The Dynamic Implications of Sequence Risk on a Distribution Portfolio Journal...Better Financial Education
A practical method for advisers to measure exposure to sequence risk is through evaluation of the current probability of failure rate (which I've later renames as iteration failure rate to reflect measurement of the Monte Carlo simulation rather than the plan itself - two different things). This paper lead to a deeper investigation of failure rates thus leading to two subsequent papers discovering the three-dimensional nature of simulations over various time periods and allocations, as well as application of longevity to the simulation modeling.
Can You Pick The Next Winner?
Asset Class Performance 2002‐2021 of various global markets.
Pick any color in any earlier year and see what
happened in any later year. Bottom go up and top go down randomly.
*Note the 20 year results also
change asset class positions
over the years (don't predict
the future).
Annual stock market returns are unpredictable, but “up” years have occurred much more frequently than “down” years in the US. That may be reassuring to investors, especially if they find market downturns unsettling.
The US stock market posted positive returns in 75% of thecalendar years from 1926 through 2021.
• The market gained an annualized average of 10.2% during this period. Yet nearly two-thirds of yearly observations were at least 10 percentage points above or below the average.
• Another noteworthy trend: More than two-thirds of the down years were followed by up years. The most recent example: a 5.0% loss in 2018 followed by a 30.4% gain in 2019.
Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and lo...Better Financial Education
This first appeared in blog post that describes the graphs in more details
https://blog.betterfinancialeducation.com/sustainable-retirement/what-are-the-three-paradigms-of-retirement-planning/
Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and longevity percentile statistics along with consumer spending trend line of “Real People” (which is not based here on spending percentile statistics, but on research averages). Starting balance $500,000 with $36,000 Social Security. Two simple graphs by age answer many retiree questions about potential future spending and balances. Creates a whole different discussion. Also illustrates why age 95 is a poor reference for planning since it doesn’t plan or consider aging into future ages from the beginning of retirement.
The Dynamic Implications of Sequence Risk on a Distribution Portfolio Journal...Better Financial Education
A practical method for advisers to measure exposure to sequence risk is through evaluation of the current probability of failure rate (which I've later renames as iteration failure rate to reflect measurement of the Monte Carlo simulation rather than the plan itself - two different things). This paper lead to a deeper investigation of failure rates thus leading to two subsequent papers discovering the three-dimensional nature of simulations over various time periods and allocations, as well as application of longevity to the simulation modeling.
Can You Pick The Next Winner?
Asset Class Performance 2002‐2021 of various global markets.
Pick any color in any earlier year and see what
happened in any later year. Bottom go up and top go down randomly.
*Note the 20 year results also
change asset class positions
over the years (don't predict
the future).
Annual stock market returns are unpredictable, but “up” years have occurred much more frequently than “down” years in the US. That may be reassuring to investors, especially if they find market downturns unsettling.
The US stock market posted positive returns in 75% of thecalendar years from 1926 through 2021.
• The market gained an annualized average of 10.2% during this period. Yet nearly two-thirds of yearly observations were at least 10 percentage points above or below the average.
• Another noteworthy trend: More than two-thirds of the down years were followed by up years. The most recent example: a 5.0% loss in 2018 followed by a 30.4% gain in 2019.
Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and lo...Better Financial Education
This first appeared in blog post that describes the graphs in more details
https://blog.betterfinancialeducation.com/sustainable-retirement/what-are-the-three-paradigms-of-retirement-planning/
Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and longevity percentile statistics along with consumer spending trend line of “Real People” (which is not based here on spending percentile statistics, but on research averages). Starting balance $500,000 with $36,000 Social Security. Two simple graphs by age answer many retiree questions about potential future spending and balances. Creates a whole different discussion. Also illustrates why age 95 is a poor reference for planning since it doesn’t plan or consider aging into future ages from the beginning of retirement.
Finding the parallels between flying a jet and helping people
develop financial plans may be difficult for the average person, but for Larry R. Frank Sr., the similarities between these two activities are crystal clear.
A question of equilibrium - can there be more buyers than sellers? Or more se...Better Financial Education
Have you ever wondered who is buying if so many people are selling?
The notion that sellers can outnumber buyers on
down days doesn’t make sense. What the newscasters should say, of course, is that prices adjusted lower because would-be buyers weren’t prepared to pay
the former price.
