Tổng quan thi trường du lịch Việt Nam 2023

1. VIETNAM TOURISM
OUTLOOK 2023

2. “Vietnam Tourism Outlook 2023” report is a publication belonging
to The Outbox Company. All rights reserved. Nopartofthispublication
maybe reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any
means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or
mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of The
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whole or part is prohibited.
Established in 2017, The Outbox Company is a travel market intelligence com-
ĄœéĬƎÎí´ēĊÖéÏƎíéƎníēďÔƎ"œĊďƎĊÖœƎǁƎďÔ½Ǝhœ´ÖŐ´ƔƎ³œĊ½¹ƎÖéƎ‰Ö½ďéœèƓƎQēćƎèÖĊĊÖíéƎ
is to embrace data-driven making-decision and promote the development of
the tourism industry thereby propelling the business to new heights while
èœãÖéÏƎÖďƎèíć½Ǝœ¹œĄďœ³ä½ƎďíƎœéƎ½ĥ½ćƣ´ÔœéÏÖéÏƎ³ēĊÖé½ĊĊƎäœé¹Ċ´œĄ½Ɠ
ďƎQēď³íīƔƎĦ½Ǝ³½äÖ½ĥ½Ǝēé¹½ćĊďœé¹ÖéÏƎďćœĥ½ä½ćĊƎÖĊƎďÔ½Ǝã½ĬƎďíƎĊē´´½ĊĊƓƎ3íćƎœääƎ
¹½ĊďÖéœďÖíéĊƎœé¹Ǝ³ēĊÖé½ĊĊ½ĊƔƎēéäí´ãÖéÏƎďćœĥ½ä½ćĊƹƎÖéĊÖÏÔďĊƎĦÖääƎÏœÖéƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎ
´íèĄ½ďÖďÖĥ½Ǝœ¹ĥœéďœÏ½ĊƎœé¹ƎĊďœé¹ƎíēďƎÖéƎďÔ½ƎÖé¹ēĊďćĬƓƎQēćƎâí³ƎÖĊƎďíƎ´äíĊ½ƎďÔ½Ǝ
gap and enable our clients to gain a competitive edge through high-quality
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ABOUT US
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3. A NEW CULTURE
OF DATA DRIVEN
PIONEERING

