No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)
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A short talk introducing #NoEstimates, exploring the Why, What and How behind the movement. It will be then followed by the #NoEstimates game which introduce a practical example on how it can be applied The #NoEstimates game is an engaging group activity about the power of using data to forecast. It gives practitioners and stakeholders a better way to understand and allow for the effects of variation on their project planning efforts.
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No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)
- 2. #NoEstimates The What, Why & How Mark So Daniel Prager @agilejitsu The #NoEstimates Game
- 3. think sharp elabor8 Common Perceptions of Estimates?
- 4. think sharp elabor8 The problems with estimates? Solidifies ignorance Predicting something when we know the least about it Raises unrealistic expectations Creates expectation that we will deliver to the estimates Wastes capacity When estimates are wrong – it delivers no real business value Reduces trust They can lead to mistrust when
- 5. think sharp elabor8 FACT Only 12% of projects delivered on time or on budget Source: Chaos report 2014
- 6. think sharp elabor8 Why are we still doing estimates? • The need to obtain funding • Set release dates • Understand resourcing requirements • Align other business functions, e.g. • Marketing • Training • Establish the ‘how much scope can I fit into X
- 7. think sharp elabor8 We are not alone • #NoEstimates is a movement that explores alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. • That is, ways to make decisions with “NoEstimates”. • Twitter movement initially started by
- 8. think shar The #NoEstimates Game • http://agile-jitsu.blogspot. • http://skillfire.co/project Credit: Adrian Fittolani
- 9. think sharp elabor8 What can we learn from #NoEstimates? • Uncertainty is part of life for project delivery • You cannot ignore it • Incorporate uncertainties into your planning • Use data gathered from previous experience • Much of the time spent estimating is better spent on actually
- 10. think sharp elabor8 So how do we actually do that? • Use pilot projects to discover the unknown • Time box effort • Slice work into smaller pieces (~ few days per story? ) • Seed funding to deliver small chunks of working product • Build, measure & learn • Capture cycle time and use modelling to forecast schedules
- 12. think sharp elabor8 Source & Inspirations • http://scrumage.com/blog/2015/09/agile-project-forecasting-the-monte- carlo-method/ • https://neilkillick.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/noestimates-is-neither-the- destination-nor-the-journey/ • http://agile-jitsu.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-noestimates-game.html • http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2016/05/how-to-make-a- decision-in-the-presence-of-uncertainty.html • http://scrumandkanban.co.uk/no-estimates/ • http://ronjeffries.com/xprog/articles/the-noestimates-movement/ • https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/white-papers/chaos-report.pdf
- 13. think sharp elabor8 Thank You