What happens in such a case is either the would-be sellers sit on their shares or prices quickly adjust to the point where supply and demand come into balance and transactions occur at a price that both buyers
and sellers find mutually beneficial. Economists refer
to this as equilibrium.
The Happiness Equation as it relates to investing is an interrelationship between your perceptions and expectations of investing and events. How do you manage happiness when you can't manage the markets?
A mistake many inexperienced sailors make is not having a plan at all. They embark without a clear sense of their destination. And once they do decide, they often find themselves lost at sea in the wrong boat
with inadequate provisions.
Destination, contingencies when trouble comes up, course corrections, bad weather and more can happen on the journey. How do you properly prepare for sailing is much the same as investing.
When setting expectations,
it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced
by investors historically. For example, how often have
the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with
its long-term average? Better yet, how often are the markets positive?
How many times can you use a source of money in your retirement plan? Turns out, just once, unless you know ahead of time WHEN something is going to happen, or if something was NOT going to happen. Since we don't know either, we need to plan on what resources may solve which issues we have in retirement. That plan should be documented in some fashion, otherwise our minds begin to allocate limited resources to everything - and that's when life happens.
This will be discussed in detail on Better Financial Education's blog on the 4th of Oct 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Jc .
The world is risky. The future is uncertain. And many of the decisions we make can have a pro-found impact on our future welfare. Risk cannot be eliminated, but it can be managed.
Blog post for further perspective http://wp.me/p2Oizj-I8 (scheduled to post 17 May 17).
Robo-advisor portfolios may be well diversified, they also contain construction gaps that should not be present in well-constructed portfolios.
Post discussing this in broader context schedule for 3 May 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-HV
Robo-advisor portfolios may be well diversified, they also contain construction gaps that should not be present in well-constructed portfolios.
Post discussing this in broader context schedule for 3 May 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-HV
This paper essentially demonstrates to academics and the profession that the current method of computing retirement income essentially arrives at a single solution applicable only to today; it does not model the future as currently interpreted. Our paper contrasts the difference between a calculation and a "multi-cast" simulation model.
Our research summary paper is published in the Journal of Financial Planning, Nov 2016. A link to the paper is available here "Combining Stochastic Simulations and Actuarial Withdrawals into One Model." ( http://bit.ly/2eLBUq9 )
Our working paper documenting our research project won the CFP® Board Best Research Paper Award at the 2016 Academy of Financial Services ( http://academyfinancial.org/ ) annual conference through an academic panel using a blind review process. "Certainty of Lifestyle: Contrasting a Simulation Over a Fixed Period versus Multiple Period Models" ( http://bit.ly/2dWtuNz )
In early Nov 2016, two blogs will post going into more insights from the research: Just where does the fear of outliving our money come from? Part I with link to Part II. ( http://wp.me/p2Oizj-H2 )
Investing makes it possible for many of us to achieve important lifetime goals, such as retirement. That’s why we employ an investment approach based on almost nine decades of data, analysis and research, insights from behavioral finance and close relationships with leading academics. There are four key concepts which play a vital role in the construction and management of our portfolios. Together, they add up to a distinctive long-term, approach we call Asset Class, or evidence-based, Investing
There are a number of different methods of calculating investment return, depending on what you’re trying to measure. Perhaps the most basic is total return, which is simply an investment’s ending balance expressed as a percent of its beginning balance. Total return includes capital appreciation and income components; it assumes all income distributions are reinvested. To annualize total return, you’ll need to calculate the compound annual return, which generally requires using a financial calculator. It’s important to keep in mind that you need a greater percentage gain after a losing year in order to break even on your investment.
More discussion of this when blog posts 22 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hk
The article discusses an alternative approach to experiencing the costs of index reconstitution, called “Asset Classes,” which allow the fund manager broader leeway as to when to buy or sell, along with a broader range of holdings. This discussion begins in the section called “Decision Two: Indexing or Asset Class Investing?”
The Asset Class approach, also referred to by others as "Factor Investing," is based on what has become to be called “Evidence Based Investing” due to roots discussed in the linked "Factor Investing" article, that come from academic (peer reviewed and repeatable results) foundation that continues to this day.
My blog post discussing this article is scheduled to post 8 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hh
There is a cost to indexing that most investors are unaware of. It is called “reconstitution.”
A blog post is scheduled for 8 Feb 2017 discussing this article.
http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hh
Most people look at the benefits they would receive today when making their decision about when to begin receiving their Social Security. They also underestimate how long they may live unless they already have medical issues that are known to reduce longevity.