4. THE
LOOKBACK
2022, AN EXCITING BUT CAUTIOUS YEAR OF
TOURISM RESTART
At the beginning of 2022, news of the Omicron
variant outbreak was overshadowed by reports
of the escalating conflict between Russia and
wãćœÖé½ƓƎ ;éƎ ďÔ½Ǝ ĊÔíćďƎ ď½ćèƔƎ ďÔ½Ǝ ć½ćíēďÖéÏƎ íÎƎ œÖćƎ
ďćœŏ´Ǝ ďíƎ œĥíÖ¹Ǝ kēĊĊÖœéƎ œÖćĊĄœ´½Ǝ ÔœĊƎ Öé´ć½œĊ½¹Ǝ
the cost of travel to Asia at a time when some
ĊÖœéƎ¹½ĊďÖéœďÖíéĊƎœć½Ǝć½íĄ½éÖéÏƎďíƎďíēćÖĊďĊƓ
;éƎďÔ½Ǝè½¹ÖēèƎď½ćèƔƎÖéÎäœďÖíéƔƎ½īœ´½ć³œď½¹Ǝ³ĬƎďÔ½Ǝ
conflict, is eroding consumers' purchasing power,
while rising fuel prices are increasing operating
´íĊďĊƎÎíćƎœÖćäÖé½ĊƓ
The year 2022 painted a picture mixed with
optimistic colors of returning to 'normalcy'
after the pandemic and concerns about other
threats, including escalating political tensions
œé¹Ǝ´Ôœää½éϽĊƎÖéƎďÔ½ƎÖé¹ēĊďćĬƓ
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5. Although
continued absence in the context of tourism in the
CHINESE MARKET
BOLD STEPS
ASIA-PACIFIC
THE RECOVERY PROCESS
LIVE WITH COVID-19 for some time, but at least in the markets,
HOW TO COPE WITH THE PANDEMIC
AND ADAPT TO A “NEW NORMAL”
ďíĦœć¹ĊƎÎēääƎć½œ´ďÖĥœďÖíéƎ³œĊ½¹ƎíéƎä½ĊĊƎĊďćÖ´ďƎĄíäÖ´Ö½ĊƓ
ć½ÏÖíéƎÔœĊƎ´ć½œď½¹ƎœƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎí³Ċďœ´ä½ƎďíƎďÔ½Ǝíĥ½ćœääƎ
recovery of the region, other markets have taken
Qĥ½ćƎďĦíƎĬ½œćĊƎíÎƎďÔ½ƎĄœé¹½èÖ´Ǝœé¹ƎďÔ½ƎŐćĊďƎĬ½œćƎíÎƎ
the reactions of governments in general and businesses in particular
have shown that the market and regulatory agencies are learning
All of this is reflected in a common decision that society will have to
íĥÖ¹ƣŔŜƎÖĊƎéíƎäíéϽćƎœƎĊ½ćÖíēĊƎ³œććÖ½ćƎďíƎďćœĥ½äƎœé¹ƎďíēćÖĊèƎœ´ďÖĥÖďÖ½ĊƓ
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6. íè½ĊďÖ´Ǝœé¹ƎÖéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎďíēćÖĊèƎÖéƎ‰Ö½ďéœèƎĊœĦƎœƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎć½´íĥ½ćĬƎÖéƎŕœŕŕƎ
ÎćíèƎďÔ½Ǝć½´íć¹ƎäíĦƎíÎƎŕœŕŔƓƎíè½ĊďÖ´ƎďíēćÖĊèƎ´íéďÖéē½¹ƎďíƎ³íēé´½Ǝ³œ´ãƎĊďćíéÏäĬƎ
ƨǔŔŘŖƓŖǤƩƎœé¹ƎĊēćĄœĊĊ½¹ƎďÔ½ƎďíďœäƎéēè³½ćƎíÎƎďíēćÖĊďĊƎć½´íć¹½¹ƎÖéƎŕœŔŜƎƨǔŔŜƓŕǤƩƎ
œÎď½ćƎŔŕƎèíéďÔĊƎíÎƎäÖÎďÖéÏƎĄœé¹½èÖ´ƣć½äœď½¹Ǝć½ĊďćÖ´ďÖíéĊƓ
Meanwhile, international tourism slowly made a comeback, with the total number
íÎƎďíēćÖĊďĊƎœďƎíé½ƣďÔÖć¹ƎíÎƎĄć½ƣĄœé¹½èÖ´Ǝä½ĥ½äĊƎƨƣŚŜƓŚǤƩƓƎsÔÖĊƎć½ĊēäďƎĦœĊƎÖéƎäÖé½Ǝ
ĦÖďÔƎ½īĄ½´ďœďÖíéĊƎœĊƎďÔ½ƎĄćíĄíćďÖíéƎíÎƎ‰Ö½ďéœèƿĊƎã½ĬƎĊíēć´½Ǝèœćã½ďĊƎÖĊƎÔ½œĥÖäĬƎ
concentrated in Northeast Asia, an area that was among the most cautious in
½œĊÖéÏƎďćœĥ½äƎć½ĊďćÖ´ďÖíéĊƎœé¹Ǝ½éďćĬƣ½īÖďƎć½ÏēäœďÖíéĊƎć½äœď½¹ƎďíƎíĥÖ¹ƣŔŜƓ
DOMESTIC TOURISM IN 2022
LED THE WAY IN REVIVING VIETNAM'S TOURISM INDUSTRY
6.3%
-34.1%
-52.9%
19.2%
16.1%
-78.9%
-99.9%
-79.7%
Total number of
domestic tourists
+153.3 %
Source: Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT)
2019 2020 2021 (vs 2019) 2022 (vs 2019)
Domestic International
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7. 4.1%
5.3%
6.2%
2.1%
32.2%
34.3%
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN 2022
RECOVERED MUCH LOWER
THAN EXPECTED
;éƎ‰Ö½ďéœèƔƎďÔ½ƎÖèĄíćďœé´½ƎíÎƎďÔ½ƎÔÖé½Ċ½Ǝèœćã½ďƎ´œééíďƎ³½Ǝ¹½éÖ½¹ƔƎœĊƎĄćÖíćƎďíƎ
íĥÖ¹ƔƎÔÖé½Ċ½ƎďíēćÖĊďĊƎ´íéĊÖĊď½éďäĬƎďíĄĄ½¹ƎďÔ½ƎäÖĊďƎíÎƎã½ĬƎèœćã½ďĊƓƎ;éƎŕœŔŜƔƎďÔ½Ǝ
ÔÖé½Ċ½Ǝ èœćã½ďƎ œäíé½Ǝ œ´´íēéď½¹Ǝ ÎíćƎ ŖŕƓŕǤƎ íÎƎ ďíďœäƎ Öéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎ œććÖĥœäĊƎ ďíƎ
‰Ö½ďéœèƔƎĊēćĄœĊĊÖéÏƎďÔ½ƎĊ½´íé¹ƣćœéã½¹Ǝèœćã½ďƔƎníēďÔƎGíć½œƔƎ³ĬƎíĥ½ćƎŔƓřƎèÖääÖíéƎ
œććÖĥœäĊƎœé¹ƎĊÖīƎďÖè½ĊƎďÔ½ƎďÔÖć¹ƣćœéã½¹Ǝèœćã½ďƔƎFœĄœéƓƎ
Therefore, when the Chinese market was removed
from the overall picture, the sporadic return of
íďÔ½ćƎèœćã½ďĊƎ´íēä¹ƎéíďƎŐääƎďÔ½ƎÏœĄƎœé¹Ǝć½ĥÖĥ½ƎďÔ½Ǝ
Öéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎďíēćÖĊèƎĊ´½é½ƎÖéƎ‰Ö½ďéœèƎÖéƎŕœŕŕƓ
sÔ½ƎwnƎèœćã½ď
sÔ½ƎēćíĄ½œéƎèœćã½ď
UK - Russia
sÔ½ƎƎÔÖé½Ċ½Ǝèœćã½ď
sÔ½ƎnƎèœćã½ďƎ
Thailand - Malaysia
The Australian market
sÔ½ƎMíćďÔ½œĊďƎĊÖœéƎèœćã½ďƎ
Japan - Korea - Taiwan
The proportion of visitors by market in the total number of international arrivals to Vietnam in 2019 (source: VNAT)
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8. Source: ForwardKeys
‰Ö½ďéœèƎÖĊƎœèíéÏƎďÔ½Ǝ´íēéďćÖ½ĊƎœé¹Ǝď½ććÖďíćÖ½ĊƎœďƎďÔ½Ǝ³íďďíèƎíÎƎďÔ½ƎÖéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎ
ďíēćÖĊèƎć½´íĥ½ćĬƎćœéãÖéÏĊƎĦÖďÔƎďÔ½Ǝć½´íĥ½ćĬƎćœď½ƎœďƎŕŖǤƎíÎƎŕœŔŜƔƎĊäíĦ½ćƎďÔœéƎďÔ½Ǝ
Ħíćä¹Ǝœĥ½ćœÏ½Ǝć½´íĥ½ćĬƎćœď½ƎœďƎŘŘǤƓƎsÔíēÏÔƎ‰Ö½ďéœèƿĊƎć½´íĥ½ćĬƎćœď½ƎÖĊƎ齜ćäĬƎ
ďÔ½ƎĊœè½ƎďíƎďÔœďƎíÎƎĊÖœƎƣƎhœć´ÖŐ´Ǝć½ÏÖíéƎƨŕŗǤƩƔƎÖďƎÖĊƎĊďÖääƎďÔ½ƎĊäíĦ½ĊďƎć½´íĥ½ćĬƎ
œèíéÏƎďÔ½ƎníēďÔ½œĊďƎĊÖœéƎ´íēéďćÖ½ĊƎĊēćĥ½Ĭ½¹Ɠ
-55% -69% -71% -75% -76% -77%
Philippines
Singapore
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
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9. MARKET LESSONS
DRAWN FROM THE ABSENCE OF
CHINESE TOURISTS
;éƎć½œäÖďĬƔƎÖďƎÔœĊƎ³½½éƎĊÔíĦéƎďÔœďƎÎćíèƎďÔ½Ǝœ³Ċ½é´½ƎíÎƎ
this important market, tourism businesses and local
governments in various destinations have learned a
lesson about over-reliance on the Chinese market, and
Ôœĥ½ƎÏćœ¹ēœääĬƎœ¹âēĊď½¹ƎďÔ½ÖćƎíĄ½ćœďÖíéĊƎœé¹ƎĄäœéĊƓƎ3íćƎ
example, Thailand and other Southeast Asian coun-
ďćÖ½ĊƎ Ôœĥ½Ǝ ďœćÏ½ď½¹Ǝ ;é¹ÖœƎ œĊƎ ďÔ½ÖćƎ é½ĦƎ èœÖéƎ Ċíēć´½Ǝ
èœćã½ďƓƎ ;é¹íé½ĊÖœƎ ÖĊƎ ÖèĄä½è½éďÖéÏƎ œƎ é½ĦƎ ¹ÖÏÖďœäƎ ĥÖĊœƎ
ĄćíÏćœèƓƎnÖéÏœĄíć½ƎÖĊƎĄēćĊēÖéÏƎœƎĊďćœď½ÏĬƎďíƎ³½´íè½ƎœƎ
top destination for meetings, incentives, conferences,
œé¹Ǝ½ĥ½éďĊƎƨL;ƎĊ½Ïè½éďƩƓƎ
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10. Tourist arrivals in 2019 2022
from 10 key international markets (in thousands)
International tourist arrivals to
Vietnam market in 2022 (in thousands)
níēďÔƎGíć½œ
wéÖď½¹Ǝnďœď½Ċ
sÔœÖäœé¹
ƎLœäœĬĊÖœ
Japan
nÖéÏœĄíć½
ēĊďćœäÖœ
Taiwan
ÔÖéœ
wéÖď½¹ƎGÖéϹíè
4½ćèœéĬ
3ćœé´½
œéœ¹œ
kēĊĊÖœ
769.2
215.3
162.6
135.0
128.8
128.4
99.2
89.5
71.9
67.3
60.0
58.1
37.9
28.1
ÔÖéœ
níēďÔƎGíć½œ
Japan
Taiwan
wéÖď½¹Ǝnďœď½Ċ
kēĊĊÖœ
LœäœĬĊÖœ
sÔœÖäœé¹
ēĊďćœäÖœ
wéÖď½¹ƎGÖéϹíè
72
769
129
90
215
28
135
163
99
67
5,806.4
4,290.8
952.0
926.7
746.2
646.5
606.2
509.8
383.5
315.5
2019 2022
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11. k½ĥ½éē½Ǝ ÎćíèƎ œ´´íèèí¹œďÖíéƎ œé¹Ǝ Îíí¹Ǝ Ċ½ćĥÖ´½ĊƎ ÖéƎ ŕœŕŕƎ ć½œ´Ô½¹Ǝ ŘŚśƓŚƎ ďćÖääÖíéƎ
‰MƔƎēĄƎŘŕƓŘǤƎ´íèĄœć½¹ƎďíƎďÔ½ƎĊœè½ƎĄ½ćÖí¹ƎäœĊďƎĬ½œćƎœé¹Ǝ齜ćäĬƎć½œ´Ô½¹ƎďÔ½Ǝä½ĥ½äƎ
íÎƎŕœŔŜƎƨƣŔƓŖǤƩƓƎsÔÖĊƎŐÏēć½ƎĊÔíĦĊƎďÔœďƎäí¹ÏÖéÏƎœé¹Ǝ¹ÖéÖéÏƎœ´ďÖĥÖďÖ½ĊƎÔœĥ½ƎœäèíĊďƎ
ÎēääĬƎć½´íĥ½ć½¹Ǝ´íèĄœć½¹ƎďíƎďÔ½ƎĄć½ƣĄœé¹½èÖ´ƎĄ½ćÖí¹ƓƎĊƎíÎƎďÔ½Ǝ½é¹ƎíÎƎFēé½ƎŕœŕŕƔƎ
there were about 33,330 tourism accommodation facilities with 667,000 rooms
éœďÖíéĦÖ¹½ƔƎœéƎÖé´ć½œĊ½ƎíÎƎŔŔǤƎ´íèĄœć½¹ƎďíƎŕœŔŜƎƨ½ĊďÖèœď½¹ƎœďƎœćíēé¹ƎŖœƔœœœ
Îœ´ÖäÖďÖ½ĊƎĦÖďÔƎřŘœƔœœœƎćííèĊƩƓƎnÖèÖäœćƎďíƎć½ĥ½éē½ƔƎďÔ½Ǝéēè³½ćƎíÎƎíĄ½ćœďÖéÏƎäí¹ÏÖéÏƎ
Îœ´ÖäÖďÖ½ĊƎÔœĊƎœäĊíƎć½´íĥ½ć½¹Ǝœé¹Ǝ½ĥ½éƎ½ī´½½¹½¹ƎďÔ½Ǝä½ĥ½äƎíÎƎŕœŔŜƓ
k½ĥ½éē½ƎÎćíèƎďíēćƎíĄ½ćœďÖíéĊƎÖéƎŕœŕŕƎć½œ´Ô½¹ƎŕŗƓŘƎďćÖääÖíéƎ‰MƔƎŘƓŖƎďÖè½ĊƎÔÖÏÔ½ćƎ
ďÔœéƎďÔ½ƎĊœè½ƎĄ½ćÖí¹ƎäœĊďƎĬ½œćƎœé¹ƎŚŗƓŜǤƎ´íèĄœć½¹ƎďíƎŕœŔŜƓƎĊƎíÎƎMíĥ½è³½ćƎŕŔƔƎ
ŕœŕŕƔƎďÔ½ć½ƎĦ½ć½ƎŕƔśŚśƎÖéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎďíēćƎíĄ½ćœďíćĊƎéœďÖíéĦÖ¹½ƔƎēĄƎśǤƎ´íèĄœć½¹Ǝ
ďíƎŕœŔŜƎƨŕƔřřŚƎďíēćƎíĄ½ćœďíćĊƩƓƎĊƎÎíćƎ¹íè½ĊďÖ´ƎďíēćƎíĄ½ćœďíćĊƔƎœĊƎíÎƎďÔ½Ǝ½é¹ƎíÎƎ
June 2022, 1,060 businesses had been licensed by local authorities, more than
¹íē³ä½ƎďÔ½Ǝéēè³½ćƎÖéƎŕœŔŜƎƨœ³íēďƎŘœœƎ³ēĊÖé½ĊĊ½ĊƩƓ
NATIONWIDE TOURISM SUPPLY
CHAIN RETURNS TO THE RACE
8.7%
-13.0%
Accomondation Food service
-32.1%
-1.3%
-20.2%
-45.3%
-80.1%
-25.1%
níēć´½ƕƎ4½é½ćœäƎnďœďÖĊďÖ´ĊƎQŏ´½
2019 2020 2021 (vs 2019) 2022 (vs 2019)
Tour operatoring service
11 l The Outbox Company

