SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 16
Download to read offline
Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
Aon Risk Solutions
Aon Infrastructure Solutions
P3-POINT™
The Public-Private Partnerships Pursuit
and Opportunity in Infrastructure Tool
First Quarter 2016
Executive Summary. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Political Risk and Public-Private Partnerships. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 2
P3-POINT™ Methodology.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 2
P3-POINT™ Industry Survey .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 3
P3-POINT™ Model and Scoring. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 6
P3-POINT™ Results .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
P3-POINT™: 2016 Scores for the United States as of
February 12, 2016 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 10
P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for the United States as of
February 12, 2016 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 11
P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for Canada as of
February 12, 2016 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 11
Conclusion .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 12
Table of Contents
Aon Risk Solutions	 1
Executive Summary
Political risk continues to be a key issue facing
public-private partnership (P3) projects in the
United States of America. Public-private partnerships
are an innovative project delivery method
that utilizes private finance and private sector
discipline to design, construct and maintain public
infrastructure assets. In the U.S., P3 projects are
only possible if a state has the requisite enabling
legislation allowing such projects. In Canada,
legislation at the federal level (Canada Strategic
Infrastructure Act) enables P3s generally and several
provinces have legislation to authorize specific
agencies to regulate P3 procurement. However,
even if the requisite legislation is in place, private
investors and contractors face the risk that their
investment in pursuing a public infrastructure
project could be affected by changing political
preferences. In sum, political risk deeply influences
P3 project likelihood and success at a time when
the P3 model is increasingly being adopted by
governments to address the demand for improved,
new or better maintained infrastructure.
Aon’s P3 Pursuit and Opportunity in Infrastructure
Tool (P3-POINT™) is one of the only tools of its kind
that assesses the “readiness” and “friendliness”
of U.S. states and Canadian provinces for P3
procurements. Readiness is a measurement that
describes the procurement, regulatory, and policy
mechanisms that define a state’s or province’s ability
to procure P3 projects. Friendliness is a measurement
that describes states’ and provinces’ willingness
and drive to successfully procure P3 projects. Using
these two measurements, P3-POINT™ assesses the
impact of the regulatory environment and political
climate of U.S. states and Canadian provinces on
their ability to successfully procure P3 projects.
In developing P3-POINT™, Aon administered a
survey that was shared with more than 1,000 P3
industry leaders. Survey recipients were senior
decision-makers from major construction firms,
legal, technical and risk advisors, and infrastructure
investors. The survey asked for their views on
the multiple issues that impact the bidding
climate for P3s in the U.S. and Canada. Responses
were anonymous and were to show industry
perception around the key factors that make up
a jurisdiction’s “readiness” and “friendliness” for
P3s. The data also provided insight into the ways
that various factors should be weighted in P3-
POINT™, meaning that some factors were given
more weight in the model than other factors.
Aon then examined and scored each state and
province based on the factors. After tabulating the
scores, P3-POINT™ results illustrate the differences
between the regulatory, political, and procurement
climates for P3 projects in states and provinces.
Aon’s P3-POINT™ highlights those states and
provinces that are most likely to support a successful
P3 procurement. P3-POINT™ results can be used as
one of the tools that contractors and investors use
when determining whether or not to pursue a P3
project in a particular jurisdiction. The following
white paper discusses the methodology that
Aon utilizes to assess political facing P3 projects
and discusses the tool’s significant results and
observations as of the first quarter in 2016. The
report identifies those states and provinces
that, in our opinion, are the most certain (from
a political perspective) to have a successful
procurement process for P3 projects and those
states and provinces that are less certain to run a
successful procurement process for P3 projects.1
1	The information contained in this report is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of a particular individual or entity. The observations made in this report are
Aon’s opinion only. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of
the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the
particular situation.
2	 P3-POINT Tool
Political Risk and
Public-Private Partnerships
Public-private partnerships (P3) have emerged as
an innovative tool available to states and provinces
needing to build or repair infrastructure. The P3
market has developed unevenly across the globe as
more governments pass legislation needed to adopt
the P3 model. In a mature market, such as in the
United Kingdom, one in four infrastructure projects
is procured through public-private partnerships.
In 2015, Canada procured 36% of its infrastructure
with the P3 model and the U.S. procured 1% of its
infrastructure using P3.2
In the U.S., we anticipate
11 projects to close in 2016 with a capital value of
USD$8.7 billion dollars. We anticipate that
21 projects will close in Canada in 2016, with a
total capital value of USD$12.8 billon – the highest
value of P3 projects to be completed in Canadian
history.3
While deal flow and project activity vary
widely, there continues to be an upward trend for
the P3 model’s usage by public sector parties.
However, the P3 marketplace suffers when
projects are delayed or cancelled. Contractors,
private investors, and other parties engaged in
the P3 procurement process expend significant
effort – both in terms of intellectual property
and monetary investment – when bidding for P3
projects. Private parties become more hesitant
to embark on a P3 pursuit in light of an elevated
risk of project delay or cancellation, leading
to a narrower competitive field from which
governments can access during the procurement
process. Delays and cancellations are often the
result of political risk – changes in the political
and regulatory environment. Aon’s P3 Pursuit and
Opportunity in Infrastructure Tool (P3-POINT™) aims
to help governments, contractors, and investors
better understand the political and regulatory
environment for P3, leading to more effective
implementation of this procurement method.
P3-POINT™
Methodology
In P3-POINT™, political risk is evaluated using two
measurements of the procurement environment:
“readiness” and “friendliness”. “Readiness” is a
measurement that describes the procurement,
regulatory, and policy mechanisms that define
a state’s or province’s ability to procure P3
projects. “Friendliness” is a measurement that
describes the public sector’s willingness and
drive to successfully procure P3 projects.
Within these measurements, we identified
a subset of 16 factors that capture the most
important aspects of procurement “readiness”
and political environment “friendliness.”
The table below lists the sub-factors for the
two primary measurements in the tool.
2	AIS analysis of capex data from IHS and Infra-Deals. February 2016
3	AIS analysis of project pipeline and anticipated capital spend. February 2016
Aon Risk Solutions	 3
Readiness Factors Friendliness Factors
The state/province has established requisite legislation,
allowing it to procure projects as P3s.
The state/province has a political champion (governor)
who is a strong supporter and advocate for P3s.
The state/province has the ability to procure projects
as P3s in both the transportation and “social” (vertical)
infrastructure sectors.
There is no existence of a known, organized opposition
that actively opposes P3s projects in the state/province.
Municipal entities have legislative authority to procure
P3s without additional state approval or oversight.
The state/province has executed P3 projects successfully
in the past five years.
The state/province has founded and runs a dedicated P3
procurement entity to manage P3 procurements.
The state/province maintains a P3 project pipeline, or
established list of projects that the state/province would
like to procure as P3s.
The P3 legislation stipulates the rules and restrictions
related to tolling, including identifying the entities
responsible for rate setting.
The credit rating of the state/province is sufficient to
support successful P3 procurements.
The state/province’s P3 legislation permits for all
forms of the P3 model and specifies the procurement
timeframe and methods.
The procurement approval procedures do not provide
for a final approval from elected or appointed officials.
The state/province has established standard tendering
procedures for P3 projects.
The state/province does not have a high reliance on
federal funding for infrastructure projects.
The state/province provides unsuccessful bidders with
stipends to compensate them for their P3 pursuit costs.
The state/province is not in a current election year.
P3-POINT™ Industry Survey
In developing P3-POINT™, Aon surveyed more than
1,000 P3 industry leaders from major construction
firms, legal, technical and risk advisors, and
infrastructure investors. The survey, distributed in
the fourth quarter of 2015, asked for private sector
leaders’ views on the multiple issues that impact
the bidding climate for P3s in the U.S. and Canada.
Approximately 18% of those surveyed responded
and provided insight into the P3 procurement
process. Seventy-percent of those surveyed are
senior decision-makers from contracting firms;
the remainder of those surveyed is a mix of
investors and advisors active in the industry.
The survey was designed to capture industry
leaders’ opinions on influential factors that drive
P3 success in the U.S. and Canada. Respondents
were asked to indicate the sector in which their
firm works (with the option of selecting multiple
sectors). Sixty-eight percent of respondents work
in the civil transportation infrastructure sector,
57% work in vertical or social infrastructure, 52%
of respondents work in the water/waste sector,
and 27% of respondents work in other private
sector capacities (such as law or finance). Of those
that responded, 93% indicated that it was very
likely and likely that they would be pursuing a P3
project in the next 12 months. More than half
(64%) of respondents specified that pursuing
P3 procurements figured prominently into their
growth plans. More than 70% of respondents
work in the U.S., with the remainder of participants
deriving from Canada. The demographic make-up
of survey respondents show that the survey was
taken by those most active in the P3 industry and
conducting P3 pursuits in the U.S. and Canada
(those jurisdictions analyzed by P3-POINT™).
