
LTPS is dominant in the smartphone market segment, having been in the market for longer.
Metal oxide backplanes are better-suited for the large area display market segments, and the
cost-effective production process is expected to make them strongly competitive in the
smartphone and small-area segment as well.
Therefore, the smartphone and TV markets are expected to be significant revenue generators
for metal oxide backplanes in the early portion of the forecast period, with the tablet market
segment showing the best potential for rapid growth.
Metal oxide TFTs will also see significant penetration in the AMOLED market over the course of
this forecast period, specifically in the medium and large display area sectors. However, the unit
sales of AMOLED displays in the tablet, personal computer and TV space are tempered by the
fact that the AMOLED display is itself an emerging technology in these market segments.
The LCD market will see much lower penetration numbers than the AMOLED market, but the
size of the market means that this penetration still translates to significant revenues. The
penetration of oxide backplanes in the LCD market is expected to occur at a steady rate, with
oxide backplanes seeing significant market share towards the end of the forecast period. a-
Silicon is entrenched as a backplane technology, and as such there is significant inertia against
replacing it, and so new technology is not expected to penetrate extremely rapidly.
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Total Oxide Material Shipped
45
40
35
Page | 8
Millions Sq. M
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
© NanoMarkets, LC
E.4 Concluding Remarks
NanoMarkets believes that high mobility backplanes have a very important role to play in the
display industry. Metal oxide backplanes will be competing with LTPS in this space, while
attempting to replace a-silicon as the industry standard backplane material. Metal oxide
materials compete primarily on the ease and relative cost effectiveness of their manufacturing
process while providing significant improvements over a-silicon.
Amorphous metal oxide backplanes will become a strong commercial technology over the
course of this forecast period, and the reasons for this have been explored in this report. The
oxide TFT is a technology that offers value propositions that satisfy the needs of the display
industry across various market segments, and is a very real commercial opportunity going
forward.
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Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
Metal oxide thin-film transistors (TFTs) are poised to capture a very real revenue opportunity in
Page | 9
the display industry. Amorphous metal oxide materials have the potential to be used in the
backplane of flat-panel displays as an alternative to amorphous silicon (a-silicon), which is
currently the industry standard. a-Silicon is limited in its performance as a backplane material,
and its newer, high-performance alternative, low temperature polysilicon (LTPS) is extremely
expensive to produce. Metal oxide materials offer better performance than a-silicon, and are
cheaper to manufacture than LTPS, which is in good alignment with the needs of the display
industry going forward.
The importance of addressing each picture element (each unit of which is called a pixel) in a
flat-panel display containing well over a million pixels is a task that is accomplished by either a
passive or active matrix in the backplane of the display. This act of addressing is what renders
the image on the screen from the electronic input. LCD technology has dominated the market
in the recent past in high-resolution, fast-refreshing large display applications such as laptops
and TVs. The addressing of pixels in LCDs has typically been achieved using what is known as an
"active matrix" of thin-film transistors fabricated, most commonly, out of amorphous silicon.
It has, however, been known for some time now that a-silicon isn't the ideal material for thin
film transistor backplanes. Even so, they have met the requirements of the display industry that
is currently dominated by LCD technology. But LCD display makers have come to the realization
that a-silicon is really a stagnant technology. It has reached the upper limits of process and
morphological improvement that engineering of the production processes can provide, and is
now really limited by the properties of a-silicon itself.
Displays for the next decade are either going to be LCD-based or organic light emitting diode
(OLED)-based for the most part. Next-generation LCD displays are not going to have their
performance needs satisfied by a-silicon; it quite simply doesn't have the potential to meet the
improved resolution requirements, higher refresh rates, and lower power goals of next-
generation LCD displays. It is also incapable of satisfying the requirements of large-area OLED
displays.
It will eventually come to the point where a-silicon will potentially become a limiting factor with
regard to improving the performance of next-generation displays unless a novel backplane
material is introduced. NanoMarkets believes that there is room for a technological
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improvement at a fundamental level. Hence, there is a very real revenue opportunity for
companies seeking to bring newer backplane technologies to the market.
Amorphous transparent metal oxide based TFTs have the requisite materials properties to
satisfy the needs of next-generation displays, as will be evidenced later in this report. It's very Page | 10
realistic that metal oxide TFTs will, in fact, be a suitable replacement for a-silicon. There are
some obstacles that need to be overcome with regard to device stability in large area and large
volume production, but the development of these materials is being backed in a large way by
multiple companies.