12. Mr. Tran Sy Son
CEO – PYS TRAVEL
After relaxing social distancing measures, domestic tourism has recovered
ĆēÖď½ƎĆēÖ´ãäĬƓƎ9íĦ½ĥ½ćƔƎÖé³íēé¹ƎďíēćÖĊèƔƎ½ĊĄ½´ÖœääĬƎďÔ½ƎÔÖé½Ċ½Ǝèœćã½ďƔƎÔœĊƎ
éíďƎĬ½ďƎć½´íĥ½ć½¹ƓƎsÔÖĊƎœäĊíƎć½Îä½´ďĊƎďÔ½Ǝć½´íĥ½ćĬƎĊďœďēĊƎíÎƎďćœĥ½äƎ´íèĄœéÖ½ĊƓƎ
Domestic tourism has returned and is slightly better than previous years
³½Îíć½ƎďÔ½ƎĄœé¹½èÖ´ƓƎsÔ½Ǝć½œĊíéƎÎíćƎďÔÖĊƎÖĊƎďÔœďƎďÔ½ć½ƎÖĊƎœäĦœĬĊƎœƎ¹½èœé¹ƎÎíćƎ
tourism, and previously tourists had two options: traveling abroad or traveling
¹íè½ĊďÖ´œääĬƓƎ9íĦ½ĥ½ćƔƎÖéƎŕœŕŕƔƎďÔ½ƎĄíĊĊÖ³ÖäÖďĬƎíÎƎďćœĥ½äÖéÏƎœ³ć휹ƎÖĊƎĆēÖď½ƎäíĦƎ
due to the ongoing pandemic, síƎĄ½íĄä½Ǝ´ÔííĊ½ƎďíƎďćœĥ½äƎ¹íè½ĊďÖ´œääĬƎÖéĊď½œ¹Ɠ
;éď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎďćœĥ½äƎÖĊƎœäĊíƎœŎ½´ď½¹Ǝ³½´œēĊ½ƎÖéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎďíēćÖĊďĊƎÔœĥ½ƎéíďƎĬ½ďƎƎƎƎƎƎƎƎ
ć½´íĥ½ć½¹ƔƎœé¹ƎĊíè½Ǝèœćã½ďĊƎĊē´ÔƎœĊƎÔÖéœƎœć½Ǝć½ĊďćÖ´ď½¹ƎÎćíèƎďćœĥ½äÖéÏƓ
‰Ö½ďéœè½Ċ½Ǝíēď³íēé¹Ǝďćœĥ½äƎÔœĊƎéíďƎĬ½ďƎć½´íĥ½ć½¹Ǝèē´ÔƔƎœé¹Ǝ‰Ö½ďéœè½Ċ½ƎĄ½íĄä½Ǝ
Ôœĥ½ƎéíďƎÔœ¹ƎèœéĬƎíĄĄíćďēéÖďÖ½ĊƎďíƎďćœĥ½äƎœ³ć휹ƓƎĊďÖèœď½¹Ǝíēď³íēé¹ƎďíēćÖĊèƎ
íÎƎ‰Ö½ďéœè½Ċ½ƎĄ½íĄä½ƎÖĊƎœ³íēďƎŖœƣŗœǤƎ´íèĄœć½¹ƎďíƎŕœŔŜƓ
“
”
The recovery of tourism activities in 2022 is being driven by the
demand for domestic tourism. The demand for outbound tourism by
Vietnamese people has also gradually increased since mid-2022,
although the choice of destinations is still limited due to Covid-19
regulations still being applied in some places.
12 l The Outbox Company