4	 P3-POINT Tool
Responses were recorded anonymously and then
aggregated to show industry perception around the
key factors that make up a jurisdiction’s “readiness”
and “friendliness” for P3s. The first question in the
survey asked participants to indicate the importance
of “readiness” or “friendliness” in impacting the
government’s ability to run a procurement process
for a P3 that results in financial close. Level of
importance was measured on a scale from 1-10 for
the participants to respond. The average scale score
was 8.3 for “readiness” and 7.8 for “friendliness”.
Next, we used a similar process to understand
the importance of individual factors that make up
the “readiness” and “friendliness” measurements.
Respondents were asked 16 questions that related to
both measurements and then asked to evaluate each
factor’s level of importance on a rank from one to
ten, one being the least important factor influencing
P3 procurement and 10 being the most important
factor influencing P3 procurement. We asked
participants to rank factors relative to each other and
prioritize tem. The average score for these questions
were then calculated for each of the factors.
The existence of legislation and the kinds of
projects allowed under such legislation under
the “readiness” measurement were ranked
highest by survey respondents. Under the
“friendliness” measurement, the government’s
(successful) experience with P3 and the
presence of a political champion were ranked
highly as factors that evidence whether a
state or province is “friendly” to P3s.
Respondents also provided additional insight
into the factors comprising “readiness” and
“friendliness”. One respondent wrote: “Is the
project critical to the government? Critical projects
help create political will and enable the public
to proceed through opposition, regardless of
delivery model (P3 or otherwise).” The significance
of the project in meeting community needs
was often cited as a contributing component
to likelihood of success in P3 procurement.
Respondents also reflected on the importance
of a political champion, or an elected official
willing to expend political capital in support
of P3 projects. A survey respondent noted that
“The project must have a champion and a hook.
The champion is the driver to break down the
political obstacles that could derail the project.
The hook is the need being met by the project
itself. There needs to be a real or perceived
need to drive these projects to completion.”
Additionally, another respondent commented
that “A political champion is critical, but they
must be championing P3 to achieve realistic goals
that are aligned with what P3 can actually deliver.
The rhetoric and understanding of key officials
is an important factor in determining whether
or not a jurisdiction is ready, willing and able to
procure a P3. It is also important to understand
the budgeting and appropriations processes in
a jurisdiction, especially for availability payment
based transactions. If those processes are not
aligned with the delivery method, then a successful
Aon Risk Solutions	 5
procurement will be quite challenging.” Through
these comments, private industry leaders described
the connections between the myriad of factors that
make up the landscape for P3 project success.
We also asked participants to identify additional
factors that are important in the pursuit planning
process. The table below lists some of the responses
that participants offered. Several respondents
observed that matching their firms’ strengths and
capabilities with the P3 project at hand was another
important factor influencing P3 pursuit choices.
Out of the additional factors suggested by
respondents, there was no clear statistical consensus
on additional factors needed for the P3-POINT™
model. The table below shows some of the
additional factors posed by survey respondents.
Aggregate survey responses similarly showed
that no one factor gained a very low ranking, so
there was no unanimity on factors that should be
excluded from the model. Consequently, we built
a model around the two primary measurements
(“readiness” and “friendliness”) and sixteen
factors within those two measurements.
What other factors do you evaluate before pursuing a P3 project in a state or province?
(89 total answers)
“Community view of the project”
“Source of funds (how secure); Likelihood that [the project] award will go to a local group or other group with
strong political power”
“Project type, length, bidders, and site conditions”
“The competition pursuing projects in the state or province; the ability for the Governor or Premier to have a
veto of the project; whether the public in the province recognizes that the project satisfies a need; clarity of
procurement process and evaluation”
“Level of public support for P3 project itself”
“Multiple levels of government involved can complicate a project”
“Politics, politics, politics”
“The experience of all the stakeholders”
“Available government resources and time commitment”
“Duration of tendering process, previous set-backs to P3 projects”
“Government understanding of P3”
“Whether [the government] legally be the counterparty in a P3”
“Benchmark [Value for Money] VfM established and published upfront for private sector to beat”
“Available funding from the state or province”
“Cost of capital”
6	 P3-POINT Tool
P3-POINT™ Model and Scoring
At the heart of the P3-POINT™ tool is a weighted
sum model. This form of model provides a
sensitivity analysis that allows us to look at the
influence of multiple factors on the P3 procurement
environment. Additionally, a weighted sum model
recognizes that not every metric is measured
equally. For instance, the “readiness” measurement
received a 53% weight and “friendliness” received
a 47% weight; therefore, “readiness” is weighted
with slightly more importance than “friendliness”.
Using the average responses from the industry
survey, each measurement and factor are
ranked from most to least influential in a P3
procurement success. In other words, the
survey’s average responses were translated into
a percent weight for each factor. This weight
accordingly contributes to the importance
assigned to each factor in the model.
Within each “readiness” and “friendliness”
measurement, we scored states/provinces on each
factor using a standardized method on a 0 to 100
basis. Scoring states and provinces required a
detailed examination of relevant legislation and a
thorough study of environmental conditions, such
as researching governors’ voting records on P3.
Our proprietary P3 legislation database records
current statutes and tracks pending legislative
action related to P3. We used the legislation
database to conduct an in-depth analysis of
existing legislation relevant to P3. Ultimately,
the scoring of each factor in each state and
province – combined with the weight associated
with each factor in each state and province and
measurement – produces the P3-POINT™ results.
After tabulating the scores, P3-POINT™ produces
three scores: a “readiness” score, a “friendliness”
score, and an aggregate Score. The aggregate
score is the summation of the “readiness” score and
“friendliness” score and these two measurements
are also weighted according to survey results as
noted above. All scores are then placed within
equally distributed categories ranging from “Low
Risk” to “High Risk”. The three scores are intended
to illustrate the differences between the states
and provinces on the regulatory and legislative,
political, and procurement environments for P3s.
4	The information contained in this report are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide
accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be
accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
Aon Risk Solutions	 7
P3-POINT™
Results4
Aon’s P3-POINT™ identifies those states and
provinces that, in our opinion, are the most
certain for successful P3 procurements and those
states and provinces that are the least certain
for P3 projects. The map shown on page 11
shows states’ and provinces’ aggregate scores
(total “readiness” and “friendliness” scores).
The P3-POINT™ tool is dynamic – meaning that
the results will change as the political climate
adjusts. The results below describe political risk
facing P3 procurement as of February 12, 2016.
Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Maryland are the
states, in our opinion, most certain to conduct
successful P3 procurements. The legislation
underpinning P3 in these states is comprehensive
and detailed, offering greater security to bidders
about the transparency and efficacy of the
procurement process. Even in the face of overt
political risk – such as the election of a new governor
in Maryland – a strong foundation based on
comprehensive legislation and sound procurement
practices goes a long way in establishing a P3
procurement that should end in a successful
financial close. Other notable features include
Georgia’s recently passed legislation that broadens
its ability to build infrastructure with P3, which
outweighed the state’s previous cancellation of the
West by Northwest Road Project. All of these states
are either currently overseeing P3 procurements
and/or have successfully managed P3 projects.
Those that present the least certainty for
procurement success –such as Idaho, Montana,
Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Rhode Island
and New Mexico – are states without enabling
legislation in place and do not have a P3 project
track record to rely upon. Generally, rural states do
not have enabling legislation and receive a greater
share of federal dollars (relative to other states)
for civil transportation projects. In our research,
we found a statistical correlation between a low
reliance on federal funding and the likelihood that
the state has executed a P3 project in the past
five years. States that are not certain to produce
successful P3 procurements also do not have the
population growth and rapid urbanization that
often prompts state innovation in infrastructure.
There are a number of surprising results revealed
by applying P3-POINT™. New York, categorized
as a “Not Certain” state, saw the financial close of
the Goethals Bridge project. This procurement
was made possible because Port Authority of New
York  New Jersey has the authority to pursue
such a project without further state authorization.
Additionally, New York/New Jersey has yet to
see successful close of the LaGuardia Terminal
Building P3 project in 2015. New York and New
Jersey face a number of challenges that make
it riskier to pursue P3 in the states, such as the
lack of enabling legislation, lack of a political
champion (New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christie
vetoed P3 legislation in 2015), and lack of a P3
pipeline outside of the projects pursued by the
Port Authority of New York  New Jersey.
Some states’ categorization as “Less Certain” – such
as Illinois, Kentucky, and Nevada – reflects accurately
the high profile cancellations or delays of various P3
projects in those states (the Illiana Expressway, Brent
Spence Bridge, and Project NEON respectively).
“Less Certain” states and provinces may have lower
scores for other factors. For example, Kentucky’s
HB 443 bill did not advance beyond Senate
committee due to considerable opposition in the
state legislature in 2015. While Illinois’ Governor
Bruce Rauner has recently announced the intent
