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1
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Resilient
Compounders
Workshop (2)
Detecting
Accounting
Frauds
Ahead of the
Curve
Workshop (3)
Tipping Point
Analysis
Workshop (4)
Icy
Discernment
(冰鉴) of
Management
Quality
Inner
Compass:
Bamboo
Innovator,
Values, Self-
Awareness
“From the Fund Management Jungles: Value Investing
Exposed and Explored” Workshop Series
Workshop 1: Wide Moat Analysis
Accounting Frauds
Value Traps & Cigar Butts
Misgovernance,
Expropriation of Assets
Miasmic Asian
Capital Jungles
Miasmic Asian
Capital Jungles
空手套白狼
草船借箭
老鼠仓 巧舌如簧
Insiders’ Pump-and-Dump
(谁是庄家?)
Bamboo Innovators bend, not break,
even in the most terrifying storm that
snap the mighty resisting oak tree. It
survives, therefore it conquers.
Workshop (1)
“Emptiness”
in Business
Model &
Wide Moat
Analysis
2
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
“My grandfather used to say occasionally, “What would I do with
all the money that I have already lost?” He always lost money in
speculations. From childhood on, he was more interested in his
father’s credit business than in the animal skin trade; as I said
before, he learned the systematic side of banking from August
Gerstle. The Augsburg banker was heavily engaged in financing
industrial enterprises; for example, he invested in
Maschinenefabrik Augsburg Nurenberg (MAN), a truck
manufacturer the size of Freightliner, and Rudolf Diesel, the
inventor of the diesel engine.”
- The late Hans Julius Baer, builder of Julius Baer, in “It’s Not All
About Money: Memoirs of a Private Banker”
Foundation of Wealth Is to Invest In Resilient Compounders
3
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Midas: “I’m an investment guru!” Retire rich and travel
around the world!
4
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) Midas Vs Singapore STI
Index: “I’m a SUPER investment guru!”
5
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Midas Vs Shanghai Index: In a bull market, everyone is
deluded into thinking they are a guru, inc the pros…
Fund managers who are “old hands” in the Asian capital markets during the
decade of 1998-2008 would wink at each other and ask the “all-important”
first question, “Who’s the ‘insider’ (Zhuang Jia) (庄家)?”, a formula that
worked wonders pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) when such aggressive
growth stories packaged by “insiders” in a certain sexy theme delivered the
“performance”. They might even work together with the “insiders” to
engineer prices and volumes. Pre-GFC in Asia, it is far more important to know
the movements of these “insiders” than the business fundamentals.
6
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Midas, Raffles Education, Tat Hong (Crane Rental):
Who’s the “Insider”/“Zhuang Jia” (庄家)?
“Catalysts” such as corporate news announcement of “sexy”
projects or M&As are, in fact, false signals created and
released by “insiders” (庄家) to inject “action” into the
stock, luring investors in and then offloading to them in a
pump-and-dump cycle. Prices, volumes and technical
indicators such as breakouts are controlled by them as they
have established the inventory of stock (老鼠仓). They are
cleverer and more powerful than you think. Come, come,
the stock is down X% from its highs and imagine the
multibagger returns you can reap if the stock goes back up!
“Zhuang Jia”
dump (Part 1)
“Zhuang Jia”
dump (Part 2)
“Zhuang Jia”
pump (Part 2)
“Zhuang Jia”
pump (Part 1)
7
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Midas, Raffles Education, Tat Hong, Sitra (Furniture)
Vs Shanghai Index
It’s all a rigged game? Minority investors always lose? Particularly
post-GFC? Why then does our reputable Singapore regulator/
government allow this to happen? They tolerated like U.S. SEC
did for SAC’s Steve Cohen because they need one word for
Singapore; guess… When the right time comes, hopefully the
Singapore regulators and elites can act like the SEC in rounding
up these Cohen-like “Zhuang Jia”. 不是不报,是时辰未到。
8
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Midas Vs COMP: Losing Faith in Fundamental Analysis?
Zhuzhou CSR (3898 HK), CAG (563 HK), Hollysys (HOLI), Jinxi Axle (600495 CH)
Be realistic, Singapore is a fringe market for non-STI stocks for institutional
fund managers who are constrained by liquidity caps in their investments.
The real “Zhuang Jia” go for bigger markets to manipulate, i.e. HK, China
and US. Many small-mid caps, even though there are some outstanding
companies, are fertile ground for the Zhuang Jia.
9
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Post GFC (Global Financial Crisis): Midas Vs “Green Line”
Normal Singaporeans Who Take the MRT Ride Will See It Every Day
(Revealed During Workshop)! The “Poor” Can Beat the “Rich”?
Post-GFC is a good time for value investors to identify and
invest in the resilient compounders, whether in Singapore, in
Asia or around the world. Finally!! No more destructive “get-
rich-quick” mindset. Develop independent critical thinking to
be insatiably curious about the things around us. Otherwise,
we will forever be at the mercy of smart wealthy predators
and “Zhuang Jia” who prey on our weaknesses.
10
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
“People are constantly asking me what to invest in, and I always answer the
same way. I say: Do not listen to me – do not listen to anybody. The way
you become a successful investor is by investing only in what you yourself
have a wealth of knowledge about. Everybody knows a lot about
something. Cars, fashion, whatever it is – you know a lot about something.
If you do not know what it is you know a lot about, just step back and take
a look at your daily life. When you walk into a doctor’s waiting room, what
magazines do you pick up? If you turn on a TV, what kind of programs do
you watch? Soon you will probably figure out what your real interests are,
what you are really knowledgeable about.”
- Jim Rogers in “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets”
Jim Rogers’ Advice: Do Not Listen To Anybody! Invest Only
In What You Yourself Are Knowledgeable About.
11
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
“If you are keen on cars, read everything you can about the automobile industry. You will know when
something is about to happen that constitutes a major, positive change. Then start following up. Read more
about whatever you find. Maybe a new fuel-injection system is being developed, one that is superior to
and cheaper than that which is currently in use, and you know that when it goes into production, it will
take up a large share of the market. Or it could be something like a new highway. Maybe people can drive
someplace where they could never drive before. Maybe new hotels or shopping centers are certain to open
up there. The fundamental strategy is this: stay with what you know and expand on it. If somebody calls
you up and says, oh, my gosh, there is this great new computer process … ignore it. You do not know
anything about computers. Cars are what you know. Concentrate on what you know and any changes you
see – you will see a major change coming long before I ever will, long before anybody on Wall Street will,
because cars are you passion; they are what you are sitting around reading about all the time. Learn to
think in the appropriate terms: this is something new; this is something different; this is a shift in direction.
Anything new or different leads to consequences down the road. You have to learn to think around corners.
You will know before anybody on Wall Street when something good is happening. You will know it is time to
buy. You will also know when to sell, because you will see before anybody else that the great change you
noticed a few years ago is starting to reverse itself – someone is building a cheaper product, the Chinese
are building a better product. The competition has intensified. You will know it is time to sell long before
the people on Wall Street.”