13. sÔ½Ǝéēè³½ćƎíÎƎíĄ½ćœď½¹ƎÎäÖÏÔďĊƎÖéƎŕœŕŕƎÖĊƎ½ĊďÖèœď½¹ƎďíƎć½œ´ÔƎŖŔŕƓśƎďÔíēĊœé¹ƔƎ
œéƎÖé´ć½œĊ½ƎíÎƎŔŗŚƓŚǤƎ´íèĄœć½¹ƎďíƎŕœŕŔƎœé¹Ǝ½ĆēÖĥœä½éďƎďíƎŜŘƓŚǤƎíÎƎŕœŔŜƓ
4äí³œäƎœĥÖœďÖíéƎ´œĄœ´ÖďĬƎÖéƎFœéēœćĬƎŕœŕŖƎÖĊƎíéäĬƎśǤƎäíĦ½ćƎďÔœéƎFœéēœćĬƎŕœŔŜƓ
sÔ½ƎÎœĊďƎć½´íĥ½ćĬƎĄœ´½ƎíÎƎŕœŕŕƎÖĊƎÎíć½´œĊď½¹ƎďíƎ´íéďÖéē½ƎÖéďíƎďÔ½ƎŐćĊďƎĆēœćď½ćƎíÎƎŕœŕŖƓ
ĥÖœďÖíéƎ´œĄœ´ÖďĬƎÖéƎÔÖéœƔƎ;é¹ÖœƔƎœé¹Ǝ‰Ö½ďéœèƎœć½ƎœääƎ½īĄ½´ď½¹ƎďíƎ½ī´½½¹ƎŕœŔŜƎä½ĥ½äĊƎÖéƎ
ďÔ½Ǝ´íèÖéÏƎèíéďÔĊƓ
VIETNAM'S AVIATION INDUSTRY IS RECOVERING WELL
Source: OAG
Source: Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam
326.7
216.6
126.3
312.8
2019 2020 2021 2022
Operated flights (thousands of flights)
Capacity change vs same month in 2019
³ĬƎèœâíćƎœĥÖœďÖíéƎèœćã½ďƎƨĊÖœƎhœ´ÖŐ´Ʃ
China
;é¹Öœ
Japan
;é¹íé½ĊÖœ
Australia
níēďÔƎGíć½œ
‰Ö½ďƎMœè
Thailand
HHƎQwMsk;nƎŠQkHŠ;
13 l The Outbox Company

14. Mr. Ly Ngoc Sang
Sales Marketing representative
– Japan Airlines ;éƎŕœŕŕƔƎœääƎœÖćäÖé½ĊƎœć½ƎÎœ´ÖéÏƎďÔ½Ǝ´Ôœää½éϽƎíÎƎäíĊĊ½ĊƎ¹ē½ƎďíƎďÔ½Ǝ䜴ãƎíÎƎ
ć½´íĥ½ćĬƎ ÖéƎ Öéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎ ĄœĊĊ½éϽćƎ ¹½èœé¹ƓƎ sÔ½Ǝ ĊÖďēœďÖíéƎ íÎƎ èœéĬƎ
Ïćíēé¹½¹ƎœÖć´ćœÎďƎœäĊíƎÖé´ēćĊƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎíéƣÏćíēé¹Ǝ´íĊďĊƓƎ;éƎŕœŕŔƎœé¹Ǝ
ĄœćďÖ´ēäœćäĬƎÖéƎŕœŕŕƔƎœÖćäÖé½ĊƎÔœĥ½ƎĊēŎ½ć½¹ƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎäíĊĊ½ĊƎ¹ē½ƎďíƎďÔ½Ǝ
normal operating expenses such as aircraft maintenance and labor
´íĊďĊƎÎíćƎďÔ½ƎœĥÖœďÖíéƎÖé¹ēĊďćĬƓƎFœĄœéƎÖćäÖé½ĊƎÖĊƎíé½Ǝ½īœèĄä½ƎíÎƎœéƎœÖćäÖé½Ǝ
that has incurred losses and had to operate many non-revenue flights
ƨíé½ƣĦœĬƩƎ ďíƎ ĊďœĬƎ œÎäíœďƓƎ 9íĦ½ĥ½ćƔƎ FœĄœéƎ ÖćäÖé½ĊƎ ÖĊƎ ĊďÖääƎ ĊďćÖĥÖéÏƎ ďíƎ
Ċ½ćĥ½ƎĄœĊĊ½éϽćĊƎÎäĬÖéÏƎďíƎFœĄœéƔƎďÔ½ƎwnƔƎœé¹ƎíďÔ½ćƎ´íēéďćÖ½ĊƓ
;ƎďÔÖéãƎďÔœďƎďÔ½ƎœÖćäÖé½ƎÖé¹ēĊďćĬƎÖéƎŕœŕŖƎĦÖääƎ³ć½œãƎ½ĥ½éƎœé¹Ǝ³½ÏÖéƎďíƎèœã½Ǝ
ĄćíŐďĊƔƎ ÔíĦ½ĥ½ćƔƎ ÖďƿĊƎ ¹Öŏ´ēäďƎ ďíƎ Ąć½¹Ö´ďƎ ďÔ½Ǝ ½īœ´ďƎ ďÖèÖéÏƎ íÎƎ ďÔ½Ǝ
break-even point, and the earliest forecast would likely be after the
Ċēèè½ćƎĊ½œĊíéƓ
“
”
In 2022, the loss-making situation of airlines is due to the absence
of the international passenger market, which leads to high costs
when many airplanes are unable to take off. However, it is predicted
that airlines will recover from the losses and break even in 2023.
14 l The Outbox Company

