Apple managed to follow its record-breaking first quarter with another that managed to stun observers. Wall Street had forecast a strong quarter, with good momentum carried over from the previous period, but the beat was even stronger. The real test will follow in the coming quarters, as the iPhone 6 heads towards the end of its cycle, and competition, most significantly Samsung, ships the new Galaxy 6 series.
Here once again is an introduction to the popular detailed summary of Apple's results, analysing and commenting on all the major metrics, and considering the key questions facing Apple in the coming months. (Not all the colours have successfully uploaded).
If you would like access to the full and detailed slides, with all the correct colours, drop me an email at nick@aquilla-europe.com
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Apple q2'15 commentary intro
1. Aquilla
Apple Results Q2 2015
Summary and Commentary
Note: Apple Q2 = Calendar Q1
These data are derived from results published by Apple, Inc., from the published results
of other companies, and from assorted independent analysts, as identified in the slides.
The opinions are those of the author, and should in no way be interpreted as
investment advice.
2. Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Quarterly Revenue
Extraordinary Growth
•Wall Street was bullish,
but revenues of $58.0B
left analysts on the
earnings call stunned
•These numbers are
leaving competitors in
the dust, as Samsung
Electronics saw
revenues fall by 12% in
Q4 (15% in USD), and
Samsung Mobile, which
fell by 20% (23% in
USD)
•Apple’s continued strong
growth is all the more
remarkable considering
the size of the company
today - the laws of large
numbers do not seem to
apply.
Comparative
Revenues
CQ1 2015
SamsungElectronics
Microsoft
Google
SamsungMobile
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
90%
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Revenue
Growth
(%)
Revenue
(B$)
Apple Revenue
Revenue B$ Revenue YoY Growth
3. Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Cash, Investments & Capital Return
Capital Return Program Grows
•Apple generated $19.1B of cash from
operations in the Quarter, another
huge jump from the year-ago quarter
•The company returned $9.7B to
shareholders during the quarter,
mostly through Stock Repurchases
($7B), which offer Apple greater
flexibility than dividends
•Long and short term cash holdings
grew by $16B in the quarter, and the
company now has over $194B in
cash
•This is enough to pay off the national
debt of Malaysia or Switzerland (and
nearly that of Russia), and is more
than the GDP of New Zealand
•Cash held outside the US, for tax
reasons, is increasingly an issue:
Apple is borrowing in the US to fund
the capital return programme, while
the offshore cash approaches 90% of
the total ($171B)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Ex-US(B$)
Cash & Capital Return
Short Term Cash B$ Long Term Cash B$
Cash Generated B$ Capital Return B$
Non-US Held Cash %
4. Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Revenue Mix by Product Line
iPhone dominates
•iPhone’s dominance
was massive, with
69% of the revenues,
and probably nearer
75-80% of the profit
in the quarter
•10% unit growth for
Mac, but declining
ASPs saw it gain only
2% in $ to a 9% share
of the mix
•iPad was the big loser,
declining a further
29%, and slipping
behind Mac in $
•Services continues to
grow (but needs
subscription audio)
•Other Products
declined with iPod,
which was about a
quarter of this
category in Q2 2014 -
Beats seems unable to
reverse this trend
Most recent
$ Share $ YoY
3% -10%
9% 9%
10% 2%
9% -29%
69% 55%
Services: iTunes, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services
Other Products: iPod, Apple TV, Beats Electronics and Apple-branded and third-party accessories
iPhone M$
iPad M$
Mac M$
Services M$
Other Products M$
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Product Line Revenue Mix
6. Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Geo Revenue and 12m Trailing
Americas/China Ticked Up
•Trailing 12 months shows clearly
where Apple’s growth is coming from
- Americas, China and APAC
•China was on fire, and also benefitted
from the Chinese New Year holiday
during the quarter, which is
increasingly a sales driver
•EMEIA appears to be slowing,
reflecting the developed nature of the
region and its sluggish economy
•Japan was the one weaker region, the
causes of which were not touched on
during the call.
•APAC is still small, but ticking up
strongly
Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3
previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and
gives a better indication of the longer term trends
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Revenue
$M
Geo Revenue and 12m Trailing Revenue
Americas EMEIA Greater China Japan APAC
Americas 12m Trailing EMEIA 12m Trailing Greater China 12m Trailing Japan 12m Trailing APAC 12m Trailing
7. Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Competitive Landscape - Tablets
Apple still leads in declining market
•Apple still leads, but lost 6% of share YoY
•Cook identified cannibalisation by both Mac and
iPhone, and was relaxed about this
•The IBM partnership has still to bring a major impact,
but remains promising - sales cycles are long. First major
such deal (in Japan) just announced (hits Q3 onwards)
Q1’15 M Q1’15% Q1’14 M Q1’14% Change
Apple 12.6 26.8% 16.4 32.7% -22.9%
Samsung 9.0 19.1% 10.8 21.6% -16.7%
Lenovo 2.5 5.3% 2.0 4.1% 23.0%
ASUS 1.8 3.8% 2.6 5.2% -30.7%
LG 1.4 3.1% 0.1 0.2% 1423.7%
Others 19.7 41.9% 18.1 36.3% 8.6%
Total 47.1 100.0% 50.0 100.0% -5.9%
Q1 2015 Tablet Units (IDC)
Source: IDCSource: IDC
9. Aquilla
Apple’s Q2 Results Analysis
These popular slides cover an in-depth analysis of
Apple’s historic record-beating Q2 results
The slides shown are an introduction
To receive the full set, including
charts, commentary, interpretation and outlook
plus all slides in full colour
contact
Aquilla Europe
nick@aquilla-europe.com
10. Aquilla
Nick Graves, CEO • nick@aquilla-europe.com • +44 780 225 6536
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