- Jim Rogers in “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets”
Jim Rogers: If your interest and passion is on cars…
12
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationIf you are mad about buses?
13
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationYutong Bus: Resilient During the GFC
14
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationYutong Bus: Long-Term Performance Since Listing Vs Index
15
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationYutong Bus: Long-Term Performance Vs Midas
16
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationYutong Bus (Global) Vs Vicom (Singapore)
17
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Sounds like a lot of knowledge is needed?
If we just like to eat Calbee potato chips?
Yen 10,000 (Present)
Emerging Value Summit Presentation on April 11, 2013
18
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
“In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable ‘moats’.”
- Warren Buffett
With unresolved crises on the horizon, investors are often immobilized in making investment decision. “Wait for the clouds to clear” is the
mantra. Value investing appears to provide a way out to see opportunities in cloudy weather by using the “cheap” price signal to identify
“out-of-favor” neglected stocks and invest in them for “reversion back to mean”. Hence, pick stocks with “cheap” valuations based on
conventional metrics and ratios – how much lower can they go anyway? – and they will bounce back up to their historical average levels. Or
simply wait for a market dip, or a crash, before declaring some magical list of top ten stock tips to invest in. This is NOT value investing.
When Li Ning, the “Nike of China”, announced that its founder is going into industrial park and property development in September 2010,
the stock has been a darling, having a competitive “moat” with brand recognition and it has recovered strongly since its bottom in March
2009 by climbing 140% to HK$24 per share. Oh, it is already expected that the market will react negatively to the property news, now it is
down 20% to HK$19, value stock, be contrarian, BUY! Down another 20% to HK$15, getting cheaper and it’s out-of-favor, it will bounce back
up, BUY! And the value investor catches the falling knife until below HK$5 now; while Nike hits an all-time high.
How do value investors distinguish whether “cheap” stocks are value traps or opportunity? Without an understanding of the underlying
business model dynamics and analyzing the durability of the economic moat, an investment decision based on price and macro signals and
historical valuation metrics can be misleading and costly. Without an understanding of business model, one would also have sold Wal-mart
after it was listed in 1972 as the stock crashed over 60% in the next three years. Wal-mart went on to compound 1,200-fold since 1972 to
over US$250 billion in market cap – a $100,000 investment in Wal-Mart becomes a $120 million treasure trove. So why is Wal-mart able to
bounce back to scale new heights but the same cannot be said for the “Nike of China”?
Can resilient business models – Bamboo Innovators - outperform even in stormy periods? When Shanghai Composite Index crashed 70%
from its peak of 6,000 in October 2007 to below 2,000 at the bottom in March 2009, Yunnan Baiyao was UP around 8%. As the index
bounce to 2,200, still down 60% from its peak, Baiyao is up over 220% during the same period. Increasingly, such resilient business models
are outperforming in Asia and globally; while the “cheap” stocks get cheaper and they become the fertile ground for “insiders” (庄家) who
manipulate prices and volumes and inject “action” via exciting corporate news announcement of “sexy” projects or M&As, luring investors
in and then offloading to them in a pump-and-dump cycle. Sophisticated value investors can overcome poor and uncertain macro conditions
by investing in resilient compounders because they have their own internal rhythm to create value, like the bamboo, which bend, not break
even in the wildest of storm that would have snapped the once-mighty oak tree.
Workshop 1 of 4:
In Search of Compounding Stocks in Uncertain Times
19
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Program Outline and Key Learning Points:
LEARN the R.E.S.-ilience factors in the business model and economic moat analysis of how Bamboo Innovators create
extraordinary value, particularly the “E” factor which stands for “emptiness” in the business model.
GAIN the surprising insight of sophisticated institutional investors who understand why growth in sales, profit and
tangible asset may not translate to market capitalization growth and sustainable share price gains.
ATTAIN the critical knowledge of 12 types of sophisticated institutional investors that climbing from $50 million to $1
billion in market cap takes an entirely different business model dynamics as compared to scaling up sustainably from
$1 billion to $20 billion in market cap.
RECOGNIZE the 12 types of business models and their profit patterns and acquire the ability to scan through different
businesses in various industries to understand the key levers for growth ahead of the investment curve.
UNDERSTAND why and how businesses hit a stall point in growth and without a transformation in business model,
bigger can be riskier. Thus “Grow or Perish” become “Grow AND Perish”
DISSECT a wide range of real-world cases of Asian and global Bamboo Innovators in various industries and understand
the intricacies of their business models, their critical success – and failure – factors.
UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, descriptive facts and “checklists” you
have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment
decision-making.
20
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Frauds. Warren Buffett commented in the recent Berkshire Hathaway AGM 2013 that when he’s reading through
financial statements, he’d find companies he was virtually certain are frauds. In response to a shareholder’s question on
what did he find that made him so certain, both Buffett and Munger replied that “there isn’t a 40-point checklist” and
that value investors need to understand the interaction between the underlying business model dynamics and the
people running the enterprise when examining the numbers.
In Asia, with outbreaks of accounting frauds and corporate governance lapse erupting on a systematic basis at the firm
level, how does a value investor go about generating sustainable outsized returns? To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, to
murder (to engage in earnings management) is easy, but to dispose the murdered body (to expropriate or tunnel out
the cash and assets out of the company) is harder as it is detectable by the serious institutional investor with his or her
keen observation of the various information signals and clues.
It would be premature to speak of “fundamental” analysis using possibly rigged accounting numbers due to propping
and tunneling to fashion elaborate but “garbage-in-garbage-out” quant valuation models. Even “technical” analysis can
be misleading given prices and volumes are often manipulated by the “insiders” (庄家) who establish the stock
inventory (老鼠仓), luring investors in and then offloading in a pump-and-dump cycle. Such exploits by insiders is made
easy as most stocks in Asia are still relatively small-cap and illiquid, given that the median market cap of the listed
universe of 23,000 stocks in Asia is around $80 million and over 80% are under a billion dollar in market cap.
Thus, the use of “fundamental” or “technical” analysis, or its combination – without a Mungerian I-O accounting
framework using the Bamboo Innovator way – can lead to a false sense of confidence that clever insiders exploit at your
expense.
Workshop 2 of 4:
Detecting Frauds Ahead of the Curve
21
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Program Outline and Key Learning Points:
UNDERSTAND the importance of the Mungerian I-O (Incentive-Opportunity) accounting framework to adapt value
investing principles in Asia.
LEARN the three accounting steps that “set-up” companies commonly use to expropriate assets and the ORECTA and
other information signals that sophisticated institutional investors use in their cutting-edge empirical research tool-bag.
DEVELOP the ability to scan through thick annual reports and financial statements for the Seven Accounting Sins.
DEMYSTIFY the various techniques in “earnings management”, “revenue recognition management”, “real activity
management” and “income smoothing” and differentiate between opportunistic bookkeeping mischief and
discretionary signaling of private information of leading indicators of firm performance by management to investors.
ATTAIN the application tools used by sophisticated institutional investors in the accounting of words, that is, textual
analysis of disclosures which are an important source of information with value relevance about the firm.