15. TRAVEL
TRENDS FOR 2023
The reality is that, although the attitudes and behaviors of travelers have been shaped through the pandemic, only a few of these
are likely to be long-lasting. International business and tourism activities were impacted during the peak of the pandemic, but
ĊÖé´½ƎďÔ½éƔƎ³íć¹½ćĊƎÔœĥ½Ǝ³½½éƎíĄ½é½¹Ǝœé¹Ǝ³ēĊÖé½ĊĊ½ĊƎÔœĥ½ƎÖèĄä½è½éď½¹Ǝé½ĦƎĄíäÖ´Ö½ĊƎíéƎĦíćãĄäœ´½Ǝäí´œďÖíéĊƔƎĦÔÖ´ÔƎĦÖääƎœŎ½´ďƎ
the increase in both leisure and business travel in 2023.
15 l The Outbox Company

16. Although there may be considerations
œé¹ƎŐéœé´ÖœäƎ´íé´½ćéĊƎ
FOR SERVICESfor trips,
the energy and demand for enriching travel experiences are predicted
to continue in 2023.
IN THE PLANNING
AND SEARCHING
If there is one clear psychological characteristic that runs
throughout 2022, it is that travelers
travel trend driving the market
One thing that is certain for the tourism picture in Vietnam in 2023
is that there will not be any single DOMINANT
Instead, there will be changes in
SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS that shape TOURISM TRENDS
that businesses must continuously monitor and be flexible to react to.
VALUE THE FREEDOM TO MOVE AROUND
AND ENJOY ENTERTAINMENT
EXPERIENCES
16 l The Outbox Company

17. FACTORS SHAPING TOURISM TRENDS
IN VIETNAM IN 2023
ADJUSTMENT FACTORS
The group of factors that adjust
and impact the behavior of tourists
are economic and social factors
Visa policy Prospects of Vietnam's
economy in 2023
Domestic airfare
cost
Prioritizing
healthcare
Consideration of cost and
actual value received
Expressing personal identity
through tourism activities
Increased awareness
of sustainable
development
Investment / Tourism
Real Estate
SHAPING FACTORS
This is a group of factors that
originate from the internal
psychology of tourists, shaping
the trends in tourist behavior
17 l The Outbox Company

18. Mr. Tran Sy Son
CEO – PYS TRAVEL
Visa barriers still exist and have not been completely relaxed like in
some other countries such as Thailand and Cambodia, so international
visitors to Vietnam are still hesitant. The visa policy should be more
flexible.
“
”
The reason why the international tourist market to Vietnam is recov-
ering slowly is due to barriers such as limited and not diverse tourism
products, many entertainment areas at destinations have not been
fully opened, and visa policies for foreigners to enter Vietnam are still
restrictive.
“
”
One of the important factors in creating a momentum for international
tourist destinations to attract the return of tourists is openness and
transparency in supporting policies and regulations for tourists. The
race to revive and reposition the destination image in the eyes of
tourists has never been more competitive and urgent than last year.
The recovery speed of each destination varies, but one thing is for sure
ƭŀñƭ͘ñ͘ėğơƭņŨñƭņųŨ͘ƭŀñƭ͘ņơ͘Ŧųƙğ͘ƖƙųñĐƭņǍğ͘ņŨ͘ƖƙųŦųƭņŨĸ͘ñŨė͘ǧğǓņĎŝğ͘ņŨ͘ņƭơ͘
visa policies will have a great advantage
Mr. Ly Ngoc Sang
Sales Marketing representative – Japan Airlines
18 l The Outbox Company

19. »ŀğ͘ĐųŨơƵŦğƙ͘ƖƙņĐğ͘Đƙņơņơ͘ñŨė͘ƭŀğ͘ĐųŨơğƘƵğŨĐğơ͘ųķ͘ņŨǧñƭņųŨ
will have certain impacts on tourism demand and decisions.
This will be most evident in the markets of Europe and the
United States where the situation of increasing consumer and
travel prices is more serious. With the aftermath of pent-up
demand for travel, travelers will have more concerns when
choosing long-distance trips, and instead choose domestic or
regional destinations to reduce cost pressures.
Although the situation is more optimistic for markets in the
ơņñ̿£ñĐņǦĐ͘ƙğĸņųŨ̪͘ƭŀğ͘ǦŨñŨĐņñŝ͘ĐųŨĐğƙŨơ͘ǎņŝŝ͘ơƭņŝŝ͘ğǓņơƭ͘ņŨ͘ƭŀğ͘
group of travelers from these markets. There is still demand for
travel, but travelers will tend to consider more carefully when
consuming tourism services.
Mr. Tran Sy Son
CEO – PYS TRAVEL
2023 will be a year of international tourism recovery and growth, but it will not
³½ƎœĊƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎœĊƎ½īĄ½´ď½¹ƓƎ;éƎŕœŕŖƔƎďÔ½Ǝ½´íéíèĬƎĦÖääƎÎœ´½ƎèœéĬƎ´Ôœää½éϽĊƎ
such as increasing unemployment rates and high CPI, which will have an impact
on the overall economy and the tourism industry in particular. Therefore, tours
ďíƎ齜ć³ĬƎœé¹ƎœŎíć¹œ³ä½Ǝ¹½ĊďÖéœďÖíéĊƎĦÖääƎœďďćœ´ďƎèíć½ƎďíēćÖĊďĊƎďÔœéƎÎœćœĦœĬƎ
places.
“
”
½´œēĊ½ƎďÔ½ƎďíēćÖĊèƎÖé¹ēĊďćĬƎÖĊƎéíéƣ½ĊĊ½éďÖœäƔƎÖďƎĦÖääƎ³½ƎÔ½œĥÖäĬƎœŎ½´ď½¹Ǝ³ĬƎ
ďÔ½ƎϽé½ćœäƎ½´íéíèÖ´ƎĊÖďēœďÖíéƎĊē´ÔƎœĊƎÖéÎäœďÖíéƔƎĄćí¹ē´ďÖíéƎ¹Öŏ´ēäďÖ½ĊƔƎœé¹Ǝ
decreased purchasing power. Vietnamese people's travel plans will depend
on the economic situation. We must wait until the economic situation and
people's incomes are ensured before considering travel trends.
“
”
Mr. Ly Ngoc Sang
Sales Marketing representative – Japan Airlines
19 l The Outbox Company

