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Bear Market Retiree Income

Submitted by Larry Frank Sr. on Thu, 08/02/2012 - 3:00pm

Many retirees’ biggest fear is losing their money in a bear market. How
much can you afford to withdraw from your retirement portfolio when the
market shrinks the principal?

Some retirees structure their portfolios so they won´t lose principal, and
they live off the interest. But interest income usually goes down in
economic hard times because the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to
stimulate the economy. For example, if the retiree starts with 5%
interest, each $100,000 generates $5,000 per year (before taxes). If
interest rates drop from 5% to 4%, income drops to $4,000.

Other retirees reaching for yield, meaning they invest in risky securities
like junk bonds. That does not protect their principal very well.

For a prudent balanced approach for income, consider a total
return strategy, which recognizes that income can come from many
sources – and also recognizes that inflation is a factor in a retirement
plan. That’s because retirement spans many years, and inflation eats
away at your money.

Portfolio values go up and down. The question for the retiree is: How
much up and down are you comfortable with?

Beyond all that is the issue of how to manage your portfolio prudently
during retirement so that you live comfortably. During good economic
times, portfolio balances grow and, during poor ones, they decline. In
both, you need to withdraw money from the principal to live on, and don’t
want to take out too much.

The figure below lists sustainable withdrawal percentages at various
ages. As I showed in a previous article using this table, Withdraw 4% in
Retirement, the upper segment is labeled POF 10%. POF means
Probability of Failure, and it measures the odds that your money won’t
last through retirement. The lower segment covers a 30% chance of
failure.

This figure and its conclusions come from research by me and my
collaborators, published in the November 2011 edition of the Journal of
Financial Planning.

Let’s look at a sustainable withdrawal percentage for a 65-year-old, who
is concerned with passing on his money to heirs, so his in
the bequest category. His safest withdrawal rate is 4.11%. That
translates to spending, for each $100,000 in his portfolio, $4,110 for the
current year, regardless of interest rates or market actions.




What if markets go down during the year? At what point should you
consider reducing spending just a little to improve future portfolio
balances for retirement needs? When the economy is poor, the natural
tendency is to reduce spending.

The lower panel in the figure, with its 30% probability of failure, has
a higher drawdown rate. That rate rises in retirement due to a decline in
portfolio value.

Pardon me while we do a little math so you can see where the numbers
come from. Let’s take our $4,110 amount from the example above.
An annual drawdown rate (DR%) equals the annual dollar amount
withdrawn ($Y) divided by the total portfolio value ($X), or $Y / $X =
DR%. What value would $X need to be in this example using $4,110
from above so that DR% reaches the higher drawdown rate (5.21%) in
the lower panel?

Thus, $4,110 divided by 5.21% in the lower panel = $78,887, which is the
portfolio value at which we should reduce our spending. Of course,
reducing spending prior to this point is more prudent because this means
you are taking fewer dollars off of a declining balance earlier. That’s a
good thing.

Okay, but what do we need to reduce spending to? We want to get back
to a lower drawdown rate, which is 4.11% in this example. Now we use
the lower portfolio value $78,887 we just calculated in the basic formula
$X times DR% = $Y: $78,887 times 4.11% = our new annual retirement
income, $3242.
You also may use the above method to monitor your retirement. Simply
substitute 4.52% or 5.29% for initial values respectively (upper panel), and
for poor market values substitute 5.69% and 6.53% respectively (lower
panel) if you are age 65, for example.

The 30% panel shows it is increasingly more likely you will run out of
money withdrawing from your retirement fund as compared to the 10%
panel values. As your drawdown rate goes up, your portfolio values go
down. The opposite happens when portfolio values go up, which is good
because this signals an ability to spend a bit more to replace that old car,
repair the roof, visit the grandkids, etc.

It really does not matter what the markets do on any given day since they
always are noisy. That noise is what makes people nervous. But if people
know what portfolio balances really matter, then they can simply ignore
the daily noise.

The value of this exercise is twofold: first, you now have a portfolio value
in mind ahead of time, WHEN you should reduce spending; second, you
now have a drawdown value in mind ahead of time, WHAT you would
reduce spending to. This last point is useful because you can evaluate
your expenses during worrisome times to see where you might cut back,
rather than waiting.

The art here is having a sense to distinguish between market declines that
are cyclical based on normal investor perceptions, and market declines
that are a result of systemic stresses such as those experienced in 2008.
This is where an experienced advisor may come in handy.

This strategy to measure and manage your portfolio during market
declines does not prevent loss of portfolio value. Rather, it is a method
precisely for such occasions and recognizes that markets, and portfolio
values, go up and down.
Follow AdviceIQ on Twitter at @adviceiq

Larry R Frank Sr., CFP, is a Registered Investment Adviser (California) in
Roseville, Calif. He is the author of the book, Wealth Odyssey. He has an
MBA with a finance concentration and B.S. cum laude in physics with
which he views the world of money dynamically. He has peer-reviewed
research published in the Journal of Financial
Planning. www.blog.BetterFinancialEducation.com.

