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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Today, you will learn... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Once upon a time
Here's how it's meant to work Low interest rate X Higher interest rate Y Y – X = Gross Profit (ie – before other costs like staff)
Let's look at incentives... Wants to lend to a stable bank, but actually the Government will pick up most of the risk of bank collapse Only wants to lend to buyers who will make payments each month. Wants to get money back if they have to repossess
... and risks A few customers might default, but negotiation, or repossession kept things working (plus, the profit was enough anyway)
[object Object],[object Object]
Timing... Depositors want to be able to get at their cash at any time Want to repay their mortgage over a long period (25 years)
[object Object],[object Object]
Money in = Money available to lend Piffle
Money available to lend
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How to structure the finance industry for fun and profit (Part 1)
Acronym Soup ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
How to structure the finance industry for fun and profit (Part 2)
What's a CDO? ,[object Object],?
If a borrower defaults, who loses and who gains? aka “Moral Hazard for Dummies”
Underpinnings..... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Consequences... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Then.... ,[object Object],[object Object]
No more CDO buyers... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Buyers Offer Less, leads to... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
... and, for the banks... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Casualties... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bank Closure (USA) - 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MegaBanks in trouble ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],$12 trillion between them ... $12,000,000,000,000
What to expect – Q4 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where do house prices need to be? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Elephants in the Room ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Important things to learn... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Credit Crunch September 2008

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3. Once upon a time
  • 4. Here's how it's meant to work Low interest rate X Higher interest rate Y Y – X = Gross Profit (ie – before other costs like staff)
  • 5. Let's look at incentives... Wants to lend to a stable bank, but actually the Government will pick up most of the risk of bank collapse Only wants to lend to buyers who will make payments each month. Wants to get money back if they have to repossess
  • 6. ... and risks A few customers might default, but negotiation, or repossession kept things working (plus, the profit was enough anyway)
  • 7.
  • 8. Timing... Depositors want to be able to get at their cash at any time Want to repay their mortgage over a long period (25 years)
  • 9.
  • 10. Money in = Money available to lend Piffle
  • 12.
  • 13. How to structure the finance industry for fun and profit (Part 1)
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. How to structure the finance industry for fun and profit (Part 2)
  • 17.
  • 18. If a borrower defaults, who loses and who gains? aka “Moral Hazard for Dummies”
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.