to use P3 for the I-55 Managed Lanes project, the
combination of other regulatory and environmental
issues continue to place Illinois in the “Less Certain”
categorization. “Less Certain” states often possess
obstacles to successful P3 procurement, but
these states may have a couple of key elements
that could make P3 possible in the state.
8	 P3-POINT Tool
Michigan also shares a “Less Certain” categorization
in P3-POINT™. Michigan successfully worked on
several construction projects delivered through
alternative delivery methods over the years.
Most notably, the state closed on the Michigan
Freeway Lighting project in 2015. The state DOT
possesses the ability to procure projects by
various means, but the state overall lacks P3-
specific enabling legislation. Without legislation
in place, the procurement process is difficult to
anticipate and leads to greater uncertainty.
Michigan is also an example of an environment
that exemplifies the political risk facing P3
projects. In 2016, the state of Michigan and the
government of Canada will embark on the Gordie
Howe International Bridge P3 procurement.
The procurement will be managed solely by the
Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority (WDBA), which
is a not-for-profit entity that is owned by the
Canadian government. While the border crossing
project is bi-national in nature, it is revealing that
the procurement is managed solely by a Canadian
entity. Considering Michigan’s undefined political
will and lack of P3-specific procurement processes,
one may wonder if these risks may pose obstacles
to the project. With a new Liberal government in
place in 2016, the outgoing chairman of WDBA
reflected on the risks facing the project, particularly
the “reliance on Michigan to acquire most of
the key properties on behalf of the WDBA and
the state’s long-term political commitment to
crossing agreements in the 30-year concession.5
Canada is generally seen as the crucible for P3
development in North America. With more than
20 years of experience and with the formation
of entities such as PPP Canada, Infrastructure
Ontario and Partnerships BC, the country has
churned out P3 projects time and again. It may
seem that the country is unified around P3
procurement, but P3-POINT™ indicates procurement
certainty varies between the provinces.
The major economic regions of Ontario, Alberta,
British Columbia and Quebec score have very
high “readiness” scores. These provinces have a
long and stable history of procuring P3 projects
and this is reflected in the “readiness” scores.
Other provinces such as, Newfoundland and
Labrador, Nova Scotia and Manitoba have not
established a separate P3 procurement agency to
manage their P3 project endeavors and are less
ready. In general, these three Canadian provinces
are more P3 “ready” than P3 “friendly” due to
well-formed P3 opposition, a lack of published
pipelines, and a lack of political champions.
Canada’s success delivering P3 projects has
not come without criticism. Between 2012 and
2015, Auditor Generals in Ontario, BC, Alberta,
Saskatchewan and New Brunswick released reports
critical of the P3 model and questioning whether
P3s deliver value for money. The AG reports led
to significant debate in various provinces, with
some provincial opposition parties calling for P3s
to be scrapped entirely. Additionally, there is vocal
union opposition against P3s across the country.
Canada’s P3 friendliness also suffers because of
uncertainty over future projects. Currently, only
three provinces (Ontario, Quebec and BC) have a
published pipeline of P3 projects. Lastly, outside
of Ontario and Quebec, there is no visible political
champion for P3s. In Alberta, for example, the newly
elected NDP government, who has traditionally
been opposed to P3s are now in power. This change
in political climate poses additional uncertainty
on the future of the P3 model in the province.
While not “deal killers”, these elements simply
make the provinces slightly less desirable than say,
Ontario, in terms of attractiveness to P3 bidders.
Several jurisdictions show promise for successful P3
project opportunities. As noted above, states with
the lowest threat of political risk have P3 experience.
California, Louisiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are
categorized as certain – but not most certain – for
5	“Gordie Howe Bridge P3 Risks Unsettled.” Public Works Financing. December 2015.
Aon Risk Solutions	 9
P3 procurement a variety of reasons. Pennsylvania
oversaw the successful financial close for the
Pennsylvania Rapid Bridge Replacement Project in
2015; yet, the legislation in place in Pennsylvania
is not as inclusive as other forms of P3 legislation
across the United States. Louisiana, on the other
hand, has P3 regulations that are broader and
stipulate standard tendering procedures. The
state is relatively new to the P3 marketplace and
has introduced two new projects (Louisiana Parish
Wastewater Facility and LSU Nicholson Gateway
Project) in the past year, so its policies are yet
to be tested fully. The P3-POINT™ tool permits
viewers to look more closely at the procurement
environments for P3 and enables bidders make
more accurate decisions where they wish to invest.
The scatterplot chart below reveals more about
the relationship between the two primary
measurements and the meaning of the aggregate
score when translated into terms of certainty.
The indicators for each state are colored along a
scale to show the aggregate score (the weighted
combination of “readiness” and friendliness”
scores). The indicator for each state is also plotted
on an axis, which displays both the “readiness”
and “friendliness” scores. States that do not have
enabling legislation – such as New Hampshire
and New Mexico – are seen at the far left of
the chart. States with enabling legislation
and a broad set of procurement practices
are located on the far right of the chart.
We observed that most states earn a base level
of points within the “friendliness” measurement
despite a lack of P3 “readiness”. This is because some
of the factors in the “friendliness” measurement are
symptomatic of an overall “friendly” environment
to infrastructure investment. For instance, most
states and provinces have an investment grade
credit rating of BBB- and above. Most states scored
well in this area and an investment grade rating
is conducive to not only P3 development, but
also public infrastructure development overall.
This explains why some states earn a number of
points in this area. If P3 enabling legislation were in
place, the model would then position these states
as lower risk. Ultimately, the scatterplot shows
there is a clear relationship between “readiness”
and “friendliness”. States that are most likely to
pursue P3 have a “friendliness” score greater than
70 and a “readiness” score greater than 60.
10	 P3-POINT Tool
P3-POINT™: 2016 Scores for the United States as of First Quarter 2016
Color indicates aggregate score for “Readiness” and “Friendliness”
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Ontario
Quebec
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Manitoba
British Columbia
Prince Edward Island
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Newfoundland and
Labrador
Puerto Rico
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
FriendlinessScore
Readiness Score
More Certain 80 - 100
Certain 60 - 80
Less Certain 40 - 60
Not Certain 20 - 40
Not Certain 0 - 20
Aon Risk Solutions	 11
P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for the United States as of First Quarter 2016
More Certain 80 - 100
Certain 60 - 80
Less Certain 40 - 60
Not Certain 20 - 40
Not Certain 0 - 20
P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for Canada as of First Quarter 2016
More Certain 80 - 100
Certain 60 - 80
Less Certain 40 - 60
Not Certain 20 - 40
Not Certain 0 - 20
12	 P3-POINT Tool
Conclusions
Aon’s Public-Private Partnerships Pursuit and
Opportunity in Infrastructure Tool (P3-POINT™)
can be used to direct attention toward U.S.
and Canadian jurisdictions that are likely to be
the most stable and promising locations for P3
infrastructure investment. The tool’s results help
P3 stakeholders better understand the overall
political and legal environment for P3 in each
state and province so that stakeholders can make
informed decisions as to where they wish to
invest their resources pursuing P3 projects.
P3-POINT™ is accessible to Aon clients as a benefit
of using the Aon Construction Risk Portal (CRP).
CRP has become an essential tool to help clients
and colleagues navigate and bring clarity to
the risks associated with conducting work in
specific jurisdictions. Subscribers can access the
scores of each state and province in CRP, along
with detailed information on P3 legislation and
the risk maps presented above in an interactive
format. Since P3-POINT™ is dynamic and adjusts
according to changes in the political and
regulatory environment, CRP will contain the most
updated maps displaying P3-POINT™’s results.
P3-POINT™ results can also assist contractors and
investors when determining whether or not to
pursue a P3 project in a particular jurisdiction.
Aon can produce more detailed reports that
explain the nuances of each factor, including
analysis of relevant statutes and original research
that comprise the findings of P3-POINT™.
Contractors and infrastructure investors will
find the P3-POINT™ a valuable tool as they
consider in which states and provinces to invest
time and resources in pursuing P3 projects.
P3-POINT™ offers a new way to look at P3 political
risk and goes beyond anecdotal P3 experience
by pinpointing the environmental factors most
likely to influence a P3 project. P3-POINT™
explains the relationship between a state/
province’s ability to procure P3 projects and
its willingness to do so. Using a weighted sum
model and detailed research, P3-POINT™ offers an
assessment of the P3 landscape that can empower
results for private bidders in the marketplace.
Contacts
Caitlin Ghoshal
Associate
Aon Infrastructure Solutions
+1.312.381.3055
caitlin.ghoshal@aon.com
Michael DeLio
Analyst
Aon Infrastructure Solutions
+ 1.312.381.3249
michael.delio@aon.com
Wahed Fidaali
Associate
Aon Infrastructure Solutions
+1.416.868.5518
wahed.fidaali@aon.ca
www.aon.com/risk-services/construction-services/infrastructure-solutions.jsp
Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
About Aon
Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is a leading global provider of
risk management, insurance brokerage and
reinsurance brokerage, and human resources
solutions and outsourcing services. Through its
more than 72,000 colleagues worldwide, Aon unites
to empower results for clients in over 120 countries
via innovative risk and people solutions. For further
information on our capabilities and to learn how we
empower results for clients, please visit: http://aon.
mediaroom.com.
© Aon plc 2016. All rights reserved.
The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of
a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of
any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide
accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable,
there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the
date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future.
No one should act on such information without appropriate profes-
sional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
www.aon.com