The display industry is rapidly expanding with regard to the number of consumer electronics
devices on the market. The tablet and smartphone segments have added a new dimension to
the market, allowing OLED displays to make an entrance in smaller area applications (they have,
until very recently, been found unsuitable for large-area displays). There are also flexible
displays in the works at a few companies, as well as electrophoretic ink-based displays that
have been present in the market for some time now.
This suite of commercialized devices allows for a targeted segmentation approach by a new
technology entering the market. Certain companies are pioneering metal oxide TFTs for large-
area LCD and OLED display applications, while others are planning on targeting the tablet
display market. Strategies behind these decisions revolve around production capability, the
substrate area capable of being handled by the manufacturing facilities, and where companies
believe they can see the highest revenue opportunity for their amorphous oxide backplanes.
Segmentation in a relatively mature market is essential in meeting customer demands and
positioning the product so as to maximize revenue. New, high growth segments (smartphones,
tablets, notebooks) in the consumer electronics device market have led to a large increase in
the potential revenue to be captured by display makers. With these high-growth segments,
however, comes increased consumer expectations from the point of view of visual quality and
performance in displays, and the need to meet these expectations is why bringing new
technology to the market is crucial.
NanoMarkets believes that the industry is on the brink of an overhaul with regard to its
backplane technology. It is not really a question of if a-silicon will be replaced, but rather, when.
At its present stage of development, amorphous metal oxide backplane technology, with the
properties it displays from a performance point of view, is the most realistic replacement.
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1.1.1 The Silicon Landscape
a-Silicon has, for a long time, been the material of choice for use in the transistors for display
backplanes. There are various reasons why, but it is also readily apparent that there is room for
improvement, and changes in the morphology of silicon itself have led to performance
improvements that could prove to usurp a-silicon. The base material is still silicon however, and Page | 11
it appears that silicon has really made itself indivisible from the backplane transistor. a-Silicon
provides adequate performance for large-scale display applications in terms of its electronic
performance. The key word in the above sentence is adequate, but it definitely has limitations:
• The mobility of amorphous silicon is a few orders of magnitude less than that of
crystalline silicon, yet it has managed to become the material of choice for the active
matrix of thin-film transistors in displays.
• The low mobility of a-silicon, a fundamental materials property, is coupled with a loss of
real estate on the backplane, because the size of each transistor is forced to be
relatively large, leading to a larger pixel, and hence lower screen resolution.
• a-Silicon requires an external driver circuit to manipulate the transistors at each pixel,
and this driving circuit can't be made out of a-silicon due to its low mobility. The
external circuit is an added production step, and is a potential target for cost savings if it
can be incorporated into the TFT active matrix fabrication process.
a-Silicon is still favored because of its low temperature, relatively inexpensive production
process compared to better-performing materials. Additionally, the production process allows
for relatively simple scalability to large areas, which has led to the general adoption of a-silicon
in large-area electronics applications.
An important question is whether a-silicon has the potential to continue its dominance in these
applications. It beats competitors on cost, but one wonders when the value of added
performance will prove itself worth the additional cost for switching materials. Development
efforts have been specifically targeted at low temperature poly-silicon (LTPS) as a thin-film
transistor material for displays. Its benefits include:
• A significantly higher mobility than a-silicon;
• Smaller grain sizes, leading to smaller transistors, smaller pixels and higher resolution;
• The ability to integrate driver circuits onto the glass substrate, significantly reducing the
number of connections on the substrate and improving durability; and
• Lower power consumption than a-silicon.
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LTPS does have certain problems, though. It is usually manufactured by a process that depends
on laser annealing, which is an expensive fabrication method with questionable scalability
compared to the relatively standard lithographic manufacturing of a-silicon. This issue is a
strong inhibitor to the adoption of poly-silicon in large area display applications, and so far this
technology has made limited inroads, and mostly in devices with small displays. Page | 12
Small display applications have grown strongly as a revenue stream with the advent of smart
phones and tablets. And this market segment has actually made it possible for higher-
performing materials like poly-silicon to see applicability in the market. At the very least, small
area displays provide an avenue for market entry while development efforts continue to
address the scalability of the production process for large-area displays.
