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Potential Supply of
Natural Gas in the
United States

Report of the
Potential Gas Committee
(December 31, 2012)



Washington, D.C.
April 9, 2013
Potential Gas Committee
• 100 Volunteer geoscientists & petroleum engineers

• Biennial assessments–since 1964–of the
   Technically Recoverable U.S. natural gas
   endowment


PGC Resources + EIA Proved Reserves =
  Potential Future Gas Supply


Learn more about the PGC: http://www.potentialgas.org

          Potential Gas Agency

          Colorado School of Mines
Organization of Potential Gas Studies
Potential Gas Committee
         Natalie H. Reagan
    President/General Chairman               Potential Gas Agency
         Larry M. Gring                        Colorado School of Mines
   Chairman, Board of Directors                 (supported by industry)
    Develops assessment policy and             Dr. John B. Curtis, Director
procedures, directs and manages studies
    of natural gas resources, recruits
                                           Approves criteria and methods, insures
personnel and supervises work, prepares
                                          maintenance of standards and objectivity,
    reports on natural gas resources.
                                          reviews and evaluates reports, publishes
                                             final assessments of gas resources.



              Potential Gas Agency

              Colorado School of Mines
Proved Reserves                    vs   Resources

• Known gas reservoirs                   • Discovered

• Existing economic                      • Undiscovered
  conditions
                                         • Effects of technology
• Existing operating
  conditions



         Potential Gas Agency

         Colorado School of Mines
Dynamics of Resource Appraisal
Natural Gas Resource Assessment of the
Potential Gas Committee, 2012 (mean values)

  Traditional Gas Resources                            2,225.6 Tcf
  Coalbed Gas Resources                                     158.2 Tcf
  Total U.S. Gas Resources                             2,383.9 Tcf
  Proved Reserves (EIA)*                                    304.6 Tcf

  Future Gas Supply                                    2,688.5 Tcf
                                                     Totals are subject to rounding.
      Potential Gas Agency       * Latest available value (dry gas), year-end 2010


      Colorado School of Mines
PGC Resource Assessments, 1990-2012
Total Potential Gas Resources (Mean Values)




      Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
PGC Resource Assessment 2012
  Total Traditional
  Resources (mean values)
  by category




Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
PGC Resource Assessment 2012
  Total Traditional
  Resources (mean values)
  by category




 Probable (existing fields) 708.5 Tcf
 Possible (new fields)       952.3 Tcf
 Speculative (frontier)      558.7 Tcf
  Total*                   2,225.6 Tcf
 * Separately aggregated value.



Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
PGC Resource Assessment 2012
  Total Coalbed Gas
  Resources (mean values)
  by category




Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
PGC Resource Assessment 2012
  Total Coalbed Gas
  Resources (mean values)
  by category




 Probable (existing fields) 14.2 Tcf
 Possible (new fields)      48.3 Tcf
 Speculative (frontier)     95.8 Tcf
  Total*                   158.2 Tcf
 * Separately aggregated value.



Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
Regional Resource Comparison




 Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
Regional Resource Assessment
                                                    U.S. Traditional (mean)*             2,225.6 Tcf
                                                    U.S. Coalbed (mean)*                   158.2 Tcf
                                                    Grand Total U.S. (mean)              2,383.9 Tcf



                              421.3
                                51.9
       54.4
         2.6                                               20.8
                                                           11.6
                                                                             741.3
                                                                               17.3              20.8
                                                                                             Traditional
                                                                                           Gas Resources,
                                                                                            mean value
                                         269.5
                                                                                                 11.6
                                              8.0                                           Coalbed Gas

      193.8                                           521.0                                  Resources,
                                                                                             “most likely”
      57.0                                              3.4                                  value; Area
                                                                                            mean values
                                                                                            not computed

Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)                     * Separately aggregated from all province data.
Regional Resource Assessment
Summary
                                                  Traditional Gas         Traditional
                                                    Resources             Proportion
    PGC Area                                     (Mean Value, Tcf)        of Total US

    Atlantic                                         741.3                 33.4%
    Gulf Coast                                       521.0                 23.4%
    Rocky Mountain                                   421.3                 19.0%
    Mid-Continent                                    269.5                 12.1%
    Pacific                                           54.4                   2.5%
    North Central                                     20.8                   0.9%
     Total Lower 48 U.S.*                          2,011.4
    Alaska                                           193.8                   8.7%
     Total U.S. Traditional*                       2,225.6
   Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)         * Separately aggregated total. Area
                                                      means are not arithmetically additive.
Influences on Future Gas Supply