More Related Content

Similar to P3-Point-White-Paper-Final

Concordia_Index_Report_2016
Concordia_Index_Report_2016Concordia_Index_Report_2016
Concordia_Index_Report_2016Cheryl He
 
NPK Fertilizer Market.pdf
NPK Fertilizer Market.pdfNPK Fertilizer Market.pdf
NPK Fertilizer Market.pdfVrushali913094
 
Grant Thornton Media International Expansion Report
Grant Thornton Media International Expansion ReportGrant Thornton Media International Expansion Report
Grant Thornton Media International Expansion ReportSteve Leith
 
RAND_RRA597-1.pdf
RAND_RRA597-1.pdfRAND_RRA597-1.pdf
RAND_RRA597-1.pdfTeabeAmet
 
Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...
Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...
Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...Indalytics Advisors
 
P2 Final Cluster Report
P2 Final Cluster ReportP2 Final Cluster Report
P2 Final Cluster ReportDiana Kenney
 
08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper Leaders
08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper Leaders08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper Leaders
08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper LeadersTom Modestino
 
What drives demand generation ROI?
What drives demand generation ROI?What drives demand generation ROI?
What drives demand generation ROI?SurveyMonkey
 
Pre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdf
Pre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdfPre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdf
Pre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdfPradipmore26
 
Aircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdf
Aircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdfAircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdf
Aircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdfVrushali913094
 
Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)
Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)
Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)ResearchFox
 
Event management software market teaser
Event management software market teaserEvent management software market teaser
Event management software market teasersukiennong.vn
 