The recent advances in OLED displays have also spurred the development of LTPS for display
applications. LTPS has the potential to really push the large scale adoption of OLED devices, the
highest volumes of which are used in small area displays.
The competitive landscape between OLED and LCD displays over the forecast period could lead
to interesting backlashes in the backplane sector as well. Currently, OLEDs have not been able
to penetrate the large-area display market, primarily due to high production costs. However,
organic displays are experiencing extremely rapid increases in adoption in the smartphone
market. The emerging adoption of LTPS in response to superior performance demands in the
small area display segment could lead to the displacement of a-silicon as the dominant force in
smaller device backplanes.
LCDs currently dominate the large-area display market, and a-silicon is the industry standard
backplane technology in this segment. It is cheap and its performance meets the device
requirements, but how long will this last?
Going one step further than that, in an application entirely dominated by variations on silicon
thin films, is there room for revolutionary material substitutes to squeeze out a position in the
short term, and perhaps expand it to a reasonable market share in the long run?
This report aims to shed some light on the answer to that question, specifically with regard to
the potential of thin film metal oxides in this market.
1.1.2 Metal Oxide TFTs and How They Fit In
The fact is that metal oxide thin-film transistors have the very real potential to be a disruptive
technology in this market. This potential stems from the fact that they, in a sense, combine the
best of both the a-silicon and LTPS worlds. They offer:
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• A mobility higher than a-silicon, though lower than LTPS;
• Low temperature fabrication, coupled with the potential for relatively cheap large scale
production, which LTPS does not offer (yet);
Page | 13
• Smaller pixel sizes than a-silicon, and hence higher resolution displays; and
• A larger aperture ratio compared to a-silicon per pixel, allowing for higher transmission
through the backplane. This feature could be used to reduce the power of the backlight,
or to increase brightness as per the device requirements.
Metal oxide thin films are potentially a competitive force to be reckoned with in this space, and
have garnered the commercial interests of multiple companies looking to capitalize on these
advantages. These firms will be elaborated on more in the following chapters in this report, but
both big names in the display space such as Sharp, as well as smaller companies like CBrite Inc.,
are hoping to really capitalize on the potential of thin-film metal oxide transistors to gain
traction in the display market.
Metal oxides have the potential to simultaneously impact both large and small area displays,
and offer a cost effective replacement for a-silicon. Improvements in fabrication processes and
the shift to truly large volume manufacturing will lower costs for metal oxides, easing their entry
into the laptop and television market.
Companies like Sharp and LG Display are already pushing metal oxide TFT backplanes for large-
area applications, and the relative simplicity and scalability of the production process for metal
oxide TFTs is a strong enabling factor for the technology.
Oxide TFT technology is largely compatible with existing production lines in use for LCD
displays, reducing the capital expenditure for panel makers. The production of large-scale OLED
displays will allow companies to leverage this factor, since they can modify existing LCD
production lines for the shift to oxide TFTs.
Large scale OLED displays are going into production soon, and oxide TFTs will be a very important
factor in ensuring that they are cost-competitive with LCD displays. The production of large
scale active-matrix OLEDs (AMOLEDs) and oxide TFTs will go hand-in-hand as they push forth
into the large area display marketplace.
Metal oxides will offer strong competition to LTPS, since both of these materials are ideally
suited for OLED displays. The explosive growth of the smartphone and tablet markets using
active-matrix OLEDs is the market driver most strongly pushing the development and
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commercialization of these materials in this market segment. The high resolution and increased
transmission through the backplane of both of these technologies are key requirements for
small area displays.
From purely a performance point of view, LTPS actually is superior to metal oxide TFTs at their Page | 14
current state-of-the-art. However the high costs associated with LTPS might prove to be a
technology killer going forward. This high-cost position of LTPS will allow metal oxide TFTs to be
used in a significant portion of the applications that LTPS would have been attempting to
capture going forward. So while LTPS may have the edge in the near term, metal oxide TFTs
could really pose a serious threat to its continued use.
The focus paid to silicon so far in this report is intended to provide a view of the competitive
landscape that metal oxide TFTs face as they enter the market. The devices they are used in
(and hence display size) will end up segmenting the market for metal oxide TFTs in a way that
allows the technology to leverage its strengths.
The market has effectively done the same thing for silicon, with a-silicon dominating the large
are display formats, and LTPS making an impact in smaller area displays and emerging OLED
displays. Metal oxide TFTs will need to position themselves slightly differently in each of these
markets, and do offer the potential for capturing significant revenue from each segment.