AdviceIQ delivers quality personal finance articles by both financial
advisors and AdviceIQ editors. It ranks advisors in your area by specialty.
For instance, the rankings this week measure the number of clients whose
income is between $250,000 and $500,000 with that advisor. AdviceIQ
also vets ranked advisors so only those with pristine regulatory histories
can participate. AdviceIQ was launched Jan. 9, 2012, by veteran
Wall Street executives, editors and technologists. Right now, investors
may see many advisor rankings, although in some areas only a few are
ranked. Check back often as thousands of advisors are undergoing
AdviceIQ screening. New advisors appear in rankings daily.
Topic:
Bonds
Retirement Planning
Withdrawals from 401Ks

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Bear market retiree income advice iq

  • 1. Bear Market Retiree Income Submitted by Larry Frank Sr. on Thu, 08/02/2012 - 3:00pm Many retirees’ biggest fear is losing their money in a bear market. How much can you afford to withdraw from your retirement portfolio when the market shrinks the principal? Some retirees structure their portfolios so they won´t lose principal, and they live off the interest. But interest income usually goes down in economic hard times because the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to stimulate the economy. For example, if the retiree starts with 5% interest, each $100,000 generates $5,000 per year (before taxes). If interest rates drop from 5% to 4%, income drops to $4,000. Other retirees reaching for yield, meaning they invest in risky securities like junk bonds. That does not protect their principal very well. For a prudent balanced approach for income, consider a total return strategy, which recognizes that income can come from many sources – and also recognizes that inflation is a factor in a retirement plan. That’s because retirement spans many years, and inflation eats away at your money. Portfolio values go up and down. The question for the retiree is: How much up and down are you comfortable with? Beyond all that is the issue of how to manage your portfolio prudently during retirement so that you live comfortably. During good economic times, portfolio balances grow and, during poor ones, they decline. In both, you need to withdraw money from the principal to live on, and don’t want to take out too much. The figure below lists sustainable withdrawal percentages at various ages. As I showed in a previous article using this table, Withdraw 4% in Retirement, the upper segment is labeled POF 10%. POF means Probability of Failure, and it measures the odds that your money won’t
  • 2. last through retirement. The lower segment covers a 30% chance of failure. This figure and its conclusions come from research by me and my collaborators, published in the November 2011 edition of the Journal of Financial Planning. Let’s look at a sustainable withdrawal percentage for a 65-year-old, who is concerned with passing on his money to heirs, so his in the bequest category. His safest withdrawal rate is 4.11%. That translates to spending, for each $100,000 in his portfolio, $4,110 for the current year, regardless of interest rates or market actions. What if markets go down during the year? At what point should you consider reducing spending just a little to improve future portfolio balances for retirement needs? When the economy is poor, the natural tendency is to reduce spending. The lower panel in the figure, with its 30% probability of failure, has a higher drawdown rate. That rate rises in retirement due to a decline in portfolio value. Pardon me while we do a little math so you can see where the numbers come from. Let’s take our $4,110 amount from the example above. An annual drawdown rate (DR%) equals the annual dollar amount withdrawn ($Y) divided by the total portfolio value ($X), or $Y / $X = DR%. What value would $X need to be in this example using $4,110 from above so that DR% reaches the higher drawdown rate (5.21%) in the lower panel? Thus, $4,110 divided by 5.21% in the lower panel = $78,887, which is the portfolio value at which we should reduce our spending. Of course, reducing spending prior to this point is more prudent because this means you are taking fewer dollars off of a declining balance earlier. That’s a good thing. Okay, but what do we need to reduce spending to? We want to get back to a lower drawdown rate, which is 4.11% in this example. Now we use the lower portfolio value $78,887 we just calculated in the basic formula $X times DR% = $Y: $78,887 times 4.11% = our new annual retirement income, $3242.
  • 3. You also may use the above method to monitor your retirement. Simply substitute 4.52% or 5.29% for initial values respectively (upper panel), and for poor market values substitute 5.69% and 6.53% respectively (lower panel) if you are age 65, for example. The 30% panel shows it is increasingly more likely you will run out of money withdrawing from your retirement fund as compared to the 10% panel values. As your drawdown rate goes up, your portfolio values go down. The opposite happens when portfolio values go up, which is good because this signals an ability to spend a bit more to replace that old car, repair the roof, visit the grandkids, etc. It really does not matter what the markets do on any given day since they always are noisy. That noise is what makes people nervous. But if people know what portfolio balances really matter, then they can simply ignore the daily noise. The value of this exercise is twofold: first, you now have a portfolio value in mind ahead of time, WHEN you should reduce spending; second, you now have a drawdown value in mind ahead of time, WHAT you would reduce spending to. This last point is useful because you can evaluate your expenses during worrisome times to see where you might cut back, rather than waiting. The art here is having a sense to distinguish between market declines that are cyclical based on normal investor perceptions, and market declines that are a result of systemic stresses such as those experienced in 2008. This is where an experienced advisor may come in handy. This strategy to measure and manage your portfolio during market declines does not prevent loss of portfolio value. Rather, it is a method precisely for such occasions and recognizes that markets, and portfolio values, go up and down. Follow AdviceIQ on Twitter at @adviceiq Larry R Frank Sr., CFP, is a Registered Investment Adviser (California) in Roseville, Calif. He is the author of the book, Wealth Odyssey. He has an MBA with a finance concentration and B.S. cum laude in physics with which he views the world of money dynamically. He has peer-reviewed research published in the Journal of Financial Planning. www.blog.BetterFinancialEducation.com. AdviceIQ delivers quality personal finance articles by both financial advisors and AdviceIQ editors. It ranks advisors in your area by specialty. For instance, the rankings this week measure the number of clients whose income is between $250,000 and $500,000 with that advisor. AdviceIQ also vets ranked advisors so only those with pristine regulatory histories can participate. AdviceIQ was launched Jan. 9, 2012, by veteran Wall Street executives, editors and technologists. Right now, investors may see many advisor rankings, although in some areas only a few are ranked. Check back often as thousands of advisors are undergoing AdviceIQ screening. New advisors appear in rankings daily.