Truck Crane Market .pdf
Truck Crane Market .pdfTruck Crane Market .pdf
Truck Crane Market .pdfVrushali913094
 
K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...
K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...
K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...subishsam
 
K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...
K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...
K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...subishsam
 
Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...
Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...
Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...subishsam
 
Fr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_plan
Fr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_planFr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_plan
Fr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_planCCMA Strategies
 
Comments on Virginia P3 Risk Management Guidelines
Comments on Virginia P3 Risk Management GuidelinesComments on Virginia P3 Risk Management Guidelines
Comments on Virginia P3 Risk Management Guidelinesartba
 
Autosource-Whitepaper-Final
Autosource-Whitepaper-FinalAutosource-Whitepaper-Final
Autosource-Whitepaper-FinalColin Wright
 

Similar to P3-Point-White-Paper-Final (20)

Concordia_Index_Report_2016
Concordia_Index_Report_2016Concordia_Index_Report_2016
Concordia_Index_Report_2016
 
NPK Fertilizer Market.pdf
NPK Fertilizer Market.pdfNPK Fertilizer Market.pdf
NPK Fertilizer Market.pdf
 
Grant Thornton Media International Expansion Report
Grant Thornton Media International Expansion ReportGrant Thornton Media International Expansion Report
Grant Thornton Media International Expansion Report
 
RAND_RRA597-1.pdf
RAND_RRA597-1.pdfRAND_RRA597-1.pdf
RAND_RRA597-1.pdf
 
Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...
Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...
Trends and Activities of Fintech Companies in the US - Q42016 - Report Brief ...
 
P2 Final Cluster Report
P2 Final Cluster ReportP2 Final Cluster Report
P2 Final Cluster Report
 
08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper Leaders
08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper Leaders08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper Leaders
08.06.14 Assessing DC Recordkeeper Leaders
 
What drives demand generation ROI?
What drives demand generation ROI?What drives demand generation ROI?
What drives demand generation ROI?
 
Pre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdf
Pre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdfPre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdf
Pre made Pouch Packaging Machines Market.pdf
 
Aircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdf
Aircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdfAircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdf
Aircraft Carbon Brake Disc Market .pdf
 
Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)
Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)
Packaged Software Market - Global Outlook (2017-21)
 
Event management software market teaser
Event management software market teaserEvent management software market teaser
Event management software market teaser
 
Self Employment Asstance op_03-01
Self Employment Asstance op_03-01Self Employment Asstance op_03-01
Self Employment Asstance op_03-01
 
Truck Crane Market .pdf
Truck Crane Market .pdfTruck Crane Market .pdf
Truck Crane Market .pdf
 
K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...
K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...
K-12 Testing and Assessment Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook 2...
 
K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...
K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...
K-12 Arts and Crafts Material Market Competitive Research And Precise Outlook...
 
Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...
Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...
Airport Cargo Rack and Roller Deck Market Competitive Research And Precise Ou...
 
Fr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_plan
Fr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_planFr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_plan
Fr griffin sample_largeco_safety_communication_plan
 
Comments on Virginia P3 Risk Management Guidelines
Comments on Virginia P3 Risk Management GuidelinesComments on Virginia P3 Risk Management Guidelines
Comments on Virginia P3 Risk Management Guidelines
 
Autosource-Whitepaper-Final
Autosource-Whitepaper-FinalAutosource-Whitepaper-Final
Autosource-Whitepaper-Final
 