DISSECT actual cases of capex-related fraud in prominent Asian listed companies that are invested by reputable fund
management institutions who are also caught flat-footed when things unravel.
RE-EXAMINE accounting fundamentals that universities impart without the relevant context of value investing,
including the use and abuse of the accruals anomaly (AA) in investing strategies adopted by sophisticated institutional
investors in various forms.
UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, “descriptive” facts and “checklists” you
have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment
decision-making.
22
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Workshop 3 of 4:
Tipping Point Analysis in Value Investing
Waiting is the main drawback in value investing. Investors often lose patience with their stocks when they don’t
perform in the short-term to produce a feel-good comfort that we are right in our stock calls. That’s why fund managers
under pressure to deliver short-term results always ask, “Any upcoming catalysts?” This cannot be more misleading
when there is an insufficient understanding in the scalability and resilience of the underlying business model.
When iPod was introduced on November 10, 2001, Apple’s share price was US$9.40 per share and had jumped to
US$12 by year end. Those who had loaded up on the “iPod effect” or “new product” catalyst suffered for the next year-
and-a-half as the shares plunged to US$6.70 in April 2003. Disappointed, momentum traders cloaked under the label of
fund managers sell the stock. Then a “tipping point” moment happened in April 2003 to bring about the extraordinary
60-fold returns in the next decade to US$428 per share, or US$400 billion in market cap. What was this “tipping point”
event? One such “tipping point” event is the launch of the iTunes Store on April 28, 2003.
Serious institutional investors spend most of their time not in looking at stock price screens or gaining “insider”
knowledge of “catalysts” to generate alpha or excess returns, but in analyzing the interaction of business model
dynamics with “tipping point” events so that they literally hear and see the “clicking” sound when they occur to
produce a resilient compounder. It is our task to have a systematic framework to understand and identify “tipping
point” events when they occur to stay ahead of the momentum traders and colluding insiders (庄家) on the investing
curve.
23
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Program Outline and Key Learning Points:
UNDERSTAND the stock market reactions to a wide-range of “catalysts”:
“Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD)”,
“Capital management programs” (e.g. dividends, capital reduction, share buybacks, bonus issue, rights, splits,
share/debt placement) and “Financial structure changes”,
“Analyst coverage and recommendations”,
and many more.
GAIN the surprising insight to why certain positive catalyst signals can be misleading noise, for instance, insider
purchase can be negative. And also why overreaction to certain negative catalyst signals can be an opportunity.
DEVELOP the ability to distinguish between “catalysts” with unsustainable short-term effects and “tipping point” with
long-term value relevance.
LEARN where M&A pays and where it strays and the pitfalls.
DISSECT a wide range of real-world cases of Asian and global Bamboo Innovators in various industries and understand
the tipping point in their business models.
UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, descriptive facts and “checklists” you
have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment
decision-making.
24
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Workshop 4 of 4:
Bet on the Jockey (Management) or
the Horse (Business Model)?
“Good jockeys will do well on good horses, but not on broken-down nags. When a management team with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation
for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” - Warren Buffett
“I would rather not be able to read words than not be able to read people.”
- Zeng Guofan, Qing dynasty statesman, in “Icy Discernment” (冰鉴), a book on reading people and ranked alongside Chinese classics “Three Kingdoms” and “Sun-Tzu:
Art of War”
“Privileged” information pays? Fund managers working with sell-side analysts and bankers are deemed to have an unfair competitive edge because of their selective
access to management who may convey “private” information either about the business or about themselves through their non-verbal communication cues. So then,
what are the tools and techniques using public information that serious institutional investors employ to assess management quality and governance, as well as to
distinguish whether founder-led companies and family businesses can still scale greater heights or that their past-success halo status had worn out and starts to impede
the growth of the firm?
Does management quality (jockey) really matter so much, as even Warren Buffett believe a good jockey cannot race well on a broken-down horse (business model)? In
Asia, “management quality” boils down to “founder quality”. “One-man show” is common where the entrepreneurial founders (“jockey”) are crucial in driving the
success during the formative stage of the company’s growth story, particularly during the past decade when companies emerge from the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis.
Investors become enamored by many such darling stocks whose market cap climbed 10 to 20 times from under $50 million to the half-billion to billion-dollar market
cap. A rising tide lifts all boats and jockey-led companies have risen higher. The 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has been a game-changer. Serious institutional
value investors understand that it takes an entirely business model dynamics to scale up from billion dollar to $10 to $20 billion market cap. This is an important reason
why former market darlings in Singapore, including Midas, Raffles Education, Ezra, Swiber, and so on, have generated dizzying stock returns only pre-GFC but are
hovering around or below $1 billion for a protracted period post-GFC. Yet, there are successful founder-led Asian companies which continued to break new grounds,
such as TSMC, whose market cap of $100 billion stood in sharp contrast to Singapore’s loss-making, debt-laden Chartered Semicon which was sold for $1.8 billion, even
though both companies are started at around the same time in 1987. Same industry, same business, but the jockey at TSMC makes a difference in winning the race. So
how can value investors spot not only the thousand-mile horse (千里马) and resilient business model but also the worthy outstanding rider who can bring the best out
of the horse to generate compounding returns?
An important emerging trend in Asia is the “change of guard” in founder-led businesses, with the second generation scions, assisted by professional managers, stepping
up to scale their family businesses through an emphasis of innovation and governance to compete regionally and globally. So what are the family business and
governance dynamics that value investors need to watch out for as Asian family-controlled companies run by aging patriarchs and matriarchs undergo this “change of
guard” transition in the next decade which could override the supposed well-known advantages of the family model? Also, can family members hate each other and
still build a world-class company? How can value investors employ the ancient Chinese wisdom displayed by the astute Qing dynasty statesman Zeng Guofan (曾国藩)
to identify great managers?
25
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Outline and Key Benefits:
•LEARN the application tools and techniques used by sophisticated institutional investors in the accounting of words,
that is, textual analysis of disclosures which are an important source of information with value relevance about the
firm.
•UNDERSTAND the framework to sense and detect the quality of management and corporate governance, how leaders
are better (or worse) under pressure and bring out the best (or worse) in themselves and others during difficult times.
•DEVELOP the insight using the Bamboo Innovator framework of how “Sheath” leadership encourage and protect the
emergence of innovative ideas and how they cultivate “Rootedness” in the corporate culture to be trusting and ready to
risk in new innovations.
•ATTAIN the knowledge of what to look out for when investing in family-controlled businesses to assess the
opportunities and pitfalls.
•ADAPT the ancient Chinese wisdom of “Icy Discernment” by people-reader Zeng Guofan to view management quality
afresh.
•UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, descriptive facts and “checklists” you
have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment
decision-making.
Workshop 4 of 4:
Bet on the Jockey (Management) or
the Horse (Business Model)?
