A monthly report on how productive (or effective) drilling in six major U.S. shale plays has been over the previous 30 days. This is the report for November 2013.
1. Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information
Administration
November 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
For key tight oil and shale gas regions
Bakken
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
The six regions analyzed in this report accounted for nearly 90% of domestic oil production
growth and virtually all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-12.
Contents
Year-over-year summary
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Explanatory notes
Sources
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2. Year-over-year summary
November 2013
drilling data through October projected
production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
New-well oil production per rig
New-well gas production per rig
barrels/day
thousand cubic feet/day
December-2012
December-2013
December-2012
1,000
December-2013
6,000
5,000
750
4,000
3,000
500
2,000
250
1,000
0
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Bakken
Permian
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Legacy oil production change
Niobrara
Permian
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
Marcellus
million cubic feet/day
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
0
(50)
(10)
(100)
(20)
(150)
(30)
(200)
(40)
(250)
(300)
(50)
(350)
(60)
(400)
December-2012
December-2013
(450)
(70)
December-2012
December-2013
Indicated monthly change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Indicated monthly change in gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
December-2012
December-2012
December-2013
December-2013
500
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Bakken
Permian
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Oil production
Niobrara
Permian
Natural gas production
thousand barrels/day
Marcellus
million cubic feet/day
December-2012
December-2012
December-2013
2,000
12,000
1,600
December-2013
10,000
8,000
1,200
6,000
800
4,000
400
2,000
0
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
2
3. Bakken
November 2013
drilling data through October projected
production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
496
481
Oil
+15
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
December
November
barrels/day
Bakken
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
November
Bakken
New-well gas production per rig
200
400
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
250
rig count
Gas
+8
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
3,000
new-well oil production per rig
500
470
462
December
150
300
250
new-well gas production per rig
2,400
200
rig count
150
1,800
100
200
50
100
0
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100
1,200
50
600
0
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
Bakken
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Bakken
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(10)
(10)
(20)
(20)
(30)
(30)
(40)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(50)
(70)
2007
(60)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bakken
Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Bakken
Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
100
million cubic feet/day
100
+89
+26
-63
50
-57
+27
50
0
+84
0
Nov
976
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Bakken
Oil production
Net
change
Dec
1,002
Mbbl/d
Oil +26
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,000
Nov
1,081
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Bakken
Natural gas production
Net
change
Dec
1,108
MMcf/d
Gas +27
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
6,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
0
2007
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3
4. Eagle Ford
November 2013
drilling data through October projected
production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
413
405
Oil
+8
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
December
November
barrels/day
Eagle Ford
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
Eagle Ford
New-well gas production per rig
150
200
100
100
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Rig count
rigs
3,000
200
300
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
250
400
Gas
+1
thousand cubic feet/day
300
rig count
0
2007
November
1,214
1,213
350
new-well oil production per rig
500
December
350
new-well gas production per rig
2,400
300
rig count
250
200
1,800
150
1,200
100
600
0
2007
50
0
2008
2009
2010
Eagle Ford
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Eagle Ford
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(70)
(80)
(90)
2007
2008
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(50)
(100)
(150)
(200)
(250)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(300)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Eagle Ford
Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Eagle Ford
Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
+340
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Nov
Production
6,055
from
MMcf/d
new wells
+116
+33
-83
100
50
0
Nov
1,252
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Eagle Ford
Oil production
Net
change
Dec
1,285
Mbbl/d
Oil +33
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,400
-239
Legacy
production
change
Eagle Ford
Natural gas production
million cubic feet/day
month over month
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
Dec
6,156
MMcf/d
6,000
1,000
Net
change
Gas +101
million cubic feet/day
7,000
1,200
+101
1,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
5. Haynesville
November 2013
drilling data through October projected
production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
45
44
Oil
+1
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
December
November
barrels/day
Haynesville
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
1,000
December
November
5,041
5,018
Gas
+23
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Haynesville
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
300
250
400
200
0
2007
150
2,000
100
50
600
3,000
100
rig count
4,000
150
800
5,000
200
new-well oil production per rig
thousand cubic feet/day
6,000
1,000
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
300
new-well gas production per rig
250
rig count
0
2007
200
0
2008
2009
2010
Haynesville
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Haynesville
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(100)
(200)
(1)
(300)
(400)
(2)
(500)
(600)
(3)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(700)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Haynesville
Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Haynesville
Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
250
2.0
+2
+1
-1
1.5
-50
0.0
-101
50
0.5
-332
150
1.0
+231
-150
Nov
57
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Haynesville
Oil production
Net
change
Dec
58
Mbbl/d
Oil +1
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
2,000
Nov
6,761
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Haynesville
Natural gas production
Net
change
Dec
6,661
MMcf/d
Gas -101
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
12,000
10,000
1,600
8,000
1,200
6,000
800
4,000
400
0
2007
2,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5
6. Marcellus
November 2013
drilling data through October projected
production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
40
38
Oil
+2
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
December
November
barrels/day
Marcellus
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
1,000
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
new-well oil production per rig
800
rig count
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
December
November
6,038
5,920
Gas
+118
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Marcellus
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
6,000
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
new-well gas production per rig
4,800
rig count
3,600
2,400
1,200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Marcellus
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Marcellus
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(40)
(1)
(80)
(120)
(2)
(160)