P3-Point-White-Paper-Final

  • 1. Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. Aon Risk Solutions Aon Infrastructure Solutions P3-POINT™ The Public-Private Partnerships Pursuit and Opportunity in Infrastructure Tool First Quarter 2016
  • 2. Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Political Risk and Public-Private Partnerships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 P3-POINT™ Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 P3-POINT™ Industry Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 P3-POINT™ Model and Scoring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 P3-POINT™ Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 P3-POINT™: 2016 Scores for the United States as of February 12, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for the United States as of February 12, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for Canada as of February 12, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Table of Contents
  • 3. Aon Risk Solutions 1 Executive Summary Political risk continues to be a key issue facing public-private partnership (P3) projects in the United States of America. Public-private partnerships are an innovative project delivery method that utilizes private finance and private sector discipline to design, construct and maintain public infrastructure assets. In the U.S., P3 projects are only possible if a state has the requisite enabling legislation allowing such projects. In Canada, legislation at the federal level (Canada Strategic Infrastructure Act) enables P3s generally and several provinces have legislation to authorize specific agencies to regulate P3 procurement. However, even if the requisite legislation is in place, private investors and contractors face the risk that their investment in pursuing a public infrastructure project could be affected by changing political preferences. In sum, political risk deeply influences P3 project likelihood and success at a time when the P3 model is increasingly being adopted by governments to address the demand for improved, new or better maintained infrastructure. Aon’s P3 Pursuit and Opportunity in Infrastructure Tool (P3-POINT™) is one of the only tools of its kind that assesses the “readiness” and “friendliness” of U.S. states and Canadian provinces for P3 procurements. Readiness is a measurement that describes the procurement, regulatory, and policy mechanisms that define a state’s or province’s ability to procure P3 projects. Friendliness is a measurement that describes states’ and provinces’ willingness and drive to successfully procure P3 projects. Using these two measurements, P3-POINT™ assesses the impact of the regulatory environment and political climate of U.S. states and Canadian provinces on their ability to successfully procure P3 projects. In developing P3-POINT™, Aon administered a survey that was shared with more than 1,000 P3 industry leaders. Survey recipients were senior decision-makers from major construction firms, legal, technical and risk advisors, and infrastructure investors. The survey asked for their views on the multiple issues that impact the bidding climate for P3s in the U.S. and Canada. Responses were anonymous and were to show industry perception around the key factors that make up a jurisdiction’s “readiness” and “friendliness” for P3s. The data also provided insight into the ways that various factors should be weighted in P3- POINT™, meaning that some factors were given more weight in the model than other factors. Aon then examined and scored each state and province based on the factors. After tabulating the scores, P3-POINT™ results illustrate the differences between the regulatory, political, and procurement climates for P3 projects in states and provinces. Aon’s P3-POINT™ highlights those states and provinces that are most likely to support a successful P3 procurement. P3-POINT™ results can be used as one of the tools that contractors and investors use when determining whether or not to pursue a P3 project in a particular jurisdiction. The following white paper discusses the methodology that Aon utilizes to assess political facing P3 projects and discusses the tool’s significant results and observations as of the first quarter in 2016. The report identifies those states and provinces that, in our opinion, are the most certain (from a political perspective) to have a successful procurement process for P3 projects and those states and provinces that are less certain to run a successful procurement process for P3 projects.1 1 The information contained in this report is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of a particular individual or entity. The observations made in this report are Aon’s opinion only. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
  • 4. 2 P3-POINT Tool Political Risk and Public-Private Partnerships Public-private partnerships (P3) have emerged as an innovative tool available to states and provinces needing to build or repair infrastructure. The P3 market has developed unevenly across the globe as more governments pass legislation needed to adopt the P3 model. In a mature market, such as in the United Kingdom, one in four infrastructure projects is procured through public-private partnerships. In 2015, Canada procured 36% of its infrastructure with the P3 model and the U.S. procured 1% of its infrastructure using P3.2 In the U.S., we anticipate 11 projects to close in 2016 with a capital value of USD$8.7 billion dollars. We anticipate that 21 projects will close in Canada in 2016, with a total capital value of USD$12.8 billon – the highest value of P3 projects to be completed in Canadian history.3 While deal flow and project activity vary widely, there continues to be an upward trend for the P3 model’s usage by public sector parties. However, the P3 marketplace suffers when projects are delayed or cancelled. Contractors, private investors, and other parties engaged in the P3 procurement process expend significant effort – both in terms of intellectual property and monetary investment – when bidding for P3 projects. Private parties become more hesitant to embark on a P3 pursuit in light of an elevated risk of project delay or cancellation, leading to a narrower competitive field from which governments can access during the procurement process. Delays and cancellations are often the result of political risk – changes in the political and regulatory environment. Aon’s P3 Pursuit and Opportunity in Infrastructure Tool (P3-POINT™) aims to help governments, contractors, and investors better understand the political and regulatory environment for P3, leading to more effective implementation of this procurement method. P3-POINT™ Methodology In P3-POINT™, political risk is evaluated using two measurements of the procurement environment: “readiness” and “friendliness”. “Readiness” is a measurement that describes the procurement, regulatory, and policy mechanisms that define a state’s or province’s ability to procure P3 projects. “Friendliness” is a measurement that describes the public sector’s willingness and drive to successfully procure P3 projects. Within these measurements, we identified a subset of 16 factors that capture the most important aspects of procurement “readiness” and political environment “friendliness.” The table below lists the sub-factors for the two primary measurements in the tool. 2 AIS analysis of capex data from IHS and Infra-Deals. February 2016 3 AIS analysis of project pipeline and anticipated capital spend. February 2016
  • 5. Aon Risk Solutions 3 Readiness Factors Friendliness Factors The state/province has established requisite legislation, allowing it to procure projects as P3s. The state/province has a political champion (governor) who is a strong supporter and advocate for P3s. The state/province has the ability to procure projects as P3s in both the transportation and “social” (vertical) infrastructure sectors. There is no existence of a known, organized opposition that actively opposes P3s projects in the state/province. Municipal entities have legislative authority to procure P3s without additional state approval or oversight. The state/province has executed P3 projects successfully in the past five years. The state/province has founded and runs a dedicated P3 procurement entity to manage P3 procurements. The state/province maintains a P3 project pipeline, or established list of projects that the state/province would like to procure as P3s. The P3 legislation stipulates the rules and restrictions related to tolling, including identifying the entities responsible for rate setting. The credit rating of the state/province is sufficient to support successful P3 procurements. The state/province’s P3 legislation permits for all forms of the P3 model and specifies the procurement timeframe and methods. The procurement approval procedures do not provide for a final approval from elected or appointed officials. The state/province has established standard tendering procedures for P3 projects. The state/province does not have a high reliance on federal funding for infrastructure projects. The state/province provides unsuccessful bidders with stipends to compensate them for their P3 pursuit costs. The state/province is not in a current election year. P3-POINT™ Industry Survey In developing P3-POINT™, Aon surveyed more than 1,000 P3 industry leaders from major construction firms, legal, technical and risk advisors, and infrastructure investors. The survey, distributed in the fourth quarter of 2015, asked for private sector leaders’ views on the multiple issues that impact the bidding climate for P3s in the U.S. and Canada. Approximately 18% of those surveyed responded and provided insight into the P3 procurement process. Seventy-percent of those surveyed are senior decision-makers from contracting firms; the remainder of those surveyed is a mix of investors and advisors active in the industry. The survey was designed to capture industry leaders’ opinions on influential factors that drive P3 success in the U.S. and Canada. Respondents were asked to indicate the sector in which their firm works (with the option of selecting multiple sectors). Sixty-eight percent of respondents work in the civil transportation infrastructure sector, 57% work in vertical or social infrastructure, 52% of respondents work in the water/waste sector, and 27% of respondents work in other private sector capacities (such as law or finance). Of those that responded, 93% indicated that it was very likely and likely that they would be pursuing a P3 project in the next 12 months. More than half (64%) of respondents specified that pursuing P3 procurements figured prominently into their growth plans. More than 70% of respondents work in the U.S., with the remainder of participants deriving from Canada. The demographic make-up of survey respondents show that the survey was taken by those most active in the P3 industry and conducting P3 pursuits in the U.S. and Canada (those jurisdictions analyzed by P3-POINT™).