26
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Published Articles & Research (2013):
• Snapped By Regulatory Storms? Braving Through Berkshire’s Former Iron Mountain to Asia,
July 31, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• From Buffett’s Scott Fetzer to Asia, Are Oddballs Odious or Opportunities? July 24, 2013
(BeyondProxy)
• Are Boring Businesses Resilient or Risky? Pitfalls and Opportunities in Europe and Asia, July
17, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• Supply- and Demand-side Moat Economics in Europe and Asia, July 10, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• “Must-Have” vs “Nice-To-Have”: Exploiting the Sector-Company Gap in Asia, July 3, 2013
(BeyondProxy)
• Institutional Imperative and Differentiating Between the Tech Innovators, the Imitators and
the Swarming Incompetents in Asia, June 27, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• BNSF + JB Hunt = Buffett + Munger = Lollapalooza! How About Asia? June 19, 2013
(BeyondProxy)
• Why Berkshire Hathaway’s McLane Has a Moat, and Are There Similar Companies In Asia?
June 12, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• Investing in Korea: Staying Rational Despite Samsung’s Halo Effect, June 5, 2013
(BeyondProxy)
• Education 2.0 In Indonesia: Inspiring Bamboo Innovators, May 11, 2013 (Jakarta Post)
• Any Benjamin Franklins in Asia? May 9, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• Berkshire Hathaway 2013: Takeaways and Impressions from the Annual Meeting, May 7,
2013 (BeyondProxy)
• Pilgrimage to Omaha + Entrepreneurship, Asian-style! May 1, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• Who’s the Buffett CEO in Asia? Part 1 on China’s Great Wall Motor, April 23, 2016
(BeyondProxy)
• Who’s the Buffett CEO in Asia? Part 2 on Australia’s ARB Corporation, April 26, 2013
(Beyond Proxy)
• Kewpie: Japan’s Heinz and R.E.S.-ilient Bamboo Innovator, April 20, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• Value Investors in Asia: Making Sense of the Micro Vs. Macro Dilemma, April 16, 2013
(BeyondProxy)
• “Be like the bamboo, not the oak tree”, TODAY, 8 April 2013
• “Creating ‘bamboo innovators’ in S’pore”, Straits Times, 1 April 2013
• Detecting Fraud by Scrutinizing the “How” Rather than the “What” of Management
Disclosures, March 22, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
Featured (2013):
• Mental Models: Bamboo Innovator, April 4, 2013 (BeyondProxy)
• The Bamboo Innovator Approach to Investing in Asia, April 4,
2013 (YouTube uploaded by BeyondProxy.com)
• Six Common Accounting Pitfalls at Asian Companies, March 20,
2013 (BeyondProxy)
• Insights into Accounting Pitfalls at Asian Companies, March 21,
2013 (Greatinvestors.TV and Frequency.com)
• Beware of “Other Receivables” Accounting at Asian Companies,
March 26, 2013 (Greatinvestors.TV)
Internationally Featured Value Investor: TEDxWallStreet,
BeyondProxy, GreatInvestors.TV
27
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Some Testimonial From Public Workshop
“I enjoyed today's course. Thanks in particular for having extensively prepared the
notes with examples and for sharing with us your anecdotes on various CEOs and top
executives in Singapore. I found such opinions useful since many of us do not have
access to a company's management outside of a shareholders' meeting so it is
difficult to get a better sense of the management's true character. I also found your
3-point Bamboo Innovators Search Methodology a useful litmus test in filtering
companies for further value analysis. Thanks again for the course and I hope to see
you in a future course soon.”
Charles Guo
“It has been mind-blowing learning from you. The amount of knowledge you shared
is so intensive that I went home and slept till the next day. The case studies you
shared were great.”
Johnny Lee
“You have gave a great lecture yesterday, it was certainly worth spending an entire
Saturday for the course. The things that you have taught is truly unique and thought-
provoking just like your articles on BeyondProxy. The Bamboo Innovator framework
has allowed me to use a more holistic approach towards investing.”
Yeo Shan Rui
28
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
“It has been an interesting and encouraging program. The program has encouraged me to
continue to pursue what I want to do for the company.”
Jismyl Teo Chor Khin, CEO of DMX Technologies Limited
“The content and substance of the Program is original, useful and important. This program
challenged me intellectually and helped me to think critically and learn more effectively.
Overall, I find the Program beneficial to me and my company (rated 5 out of 5).”
Sherlie Young, Senior Manager (Group Finance) of Gallant Ventures Limited
“The program gives a new and refreshing perspective of how companies can be successful
and it is backed by a lot of research with a practical, real-world approach.” “The Program
Director is approachable, authentic and helpful when sharing his insights. Overall, I would
highly recommend this Program to my colleagues and peers (rated 5 out of 5).”
Danny Tan, Manager (Group Finance) of Gallant Ventures Limited
“It is an eye opener for me. With this seminar, I can learn about how companies scale up
successfully.”
Ratnawati, Corporate Accounts Manager of Gallant Ventures Limited
“I have increased my knowledge as a result of taking this Program.” “Overall, I find the
Program beneficial to me and my company and I would highly recommend this Program to
my colleagues and peers (rated 5 out of 5).”
Sun Yi, Managing Director of Sunnic Pte Ltd
Some Testimonial From Corporate Workshop
29
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation
Bamboo: The hardiest and effective natural structure to evolve in
millions of years of restless experiment in cellular life on earth
Even through the strongest hurricanes, the bamboo will bend
but never break; when covered with snow, it will patiently
wait for it to melt down, and then rise up.
And in the end, the bamboo stands tall, green and beautiful.
For the Chinese, the bamboo represents the value of
“uprightness”.
Bamboo is an ancient resident of earth, here before people by some 100 to 200 million years. Its “root-like”
rhizome and “hollow” culm is perhaps the hardiest and effective natural structure to evolve in millions of years
of restless experiment in cellular life on earth, and the most efficient laboratory that has yet appeared for
braiding sunlight, water, and soil into forms which have for centuries proved immensely useful for human needs.
The bamboo culm combines a certain gentle capacity to yield with a strength that rivals steel. 52,000 pounds
per square inch were required to break a good bamboo. Walnut required 22,000 pounds per square inch, while
the steel commonly used for reinforcing concrete required about 60,000 pounds.
Bamboos bend, not break, and remain evergreen even with the onslaught of the atomic bomb. The world’s first
atomic bomb over the city of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, has destroyed streets and houses, charred trees and
grasses to bits. Yet, one living thing stood out. In the very epicenter, a thicket of bamboo stood through the
blast, suffering only one side to be scorched. The sight was an immeasurable encouragement to the war-
shattered citizens. A portion of the bamboo plant is now housed in the Memorial Museum for Peace.
30
《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》
nnovatorBamboo
R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationContact
KB Kee
“Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand and I’ll move the world,” says Archimedes. The long lever
we choose to innovate in the world is hopefully the Bamboo; the place where we stand is Emptiness - when
we empty our heart of prejudices, pride and fear, we become open to the possibilities to innovate – and
Emptiness is rooted in Kindness and Trust.
