1. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
What’s
Retailing?!
going on in

2. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Conclusions
Promotion objectives differ between manufacturers and retailers
Brand versus category and store consequences
Limited number of promotions result in Store Traffic
Promo pression is still growing!
Prognosis GfK: 20% in 2015
Promotion results differ per target group
Households go for the 1+1

3. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015

4. 4
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Western wind creates more promotion pressure!
34%
USA
30%
UK
19%
SPAIN
15%
NL
17%
Germany

5. 5
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Promotion pressure is growing!

6. 6
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
NB: basis bestedingen (%)
supermarkten
116125 114 130 124 133 132 149 144
Promotion targets differ per retailer; adjust the promotion policy per retailer.
Albert Heijn households with children for large shopping trips, C1000 traffic!
Ontwikkeling index

7. 7
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Promotion share higher in small shopping trips; especially small shopping trips by
households with children.
Huishoudens zonder kinderen / kleine shopping trip Huishoudens zonder kinderen / grote shopping trip
Huishoudens met kinderen / kleine shopping trip Huishoudens met kinderen / grote shopping trip
Basis: bestedingen, 2009
Promotie-aandeel 2009:
14.5 (=100)
12.0 (=82)17.7 (=122)
15.7 (=108) 11.7 (=81)

8. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Theory of the ‘Sales Promotion Bump’
SalesBump(uplift)
Time (Source:Van Heerde en Neslin, 2008)

9. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Growth effects are positive for retailer and manufacturer.
Timing effects only for consumers.
Sales Promotion
Bump
(100%)
Growth Effects
(33%)
Switch Effects
(33%)
Timing Effects
(33%)
(Source: Van Heerde en Neslin, 2008)

10. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Not all switch effects show equal results!
Switch Effects
CANNIBALIZATION CATEGORY SWITCH STORE SWITCHBRAND SWITCH
Suppliers’
perspective
Retail perspective
(Source:Van Heerde en Neslin, 2008)

11. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
2009 versie opvragen bij
EFMI
PROF.
LEEFLANG
(RUG)
TOM
HEIDMAN
(C1000)

12. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Prof. Leeflang: Avoid price promotions!
 Avoid
price promotions
 Nil effects on long
term price promotions
 Brand equity does not
profit from price
promotions

13. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Tom Heidman: Price promotions badly needed!
 Price promotions
badly needed;
 Price promotions have
a positive influence on
price image;
 Price promotions
create traffic in
stores!

14. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
What is meant by traffic?
Category
Traffic
Store
Traffic
€ €

15. 16
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Meat is the most import category to realize store traffic. However, this does apply to
detergents. Yet, promotions on detergents could be of great interest to a retailer.
Store traffic
Detergetns
National Brand: buy 2 pay 1
Beer
National Brand crate: Front or back page
Meat
Minced ground beef: Discont 30%
0%
+ 5,2%
+ 5.7%
+ 3.4%
Softdrinks
National Brand: Front page
+ 2,6%
Subject weeks
Successful subject weeks:
Hamsterweken, Toeterweken, Euroweken

16. 17
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Most traffic for the category is generated via National Brand and Multibuy promotions!
Category traffic: Detergents promotions
 National brand promotions generate significantly more category traffic than
Private Label promotions
 On average multibuy promotions generate more category traffic than
other promotion types like premium and single price off promotions
... but which type of multibuy promotion should I, being a retailer or manufacturer, bring in
to achieve maximal category traffic?
+ 11.2% + 29.5%
+ 36.9%

17. 18
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Buy 2, pay 1 promotions generate traffic for most categories.
X for Y promotions are the least successful for multibuy promotions.
Category traffic: Detergents multibuy promotions: + 36.9%
X for Y promotion: e.g. 2 pieces for 5.99 + 29.9% (index 81)*
2e half price + 58.2% (index 158)
Buy 3, pay 3 + 48.5% (index 132)
Buy 2, pay 1 + 69.1% (index 187)
* Index 81: 29.9% (x for y) divided by 36.9% (overall multibuy)

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GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015

19. 20
GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Category traffic: Detergents multibuy promotions
Index per type of promotion: households with children vs overall
Households with children prefer 1 + 1 promotions
2e half price
HH with children
1+1
3 =2

20. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Conclusions
Promotion objectives differ between manufacturers and retailers
Brand versus category and store effects
Limited number of promotions result in Store Traffic
National Brand: Frontpage
Promopressure is still growing!
Prognosis GfK: 20% in 2015
Promotion results differ per target group
Households go for the 1+1

21. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Take aways
Understand the effect of your own promotions

22. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Take aways
Formulate the goals for your promotion policy
together with your retailer

23. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
Take aways
Evaluate and show the expected effects
once a year

24. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
ABS
Laurent de Groof
Managing Consultant ABS
Tel: +31-(0)162-384 363
E-mail:
laurent.de.groof@gfk.nl

25. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015
ABS proven to be effective
ABS
Promotion Management
Media Management
Price Management
Target-Group Management

26. GfK Consumer Tracking What’s going on in Retailing – Laurent de Groof 5 juni 2015