  • 6. 4 P3-POINT Tool Responses were recorded anonymously and then aggregated to show industry perception around the key factors that make up a jurisdiction’s “readiness” and “friendliness” for P3s. The first question in the survey asked participants to indicate the importance of “readiness” or “friendliness” in impacting the government’s ability to run a procurement process for a P3 that results in financial close. Level of importance was measured on a scale from 1-10 for the participants to respond. The average scale score was 8.3 for “readiness” and 7.8 for “friendliness”. Next, we used a similar process to understand the importance of individual factors that make up the “readiness” and “friendliness” measurements. Respondents were asked 16 questions that related to both measurements and then asked to evaluate each factor’s level of importance on a rank from one to ten, one being the least important factor influencing P3 procurement and 10 being the most important factor influencing P3 procurement. We asked participants to rank factors relative to each other and prioritize tem. The average score for these questions were then calculated for each of the factors. The existence of legislation and the kinds of projects allowed under such legislation under the “readiness” measurement were ranked highest by survey respondents. Under the “friendliness” measurement, the government’s (successful) experience with P3 and the presence of a political champion were ranked highly as factors that evidence whether a state or province is “friendly” to P3s. Respondents also provided additional insight into the factors comprising “readiness” and “friendliness”. One respondent wrote: “Is the project critical to the government? Critical projects help create political will and enable the public to proceed through opposition, regardless of delivery model (P3 or otherwise).” The significance of the project in meeting community needs was often cited as a contributing component to likelihood of success in P3 procurement. Respondents also reflected on the importance of a political champion, or an elected official willing to expend political capital in support of P3 projects. A survey respondent noted that “The project must have a champion and a hook. The champion is the driver to break down the political obstacles that could derail the project. The hook is the need being met by the project itself. There needs to be a real or perceived need to drive these projects to completion.” Additionally, another respondent commented that “A political champion is critical, but they must be championing P3 to achieve realistic goals that are aligned with what P3 can actually deliver. The rhetoric and understanding of key officials is an important factor in determining whether or not a jurisdiction is ready, willing and able to procure a P3. It is also important to understand the budgeting and appropriations processes in a jurisdiction, especially for availability payment based transactions. If those processes are not aligned with the delivery method, then a successful
  • 7. Aon Risk Solutions 5 procurement will be quite challenging.” Through these comments, private industry leaders described the connections between the myriad of factors that make up the landscape for P3 project success. We also asked participants to identify additional factors that are important in the pursuit planning process. The table below lists some of the responses that participants offered. Several respondents observed that matching their firms’ strengths and capabilities with the P3 project at hand was another important factor influencing P3 pursuit choices. Out of the additional factors suggested by respondents, there was no clear statistical consensus on additional factors needed for the P3-POINT™ model. The table below shows some of the additional factors posed by survey respondents. Aggregate survey responses similarly showed that no one factor gained a very low ranking, so there was no unanimity on factors that should be excluded from the model. Consequently, we built a model around the two primary measurements (“readiness” and “friendliness”) and sixteen factors within those two measurements. What other factors do you evaluate before pursuing a P3 project in a state or province? (89 total answers) “Community view of the project” “Source of funds (how secure); Likelihood that [the project] award will go to a local group or other group with strong political power” “Project type, length, bidders, and site conditions” “The competition pursuing projects in the state or province; the ability for the Governor or Premier to have a veto of the project; whether the public in the province recognizes that the project satisfies a need; clarity of procurement process and evaluation” “Level of public support for P3 project itself” “Multiple levels of government involved can complicate a project” “Politics, politics, politics” “The experience of all the stakeholders” “Available government resources and time commitment” “Duration of tendering process, previous set-backs to P3 projects” “Government understanding of P3” “Whether [the government] legally be the counterparty in a P3” “Benchmark [Value for Money] VfM established and published upfront for private sector to beat” “Available funding from the state or province” “Cost of capital”
  • 8. 6 P3-POINT Tool P3-POINT™ Model and Scoring At the heart of the P3-POINT™ tool is a weighted sum model. This form of model provides a sensitivity analysis that allows us to look at the influence of multiple factors on the P3 procurement environment. Additionally, a weighted sum model recognizes that not every metric is measured equally. For instance, the “readiness” measurement received a 53% weight and “friendliness” received a 47% weight; therefore, “readiness” is weighted with slightly more importance than “friendliness”. Using the average responses from the industry survey, each measurement and factor are ranked from most to least influential in a P3 procurement success. In other words, the survey’s average responses were translated into a percent weight for each factor. This weight accordingly contributes to the importance assigned to each factor in the model. Within each “readiness” and “friendliness” measurement, we scored states/provinces on each factor using a standardized method on a 0 to 100 basis. Scoring states and provinces required a detailed examination of relevant legislation and a thorough study of environmental conditions, such as researching governors’ voting records on P3. Our proprietary P3 legislation database records current statutes and tracks pending legislative action related to P3. We used the legislation database to conduct an in-depth analysis of existing legislation relevant to P3. Ultimately, the scoring of each factor in each state and province – combined with the weight associated with each factor in each state and province and measurement – produces the P3-POINT™ results. After tabulating the scores, P3-POINT™ produces three scores: a “readiness” score, a “friendliness” score, and an aggregate Score. The aggregate score is the summation of the “readiness” score and “friendliness” score and these two measurements are also weighted according to survey results as noted above. All scores are then placed within equally distributed categories ranging from “Low Risk” to “High Risk”. The three scores are intended to illustrate the differences between the states and provinces on the regulatory and legislative, political, and procurement environments for P3s. 4 The information contained in this report are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
  • 9. Aon Risk Solutions 7 P3-POINT™ Results4 Aon’s P3-POINT™ identifies those states and provinces that, in our opinion, are the most certain for successful P3 procurements and those states and provinces that are the least certain for P3 projects. The map shown on page 11 shows states’ and provinces’ aggregate scores (total “readiness” and “friendliness” scores). The P3-POINT™ tool is dynamic – meaning that the results will change as the political climate adjusts. The results below describe political risk facing P3 procurement as of February 12, 2016. Colorado, Georgia, Texas and Maryland are the states, in our opinion, most certain to conduct successful P3 procurements. The legislation underpinning P3 in these states is comprehensive and detailed, offering greater security to bidders about the transparency and efficacy of the procurement process. Even in the face of overt political risk – such as the election of a new governor in Maryland – a strong foundation based on comprehensive legislation and sound procurement practices goes a long way in establishing a P3 procurement that should end in a successful financial close. Other notable features include Georgia’s recently passed legislation that broadens its ability to build infrastructure with P3, which outweighed the state’s previous cancellation of the West by Northwest Road Project. All of these states are either currently overseeing P3 procurements and/or have successfully managed P3 projects. Those that present the least certainty for procurement success –such as Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Rhode Island and New Mexico – are states without enabling legislation in place and do not have a P3 project track record to rely upon. Generally, rural states do not have enabling legislation and receive a greater share of federal dollars (relative to other states) for civil transportation projects. In our research, we found a statistical correlation between a low reliance on federal funding and the likelihood that the state has executed a P3 project in the past five years. States that are not certain to produce successful P3 procurements also do not have the population growth and rapid urbanization that often prompts state innovation in infrastructure. There are a number of surprising results revealed by applying P3-POINT™. New York, categorized as a “Not Certain” state, saw the financial close of the Goethals Bridge project. This procurement was made possible because Port Authority of New York New Jersey has the authority to pursue such a project without further state authorization. Additionally, New York/New Jersey has yet to see successful close of the LaGuardia Terminal Building P3 project in 2015. New York and New Jersey face a number of challenges that make it riskier to pursue P3 in the states, such as the lack of enabling legislation, lack of a political champion (New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christie vetoed P3 legislation in 2015), and lack of a P3 pipeline outside of the projects pursued by the Port Authority of New York New Jersey. Some states’ categorization as “Less Certain” – such as Illinois, Kentucky, and Nevada – reflects accurately the high profile cancellations or delays of various P3 projects in those states (the Illiana Expressway, Brent Spence Bridge, and Project NEON respectively). “Less Certain” states and provinces may have lower scores for other factors. For example, Kentucky’s HB 443 bill did not advance beyond Senate committee due to considerable opposition in the state legislature in 2015. While Illinois’ Governor Bruce Rauner has recently announced the intent to use P3 for the I-55 Managed Lanes project, the combination of other regulatory and environmental issues continue to place Illinois in the “Less Certain” categorization. “Less Certain” states often possess obstacles to successful P3 procurement, but these states may have a couple of key elements that could make P3 possible in the state.