Bamboo Innovator Institute is set up to establish the thought leadership of resilient value creators around
the world. Koon Boon has been rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund
manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets. He was a fund manager and head of research/analyst at a
Singapore-based investment management organization dedicated to the craft of value investing in Asia. He
had been with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly
outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus flagship Asian fund. He was previously the portfolio manager for
Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. He received his Masters in Finance (magna cum
laude) and double degree in Accountancy and Business Management (both summa cum laude) from the
Singapore Management University (SMU). He had taught accounting at his alma mater in SMU and lectures
at SIM University for working professionals. He had published cutting-edge empirical research in the Special
Issue of Istanbul Stock Exchange 25th Year Anniversary of the Boğaziçi Journal, Review of Social and
Economic Studies, as well as wrote articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media. He
had also presented in top banking and finance conferences in Sydney, Cape Town, HK, Beijing and in the
recent Emerging Value Summit 2013. He is also an internationally-featured value investor in TEDxWallStreet,
Greatinvestors.TV and BeyondProxy.com. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives
in business strategy, macroeconomic and industry trends in Singapore, HK and China.
www.twitter.com/bambooinnovator
bambooinnovator@gmail.com
www.bambooinnovator.com

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Workshop 1: Wide Moat Analysis: In Search of Compounding Stocks in Uncertain Times Preview ("From the Fund Management Jungles: Value Investing Exposed and Explored" Workshop Series)

  • 1. 1 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Resilient Compounders Workshop (2) Detecting Accounting Frauds Ahead of the Curve Workshop (3) Tipping Point Analysis Workshop (4) Icy Discernment (冰鉴) of Management Quality Inner Compass: Bamboo Innovator, Values, Self- Awareness “From the Fund Management Jungles: Value Investing Exposed and Explored” Workshop Series Workshop 1: Wide Moat Analysis Accounting Frauds Value Traps & Cigar Butts Misgovernance, Expropriation of Assets Miasmic Asian Capital Jungles Miasmic Asian Capital Jungles 空手套白狼 草船借箭 老鼠仓 巧舌如簧 Insiders’ Pump-and-Dump (谁是庄家?) Bamboo Innovators bend, not break, even in the most terrifying storm that snap the mighty resisting oak tree. It survives, therefore it conquers. Workshop (1) “Emptiness” in Business Model & Wide Moat Analysis
  • 2. 2 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation “My grandfather used to say occasionally, “What would I do with all the money that I have already lost?” He always lost money in speculations. From childhood on, he was more interested in his father’s credit business than in the animal skin trade; as I said before, he learned the systematic side of banking from August Gerstle. The Augsburg banker was heavily engaged in financing industrial enterprises; for example, he invested in Maschinenefabrik Augsburg Nurenberg (MAN), a truck manufacturer the size of Freightliner, and Rudolf Diesel, the inventor of the diesel engine.” - The late Hans Julius Baer, builder of Julius Baer, in “It’s Not All About Money: Memoirs of a Private Banker” Foundation of Wealth Is to Invest In Resilient Compounders
  • 3. 3 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Midas: “I’m an investment guru!” Retire rich and travel around the world!
  • 4. 4 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) Midas Vs Singapore STI Index: “I’m a SUPER investment guru!”
  • 5. 5 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Midas Vs Shanghai Index: In a bull market, everyone is deluded into thinking they are a guru, inc the pros… Fund managers who are “old hands” in the Asian capital markets during the decade of 1998-2008 would wink at each other and ask the “all-important” first question, “Who’s the ‘insider’ (Zhuang Jia) (庄家)?”, a formula that worked wonders pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) when such aggressive growth stories packaged by “insiders” in a certain sexy theme delivered the “performance”. They might even work together with the “insiders” to engineer prices and volumes. Pre-GFC in Asia, it is far more important to know the movements of these “insiders” than the business fundamentals.
  • 6. 6 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Midas, Raffles Education, Tat Hong (Crane Rental): Who’s the “Insider”/“Zhuang Jia” (庄家)? “Catalysts” such as corporate news announcement of “sexy” projects or M&As are, in fact, false signals created and released by “insiders” (庄家) to inject “action” into the stock, luring investors in and then offloading to them in a pump-and-dump cycle. Prices, volumes and technical indicators such as breakouts are controlled by them as they have established the inventory of stock (老鼠仓). They are cleverer and more powerful than you think. Come, come, the stock is down X% from its highs and imagine the multibagger returns you can reap if the stock goes back up! “Zhuang Jia” dump (Part 1) “Zhuang Jia” dump (Part 2) “Zhuang Jia” pump (Part 2) “Zhuang Jia” pump (Part 1)
  • 7. 7 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Midas, Raffles Education, Tat Hong, Sitra (Furniture) Vs Shanghai Index It’s all a rigged game? Minority investors always lose? Particularly post-GFC? Why then does our reputable Singapore regulator/ government allow this to happen? They tolerated like U.S. SEC did for SAC’s Steve Cohen because they need one word for Singapore; guess… When the right time comes, hopefully the Singapore regulators and elites can act like the SEC in rounding up these Cohen-like “Zhuang Jia”. 不是不报,是时辰未到。
  • 8. 8 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Midas Vs COMP: Losing Faith in Fundamental Analysis? Zhuzhou CSR (3898 HK), CAG (563 HK), Hollysys (HOLI), Jinxi Axle (600495 CH) Be realistic, Singapore is a fringe market for non-STI stocks for institutional fund managers who are constrained by liquidity caps in their investments. The real “Zhuang Jia” go for bigger markets to manipulate, i.e. HK, China and US. Many small-mid caps, even though there are some outstanding companies, are fertile ground for the Zhuang Jia.
  • 9. 9 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Post GFC (Global Financial Crisis): Midas Vs “Green Line” Normal Singaporeans Who Take the MRT Ride Will See It Every Day (Revealed During Workshop)! The “Poor” Can Beat the “Rich”? Post-GFC is a good time for value investors to identify and invest in the resilient compounders, whether in Singapore, in Asia or around the world. Finally!! No more destructive “get- rich-quick” mindset. Develop independent critical thinking to be insatiably curious about the things around us. Otherwise, we will forever be at the mercy of smart wealthy predators and “Zhuang Jia” who prey on our weaknesses.
  • 10. 10 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation “People are constantly asking me what to invest in, and I always answer the same way. I say: Do not listen to me – do not listen to anybody. The way you become a successful investor is by investing only in what you yourself have a wealth of knowledge about. Everybody knows a lot about something. Cars, fashion, whatever it is – you know a lot about something. If you do not know what it is you know a lot about, just step back and take a look at your daily life. When you walk into a doctor’s waiting room, what magazines do you pick up? If you turn on a TV, what kind of programs do you watch? Soon you will probably figure out what your real interests are, what you are really knowledgeable about.” - Jim Rogers in “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets” Jim Rogers’ Advice: Do Not Listen To Anybody! Invest Only In What You Yourself Are Knowledgeable About.