20. I believe that the optimistic outlook for Vietnam's tourism in 2023 based on the
growth of the economy, per capita income, and development of infrastructure is
quite subjective and far from the reality of economic indicators and market fore-
casts. We can see that the real estate market is almost stagnant. Looking at what
is happening with large domestic real estate corporations and issues of stock
èœćã½ďƎèœéÖĄēäœďÖíéƔƎēéÎíćďēéœď½äĬƔƎœääƎíÎƎďÔ½Ċ½ƎÎœ´ďíćĊƎÔœĥ½Ǝć½¹ē´½¹ƎďÔ½Ǝ´íéŐ-
dence of the tourism market.
Moreover, the forecast of inflation at 4.5% is quite optimistic, in my opinion. Prices of
ćœĦƎèœď½ćÖœäĊƎœé¹Ǝ½ä½´ďćÖ´ÖďĬƎœć½ƎœèíéÏƎďÔ½ƎèíĊďƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎÎœ´ďíćĊƎœŎ½´ďÖéÏƎÖéÎäœďÖíéƔƎ
and they are expected to increase. Raw material and electricity prices have not risen
during the past two years of the pandemic, so they are almost certain to increase in the
near future. The basic salary level is also expected to decrease by 20% in the middle of
the year, which is a major factor contributing to inflation.
Mr. Marc Bittner
Director of Operations – Fusion Hotel Group
”
“
»ŀğ͘ĐųŨǦėğŨĐğ͘ųķ͘ƭŀğ͘ƭųƵƙņơŦ͘Ŧñƙřğƭ͘ŀñơ͘ėğĐƙğñơğė͘ėƵğ͘ƭų͘ƭŀğ͘ņŦƖñĐƭ͘ųķ͘ƭŀğ͘ņŨơƭñĎņŝņƭǔ͘
occurring in the investment market and the tourism real estate market.
With all these factors, we can say that we enter 2023 with a certain degree of optimism,
³ēďƎďÔ½Ǝœ´ďēœäƎíĄ½ćœďÖíéƎœé¹Ǝ½´íéíèÖ´Ǝ¹œďœƎĦÖääƎÏÖĥ½ƎēĊƎœƎ´íèĄä½ď½äĬƎ¹ÖŎ½ć½éďƎĄÖ´ďēć½Ɠ
20 l The Outbox Company

21. ”
Š½Ǝ´œéƎĊ½½ƎďÔœďƎ¹íè½ĊďÖ´ƎÎäÖÏÔďƎďÖ´ã½ďƎĄćÖ´½ĊƎÔœĥ½ƎÖé´ć½œĊ½¹ƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďäĬƎĊÖé´½Ǝ
the beginning of 2023. While this may be due to domestic airlines trying to make
up for years of losses, it also poses a challenge for Vietnam's tourism industry.
How can we maintain domestic tourism demand while at the same time attract-
ing international tourists, especially since Vietnam is among the countries with
the slowest recovery rate in the region.
“
”
Maintaining the growth momentum and heat of domestic tourism
demand will face many challenges as domestic air travel costs are
increasing. In addition, the reopening of international destinations
will also attract Vietnamese tourists to shift towards more attrac-
tive and reasonably priced international destinations.
The high cost of raw materials as well as the slow recovery of the
international tourism market and outbound travel of Vietnamese
tourists have led airlines to report losses in 2022. This may lead to
airlines increasing ticket prices in 2023 to offset the losses from pre-
ǍņųƵơ͘ƭņŦğơ̩͘ơ͘ñŨ͘ğǓñŦƖŝğ̪͘ñņƙŝņŨğ͘ƭņĐřğƭ͘ƖƙņĐğơ͘ŀñǍğ͘ñŝƙğñėǔ͘ņŨ-
Đƙğñơğė͘ơņĸŨņǦĐñŨƭŝǔ͘ơņŨĐğ͘ƭŀğ͘ĎğĸņŨŨņŨĸ͘ųķ͘˫˩˫ˬ̩
Mr. Marc Bittner
Director of Operations –
Fusion Hotel Group
21 l The Outbox Company

22. sÔ½ć½Îíć½ƔƎ ¹½ĊĄÖď½Ǝ Őéœé´ÖœäƎ ´íé´½ćéĊƔƎ èœéĬƎ Ą½íĄä½Ǝ ĦÖääƎ ĊďÖääƎ èœÖéďœÖéƎ œƎ ĊďćíéÏƎ
demand for entertainment experiences and will seek to satisfy it through smarter
vacation choices. It could be shorter vacations, closer destinations, and choosing
services that ensure the cost paid is proportional to the actual value received
when consuming.
sćœĥ½ä½ćĊƎĦÖääƎĊ½½ãƎ¹ÖŎ½ć½éďƎĦœĬĊƎďíƎ½éâíĬƎďÔ½Ǝ³½é½ŐďĊƎíÎƎďćœĥ½äƎœé¹ƎďćÖĄĊƎĦÖďÔíēďƎ
œ¹¹ÖéÏƎďíƎďÔ½ƎŐéœé´ÖœäƎĄć½ĊĊēć½Ǝ´œēĊ½¹Ǝ³ĬƎÖéÎäœďÖíéƎœé¹ƎćÖĊÖéÏƎäÖĥÖéÏƎ´íĊďĊƓƎsÔ½Ǝ
uncertainty and increasing costs will make those who had a revengeful attitude
towards travel last year more cautious in their choices.
NOTALBE TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEHAVIORS IN 2023
68%
Travelers prioritize tourism
and seek experiences that
correspond to the costs
incurred.
(booking.com)
63%
Travelers will plan their
budgets more tightly by
taking advantage of
íŎ½ćĊƔƎ ďÖĄĊƎ œé¹Ǝ ďÖè½äĬƎ
travel.
(booking.com)
60%
3í´ēĊƎíéƎŐéœé´ÖœäƎĥœäē½ƎďÔćíēÏÔƎ
discounts and loyalty scheme.
(booking.com)
53%
Tourists choose to travel
íŎƣĊ½œĊíéƎ íćƎ ĥÖœƎ äíéϽćƎ ćíēď½ĊƎ
to save costs.
(booking.com)
61%
Travelers will plan their trip
further in advance in the
hope of getting a better
deal.
(booking.com)
Finding smarter and more curated vacation options
22 l The Outbox Company

23. Some themes that can be drawn from this trend include: rejuvenation travel,
relaxation, carbon-neutral tourism... Tourists tend to choose new destinations,
healing experiences, or select destinations or accommodations with health
care activities.
For those seeking more advanced spiritual experiences, alternative substances such as herbal psychedelics
ĦÖääƎ³½´íè½ƎœƎèíć½Ǝ´íèèíéƎíŎ½ćÖéÏƔƎĦÖďÔƎŖřǤƎĦœéďÖéÏƎďíƎďćĬƎďÔÖĊƎďĬĄ½ƎíÎƎ½īĄ½ćÖ½éďÖœäƎĦ½ääé½ĊĊƎ½īĄ½ćֽ鴽Ǝ
as part of their travels in 2023.
If in some previous years the wellness tourism trend was one of the shaping trends
of the market, after the pandemic, wellness in tourism is now more clearly and
widely accepted, becoming a part of the demand and a requirement for some
groups of customers on their trips.
44%
Travelers have a growing interest in seeking
ĊĄÖćÖďēœäƎÎēäŐääè½éďƎœé¹ƎèœĬƎÏíƎíéƎè½¹ÖďœďÖíéƎíćƎ
mindfulness retreats
(booking.com)
42%
Want to take a health break focusing on mental
health, transformative health or life milestones
like menopause or pregnancy.
(booking.com)
Travel has become a way to seek health value and mental balance
23 l The Outbox Company