These two impulses cause many couples to begin their benefits too early which has an adverse effect for survivor income. When one person dies, the lowest benefit “goes away” and the highest benefit “remains.”
The article below explains how that works with a couple and their Social Security benefits at various ages.
This brief slideshow discusses some elements necessary to recognize that our emotions and reactions to investing and markets often hurt results. Discipline and a focus on what you can control are important to success.
There is an investing approach that is based on discipline and evidence from research in both the finance and behavioral finance sciences.
Scheduled to post to Better Financial Education blog 11 Jan 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-vH
Most people don’t know how their Social Security benefit is determined. Being unaware leads to this very common question – Will working longer increase, or decrease my Social Security benefit?
Working longer, even part time, will NOT reduce your benefit. And in some cases, may increase your benefit.
The blog post discussing this will appear 28 Dec 2016 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-GY
Most people don't realize (or do, but don't plan for it) that, as a couple, there is lost income from Social Security automatically built in. I discussed example in a post titled "Social Security and Survivor Considerations." ( http://blog.betterfinancialeducation.com/sustainable-retirement/social-security-and-survivor-considerations/ )
The post discussing this will post 14 Sep 16 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-GC
Actively managing your debt is an important step, and your student debt may be one of the biggest financial obligations you have. There are many strategies that could help you manage student loans efficiently.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the what'sapp contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
+12349014282
Finding the parallels between flying a jet and helping people
develop financial plans may be difficult for the average person, but for Larry R. Frank Sr., the similarities between these two activities are crystal clear.
A question of equilibrium - can there be more buyers than sellers? Or more se...Better Financial Education
Have you ever wondered who is buying if so many people are selling?
The notion that sellers can outnumber buyers on
down days doesn’t make sense. What the newscasters should say, of course, is that prices adjusted lower because would-be buyers weren’t prepared to pay
the former price.
What happens in such a case is either the would-be sellers sit on their shares or prices quickly adjust to the point where supply and demand come into balance and transactions occur at a price that both buyers
and sellers find mutually beneficial. Economists refer
to this as equilibrium.
The Happiness Equation as it relates to investing is an interrelationship between your perceptions and expectations of investing and events. How do you manage happiness when you can't manage the markets?
A mistake many inexperienced sailors make is not having a plan at all. They embark without a clear sense of their destination. And once they do decide, they often find themselves lost at sea in the wrong boat
with inadequate provisions.
Destination, contingencies when trouble comes up, course corrections, bad weather and more can happen on the journey. How do you properly prepare for sailing is much the same as investing.
When setting expectations,
it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced
by investors historically. For example, how often have
the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with
its long-term average? Better yet, how often are the markets positive?
How many times can you use a source of money in your retirement plan? Turns out, just once, unless you know ahead of time WHEN something is going to happen, or if something was NOT going to happen. Since we don't know either, we need to plan on what resources may solve which issues we have in retirement. That plan should be documented in some fashion, otherwise our minds begin to allocate limited resources to everything - and that's when life happens.
This will be discussed in detail on Better Financial Education's blog on the 4th of Oct 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Jc .
The world is risky. The future is uncertain. And many of the decisions we make can have a pro-found impact on our future welfare. Risk cannot be eliminated, but it can be managed.
Blog post for further perspective http://wp.me/p2Oizj-I8 (scheduled to post 17 May 17).
Robo-advisor portfolios may be well diversified, they also contain construction gaps that should not be present in well-constructed portfolios.
Post discussing this in broader context schedule for 3 May 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-HV
Robo-advisor portfolios may be well diversified, they also contain construction gaps that should not be present in well-constructed portfolios.
Post discussing this in broader context schedule for 3 May 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-HV
This paper essentially demonstrates to academics and the profession that the current method of computing retirement income essentially arrives at a single solution applicable only to today; it does not model the future as currently interpreted. Our paper contrasts the difference between a calculation and a "multi-cast" simulation model.