  • 11. 11 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation “If you are keen on cars, read everything you can about the automobile industry. You will know when something is about to happen that constitutes a major, positive change. Then start following up. Read more about whatever you find. Maybe a new fuel-injection system is being developed, one that is superior to and cheaper than that which is currently in use, and you know that when it goes into production, it will take up a large share of the market. Or it could be something like a new highway. Maybe people can drive someplace where they could never drive before. Maybe new hotels or shopping centers are certain to open up there. The fundamental strategy is this: stay with what you know and expand on it. If somebody calls you up and says, oh, my gosh, there is this great new computer process … ignore it. You do not know anything about computers. Cars are what you know. Concentrate on what you know and any changes you see – you will see a major change coming long before I ever will, long before anybody on Wall Street will, because cars are you passion; they are what you are sitting around reading about all the time. Learn to think in the appropriate terms: this is something new; this is something different; this is a shift in direction. Anything new or different leads to consequences down the road. You have to learn to think around corners. You will know before anybody on Wall Street when something good is happening. You will know it is time to buy. You will also know when to sell, because you will see before anybody else that the great change you noticed a few years ago is starting to reverse itself – someone is building a cheaper product, the Chinese are building a better product. The competition has intensified. You will know it is time to sell long before the people on Wall Street.” - Jim Rogers in “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets” Jim Rogers: If your interest and passion is on cars…
  • 14. 14 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationYutong Bus: Long-Term Performance Since Listing Vs Index
  • 17. 17 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Sounds like a lot of knowledge is needed? If we just like to eat Calbee potato chips? Yen 10,000 (Present) Emerging Value Summit Presentation on April 11, 2013
  • 18. 18 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation “In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable ‘moats’.” - Warren Buffett With unresolved crises on the horizon, investors are often immobilized in making investment decision. “Wait for the clouds to clear” is the mantra. Value investing appears to provide a way out to see opportunities in cloudy weather by using the “cheap” price signal to identify “out-of-favor” neglected stocks and invest in them for “reversion back to mean”. Hence, pick stocks with “cheap” valuations based on conventional metrics and ratios – how much lower can they go anyway? – and they will bounce back up to their historical average levels. Or simply wait for a market dip, or a crash, before declaring some magical list of top ten stock tips to invest in. This is NOT value investing. When Li Ning, the “Nike of China”, announced that its founder is going into industrial park and property development in September 2010, the stock has been a darling, having a competitive “moat” with brand recognition and it has recovered strongly since its bottom in March 2009 by climbing 140% to HK$24 per share. Oh, it is already expected that the market will react negatively to the property news, now it is down 20% to HK$19, value stock, be contrarian, BUY! Down another 20% to HK$15, getting cheaper and it’s out-of-favor, it will bounce back up, BUY! And the value investor catches the falling knife until below HK$5 now; while Nike hits an all-time high. How do value investors distinguish whether “cheap” stocks are value traps or opportunity? Without an understanding of the underlying business model dynamics and analyzing the durability of the economic moat, an investment decision based on price and macro signals and historical valuation metrics can be misleading and costly. Without an understanding of business model, one would also have sold Wal-mart after it was listed in 1972 as the stock crashed over 60% in the next three years. Wal-mart went on to compound 1,200-fold since 1972 to over US$250 billion in market cap – a $100,000 investment in Wal-Mart becomes a $120 million treasure trove. So why is Wal-mart able to bounce back to scale new heights but the same cannot be said for the “Nike of China”? Can resilient business models – Bamboo Innovators - outperform even in stormy periods? When Shanghai Composite Index crashed 70% from its peak of 6,000 in October 2007 to below 2,000 at the bottom in March 2009, Yunnan Baiyao was UP around 8%. As the index bounce to 2,200, still down 60% from its peak, Baiyao is up over 220% during the same period. Increasingly, such resilient business models are outperforming in Asia and globally; while the “cheap” stocks get cheaper and they become the fertile ground for “insiders” (庄家) who manipulate prices and volumes and inject “action” via exciting corporate news announcement of “sexy” projects or M&As, luring investors in and then offloading to them in a pump-and-dump cycle. Sophisticated value investors can overcome poor and uncertain macro conditions by investing in resilient compounders because they have their own internal rhythm to create value, like the bamboo, which bend, not break even in the wildest of storm that would have snapped the once-mighty oak tree. Workshop 1 of 4: In Search of Compounding Stocks in Uncertain Times
  • 19. 19 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Program Outline and Key Learning Points: LEARN the R.E.S.-ilience factors in the business model and economic moat analysis of how Bamboo Innovators create extraordinary value, particularly the “E” factor which stands for “emptiness” in the business model. GAIN the surprising insight of sophisticated institutional investors who understand why growth in sales, profit and tangible asset may not translate to market capitalization growth and sustainable share price gains. ATTAIN the critical knowledge of 12 types of sophisticated institutional investors that climbing from $50 million to $1 billion in market cap takes an entirely different business model dynamics as compared to scaling up sustainably from $1 billion to $20 billion in market cap. RECOGNIZE the 12 types of business models and their profit patterns and acquire the ability to scan through different businesses in various industries to understand the key levers for growth ahead of the investment curve. UNDERSTAND why and how businesses hit a stall point in growth and without a transformation in business model, bigger can be riskier. Thus “Grow or Perish” become “Grow AND Perish” DISSECT a wide range of real-world cases of Asian and global Bamboo Innovators in various industries and understand the intricacies of their business models, their critical success – and failure – factors. UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, descriptive facts and “checklists” you have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment decision-making.
  • 20. 20 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Frauds. Warren Buffett commented in the recent Berkshire Hathaway AGM 2013 that when he’s reading through financial statements, he’d find companies he was virtually certain are frauds. In response to a shareholder’s question on what did he find that made him so certain, both Buffett and Munger replied that “there isn’t a 40-point checklist” and that value investors need to understand the interaction between the underlying business model dynamics and the people running the enterprise when examining the numbers. In Asia, with outbreaks of accounting frauds and corporate governance lapse erupting on a systematic basis at the firm level, how does a value investor go about generating sustainable outsized returns? To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, to murder (to engage in earnings management) is easy, but to dispose the murdered body (to expropriate or tunnel out the cash and assets out of the company) is harder as it is detectable by the serious institutional investor with his or her keen observation of the various information signals and clues. It would be premature to speak of “fundamental” analysis using possibly rigged accounting numbers due to propping and tunneling to fashion elaborate but “garbage-in-garbage-out” quant valuation models. Even “technical” analysis can be misleading given prices and volumes are often manipulated by the “insiders” (庄家) who establish the stock inventory (老鼠仓), luring investors in and then offloading in a pump-and-dump cycle. Such exploits by insiders is made easy as most stocks in Asia are still relatively small-cap and illiquid, given that the median market cap of the listed universe of 23,000 stocks in Asia is around $80 million and over 80% are under a billion dollar in market cap. Thus, the use of “fundamental” or “technical” analysis, or its combination – without a Mungerian I-O accounting framework using the Bamboo Innovator way – can lead to a false sense of confidence that clever insiders exploit at your expense. Workshop 2 of 4: Detecting Frauds Ahead of the Curve
  • 21. 21 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Program Outline and Key Learning Points: UNDERSTAND the importance of the Mungerian I-O (Incentive-Opportunity) accounting framework to adapt value investing principles in Asia. LEARN the three accounting steps that “set-up” companies commonly use to expropriate assets and the ORECTA and other information signals that sophisticated institutional investors use in their cutting-edge empirical research tool-bag. DEVELOP the ability to scan through thick annual reports and financial statements for the Seven Accounting Sins. DEMYSTIFY the various techniques in “earnings management”, “revenue recognition management”, “real activity management” and “income smoothing” and differentiate between opportunistic bookkeeping mischief and discretionary signaling of private information of leading indicators of firm performance by management to investors. ATTAIN the application tools used by sophisticated institutional investors in the accounting of words, that is, textual analysis of disclosures which are an important source of information with value relevance about the firm. DISSECT actual cases of capex-related fraud in prominent Asian listed companies that are invested by reputable fund management institutions who are also caught flat-footed when things unravel. RE-EXAMINE accounting fundamentals that universities impart without the relevant context of value investing, including the use and abuse of the accruals anomaly (AA) in investing strategies adopted by sophisticated institutional investors in various forms. UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, “descriptive” facts and “checklists” you have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment decision-making.
