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Fortune and Foresight
Within Niccolò Machiavelli’s book, The Prince, Machiavelli discusses a multitude of
themes such as expanding one’s state, glory, hypocrisy, the necessity of evil, and most
importantly, fortune. Machiavelli spends the first fifteen chapters of the book talking to Lorenzo
Medici or people of power about the nature of human beings and how princes should govern.
Around chapter fifteen the book begins to change in which Machiavelli breaks his teaches away
from Greek antiquity in regards to human nature and Christianity, and he begins to address a
different audience, attempting to convince individuals not in a position of power to take political
action. Between chapters twenty-four and twenty-five, Machiavelli seeks to master fortune,
which raises the question of how does one master fortune? Machiavelli structures his argument
by utilizing the last chapters of his book starting with chapter twenty-four all the way to the end.
Machiavelli believes that one should conquer fortune through the use of foresight.
When Machiavelli talks about fortune, he talks about it in the form of natural disasters,
human nature on the basis of human desires and variability, and death. As Machiavelli structures
his argument on how to conquer fortune in chapter twenty-four, “Why the Princes of Italy Have
Lost Their States,” Machiavelli starts with historical examples on how people have failed to
conquer fortune. He uses examples of Italian princes that have lost their estates, saying that the
Princes lost their estates because they had “…a common defect as to arms…had a hostile people
or if they had friendly people, did not know how to secure themselves from the great” (Prince,
96).
Through their neglect to fight and lack of preparation, their kingdoms have fallen to
ruins. Instead of this destruction coming at the expense of bad luck, Machiavelli believes that
this came at the Italian Princes’ own expense saying that the princes “may not accuse fortune

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when they have lost them afterwards but their own indolence; for, never having thought that
quiet times could change (which is common defect of men, not to take account of the storm
during the calm), when later the times became adverse, they thought of fleeing and not of
defending themselves” (Prince, 97). Humanity’s lack of anticipation and preparedness are what
ultimately lead to the demise of the individual and a civilization. In chapter twenty-five,
Machiavelli defines fortune in chapter twenty-five as a “violent river…flood the plains, ruins
trees and buildings…” (Prince, 98). Examining Machiavelli’s approach to fortune, it seems as if
fortune determines half of human affairs, while there is a small fraction that humans themselves
have the free will or ability to determine the outcome. However, because of humanity’s lack of
anticipation and preparedness, Machiavelli proposes that humans need foresight to protect
themselves from the dangers of fortune. Therefore, human beings have the capability to control
their fate, but their control is not definite unless foresight is applied.
Machiavelli believes that foresight is key to conquering fortune, specifically through the
use of science and adaptation. In terms of science and technology, Machiavelli believes in
utilizing both to counteract the dangers of fortune. As part of his argument, Machiavelli
indirectly attacks the Church’s teachings on the basis of fortune and God. He states, “It is not
unknown to me that many have held and hold the opinion that worldly things are so governed by
fortune and God, that men cannot correct them with their prudence…this they might judge that
one need not sweat much over thing but let oneself be governed by chance…Nonetheless, so that
our free will not be eliminated…fortune is arbiter of half our actions…” (Prince, 98). The
Church is preaching that since God is the determinant of everyone’s fortune, people should just
be content about the outcome of chance and what happens to them. In contrast, Machiavelli is
proposing that people’s free will can be protected from being eliminated or governed, if they do

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not sit by and allow the dangers of fortune to ruin lives and regimes. After ridiculing Christianity
and its pacifist teachings, Machiavelli proposes the will of action and innovation to shield against
foresight. For example, he talks about how during quiet times man should prepare to take on
fortune by making dams, dikes and canals to protect man from this metaphorical imagery of the
violent river of fortune. If these steps are not taken, Machiavelli says the result is “It happens
similarly with fortune, which demonstrates her power where virtue has not been put in order to
resist her and therefore turns her impetus where she knows that dams and dikes have not been
made to contain her” (Prince, 98-99).
On the surface, Machiavelli proposes that fortune can be conquered through science and
the invention of technologies that protects one’s regime and civilization, but at a deeper level
within the text, he is speaking to the individual. He is making a statement on why there should be
necessary action to prepare during quiet times for fortune. Fortune should be prepared for during
quiet times so that when the opportunity for fortune wreaks havoc, the damage would not be
horrific. Machiavelli’s foresight not only speaks to a prince, but it is also a call to individuals to
utilize foresight to expand their state while avoiding the dangers which hinder one’s state
because of fortune and chance. This is where Machiavelli believes people should adapt.
After the mastery of nature and fortune through science, Machiavelli believes that
adaptation is another way in which people could protect themselves from fortune. To
Machiavelli, adaption ultimately achieves a sense of happiness for people. He states, “I believe,
further, that he is happy who adapts his mode of proceeding to the qualities of the times; and
similarly, he is unhappy whose procedure is in disaccord with the times” (Prince, 99). This can
be applicable to both regimes and an individual. Those who cannot conform or change for the
present situation at hand will never be happy because they will always find themselves having to

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defend their distinct ways against traditions or customs of the mass population who thinks
differently. Ultimately, those who are unhappy will always have to be cautious.
Without the ability to adapt, a person is vulnerable to the destruction of fortune, but for
those who do adapt, those people are left happy because they don’t have to defend their riches
and glory. Their adaptation solidifies and secures their happiness for the time being, but if times
continue to change, these people must continue to adapt to protect themselves from fortune. For
those who are happy, they should strive to act impetuously. This is true insofar as Machiavelli
believes that the impetuous person is better than the cautious person. He states, “And so the
cautious man, when it is time to come to impetuosity, does not know how to do it, hence comes
to ruin; for if he would change his nature with the times and with affairs, his fortune would not
change” (Prince, 100). According to Machiavelli, not only is fortune dangerous, but the inability
to change with the times is just as dangerous because it’s exposing someone to their demise by
fortune. So, Machiavelli proves that these two methods of utilizing science to prepare one’s self
and adaptation are successful in protecting one’s self from fortune.
Overall in the last two chapters of Machiavelli’s book, he seeks to conquer fortune
because he describes fortune as a violent river and uses many historical examples to show the
destruction of fortune. Machiavelli sees fortune as arbiter of half of life, but sees humanity as
having control over the other half through free will. In order to conquer fortune, people must use
their free will by exercising foresight. He points out two types of foresight, which are the
utilization of science and adaptation. By letting go of the Church’s passive teachings of letting
fortune and chance take their course in people’s lives as it’s ordained by God, Machiavelli
explains that people should not follow this but instead have a reactionary response instead of idly
sitting by. This means that people should either use science to protect themselves, or on an

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individualistic level, people should adapt to the times in order to maintain self-preservation. The
only remaining questions that arise from Machiavelli’s argument are What if people don’t believe
that the norms or customs of the time are worth adapting to? How should one go about forcefully
changing their self to adapt at that point or should they just embrace destruction at that point?