            Environmental          Skilled
               Issues             Workforce
Resource
                                                Technology
  Base
                   Sufficient Supply to
                     Meet Demand
                                                 Pipeline
Gas Price
                                                 Capacity

            Regulatory &            Rig
            Land Issues          Availability
Potential Gas Agency

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Slides: Potential Supply of Natural Gas in the United States - April 9, 2013

  • 1. Potential Supply of Natural Gas in the United States Report of the Potential Gas Committee (December 31, 2012) Washington, D.C. April 9, 2013
  • 2. Potential Gas Committee • 100 Volunteer geoscientists & petroleum engineers • Biennial assessments–since 1964–of the Technically Recoverable U.S. natural gas endowment PGC Resources + EIA Proved Reserves = Potential Future Gas Supply Learn more about the PGC: http://www.potentialgas.org Potential Gas Agency Colorado School of Mines
  • 3. Organization of Potential Gas Studies Potential Gas Committee Natalie H. Reagan President/General Chairman Potential Gas Agency Larry M. Gring Colorado School of Mines Chairman, Board of Directors (supported by industry) Develops assessment policy and Dr. John B. Curtis, Director procedures, directs and manages studies of natural gas resources, recruits Approves criteria and methods, insures personnel and supervises work, prepares maintenance of standards and objectivity, reports on natural gas resources. reviews and evaluates reports, publishes final assessments of gas resources. Potential Gas Agency Colorado School of Mines
  • 4. Proved Reserves vs Resources • Known gas reservoirs • Discovered • Existing economic • Undiscovered conditions • Effects of technology • Existing operating conditions Potential Gas Agency Colorado School of Mines
  • 6. Natural Gas Resource Assessment of the Potential Gas Committee, 2012 (mean values) Traditional Gas Resources 2,225.6 Tcf Coalbed Gas Resources 158.2 Tcf Total U.S. Gas Resources 2,383.9 Tcf Proved Reserves (EIA)* 304.6 Tcf Future Gas Supply 2,688.5 Tcf Totals are subject to rounding. Potential Gas Agency * Latest available value (dry gas), year-end 2010 Colorado School of Mines
  • 7. PGC Resource Assessments, 1990-2012 Total Potential Gas Resources (Mean Values) Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
  • 8. PGC Resource Assessment 2012 Total Traditional Resources (mean values) by category Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
  • 9. PGC Resource Assessment 2012 Total Traditional Resources (mean values) by category Probable (existing fields) 708.5 Tcf Possible (new fields) 952.3 Tcf Speculative (frontier) 558.7 Tcf Total* 2,225.6 Tcf * Separately aggregated value. Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
  • 10. PGC Resource Assessment 2012 Total Coalbed Gas Resources (mean values) by category Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
  • 11. PGC Resource Assessment 2012 Total Coalbed Gas Resources (mean values) by category Probable (existing fields) 14.2 Tcf Possible (new fields) 48.3 Tcf Speculative (frontier) 95.8 Tcf Total* 158.2 Tcf * Separately aggregated value. Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
  • 12. Regional Resource Comparison Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013)
  • 13. Regional Resource Assessment U.S. Traditional (mean)* 2,225.6 Tcf U.S. Coalbed (mean)* 158.2 Tcf Grand Total U.S. (mean) 2,383.9 Tcf 421.3 51.9 54.4 2.6 20.8 11.6 741.3 17.3 20.8 Traditional Gas Resources, mean value 269.5 11.6 8.0 Coalbed Gas 193.8 521.0 Resources, “most likely” 57.0 3.4 value; Area mean values not computed Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013) * Separately aggregated from all province data.
  • 14. Regional Resource Assessment Summary Traditional Gas Traditional Resources Proportion PGC Area (Mean Value, Tcf) of Total US Atlantic 741.3 33.4% Gulf Coast 521.0 23.4% Rocky Mountain 421.3 19.0% Mid-Continent 269.5 12.1% Pacific 54.4 2.5% North Central 20.8 0.9% Total Lower 48 U.S.* 2,011.4 Alaska 193.8 8.7% Total U.S. Traditional* 2,225.6 Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2013) * Separately aggregated total. Area means are not arithmetically additive.
  • 15. Influences on Future Gas Supply Environmental Skilled Issues Workforce Resource Technology Base Sufficient Supply to Meet Demand Pipeline Gas Price Capacity Regulatory & Rig Land Issues Availability