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The commercial influence of newsbrands

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Benchmarketing’s Sally Dickerson reveals new findings on the power of newsbrands in the multimedia mix.

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The commercial influence of newsbrands

  1. 1. The commercial influence of newsbrands Sally Dickerson managing director Benchmarketing #shiftnorth
  2. 2. The ROI study Sales return A meta-analysis of 500+ econometric models 2011 – 2016
  3. 3. Analysis conducted by Sally Dickerson, managing director of effectiveness consultancy The ROI study Part of the Omnicom Media Group A graduate in Mathematics from Oxford, Sally joined Mars UK as a market research analyst, later joining their Management Science division. She co-founded The Decision Shop, part of Bates/Cordiant then in 1999 joined the then OMD group and set up ROI (Return on Investment) focused on market mix modelling, which became OMD Metrics, then BrandScience, and is now Annalect Marketing Sciences. In 2016 Sally created a new consultancy business, Benchmarketing, running strategic quantitative consultancy projects using meta analysis. She has also contributed to over 30 IPA advertising effectiveness awards, been an IPA effectiveness award judge, and run marketing effectiveness masterclasses for the Marketing Society and Chartered Institute of Marketing. She was a judge on the inaugural Cannes Creative Effectiveness Lions panel, in 2011 and again in 2013.
  4. 4. 3 key questions 1 How effective are campaigns that use print newsbrands versus those that do not? 2 Do digital newsbrands improve effectiveness? And what impact do print newsbrands have on the effectiveness of other media channels? 3 What proportion of the budget should be spent on print newsbrands to deliver optimum total campaign ROI?
  5. 5. The evidence Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by three times on average 1 Digital newsbrands improve the effectiveness of print and print newsbrands make TV twice as effective and online display four times as effective 2 3 Spend on print newsbrands should return to 2013 levels, and can be boosted further by use of digital newsbrands Source: Benchmarketing analysis of 500+ econometric models
  6. 6. Retail Travel & Transport Automotive Finance Combined services FMCG The study analysed six categories
  7. 7. Retail Combined services Today we will cover Automotive Finance
  8. 8. How has adspend evolved in the last five years?
  9. 9. SMI data provides a representative picture of actual media mix Actual media spend from booking data provided by 65% of UK agencies Data across all above the line media Detailed breakdown of digital spend across display, video and paid search Breakdown of newsbrand spend across print and digital Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)
  10. 10. 13.7% 2013 11.9% 2014 9.7% 2015 14.4% 2012 15.4% 2011 Across all categories, total newsbrand spend has declined since 2011 Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
  11. 11. 50 % 0% Digital channels accounted for a third of media spend in 2015 TV Cinema OOH Radio Magazines Print newsbrands Online newsbrands Other digital display Digital video Search 43.0% 1.4% 9.4% 3.6% 3.4% 7.6% 2.1% 11.1% 5.8% 12.6% 9.7% 31.6% Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
  12. 12. 11.4% 2013 9.6% 2014 7.6% 2015 12.5% 2012 13.7% 2011 Across all categories print newsbrand spend has declined since 2011 Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
  13. 13. 27.1% 2013 22.3% 2014 16.5% 2015 28.1% 2012 30.1% 2011 In retail, print newsbrands remain the #2 channel despite the decline Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
  14. 14. 9.8% 2013 8.3% 2014 7.7% 2015 10.7% 2012 13.1% 2011 In finance, spend in print newsbrands has declined less sharply Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
  15. 15. Has the pendulum swung too far?
  16. 16. Our exploration
  17. 17. Advertising x medium and message PR, Media mentions, Buzz Pricing vs competitors Store universe changes Product/Range changes Brand awareness/perceptions Competitor marketing Competitor routes to market Technological change Seasonality Economic change Econometrics – identifying and assigning a weight to the ingredients driving sales
  18. 18. Calculating revenue return on investment (RROI) Base Distribution 1 Distribution 2 Promotions Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Channel 5
  19. 19. Calculating revenue return on investment (RROI) Spend £m Sales £m due to spend RROI Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Channel 5 Total £2.5 £0.5 £1.5 £1.0 £0.5 £6.0 £3.0 £0.5 £3.0 £1.5 £0.6 £8.6 1.20 1.00 2.00 1.50 1.20 1.43
  20. 20. A meta analysis of multiple econometric cakes
  21. 21. R² = 0.9556 £0.0 £0.2 £0.4 £0.6 £0.8 £1.0 £1.2 £1.4 £1.6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% RevenueROI Print newsbrands % of total communications spend Defining the relationship between spend and revenue return Each dot on the graph represents a case in our Results Vault Here the data suggests as the % of print newsbrands in the mix increases, so does effectiveness This is an example chart, not real data
  22. 22. Creating tertile groups of cases shows the revenue return for low, medium and high spend levels £0.0 £0.2 £0.4 £0.6 £0.8 £1.0 £1.2 £1.4 £1.6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% RevenueROI % of total communications spend £0.0 £0.5 £1.0 £1.5 Tertiles of % of total communications spend This is an example chart, not real data
  23. 23. 1 How effective are campaigns that use print newsbrands versus those that do not?
  24. 24. £9.08 £25.18 £18.82 £18.25 Total campaign revenue ROI Low 2-20% Medium 20-31% High 31-100% Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in retail No print newsbrand spend 2015 spend levels 16.5%Retail Print newsbrands boost total campaign ROI by 2.8 times, but the category is failing to spend at optimum levels Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