  • 10. 8 P3-POINT Tool Michigan also shares a “Less Certain” categorization in P3-POINT™. Michigan successfully worked on several construction projects delivered through alternative delivery methods over the years. Most notably, the state closed on the Michigan Freeway Lighting project in 2015. The state DOT possesses the ability to procure projects by various means, but the state overall lacks P3- specific enabling legislation. Without legislation in place, the procurement process is difficult to anticipate and leads to greater uncertainty. Michigan is also an example of an environment that exemplifies the political risk facing P3 projects. In 2016, the state of Michigan and the government of Canada will embark on the Gordie Howe International Bridge P3 procurement. The procurement will be managed solely by the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority (WDBA), which is a not-for-profit entity that is owned by the Canadian government. While the border crossing project is bi-national in nature, it is revealing that the procurement is managed solely by a Canadian entity. Considering Michigan’s undefined political will and lack of P3-specific procurement processes, one may wonder if these risks may pose obstacles to the project. With a new Liberal government in place in 2016, the outgoing chairman of WDBA reflected on the risks facing the project, particularly the “reliance on Michigan to acquire most of the key properties on behalf of the WDBA and the state’s long-term political commitment to crossing agreements in the 30-year concession.5 Canada is generally seen as the crucible for P3 development in North America. With more than 20 years of experience and with the formation of entities such as PPP Canada, Infrastructure Ontario and Partnerships BC, the country has churned out P3 projects time and again. It may seem that the country is unified around P3 procurement, but P3-POINT™ indicates procurement certainty varies between the provinces. The major economic regions of Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec score have very high “readiness” scores. These provinces have a long and stable history of procuring P3 projects and this is reflected in the “readiness” scores. Other provinces such as, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Manitoba have not established a separate P3 procurement agency to manage their P3 project endeavors and are less ready. In general, these three Canadian provinces are more P3 “ready” than P3 “friendly” due to well-formed P3 opposition, a lack of published pipelines, and a lack of political champions. Canada’s success delivering P3 projects has not come without criticism. Between 2012 and 2015, Auditor Generals in Ontario, BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick released reports critical of the P3 model and questioning whether P3s deliver value for money. The AG reports led to significant debate in various provinces, with some provincial opposition parties calling for P3s to be scrapped entirely. Additionally, there is vocal union opposition against P3s across the country. Canada’s P3 friendliness also suffers because of uncertainty over future projects. Currently, only three provinces (Ontario, Quebec and BC) have a published pipeline of P3 projects. Lastly, outside of Ontario and Quebec, there is no visible political champion for P3s. In Alberta, for example, the newly elected NDP government, who has traditionally been opposed to P3s are now in power. This change in political climate poses additional uncertainty on the future of the P3 model in the province. While not “deal killers”, these elements simply make the provinces slightly less desirable than say, Ontario, in terms of attractiveness to P3 bidders. Several jurisdictions show promise for successful P3 project opportunities. As noted above, states with the lowest threat of political risk have P3 experience. California, Louisiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are categorized as certain – but not most certain – for 5 “Gordie Howe Bridge P3 Risks Unsettled.” Public Works Financing. December 2015.
  • 11. Aon Risk Solutions 9 P3 procurement a variety of reasons. Pennsylvania oversaw the successful financial close for the Pennsylvania Rapid Bridge Replacement Project in 2015; yet, the legislation in place in Pennsylvania is not as inclusive as other forms of P3 legislation across the United States. Louisiana, on the other hand, has P3 regulations that are broader and stipulate standard tendering procedures. The state is relatively new to the P3 marketplace and has introduced two new projects (Louisiana Parish Wastewater Facility and LSU Nicholson Gateway Project) in the past year, so its policies are yet to be tested fully. The P3-POINT™ tool permits viewers to look more closely at the procurement environments for P3 and enables bidders make more accurate decisions where they wish to invest. The scatterplot chart below reveals more about the relationship between the two primary measurements and the meaning of the aggregate score when translated into terms of certainty. The indicators for each state are colored along a scale to show the aggregate score (the weighted combination of “readiness” and friendliness” scores). The indicator for each state is also plotted on an axis, which displays both the “readiness” and “friendliness” scores. States that do not have enabling legislation – such as New Hampshire and New Mexico – are seen at the far left of the chart. States with enabling legislation and a broad set of procurement practices are located on the far right of the chart. We observed that most states earn a base level of points within the “friendliness” measurement despite a lack of P3 “readiness”. This is because some of the factors in the “friendliness” measurement are symptomatic of an overall “friendly” environment to infrastructure investment. For instance, most states and provinces have an investment grade credit rating of BBB- and above. Most states scored well in this area and an investment grade rating is conducive to not only P3 development, but also public infrastructure development overall. This explains why some states earn a number of points in this area. If P3 enabling legislation were in place, the model would then position these states as lower risk. Ultimately, the scatterplot shows there is a clear relationship between “readiness” and “friendliness”. States that are most likely to pursue P3 have a “friendliness” score greater than 70 and a “readiness” score greater than 60.
  • 12. 10 P3-POINT Tool P3-POINT™: 2016 Scores for the United States as of First Quarter 2016 Color indicates aggregate score for “Readiness” and “Friendliness” Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Ontario Quebec Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba British Columbia Prince Edward Island Saskatchewan Alberta Newfoundland and Labrador Puerto Rico 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 FriendlinessScore Readiness Score More Certain 80 - 100 Certain 60 - 80 Less Certain 40 - 60 Not Certain 20 - 40 Not Certain 0 - 20
  • 13. Aon Risk Solutions 11 P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for the United States as of First Quarter 2016 More Certain 80 - 100 Certain 60 - 80 Less Certain 40 - 60 Not Certain 20 - 40 Not Certain 0 - 20 P3-POINT™: 2016 Aggregate Scores for Canada as of First Quarter 2016 More Certain 80 - 100 Certain 60 - 80 Less Certain 40 - 60 Not Certain 20 - 40 Not Certain 0 - 20
  • 14. 12 P3-POINT Tool Conclusions Aon’s Public-Private Partnerships Pursuit and Opportunity in Infrastructure Tool (P3-POINT™) can be used to direct attention toward U.S. and Canadian jurisdictions that are likely to be the most stable and promising locations for P3 infrastructure investment. The tool’s results help P3 stakeholders better understand the overall political and legal environment for P3 in each state and province so that stakeholders can make informed decisions as to where they wish to invest their resources pursuing P3 projects. P3-POINT™ is accessible to Aon clients as a benefit of using the Aon Construction Risk Portal (CRP). CRP has become an essential tool to help clients and colleagues navigate and bring clarity to the risks associated with conducting work in specific jurisdictions. Subscribers can access the scores of each state and province in CRP, along with detailed information on P3 legislation and the risk maps presented above in an interactive format. Since P3-POINT™ is dynamic and adjusts according to changes in the political and regulatory environment, CRP will contain the most updated maps displaying P3-POINT™’s results. P3-POINT™ results can also assist contractors and investors when determining whether or not to pursue a P3 project in a particular jurisdiction. Aon can produce more detailed reports that explain the nuances of each factor, including analysis of relevant statutes and original research that comprise the findings of P3-POINT™. Contractors and infrastructure investors will find the P3-POINT™ a valuable tool as they consider in which states and provinces to invest time and resources in pursuing P3 projects. P3-POINT™ offers a new way to look at P3 political risk and goes beyond anecdotal P3 experience by pinpointing the environmental factors most likely to influence a P3 project. P3-POINT™ explains the relationship between a state/ province’s ability to procure P3 projects and its willingness to do so. Using a weighted sum model and detailed research, P3-POINT™ offers an assessment of the P3 landscape that can empower results for private bidders in the marketplace.
  • 15. Contacts Caitlin Ghoshal Associate Aon Infrastructure Solutions +1.312.381.3055 caitlin.ghoshal@aon.com Michael DeLio Analyst Aon Infrastructure Solutions + 1.312.381.3249 michael.delio@aon.com Wahed Fidaali Associate Aon Infrastructure Solutions +1.416.868.5518 wahed.fidaali@aon.ca www.aon.com/risk-services/construction-services/infrastructure-solutions.jsp
  • 16. Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. About Aon Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is a leading global provider of risk management, insurance brokerage and reinsurance brokerage, and human resources solutions and outsourcing services. Through its more than 72,000 colleagues worldwide, Aon unites to empower results for clients in over 120 countries via innovative risk and people solutions. For further information on our capabilities and to learn how we empower results for clients, please visit: http://aon. mediaroom.com. © Aon plc 2016. All rights reserved. The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate profes- sional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. www.aon.com