Tech Startup Growth Hacking 101 - Basics on Growth Marketing
Mi ui webinar pp 06 05-2014
1. The Impact of the 2011changes to
Michigan’s Unemployment
Insurance Program on
Unemployed workers and their
families.
FAMILIES AT RISK,
REPORT II
H. Luke Shaefer, Ph.D.
&
Steve Gray, attorney at law
2. Unemployment Insurance (UI) is the major public insurance
program in the United States that protects families against the
dangers of involuntary job loss.
Unemployment Insurance plays an important role as an economic
stabilizer as beneficiaries often immediately put their benefits
back into the local economy.
In general, to be eligible for UI, jobless workers must have
become unemployed through no fault of their own and have meet
the minimum earning requirements.
Michigan’s Unemployment rates as of October 2013 was 8.6%,
above the national average of 7.2%
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
INTRODUCTION
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3. In 2011 the Michigan Legislature made a series of changes
to the state’s UI program that took effect in 2012.
Today’s webinar will examine the impact of the changes
made to Michigan’s UI program in 2011 on the access for
Michigan’s unemployed workers.
The report’s general findings are that the 2011 changes to
Michigan’s UI program significantly reduced the number of
short-term unemployed workers who access state program
benefits.
WEBINAR OVERVIEW
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4. The most well known change was the reduction in state
benefit weeks from 26 to 20 weeks causing workers to
lose additional weeks from related federal UI programs,
which were prorated based on the number of benefits weeks
offered by states.
The legislature also made a series of other lesser-known
changes to Michigan’s UI program, causing a net effect of
reduced rates of program eligibility, increase burden on
claimants, and give Michigan’s Unemployment Insurance
Agency (UIA) more tools to contest claims.
SUMMARY OF CHANGES
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5. The 2011 changes to Michigan’s UI Program caused 16
major changes that negatively affected access to program
benefits to varying degrees.
15 changes reduced access by the following mechanism:
1. Reduced eligibility rates for benefits expanding types of
employment that at not eligible for benefits and increasing
the types of disqualifying separations
2. Increased burdens on claimants through additional
obstacles to maintaining eligibility for UI benefits and
3. Giving Michigan’s Unemployment Insurance Agency more
tools to contest claims, with very few protections for the
claimants.
CHANGES TO MICHIGAN’S UI PROGRAM
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6. To test whether the 2011 changes reduced access to
Michigan’s UI program, we compared Michigan’s UI
recipiency rate (for short-term workers) to what the state’s
own pre-2011 trends would have predicted
Use data back to 1995
We model Michigan’s short-term UI recipiency rate from
1995-2011 as a function of the monthly unemployment rate
and calendar month, two factors that explain 57.8% of the
variation in this outcome
Then we predict what Michigan’s recipiency rate would have
been if past trends had continued, and compare that to the
actual recipiency rate
TEST 1: COMPARING MICHIGAN TO ITS
OWN PRE-2011 TRENDS
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7. TEST 1: COMPARING MICHIGAN TO ITS
OWN PRE-2011 TRENDS
Figure 1: Michigan’s Recipiency Rate for the Short-Term Unemployment
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8. TEST 1: CONCLUSION
To determine the impact of the 2011 changes, we took the
difference between the actual and predicted line in 2012-
2013 and subtract those differences from the difference
between the actual and the predicated in 2010.
Based on this calculation we come to our first estimate on
the impact of the 2011 changes to Michigan’s UI Program:
Finding that these 2011 changes to Michigan’s UI
program reduced the recipiency rate for the state’s
short-term unemployment by 11.9 percentage points
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9. To test whether the 2011 changes reduced access to
Michigan’s UI program we compared two nearby states of
similar size and with similar economies
Illinois has historically had a very similar UI recipiency rate
to Michigan & Ohio has historically had a somewhat lower
recipiency rate
The goal of this analysis was to compare the difference
between these recipency rate in Michigan and these other
states in 2012 and 2013, relative to the difference between
these recipiency rates before Michigan’s 2011 UI changes
were implemented.
TEST 2: COMPARING MICHIGAN TO
MIDWESTERN PEERS
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12. In 2012 and 2013, Michigan’s recipiency rate fell substantially
below the combined recipiency rate of Illinois and Ohio by 7% in
2012 and 8% in 2013
Compared to Illinois - Michigan’s 2011 changes are associated
with an estimated loss of benefits for 14,579 short-term
unemployed workers in an average week, equivalent to a 19.2%
drop in UI recipiency rate
Compared with Ohio – they cost an estimated loss of benefits for
20,906 workers in an average week, a 25.4% drop in recipiency
rate
Compared to Michigan’s pre-2011 trends – reflect a loss of
benefits for 32,754 workers in an average week, a 34.8% drop in
benefits
TEST 1 & 2: CONCLUSION
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13. The 2011 changes to Michigan’s UI program also reduced
the amount of federal UI benefit dollars into Michigan.
Only states that offer at least 26 weeks of state benefits
qualified for the federal maximum in aid available at a given
unemployment rate.
Therefore unemployed workers in Michigan not only now
receive reduced state benefits, but also loss eligibility for
additional weeks of federal unemployment insurance
coverage.
THE IMPACT OF REDUCTION IN STATE BENEFIT
WEEKS ON THE LOST OF FEDERAL BENEFITS
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14. THE IMPACT OF STATE REDUCED
BENEFITS ON FEDERAL BENEFITS
Figure 4: Maximum Weeks of State and Federal Unemployment Benefits in Michigan
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15. The legislative changes are associated with between a
19.2% and 34.8% reduction in recipiency rate for
Michigan’s short-term unemployed.
Which equated to a loss of weekly benefits for between
14,600 and 32,800 workers in an average week, or
approximately $4.1 million to $9.1 million in benefits paid in
an average week
These changes overall have caused a major reduction in
access to unemployment insurance benefits and have
negatively effected the state’s economy and well-being of
the Michigan’s unemployed workers and their families.
CONCLUSION
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Editor's Notes
Figure One:
Presents the results of this analysis.
The state’s actual short-term recipency rate is plotted in green with the predictions from the model described above in red. The model generates value for each month in the study period, however for ease of interprestation only values from October of each year (representing a six-month average ending in October) are plotted. Results are substantively similar when all months are plotted.
1) In 2012 and 2013 the years of the 2011 changes to Michigan’s UI program – we find that the UI’s Recipancy rate for short-term workers falls to the lowest levels in Michigan’s recorded history. By 2013, this recipency rate has falling to 22.3% a full 8 percentage points lower than the next closest value.
Figure 2: Demonstrates this by plotting the recipiency rate for the short-term unemployed in Michigan alongside the combined Illinois and Ohio recipiency rate for the short-term unemployed.
Figure 2 demonstrates a sizable gap opened up between Michigan and the two comparison states after the implementation of the 2011 changes.
Figure 3: Estimates what the results of these three models suggest in terms of benefits for unemployed workers in Michigan. These estimates are taken from results for a six month average ending in October 2013
Figure 4: In October 2011 – before the Michigan legisature cut the maximum number of state benefits weeks available to workers from 26 to 20 weeks – unemployment workers in Michigan qualified for 99 weeks of combined state and federal benefits, the national maximum. However after the state benefit reduction took effect in 2012, Michigan’s Unemployed workers lost out on both federal and state benefits.
In October – 2012, long-term unemployed workers in Michigan lost up to 17 weeks of UI Benefits, including the loss of the 6 weeks state benefits and then 11 weeks of federal.
As of 2013, jobless workers loss up to eight weeks of federal unemployment insurance.
As of 2014, the federal supplement UI programs have been terminated.