  25. 25. £1.49 £8.47 £6.76 £3.91 Total campaign revenue ROI Low 2-5% Medium 7-22% High 22-37% Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend No print newsbrand spend 2015 spend levels 7.9% FinanceAutomotive Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by up to 5.7 times but advertisers are missing out on large additional revenues by not including newsbrands in the mix Finance 2015 spend levels 7.9% Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
  26. 26. Advertising carryover rates measure the time period over which the media will drive a sales response Determining the ‘adstock’ – or the memory effect of advertising
  27. 27. Adstock greatly influences the total return of a campaign 0 20 40 60 80 100 adstock 80% grps 0 20 40 60 80 100 adstock 30% grps 80% per week is typical of a long term branding message 30% per week is typical of a shorter term promotional message
  28. 28. Print newsbrands go on working for much longer than online in the finance category 391% higher impact at day 7 0 7 14 21 Online Newspapers
  29. 29. Even in the short-term retail category, print newsbrands add 9% more impact on a weekly basis 0 7 14 21 Online Newspapers 9% higher impact at day 7
  30. 30. Print newsbrands outperform online for all service categories Automotive Finance Retail Travel & transport Combined services Category Print newsbrands Online 69% 54% 47% 47% 48% 60% 11% 43% 39% 37%
  31. 31. 2 Do digital newsbrands improve effectiveness? And what impact do print newsbrands have on the effectiveness of other media channels?
  32. 32. Adding digital to print improves print revenue ROI by up to five times in retail x5
  33. 33. Print newsbrands make TV spend work twice as hard £6.49 £12.22 £5.72 £10.82 TV revenue ROI Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18% Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services No print newsbrand spend Combined services Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015. Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)
  34. 34. Print newsbrands boost online display and video by up to four times£12.46 £20.96 £17.42 £55.98 Online display revenue ROI No print newsbrand spend Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services High 12-18% Combined services Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015. Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)
  35. 35. £4.84 £12.10 £13.33 £8.28 Online display revenue ROI Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18% Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance No print newsbrand spend 2015 spend levels 7.9% FinanceAutomotive Print newsbrands also boost online RROIs by an average of 2.3 times in finance Finance Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
  36. 36. £4.02 £40.45 £11.34 £55.82 Radio revenue ROI Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37% Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services No print newsbrand spend 2015 spend levels 7.9% FinanceAutomotive Combined services: print newsbrands boost radio revenue by up to 10 times Finance Combined services Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015. Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)
  37. 37. £1.70 £3.21 £0.45 £3.15 Radio revenue ROI Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37% Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance No print newsbrand spend 2015 spend levels 7.9% Finance Print newsbrands boost radio revenue by up to 1.9 times in finance Finance Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
  38. 38. 3 What proportion of the budget should be spent on print newsbrands to deliver optimum total campaign ROI?
  39. 39. The data from the meta analysis allows us to build response curves for each channel, by which we calculate the optimum split for any given budget Revenue £m Media investment £m 800 900 Online Display TV Online Search Newspapers VOD Outdoor Magazines Radio TV Sponsorship Cinema Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
  40. 40. 0% 13% 22% 24% 26% 26% 26% 27% 27% 26% 24% 22% 21% 21% 20% 19% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Total annual campaign budget £m Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix for all budget levels in supermarket retail Recommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
  41. 41. Retail – Supermarkets £40m 16.5% 27% Category Typical spend p.a. £m Print newsbrand spend % 2015 Print newsbrand % spend for maximum campaign effect Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
  42. 42. 0% 0% 0% 8% 15% 19% 21% 23% 24% 25% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 total annual campaign budget £m Above annual budgets of £5m+ print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix in non-grocery retail Recommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI
  43. 43. 11% 62% 51% 34% 26% 21% 17% 15% 13% 12% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix for finance brands Total annual campaign budget £m Recommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
  44. 44. Finance Typical spend p.a. £m £25m (higher spends £50m) Print newsbrand spend % 2015 8% Print newsbrand % spend for maximum campaign effect 21% 13% for higher spends Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
  45. 45. 2016 2017 11.4% 2013 9.6% 2014 7.6% 2015 12.5% 2012 13.7% 2011 The pendulum has swung too far for print newsbrands – and advertisers are missing out Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)
  46. 46. The evidence Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by three times on average 1 Print newsbrands make TV twice as effective and online display four times as effective 2 3 Spend on print newsbrands should return to 2013 levels, and can be boosted further by use of digital newsbrands
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