3. THE ECONOMY
•The economy has performed well in 2014, with concrete evidence that Ireland has weathered the worse of the recession.
•All headline KPI’s are improving. Employment continues to grow steadily. The construction, services and manufacturing sector are all performing better.
•However the worsening state of the global economy is a major threat to Ireland’s continuing recovery in 2015
4. 4
The recovery in the Irish economy has gained momentum and is broadening, though the underlying strength of the economy is less than that suggested by the recent exceptionally buoyant Quarterly National Accounts data. However, while the latest year-on-year headline growth rate overstates the scale of the improvement in economic performance, the evidence from a range of other data indicates that the recovery has strengthened and is becoming more balanced. Encouragingly, the domestic economic recovery has become more broad-based, supported by gradually improving employment and incomes. Against this background, consumer spending is growing and, allied to strong growth in investment spending, domestic demand is set to contribute positively to growth in 2014, for the first time since the downturn
Patrick Honohan, Governor, Central Bank of Ireland, Oct 2014
THE TIDE IS COMING IN
3
5. The Irish economy is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Ireland GDP Growth Forecasts
5
Source: Central Bank of Ireland 2014
6. Consumer and Business Confidence
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Consumer Sentiment Index
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Business Confidence Index
Consumer and business confidence have grown substantially since the middle of 2013. While the fundaments of the Irish economy remain sound, should the global economy slip back into recession in 2015, Ireland will be challenged to maintain growth
Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Survey KBC/Chartered Accountants Ireland Business Confidence
8. Ireland has the fastest growing economy in Europe in 2014
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Germany
Belgium
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Portugal
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
UK
EU
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