What does it mean to be a reserve currency? How did the U.S. dollar achieve reserve status? And what does the "exorbitant privilege" mean for the U.S.? NEPC's Jennifer Appel, CFA breaks it down in today's Topic Talks.
1. P R O P R I E T A R Y & C O N F I D E N T I A L
UNDERSTANDING RESERVE CURRENCY
JUNE 2021
Jennifer Appel, CFA, Research Consultant, Asset Allocation
TOPIC TALKS
2. 2
WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO BE A RESERVE
CURRENCY?
Notes: As recognized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Source: IMF
WORLD RESERVE CURRENCIES
U.S. Dollar (USD)
Euro (EUR)
Chinese Renminbi (CNY)
Japanese Yen (JPY)
British Pound (GBP)
Australian Dollar (AUD)
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Commonly Used in
Global Transactions
1
Significant Quantities
Held by Central Banks
2
Outsized Impact on
Global Markets
3
3. 3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
US Dollar
Euro
Japanese Yen
British Pound
Australian Dollar
Swiss Franc
Canadian Dollar
Chinese Renminbi
Other Currencies
WORLD FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES BY CURRENCY
Notes: Represents allocated reserves denominated in USD.
Sources: IMF COFER, FactSet
4. 4
GLOBAL CURRENCY IN TRADE FINANCE MARKET
Notes: As of April 30, 2021
Source: SWIFT
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other Currencies
IDR
JPY
CNY
EUR
USD
5. 5
HOW DID THE U.S. DOLLAR ACHIEVE RESERVE
STATUS?
Global trade facilitated
by exchange stability
Trade surplus countries
accumulated gold
Disrupted by the First
World War
European countries
lowered pegs or
abandoned gold
German hyperinflation
Global currency
devaluations “race to the
bottom”
U.S. dollar convertible to
gold
Other currencies
convertible to USD
International Monetary
Fund and World Bank
established
U.S. gold supply
inadequate to cover gold
conversions from USD
USD devalued in 1971,
then gold peg removed
Global currencies
government-backed and
float
USD-centric finance and
trade infrastructure
maintained
Floating Fiat
Regime
(1973 - Present)
Bretton Woods
Agreement
(1944 - 1971)
Modified Gold
Standard
(1918-1944)
Fixed Exchange
Gold Standard
(1870-1914)
6. 6
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES
UNDERSTANDING THE “EXORBITANT PRIVILEGE”*
Notes: *Former French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing used this terminology in the 1960s
The U.S. is able to impose
financial sanctions given its
widespread use in
international finance and
trade
This is a powerful tool to
reduce the ability of
companies or countries to
transact in USD and can
isolate them from the global
economy
Persistent demand for U.S.-
denominated assets
amplifies liquidity
Demand also allows for
larger and cheaper debt
issuance (“exporting
inflation”)
Geopolitical Power
Liquidity Benefit Safe-Haven Quality
The USD tends to rally
during times of market
volatility and uncertainty
This relationship persists
given the continued
resilience of the U.S.
economy and demand for
dollar-denominated assets
7. 7
POTENTIAL FUTURES
1. USD remains the global standard
2. Reserves and trades migrate towards
a market basket of multiple currencies
3. Sub-global trade zones hub around
U.S., China, and European currencies
4. System replaced by one world
currency and global central bank
5. Digital currency based on Blockchain
technology
Source: IMF
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
IMF SDR BASKET
USD DEM FRF EUR GBP JPY CNY
8. 8
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information on market indices was provided by sources external to NEPC. While NEPC has exercised reasonable professional care in
preparing this report, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of all source information contained within.
The goal of this report is to provide a basis for substantiating asset allocation recommendations. The opinions presented herein
represent the good faith views of NEPC as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time.
All investments carry some level of risk. Diversification and other asset allocation techniques do not ensure profit or protect against
losses.
NEPC DISCLOSURES
Editor's Notes
Has deep, liquid markets; can easily be exchanged; store-of-value
Before Bretton Woods, most countries relied on the gold standard. At the time, the US held the majority of the world’s gold supply. Bretton Woods allowed the world to slowly transition from a gold standard to a USD standard. Bretton Woods established the US as the global economic power. Unique position for the US since the country controls the printing of money.
Ease of borrowing: Because other countries want to hold a currency in reserve and use it for transactions, the higher demand means lower borrowing costs through depressed bond yields (most reserves are of government bonds).