  • 22. 22 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Workshop 3 of 4: Tipping Point Analysis in Value Investing Waiting is the main drawback in value investing. Investors often lose patience with their stocks when they don’t perform in the short-term to produce a feel-good comfort that we are right in our stock calls. That’s why fund managers under pressure to deliver short-term results always ask, “Any upcoming catalysts?” This cannot be more misleading when there is an insufficient understanding in the scalability and resilience of the underlying business model. When iPod was introduced on November 10, 2001, Apple’s share price was US$9.40 per share and had jumped to US$12 by year end. Those who had loaded up on the “iPod effect” or “new product” catalyst suffered for the next year- and-a-half as the shares plunged to US$6.70 in April 2003. Disappointed, momentum traders cloaked under the label of fund managers sell the stock. Then a “tipping point” moment happened in April 2003 to bring about the extraordinary 60-fold returns in the next decade to US$428 per share, or US$400 billion in market cap. What was this “tipping point” event? One such “tipping point” event is the launch of the iTunes Store on April 28, 2003. Serious institutional investors spend most of their time not in looking at stock price screens or gaining “insider” knowledge of “catalysts” to generate alpha or excess returns, but in analyzing the interaction of business model dynamics with “tipping point” events so that they literally hear and see the “clicking” sound when they occur to produce a resilient compounder. It is our task to have a systematic framework to understand and identify “tipping point” events when they occur to stay ahead of the momentum traders and colluding insiders (庄家) on the investing curve.
  • 23. 23 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Program Outline and Key Learning Points: UNDERSTAND the stock market reactions to a wide-range of “catalysts”: “Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD)”, “Capital management programs” (e.g. dividends, capital reduction, share buybacks, bonus issue, rights, splits, share/debt placement) and “Financial structure changes”, “Analyst coverage and recommendations”, and many more. GAIN the surprising insight to why certain positive catalyst signals can be misleading noise, for instance, insider purchase can be negative. And also why overreaction to certain negative catalyst signals can be an opportunity. DEVELOP the ability to distinguish between “catalysts” with unsustainable short-term effects and “tipping point” with long-term value relevance. LEARN where M&A pays and where it strays and the pitfalls. DISSECT a wide range of real-world cases of Asian and global Bamboo Innovators in various industries and understand the tipping point in their business models. UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, descriptive facts and “checklists” you have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment decision-making.
  • 24. 24 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Workshop 4 of 4: Bet on the Jockey (Management) or the Horse (Business Model)? “Good jockeys will do well on good horses, but not on broken-down nags. When a management team with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” - Warren Buffett “I would rather not be able to read words than not be able to read people.” - Zeng Guofan, Qing dynasty statesman, in “Icy Discernment” (冰鉴), a book on reading people and ranked alongside Chinese classics “Three Kingdoms” and “Sun-Tzu: Art of War” “Privileged” information pays? Fund managers working with sell-side analysts and bankers are deemed to have an unfair competitive edge because of their selective access to management who may convey “private” information either about the business or about themselves through their non-verbal communication cues. So then, what are the tools and techniques using public information that serious institutional investors employ to assess management quality and governance, as well as to distinguish whether founder-led companies and family businesses can still scale greater heights or that their past-success halo status had worn out and starts to impede the growth of the firm? Does management quality (jockey) really matter so much, as even Warren Buffett believe a good jockey cannot race well on a broken-down horse (business model)? In Asia, “management quality” boils down to “founder quality”. “One-man show” is common where the entrepreneurial founders (“jockey”) are crucial in driving the success during the formative stage of the company’s growth story, particularly during the past decade when companies emerge from the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis. Investors become enamored by many such darling stocks whose market cap climbed 10 to 20 times from under $50 million to the half-billion to billion-dollar market cap. A rising tide lifts all boats and jockey-led companies have risen higher. The 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has been a game-changer. Serious institutional value investors understand that it takes an entirely business model dynamics to scale up from billion dollar to $10 to $20 billion market cap. This is an important reason why former market darlings in Singapore, including Midas, Raffles Education, Ezra, Swiber, and so on, have generated dizzying stock returns only pre-GFC but are hovering around or below $1 billion for a protracted period post-GFC. Yet, there are successful founder-led Asian companies which continued to break new grounds, such as TSMC, whose market cap of $100 billion stood in sharp contrast to Singapore’s loss-making, debt-laden Chartered Semicon which was sold for $1.8 billion, even though both companies are started at around the same time in 1987. Same industry, same business, but the jockey at TSMC makes a difference in winning the race. So how can value investors spot not only the thousand-mile horse (千里马) and resilient business model but also the worthy outstanding rider who can bring the best out of the horse to generate compounding returns? An important emerging trend in Asia is the “change of guard” in founder-led businesses, with the second generation scions, assisted by professional managers, stepping up to scale their family businesses through an emphasis of innovation and governance to compete regionally and globally. So what are the family business and governance dynamics that value investors need to watch out for as Asian family-controlled companies run by aging patriarchs and matriarchs undergo this “change of guard” transition in the next decade which could override the supposed well-known advantages of the family model? Also, can family members hate each other and still build a world-class company? How can value investors employ the ancient Chinese wisdom displayed by the astute Qing dynasty statesman Zeng Guofan (曾国藩) to identify great managers?