Our research summary paper is published in the Journal of Financial Planning, Nov 2016. A link to the paper is available here "Combining Stochastic Simulations and Actuarial Withdrawals into One Model." ( http://bit.ly/2eLBUq9 )
Our working paper documenting our research project won the CFP® Board Best Research Paper Award at the 2016 Academy of Financial Services ( http://academyfinancial.org/ ) annual conference through an academic panel using a blind review process. "Certainty of Lifestyle: Contrasting a Simulation Over a Fixed Period versus Multiple Period Models" ( http://bit.ly/2dWtuNz )
In early Nov 2016, two blogs will post going into more insights from the research: Just where does the fear of outliving our money come from? Part I with link to Part II. ( http://wp.me/p2Oizj-H2 )
Investing makes it possible for many of us to achieve important lifetime goals, such as retirement. That’s why we employ an investment approach based on almost nine decades of data, analysis and research, insights from behavioral finance and close relationships with leading academics. There are four key concepts which play a vital role in the construction and management of our portfolios. Together, they add up to a distinctive long-term, approach we call Asset Class, or evidence-based, Investing
There are a number of different methods of calculating investment return, depending on what you’re trying to measure. Perhaps the most basic is total return, which is simply an investment’s ending balance expressed as a percent of its beginning balance. Total return includes capital appreciation and income components; it assumes all income distributions are reinvested. To annualize total return, you’ll need to calculate the compound annual return, which generally requires using a financial calculator. It’s important to keep in mind that you need a greater percentage gain after a losing year in order to break even on your investment.
More discussion of this when blog posts 22 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hk
The article discusses an alternative approach to experiencing the costs of index reconstitution, called “Asset Classes,” which allow the fund manager broader leeway as to when to buy or sell, along with a broader range of holdings. This discussion begins in the section called “Decision Two: Indexing or Asset Class Investing?”
The Asset Class approach, also referred to by others as "Factor Investing," is based on what has become to be called “Evidence Based Investing” due to roots discussed in the linked "Factor Investing" article, that come from academic (peer reviewed and repeatable results) foundation that continues to this day.
My blog post discussing this article is scheduled to post 8 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hh
There is a cost to indexing that most investors are unaware of. It is called “reconstitution.”
A blog post is scheduled for 8 Feb 2017 discussing this article.
http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hh
Most people look at the benefits they would receive today when making their decision about when to begin receiving their Social Security. They also underestimate how long they may live unless they already have medical issues that are known to reduce longevity.
These two impulses cause many couples to begin their benefits too early which has an adverse effect for survivor income. When one person dies, the lowest benefit “goes away” and the highest benefit “remains.”
The article below explains how that works with a couple and their Social Security benefits at various ages.
This brief slideshow discusses some elements necessary to recognize that our emotions and reactions to investing and markets often hurt results. Discipline and a focus on what you can control are important to success.
There is an investing approach that is based on discipline and evidence from research in both the finance and behavioral finance sciences.
Scheduled to post to Better Financial Education blog 11 Jan 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-vH
Most people don’t know how their Social Security benefit is determined. Being unaware leads to this very common question – Will working longer increase, or decrease my Social Security benefit?
Working longer, even part time, will NOT reduce your benefit. And in some cases, may increase your benefit.
The blog post discussing this will appear 28 Dec 2016 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-GY
Most people don't realize (or do, but don't plan for it) that, as a couple, there is lost income from Social Security automatically built in. I discussed example in a post titled "Social Security and Survivor Considerations." ( http://blog.betterfinancialeducation.com/sustainable-retirement/social-security-and-survivor-considerations/ )
The post discussing this will post 14 Sep 16 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-GC
Actively managing your debt is an important step, and your student debt may be one of the biggest financial obligations you have. There are many strategies that could help you manage student loans efficiently.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the what'sapp contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
+12349014282
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the what'sapp contact of my personal pi vendor
+12349014282
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
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how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the what'sapp information for my personal pi vendor.
+12349014282
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the what'sapp number of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Message: +12349014282 VIA Whatsapp.
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the what'sapp contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
+12349014282
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just what'sapp this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
+12349014282
1. Bear Market Retiree Income
Submitted by Larry Frank Sr. on Thu, 08/02/2012 - 3:00pm
Many retirees’ biggest fear is losing their money in a bear market. How
much can you afford to withdraw from your retirement portfolio when the
market shrinks the principal?
Some retirees structure their portfolios so they won´t lose principal, and
they live off the interest. But interest income usually goes down in
economic hard times because the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to
stimulate the economy. For example, if the retiree starts with 5%
interest, each $100,000 generates $5,000 per year (before taxes). If
interest rates drop from 5% to 4%, income drops to $4,000.
Other retirees reaching for yield, meaning they invest in risky securities
like junk bonds. That does not protect their principal very well.