24. ĊƎ ďÔ½Ǝ ŐćĊďƎ ďÔć½½Ǝ ³ćœé¹ĊƎ ďíƎ ÖèĄä½è½éďƎ ďÔ½Ǝ sćœĥœäĬĊďƎ ĊēĊďœÖ霳ä½Ǝ œĥÖœďÖíéƎ
standards framework for their users on their platforms.
73.8%
In 2022, tourism industry management recognizes
that their customers are increasingly interested in
sustainability.
(Euromonitor’s survey)
57.3%
Tourism industry management observes that
their customers are willing to pay more for
sustainable service products.
(Euromonitor’s survey)
An increasing number of tourists are looking to create positive impacts on the
Ąäœ´½ĊƎďÔ½ĬƎĥÖĊÖďƔƎ³ēďƎďÔ½ĬƎν½äƎÖďƿĊƎ¹Öŏ´ēäďƎďíƎďœã½Ǝć½ĊĄíéĊÖ³ÖäÖďĬƎÎíćƎďÔœďƎœé¹ƎĦÖääƎ
rely on leading tour companies to easily create sustainability.
Sustainability factors become the default standard
Companies and service providers sensitive to this changing demand will begin to
reorganize their activities to make responsible consumption and tourism easier.
ŎíćďĊƎďíƎĄćíèíď½Ǝ´ÔœéϽĊƎÖéƎďÔ½Ǝ¹½ĊÖÏéƎíÎƎć½ĊíćďƎœé¹Ǝ½éď½ćďœÖéè½éďƎ½īĄ½ćֽ鴽ĊƎ
will be highly valued by conscious groups of tourists.
24 l The Outbox Company

25. After a strong recovery in 2022, international tourism is expected to return to
pre-pandemic levels in some regions such as Europe and the Middle East this
year. Based on UNWTO's recovery scenarios for 2023, international tourist ar-
rivals may reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year, depending on
ďÔ½Ǝ¹½Ïć½½ƎíÎƎ½´íéíèÖ´Ǝ¹íĦéďēćéƔƎďíēćÖĊèƎć½´íĥ½ćĬƎÖéƎĊÖœƎœé¹ƎďÔ½Ǝhœ´ÖŐ´ƔƎďÔ½Ǝ
situation of Russia's attack on Ukraine, and other factors.
The recovery will continue throughout 2023, even as the tourism industry faces
challenges in the economy, health, and geopolitical issues. The recent lifting of
COVID-19-related travel restrictions in China, the world's largest outbound
tourism market in 2019, is an important step for the recovery of the tourism in-
¹ēĊďćĬƎÖéƎĊÖœƣhœ´ÖŐ´Ǝœé¹ƎĦíćä¹ĦÖ¹½ƓƎ;éƎďÔ½ƎĊÔíćďƎď½ćèƔƎć½´íéé½´ďÖéÏƎďíēćÖĊèƎ
ÎćíèƎÔÖéœƎ´œéƎ³½é½ŐďƎ¹½ĊďÖéœďÖíéĊƎÖéƎĊÖœƎœé¹ƎĊĄ½´ÖŐ´œääĬƎ‰Ö½ďéœèƓ
MARKET
RECOVERY
PREDICTION 2023
25 l The Outbox Company

26. Global international tourism spending is projected to reach 83% of its 2019 peak and fully recover by 2024. The return of the Chinese outbound market will gradually pick up in Q1
2023, as the number of Covid variants still increases on the mainland and political tensions with travel restrictions in place in some areas. It is expected that the comeback wave
of the world's largest outbound market will accelerate from Q2 2023 onwards, with an estimated increase of over 400% in international tourism spending in 2023 (Euromonitor).
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE RETURN OF OUTBOUND TOURISM
FROM THE CHINESE MARKET WILL CREATE AN IMPORTANT BOOST
FOR THE RECOVERY OF DESTINATIONS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION.
Before COVID COVID Projection Source: Oliver Wyman analysis, OAG
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018(150MN)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019(155MN)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020(20MN)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2021(20MN)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022(89MN)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2023(174MN)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2024(192MN)
Number of outbound trips by Chinese travelers
2018- 2024F, MN PAX
26 l The Outbox Company

27. When Do You Plan
to Travel Outbound in 2023?
International tourism from China is expected to resume in Q2, especially during the
Labor Day at the beginning of May.
The most sought-after destinations include Singapore, Bangkok, Tokyo, and Seoul.
THE RETURN TIMING OF CHINESE TOURISTS
Source: Dragon Trail’s Survey
14%
5%
14%
6%
42%
32%
Chinese New Year (21 - 27 Jan)
Qing Ming Festival (5 Apr)
Labor day (29 Apr - 3 May)
Dragon Boat Festival (22 - 24 Jun)
Summer (July and August)
Mid-Autumn Festival/National Day
(29 Sep - 6 Oct)
China’s Domestic Capacity
China’s International Capacity
Source: OAG
27 l The Outbox Company

28. sÔ½Ǝ½īĄ½´ďœďÖíéĊƎÎíćƎďÔ½Ǝć½´íĥ½ćĬƎíÎƎíēď³íēé¹ƎďíēćÖĊèƎÖéƎ¹ÖŎ½ć½éďƎèœćã½ďĊ
sÔ½Ǝć½´íĥ½ćĬƎíÎƎÖéď½ćéœďÖíéœäƎďíēćÖĊèƎÖéƎ¹ÖŎ½ć½éďƎć½ÏÖíéĊƎÖĊƎ½īĄ½´ď½¹ƎďíƎĥœćĬƎĊÖÏ-
éÖŐ´œéďäĬƓƎ;ďƎÖĊƎÎíć½´œĊď½¹ƎďÔœďƎďÔ½Ǝèœćã½ďĊƎÎćíèƎMíćďÔƎè½ćÖ´œƎœé¹ƎēćíĄ½ƎĦÖääƎ
recover to 84.2% and 85.8%, respectively, compared to the total number of trips
taken in 2019.
Markets from Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia are expected to recover faster,
but the total number of trips from these markets in 2023 is still projected to be
31.1% and 37.1% below the 2019 level.
For Vietnam's international tourism in 2023, with the return of the Chinese
market, it is expected to attract important markets with high proportions
such as China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, as well as distant markets such as
the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Considering the impact
Îœ´ďíćĊƎ œé¹Ǝ ďÔ½Ǝ ´ííć¹Öéœď½¹Ǝ ½ŎíćďĊƎ íÎƎ ¹½ĊďÖéœďÖíéƎ èœéœÏ½è½éďƎ œÏ½é´Ö½ĊƎ
and businesses, it is expected that Vietnam's international tourism recovery
in 2023 will reach 60%-65% of the 2019 level.
VIETNAM'S TOURISM INDUSTRY IN 2023 NEEDS MORE COORDINATED EFFORTS
TO ATTRACT BACK INTERNATIONAL VISITORS TO THE COUNTRY
Source: Tourism Economics
2020 2021 2022 2023 (f) 2024 (f) 2025 (f)
-68.4%
-65.9%
-34.9%
-15.8%
-2.0%
8.5%
-86.1%
-61.1%
-30.3%
-14.2%
-0.8%
6.7%
-88.0%
-92.4%
-67.8%
-31.1%
-4.9%
15.4%
-81.4%
-97.5%
-70.0%
-37.1%
-13.6%
6.7%
-75.8%
-83.2%
-55.2%
-31.3%
-14.9%
3.4%
-76.3%
-86.6%
-58.4%
-25.1%
-3.8%
9.2%
NORTH AMERICA EUROPE NORTH EAST ASIA SOUTH EAST ASIA SOUTH ASIA OCEANIA
28 l The Outbox Company

