The document summarizes diabetes prevalence estimates in the Middle East and North Africa region for 2017 and 2045 based on data from the 8th Edition of the International Diabetes Federation Atlas. It finds that approximately 39.9 million people in the region have diabetes currently, which is estimated to increase to 85.9 million by 2045. The age-adjusted diabetes prevalence is highest in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE currently. Egypt, Pakistan, and Iran have the highest number of people with diabetes. The region has the second highest diabetes prevalence and death rates globally. Extensive efforts are needed to curb the rising diabetes burden.

1. References:
1. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 1st Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2001
2. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 2nd Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2003
3. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 3rd Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2005
4. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 4th Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2009
5. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 5th Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2011
6. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 6th Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2013
7. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 7th Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2015
8. International Diabetes Federation IDF Diabetes Atlas , 8th Ed. Brussels, Belgium : International Diabetes Federation 2017
Presented at the IDF Congress 2017 in the category of
Epidemiology and Public Health, poster number p-0749
The 8th Edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas was supported by the following sponsors: Lilly Diabetes, Merck and Co,
Novo Nordisk
Diabetes Prevalence in Middle East and North
Africa region (Estimates for 2017 and 2045)
Yadi Huang1, Joao da Rocha Fernandes1, Suvi Karuranga1, Belma Malanda1, Nam Han Cho2
1International Diabetes Federation, Brussels,Belgium 2 Ajou Univeristy School of Medicine, Suwan , Korea
Introduction: Diabetes is a serious and increasing global epidemic, and
accurate estimates of the burden are essential for an efficient allocation
of resources. The new edition of the International Diabetes Federation
Atlas (IDF Atlas 8th ed. 2017) provides estimates of people (18-99 years)
living with diabetes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Previous estimates of the prevalence of diabetes have demonstrated a
growing burden, with notable national variability with the MENA region1-
7. The current estimates provide the latest figures based on the highest
quality data on diabetes prevalence for the 21 countries in the MENA
region.
Methodology: A total of 33 population-based data sources from 16
countries out of 21 in the MENA region were used to estimate diabetes
prevalence in adults in the region. Countries without data sources were
extrapolated from countries with similar geographic, ethnicity and
income group. Only Kuwait had a nationwide study conducted with the
last five years (2014). Algeria, Jordan, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,
Palestine, Sudan and United Arab Emirates have estimates partly based
on oral glucose tolerance tests, which is considered as the most reliable
diabetes diagnostic test. The estimated diabetes prevalence for the
remaining countries may be underestimates. The MENA region poses a
particular challenge for estimating diabetes prevalence probably due to
the fact that a large proportion of the resident population in many
countries consists of immigrants and refugees. As a result, studies that
include only national citizens provide a limited contribution to the overall
picture of diabetes for the whole country. The details of the methodology
of diabetes prevalence estimation can be found at IDF Diabetes Atlas 8th
8.
Results: Approximately 39.9 (27.9 -53.3) million people or 9.2% (6.4 –
12.3%) of adults aged 18-99 are living with diabetes in MENA Region in
2017. . About 49.1% of people with diabetes are estimated to be
undiagnosed. If the trend continues, the number of people with diabetes
will be more than double to 85.9 (595 – 114.2) million by 2045. The
number of deaths due to diabetes from age 20 to 99 years is 373,556
(Table 1)
At a glance 2017 2045
Adult population
(18-99 years)
435.1 million 728.5 million
Regional prevalence
(18-99 years)
9.2% (6.4 – 12.3%) 11.8% (8.2 – 15.7%)
Age-adjusted comparative
prevalence (18-99 years)
10.5% (7.2 – 13.9%) 10.4% (7.1 – 14%)
Number of people with
diabetes
(18-99 years)
39.9 million
(27.9 – 53.3 million)
85.9 million
(59.5 – 114.2million)
Number of deaths due to
diabetes (20-99 years)
373,556
(256,544 -501,539)
Table 1 Diabetes estimates of IDF MENA region in 2017 and 2045
Figure 1 Diabetes estimates by different age
groups in women and men
Diabetes Prevalence increases from age 18 and peaks around age 65 years
(almost 25% in women)(Figure 1). Women have a higher diabetes prevalence than
men in this region. Bahrain (14.9%), Qatar (14.9%) and UAE (14.8%) are the top
three countries with highest age-adjusted prevalence in this region (Table 2,
Figure 2). Egypt (8.5 million), Pakistan (7.7 million) and Iran (5.1 million) are the
top three countries with highest number of people with diabetes. (Figure 2)
Countries with the highest proportion of deaths before the age of 60 are Bahrain
(72%), Qatar (71%) and Saudi Arabia (66%). (Figure 3)
Conclusion:
The age-adjusted diabetes prevalence (18-99 years) in MENA region is 10.5%, which is the second highest after North America and Caribbean region compared to
all IDF regions. The attributable deaths due to diabetes below the age of 60 is also the second highest among IDF regions (namely 51.8%). The current estimates
of 38.7 million people with diabetes is expected to increase as much as 112% by 2045. Extensive work is needed in order to implement action plans for the
prevention and control of diabetes and related complications to reduce the social and economic burden in the IDF MENA region.
Figure 2 Age-adjusted diabetes prevalence ranked by countries and the
number of people with diabetes in each country
53% 57% 59% 63% 64% 65% 66% 71% 72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Figure 3 Countries with more than 50% proportion of deaths before the
age of 60
QR code:
diabetesatals.org
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
18-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
Millions
Women Men
Women (Prevalence) Men (Prevalence)
Rank Country
Age
adjusted
prevalence
1
Saudi
Arabia
17.7%
2 UAE 17.2%
3 Egypt 16.8%
4 Bahrain 16.3%
5 Qatar 16.3%
Table 2 Top 5 countries
with highest age adjusted
diabetes prevalence
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Yemen
Algeria
Morocco
Syrian
Pakistan
Tunisia
Iraq
Iran
Afghanistan
Palestine
Libya
Jordan
Oman
Lebanon
Sudan
Kuwait
Qatar
Bahrain
Egypt
UAE
Saudi
Arabia
Millions
Age-adjusted prevalence
Number of people with
diabetes (18-99 years)