(3)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(200)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Marcellus
Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Marcellus
Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
4.0
million cubic feet/day
600
+4
+3
-1
3.0
+593
-182
+411
400
2.0
200
1.0
0.0
0
Nov
44
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Marcellus
Oil production
Net
change
Dec
47
Mbbl/d
Oil +3
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
2,000
Nov
12,525
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Marcellus
Natural gas production
Net
change
Dec
12,936
MMcf/d
Gas +411
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
14,000
12,000
1,600
10,000
1,200
8,000
800
6,000
4,000
400
0
2007
2,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6
7. Niobrara
November 2013
drilling data through October projected
production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
317
311
Oil
+6
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
December
November
barrels/day
Niobrara
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
November
995
1,049
new-well oil production per rig
rig count
Niobrara
New-well gas production per rig
120
60
200
40
100
20
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Rig count
rigs
3,000
80
300
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
100
400
Gas
-54
thousand cubic feet/day
140
500
0
2007
December
140
120
100
2,400
80
1,800
60
1,200
600
0
2007
40
new-well gas production per rig
20
rig count
2008
2009
0
2010
Niobrara
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Niobrara
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(5)
(50)
(10)
(100)
(15)
(150)
(20)
(200)
(25)
2007
(250)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Niobrara
Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Niobrara
Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
100
+30
+7
-23
30
+95
-152
-57
50
20
0
10
-50
0
-100
Nov
280
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Niobrara
Oil production
Net
change
Dec
287
Mbbl/d
Oil +7
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,000
Nov
4,632
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Niobrara
Natural gas production
Net
change
Dec
4,575
MMcf/d
Gas -57
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
6,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
0
2007
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
7
8. Permian
November 2013
drilling data through October projected
production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
79
79
Oil
0
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
December
November
barrels/day
Permian
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
176
175
December
November
Gas
+1
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Permian
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
600
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
500
3,000
400
400
2,400
300
300
1,800
300
200
200
1,200
200
100
100
600
100
new-well oil production per rig
500
rig count
0
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
600
new-well gas production per rig
0
2007
500
rig count
400
0
2008
2009
2010
Permian
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Permian
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
million cubic feet/day
0
(5)
(20)
(10)
(40)
(15)
(60)
(20)
(80)
(25)
(30)
(100)
(35)
(120)
(40)
2007
(140)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Permian
Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Permian
Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
80
+35
+0
-35
30
+78
-78
+0
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
Nov
1,340
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Permian
Oil production
Net
change
Dec
1,340
Mbbl/d
Oil +0
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Nov
5,045
MMcf/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Permian
Natural gas production
million cubic feet/day
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2007
2008
2009
Net
change
Dec
5,046
MMcf/d
Gas +0
million cubic feet/day
month over month
2010
2011
2012
2013
8
9. Explanatory notes
November 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along
with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural
gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for six key fields. EIA’s
approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is
completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that.
Monthly additions from one average rig
Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIA’s estimate of an average rig’s1 contribution to
production of oil and natural gas from new wells.2 The estimation of new-well production per rig uses
several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the
region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.3 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top
header. The month-over-month change is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to
highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue).
New-well oil/gas production per rig
Charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of
total drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes.
Legacy oil and natural gas production change
Charts present EIA’s estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the
new wells. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the
direction of the change. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly
decline in any given month, resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply
returns to normal levels.
Projected change in monthly oil/gas production
Charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total
new-well production is offset by the anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in
production. The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect
the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or
economic issues.
Oil/gas production
Charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This
production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not
immediately available, EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas
production and the corresponding legacy change.
Footnotes:
1. The monthly average rig count used in this report is calculated from weekly data on total oil and gas rigs
reported by Baker Hughes
2. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to
the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the calculation.
3. Rig count data lag production data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new
wells beginning production in a given month is the count of rigs in operation two months earlier.
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
9
10. Sources
November 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
The data used in the preparation of this report come from the following sources. EIA is solely
responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions.
Drilling Info (http://www.drillinginfo.com) Source of production, permit, and spud data for counties
associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate new wells spudded and completed
throughout the United States.
Baker Hughes (http://www.bakerhughes.com) Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin.
North Dakota Oil and Gas Division (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas) Source of well production, permit,
and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota
Railroad Commission of Texas (http://www.rrc.state.tx.us) Source of well production, permit, and
completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
(https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Welcome.aspx) Source
of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in
Pennsylvania
West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (http://www.dep.wv.gov/oil-andgas/Pages/default.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties
associated with this report in West Virginia
Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (http://cogcc.state.co.us) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado
Wyoming Oil and Conservation Commission (http://wogcc.state.wy.us ) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming
Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.louisiana.gov) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
10