29. VIETNAM AWAITS THE RETURN OF
DOMINANT INTERNATIONAL VISITOR MARKETS
After a year of reopening, international arrivals to Vietnam have had a bumpy restart
with more obstacles than forecasted. According to VNAT’s statistics, Vietnam will
only welcome 2.7 million international visitors in 2022, at -85% compared to 2019.
This result is largely due to the absence of visitors from top key markets. Thailand
presented the highest rate of return reaching 31.8% of the 2019 level. Meanwhile, the
4 major markets accounting for nearly 65% of the total number of visitors shared the
same slow pace of returning flow at 17.9% and 1.2% for Korean and Chinese markets,
respectively.
Observing the pattern of international markets returned in 2022, it can be seen that
short-haul and medium-haul markets including neighboring countries such as Thailand,
and Malaysia, and from sub-regions such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan tend to
return faster. Long-haul markets like Europe will return more slowly due to the costs
of air travel and the concerns among travelers about the impact of rising consumer
prices and inflation.
The recent lifting of COVID-19-related travel restrictions in the People’s Republic
íÎƎÔÖéœƔƎďÔ½ƎĦíćä¹ƹĊƎäœćϽĊďƎíēď³íēé¹Ǝèœćã½ďƎÖéƎŕœŔŜƔƎÖĊƎœƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎĊď½ĄƎÎíćƎďÔ½Ǝ
ć½´íĥ½ćĬƎíÎƎďÔ½ƎďíēćÖĊèƎĊ½´ďíćƎÖéƎĊÖœƎœé¹ƎďÔ½Ǝhœ´ÖŐ´Ǝœé¹ƎĦíćä¹ĦÖ¹½ƓƎQēď³íēé¹Ǝ
travel of Chinese tourists is forecast to reach 110 million in 2023, nearly two third of
ŔŘŘƎèÖääÖíéƎďćÖĄĊƎÖéƎŕœŔŜƓƎsÔ½Ǝć½ďēćéƎíÎƎďÔÖĊƎèœćã½ďƎÖĊƎĊÖÏéÖŐ´œéďƎÎíćƎďÔ½ƎhƎć½ÏÖíéƔƎ
with China accounting for a quarter of total international arrivals. Southeast Asia
and Northeast Asia are particularly dependent on China as an important source
market.
Outbound travel from South Korea is projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels by
2024 with international departures increasing at a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 7.3% from 2022 to 2025. By 2025, international departures areexpected
to reach 30.3 million.
A weakening Yen (￥) is one of the factors that stimulate demand for international
ďćœĥ½äƎďíƎFœĄœéƔƎďÔÖĊƔƎÔíĦ½ĥ½ćƔƎÔœĊƎďÔ½ƎíĄĄíĊÖď½Ǝ½Ŏ½´ďƎíéƎďÔ½ƎFœĄœé½Ċ½Ǝíēď³íēé¹Ǝ
as traveling overseas becomes more expensive for Japanese people. In contrast to
airfares for flights to Japan skyrocketing in demand, airfares for flights from Japan
to other countries are still 20% below pre-pandemic levels.
29 l The Outbox Company

30. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM OF VIETNAM
With current low levels of demand in key source markets, combined with a highly
uncertain outlook, the return of international visitors to Vietnam is expected to
be lagging. This will be a process and may last until the end of 2024.
According to the recovery momentum
of important source markets from mid
and late 2022 to now, ďÔ½ƎèíĊďƎäÖã½äĬƎ
recovery prospect for international
tourism to Vietnam is 40% of the
pre-pandemic level, equivalent to 7.2
million arrivals.
The most positive scenario is when
the recovery speed of the markets
reaches the optimal level will bring
Vietnam’s international tourism to 10
million arrivals, equivalent to 60% of
the 2019 level.
However, in the less optimistic scenarioƔƎĦÔ½éƎďÔ½Ǝēé´½ćďœÖéďĬƎÎćíèƎďÔ½Ǝ½Ŏ½´ďĊƎ
íÎƎďÔ½Ǝ½´íéíèÖ´Ǝ½éĥÖćíéè½éďƎœé¹ƎďÔ½ƎŐ½ć´½Ǝćœ´½ƎďíƎœďďćœ´ďƎ³œ´ãƎďÔ½ƎÔÖé½Ċ½Ǝ
tourist market from destinations in the region will create tremendous challenges.
Due to these pressures, the recovery of international tourism in Vietnam only
reached 6.3 million arrivals, which is 35% of the pre-pandemic level.
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
International
arrivals
(mil.)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (f)
History
Base case
Best case
Worst case
Scenarios of international tourism recovery in 2023
30 l The Outbox Company

31. Destinations are trying to restore their tourism-dependent economy as well as
reduce their reliance on the Chinese market. By identifying new source markets,
;é¹ÖœƎ ÖĊƎ ÖéƎ èœéĬƎ ĦœĬĊƎ ďÔ½Ǝ Îćíéďćēéé½ćƎ ÖéƎ ďÔ½Ǝ ½ŎíćďĊƎ ďíƎ ć½ƣœććœéϽƎ ďÔ½Ǝ ďíēćÖĊèƎ
market order.
India has all the necessary ingredients to become a formidable foreign tourism
market. As the world's second most populous country and with the fastest growing
economy, this market has shown signs of strength as well as signals of real growth
coming. However, it may take a few years for India to become an attractive inter-
national tourism market globally.
EXPANDING THE MARKET...
THE EMERGING STORY OF THE INDIAN MARKET.
Foreign tourist arrivals growth in
India between 2009 and 2019
(India MOT)
143%
Indian international tourist
departures in 2019
(India MOT)
29 million
Forecast for the foreign tourism
market to fully recover and surpass
2024
42 billion USD
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32. Popular international destinations
among Indian tourists in 2019
(India MOT)
;é¹ÖœƎ½è½ćϽ¹ƎďÔ½ƎèíĊďƎ´íéŐ¹½éďƔƎĦÖďÔƎśřǤƎĊďœďÖéÏƎďÔ½ĬƎÖéď½é¹ƎďíƎďćœĥ½äƎÖéƎďÔ½Ǝ
next 12 months, followed closely by Vietnam and China.
78% of Indian travelers consider leisure travel as important while COVID-19
restrictions are still in place.
87% of Indian travelers feel comfortable about India reopening its borders to
international travellers.
93% of Indian travelers agree on the importance of making sustainable travel
decisions, with 77% of Indian travellers okay with less accommodation variety
as long as their travel decisions are sustainable.
níēć´½ƕƎííãÖéÏƓ´íèƹĊƎƎhƎsćœĥ½äƎíéŐ¹½é´½Ǝ;é¹½ī
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIAN TOURISTS
13,026,259
1,488,152
4,714,836
825,178
709,909 2,572,818
70,033
2,289,752
372,483
662,927
North America
Eastern Europe
South Asia
Oceania
Central South America
Africa
Southeast Asia
Western Europe
West Asia
East Asia
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34. www.the-outbox.com info@the-outbox.com
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