The success of metal oxide TFTs coming off of large volume production lines is yet to be
evaluated. Performance and quality control in manufacturing situations can be challenging in a
material that inherently has been shown to have inferior electrical stability (with regard to the
transistor threshold voltage) than a-silicon. The most important questions that will affect the
adoption of metal oxide TFTs as their output is increased over the next one to three years:
• Cost effectiveness of the production process. Will the expected minimal overhaul of the
existing LCD backplane production lines be a low capital expenditure move while still
providing high product quality?
• What is the true lifetime of the metal oxide backplane, and will electrical stability prove
to be a problem with use?
• Can the uniformity of the metal oxide thin film be improved and made comparable to a-
silicon, particularly in large scale displays? What are the scalability limits of the film?
Metal oxide TFTs should really be aiming at becoming the industry standard technology for
display backplanes over the next decade. In the current industry environment, the technologies
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competing with metal oxide TFTs are really LTPS, from the point of view of performance, and a-
silicon, simply because it is the current industry standard; there are no other emerging
technologies on the horizon that are far enough along in their development at this point to
really present a challenge to metal oxides.
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Additionally, LTPS is expensive for large-area manufacturing, and this fact is a prime example of
where performance alone doesn't guarantee success in the marketplace. Metal oxide TFTs are
much better-suited to the industry needs from the overall point of view of cost, performance,
manufacturability, and scalability.
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
The objective of this report is to highlight the business revenue opportunities for metal oxide
TFT backplane materials in the various market segments of the display industry. This goal is
achieved through an analysis of the evolution of the display market and its expected future
directions.
With regard to forecasting, more attention has been paid to the opportunities for the metal
oxide films that are likely to see commercialization over the course of this forecast period, such
as indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO). The range of possible material compositions available to
fabricate transparent metal oxide thin films is vast, and hence the ones that are being focused
on actively by companies in the industry are similarly highlighted here.
The other oxide materials that might have a role to play in the industry further on down the
road have been mentioned. These include aluminum zinc oxide, indium zinc oxide, zinc tin
oxide, hafnium indium zinc oxide and p-type amorphous oxides. However, their role as
backplane materials is not strongly emphasized from a commercial point of view by the display
industry, and they have been treated as such here.
The value propositions of the amorphous metal oxides discussed in this report are then
analyzed from the point of view of the needs of the display market, and their potential for
generating revenue is discussed. This report also provides detailed market forecasts for metal
oxide TFT backplanes in the display industry.
The market forecasts are presented by the main types of backplane materials, as well as by the
key market segments that metal oxide TFT backplanes will cater to. The forecasts consist of
annual revenue figures for panels using these materials, as well as the area of backplane
material used, over an eight-year period. The numbers have been arrived at based on analyzing
the state of the display industry and the various competitive forces at play within it.
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In addition, this report is international in scope. We have not been geographically selective in
the firms covered or interviewed for the purposes of compiling this report.
1.3 Methodology of this Report
The information for this report is derived from a variety of sources, primarily from Page | 16
NanoMarkets' interview program of technologists, business development managers and
academics associated with this field. An extensive search of the technical literature and relevant
company Web sites was also conducted. Additionally, previous reports from NanoMarkets that
bear relevance to the subject have been consulted, including the following: Markets for OLED
Materials 2011, Emerging Markets for Non-ITO Transparent Conductive Oxides 2011, and Zinc
Oxide Markets 2010 and Beyond.
The forecasting method used in this report is explained in detail in Chapter Four, but the
fundamental approach is to identify the key driving forces for the adoption of metal oxide
technology over the course of the forecasting period, and use these drivers as the basis for our
predictions. The driving forces within each display application are then evaluated to judge the
level of market penetration that metal oxide TFTs are likely to achieve in the various segments
in the display space.
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two will discuss the present technology roadmap for metal oxide TFTs, as well as
provide an assessment of the developmental progress of this technology at various firms.
Chapter Three will then go on to investigate the market requirements that are expected to
drive the adoption of oxide TFTs, and how these requirements will translate to revenue
opportunities. Finally, Chapter Four will go over our eight-year forecasts for metal oxide TFTs,
both from the point of view of the material type, as well as the applications that present
themselves.
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