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バイデン勝利の本当の理由
本資料の分析はすべて筆者が独自に作成したものであり、著作権は筆者に帰属します。模倣・無断転載は著作権侵害になります。
©︎2022 Ryuji NISHITATENO. All Rights Reserved.
2022年3月14日
西立野 竜史
nishitateno@me.com
2
得票数
民主党がコロナを理由に郵便投票の全面解禁推進し、票数を大幅に伸ばし得票の6割弱が郵便による票
23
直接
2020
15
2016
51
63
48
74
郵便
郵便 18 46
66
48
35
2016 2020
81
直接
民主党 共和党
(百万票) (百万票)
民主党がコロナを
理由に郵便投票
の全面解禁推進
↓
得票数大幅増
6割弱が郵便
出所: Federal Election Commissionを元に筆者作成
©︎2022 Ryuji NISHITATENO. All Rights Reserved. 禁無断転載
3
不法移民の数と民主党票の増加分
民主党票の増えた数は、不法移民の数と一致している(郵便投票でどさくさで投票権を与えた疑惑)
29
51
60
40
43
ジ
ョ
ー
ジ
ア
46
55
イ
リ
ノ
イ
76 67
138
ニ
ュ
ー
ヨ
ー
ク
192
48
290
236
63
ア
リ
ゾ
ナ
ワ
シ
ン
ト
ン
ノ
ー
ス
カ
ロ
ラ
イ
ナ
60
79
38
カ
リ
フ
ォ
ル
ニ
ア
フ
ロ
リ
ダ
37
64
ニ
ュ
ー
ジ
ャ
ー
ジ
ー
テ
キ
サ
ス
民主増分
不法移民
万人
出所:US Department of Homeland Security (Bryan Baker. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United
States: January 2014. ) を元に筆者作成
©︎2022 Ryuji NISHITATENO. All Rights Reserved. 禁無断転載
4
50
100
35
55
65
95
45
30
40
60
25
20
オ
レ
ゴ
ン
ア
イ
ダ
ホ
ユ
タ
コ
ロ
ラ
ド
デ
ラ
ウ
ェ
ア
イ
リ
ノ
イ
メ
イ
ン
ハ
ワ
イ
マ
サ
チ
ュ
ー
セ
ッ
ツ
ネ
バ
ダ
バ
ー
モ
ン
ト
民主党の相対得票率
ミ
シ
ガ
ン
ニ
ュ
ー
ハ
ン
プ
シ
ャ
ー
ペ
ン
シ
ル
ベ
ニ
ア
ア
ー
カ
ン
ソ
ー
ワ
シ
ン
ト
ン
ア
リ
ゾ
ナ
ジ
ョ
ー
ジ
ア
ノ
ー
ス
カ
ロ
ラ
イ
ナ
フ
ロ
リ
ダ
イ
ン
デ
ィ
ア
ナ
オ
ハ
イ
オ
ニ
ュ
ー
ヨ
ー
ク
ア
イ
オ
ワ
コ
ロ
ン
ビ
ア
ア
ラ
ス
カ
サ
ウ
ス
カ
ロ
ラ
イ
ナ
テ
キ
サ
ス
ミ
シ
シ
ッ
ピ
カ
ン
ザ
ス
オ
ク
ラ
ホ
マ
ケ
ン
タ
ッ
キ
ー
カ
リ
フ
ォ
ル
ニ
ア
2016
ウ
ィ
ス
コ
ン
シ
ン
ミ
ズ
ー
リ
ネ
ブ
ラ
ス
カ
コ
ネ
チ
カ
ッ
ト
2020
サ
ウ
ス
ダ
コ
タ
テ
ネ
シ
ー
バ
ー
ジ
ニ
ア
ル
イ
ジ
ア
ナ
ア
ラ
バ
マ
ノ
ー
ス
ダ
コ
タ
モ
ン
タ
ナ
メ
リ
ー
ラ
ン
ド
ウ
ェ
ス
ト
バ
ー
ジ
ニ
ア
ワ
イ
オ
ミ
ン
グ
ミ
ネ
ソ
タ
ニ
ュ
ー
ジ
ャ
ー
ジ
ー
ニ
ュ
ー
メ
キ
シ
コ
ロ
ー
ド
ア
イ
ラ
ン
ド
民主党の得票率
不法移民票を積み増したことでスイングステイツを獲得し、大統領選に勝利した
前回トランプ
今回バイデン
が逆転
ブルーステイツ
民主党が勝つ州
レッドステイツ
共和党が勝つ州
スイングステイツ
どちらが勝つかわからない
出所: Federal Election Commission "Official 2020 presidential general election results"を元に筆者作成
©︎2022 Ryuji NISHITATENO. All Rights Reserved. 禁無断転載
5
大統領選挙の投票率
投票率の高い高齢者が勝利のカギ
66%
72%
51%
30-44歳 65+
56%
50%
68%
18-29歳
62%
42%
45-64歳
2020
2016
出所: census bureauを元に筆者作成
©︎2022 Ryuji NISHITATENO. All Rights Reserved. 禁無断転載
6
大統領選挙の出口調査
民主党は高齢者に弱かったが、今回の選挙で支持率を大きく改善し、勝利につなげた
14% 28%
2020 35%
59%
他党
58%
2016
6%
51%
2020
40%
2016
55%
2%
43%
9%
4%
45%
53%
2020
2016
47%
51%
44%
2020
2016
48%
53%
52%
3%
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
2016
35%
37%
他党
2020
8%
62%
55%
3%
42%
45%
2020
8%
50%
52%
2016
3%
44%
50%
2016
3%
2020 49%
53%
45%
2020
2%
53%
48% 51%
2016
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Pew Research Center(中立) NBC(民主党系、日経が参照)
バイデン/クリントン トランプ バイデン/クリントン トランプ
出所: PRC https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/、NBCを元に筆者作成
©︎2022 Ryuji NISHITATENO. All Rights Reserved. 禁無断転載

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バイデン勝利の本当の理由