For a prudent balanced approach for income, consider a total
return strategy, which recognizes that income can come from many
sources – and also recognizes that inflation is a factor in a retirement
plan. That’s because retirement spans many years, and inflation eats
away at your money.
Portfolio values go up and down. The question for the retiree is: How
much up and down are you comfortable with?
Beyond all that is the issue of how to manage your portfolio prudently
during retirement so that you live comfortably. During good economic
times, portfolio balances grow and, during poor ones, they decline. In
both, you need to withdraw money from the principal to live on, and don’t
want to take out too much.
The figure below lists sustainable withdrawal percentages at various
ages. As I showed in a previous article using this table, Withdraw 4% in
Retirement, the upper segment is labeled POF 10%. POF means
Probability of Failure, and it measures the odds that your money won’t
2. last through retirement. The lower segment covers a 30% chance of
failure.
This figure and its conclusions come from research by me and my
collaborators, published in the November 2011 edition of the Journal of
Financial Planning.
Let’s look at a sustainable withdrawal percentage for a 65-year-old, who
is concerned with passing on his money to heirs, so his in
the bequest category. His safest withdrawal rate is 4.11%. That
translates to spending, for each $100,000 in his portfolio, $4,110 for the
current year, regardless of interest rates or market actions.
What if markets go down during the year? At what point should you
consider reducing spending just a little to improve future portfolio
balances for retirement needs? When the economy is poor, the natural
tendency is to reduce spending.
The lower panel in the figure, with its 30% probability of failure, has
a higher drawdown rate. That rate rises in retirement due to a decline in
portfolio value.
Pardon me while we do a little math so you can see where the numbers
come from. Let’s take our $4,110 amount from the example above.
An annual drawdown rate (DR%) equals the annual dollar amount
withdrawn ($Y) divided by the total portfolio value ($X), or $Y / $X =
DR%. What value would $X need to be in this example using $4,110
from above so that DR% reaches the higher drawdown rate (5.21%) in
the lower panel?
Thus, $4,110 divided by 5.21% in the lower panel = $78,887, which is the
portfolio value at which we should reduce our spending. Of course,
reducing spending prior to this point is more prudent because this means
you are taking fewer dollars off of a declining balance earlier. That’s a
good thing.
Okay, but what do we need to reduce spending to? We want to get back
to a lower drawdown rate, which is 4.11% in this example. Now we use
the lower portfolio value $78,887 we just calculated in the basic formula
$X times DR% = $Y: $78,887 times 4.11% = our new annual retirement
income, $3242.
3. You also may use the above method to monitor your retirement. Simply
substitute 4.52% or 5.29% for initial values respectively (upper panel), and
for poor market values substitute 5.69% and 6.53% respectively (lower
panel) if you are age 65, for example.
The 30% panel shows it is increasingly more likely you will run out of
money withdrawing from your retirement fund as compared to the 10%
panel values. As your drawdown rate goes up, your portfolio values go
down. The opposite happens when portfolio values go up, which is good
because this signals an ability to spend a bit more to replace that old car,
repair the roof, visit the grandkids, etc.
It really does not matter what the markets do on any given day since they
always are noisy. That noise is what makes people nervous. But if people
know what portfolio balances really matter, then they can simply ignore
the daily noise.
The value of this exercise is twofold: first, you now have a portfolio value
in mind ahead of time, WHEN you should reduce spending; second, you
now have a drawdown value in mind ahead of time, WHAT you would
reduce spending to. This last point is useful because you can evaluate
your expenses during worrisome times to see where you might cut back,
rather than waiting.
The art here is having a sense to distinguish between market declines that
are cyclical based on normal investor perceptions, and market declines
that are a result of systemic stresses such as those experienced in 2008.
This is where an experienced advisor may come in handy.
This strategy to measure and manage your portfolio during market
declines does not prevent loss of portfolio value. Rather, it is a method
precisely for such occasions and recognizes that markets, and portfolio
values, go up and down.
Follow AdviceIQ on Twitter at @adviceiq
Larry R Frank Sr., CFP, is a Registered Investment Adviser (California) in
Roseville, Calif. He is the author of the book, Wealth Odyssey. He has an
MBA with a finance concentration and B.S. cum laude in physics with
which he views the world of money dynamically. He has peer-reviewed
research published in the Journal of Financial
Planning. www.blog.BetterFinancialEducation.com.
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