  • 25. 25 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Outline and Key Benefits: •LEARN the application tools and techniques used by sophisticated institutional investors in the accounting of words, that is, textual analysis of disclosures which are an important source of information with value relevance about the firm. •UNDERSTAND the framework to sense and detect the quality of management and corporate governance, how leaders are better (or worse) under pressure and bring out the best (or worse) in themselves and others during difficult times. •DEVELOP the insight using the Bamboo Innovator framework of how “Sheath” leadership encourage and protect the emergence of innovative ideas and how they cultivate “Rootedness” in the corporate culture to be trusting and ready to risk in new innovations. •ATTAIN the knowledge of what to look out for when investing in family-controlled businesses to assess the opportunities and pitfalls. •ADAPT the ancient Chinese wisdom of “Icy Discernment” by people-reader Zeng Guofan to view management quality afresh. •UNIFY at the end of the day all the previously disparate loose-hanging concepts, descriptive facts and “checklists” you have learnt from various sources into the practical Bamboo Innovator mental model when it comes to real investment decision-making. Workshop 4 of 4: Bet on the Jockey (Management) or the Horse (Business Model)?
  • 26. 26 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Published Articles & Research (2013): • Snapped By Regulatory Storms? Braving Through Berkshire’s Former Iron Mountain to Asia, July 31, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • From Buffett’s Scott Fetzer to Asia, Are Oddballs Odious or Opportunities? July 24, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Are Boring Businesses Resilient or Risky? Pitfalls and Opportunities in Europe and Asia, July 17, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Supply- and Demand-side Moat Economics in Europe and Asia, July 10, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • “Must-Have” vs “Nice-To-Have”: Exploiting the Sector-Company Gap in Asia, July 3, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Institutional Imperative and Differentiating Between the Tech Innovators, the Imitators and the Swarming Incompetents in Asia, June 27, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • BNSF + JB Hunt = Buffett + Munger = Lollapalooza! How About Asia? June 19, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Why Berkshire Hathaway’s McLane Has a Moat, and Are There Similar Companies In Asia? June 12, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Investing in Korea: Staying Rational Despite Samsung’s Halo Effect, June 5, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Education 2.0 In Indonesia: Inspiring Bamboo Innovators, May 11, 2013 (Jakarta Post) • Any Benjamin Franklins in Asia? May 9, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Berkshire Hathaway 2013: Takeaways and Impressions from the Annual Meeting, May 7, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Pilgrimage to Omaha + Entrepreneurship, Asian-style! May 1, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Who’s the Buffett CEO in Asia? Part 1 on China’s Great Wall Motor, April 23, 2016 (BeyondProxy) • Who’s the Buffett CEO in Asia? Part 2 on Australia’s ARB Corporation, April 26, 2013 (Beyond Proxy) • Kewpie: Japan’s Heinz and R.E.S.-ilient Bamboo Innovator, April 20, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Value Investors in Asia: Making Sense of the Micro Vs. Macro Dilemma, April 16, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • “Be like the bamboo, not the oak tree”, TODAY, 8 April 2013 • “Creating ‘bamboo innovators’ in S’pore”, Straits Times, 1 April 2013 • Detecting Fraud by Scrutinizing the “How” Rather than the “What” of Management Disclosures, March 22, 2013 (BeyondProxy) Featured (2013): • Mental Models: Bamboo Innovator, April 4, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • The Bamboo Innovator Approach to Investing in Asia, April 4, 2013 (YouTube uploaded by BeyondProxy.com) • Six Common Accounting Pitfalls at Asian Companies, March 20, 2013 (BeyondProxy) • Insights into Accounting Pitfalls at Asian Companies, March 21, 2013 (Greatinvestors.TV and Frequency.com) • Beware of “Other Receivables” Accounting at Asian Companies, March 26, 2013 (Greatinvestors.TV) Internationally Featured Value Investor: TEDxWallStreet, BeyondProxy, GreatInvestors.TV
  • 27. 27 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Some Testimonial From Public Workshop “I enjoyed today's course. Thanks in particular for having extensively prepared the notes with examples and for sharing with us your anecdotes on various CEOs and top executives in Singapore. I found such opinions useful since many of us do not have access to a company's management outside of a shareholders' meeting so it is difficult to get a better sense of the management's true character. I also found your 3-point Bamboo Innovators Search Methodology a useful litmus test in filtering companies for further value analysis. Thanks again for the course and I hope to see you in a future course soon.” Charles Guo “It has been mind-blowing learning from you. The amount of knowledge you shared is so intensive that I went home and slept till the next day. The case studies you shared were great.” Johnny Lee “You have gave a great lecture yesterday, it was certainly worth spending an entire Saturday for the course. The things that you have taught is truly unique and thought- provoking just like your articles on BeyondProxy. The Bamboo Innovator framework has allowed me to use a more holistic approach towards investing.” Yeo Shan Rui
  • 28. 28 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation “It has been an interesting and encouraging program. The program has encouraged me to continue to pursue what I want to do for the company.” Jismyl Teo Chor Khin, CEO of DMX Technologies Limited “The content and substance of the Program is original, useful and important. This program challenged me intellectually and helped me to think critically and learn more effectively. Overall, I find the Program beneficial to me and my company (rated 5 out of 5).” Sherlie Young, Senior Manager (Group Finance) of Gallant Ventures Limited “The program gives a new and refreshing perspective of how companies can be successful and it is backed by a lot of research with a practical, real-world approach.” “The Program Director is approachable, authentic and helpful when sharing his insights. Overall, I would highly recommend this Program to my colleagues and peers (rated 5 out of 5).” Danny Tan, Manager (Group Finance) of Gallant Ventures Limited “It is an eye opener for me. With this seminar, I can learn about how companies scale up successfully.” Ratnawati, Corporate Accounts Manager of Gallant Ventures Limited “I have increased my knowledge as a result of taking this Program.” “Overall, I find the Program beneficial to me and my company and I would highly recommend this Program to my colleagues and peers (rated 5 out of 5).” Sun Yi, Managing Director of Sunnic Pte Ltd Some Testimonial From Corporate Workshop
  • 29. 29 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value Creation Bamboo: The hardiest and effective natural structure to evolve in millions of years of restless experiment in cellular life on earth Even through the strongest hurricanes, the bamboo will bend but never break; when covered with snow, it will patiently wait for it to melt down, and then rise up. And in the end, the bamboo stands tall, green and beautiful. For the Chinese, the bamboo represents the value of “uprightness”. Bamboo is an ancient resident of earth, here before people by some 100 to 200 million years. Its “root-like” rhizome and “hollow” culm is perhaps the hardiest and effective natural structure to evolve in millions of years of restless experiment in cellular life on earth, and the most efficient laboratory that has yet appeared for braiding sunlight, water, and soil into forms which have for centuries proved immensely useful for human needs. The bamboo culm combines a certain gentle capacity to yield with a strength that rivals steel. 52,000 pounds per square inch were required to break a good bamboo. Walnut required 22,000 pounds per square inch, while the steel commonly used for reinforcing concrete required about 60,000 pounds. Bamboos bend, not break, and remain evergreen even with the onslaught of the atomic bomb. The world’s first atomic bomb over the city of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, has destroyed streets and houses, charred trees and grasses to bits. Yet, one living thing stood out. In the very epicenter, a thicket of bamboo stood through the blast, suffering only one side to be scorched. The sight was an immeasurable encouragement to the war- shattered citizens. A portion of the bamboo plant is now housed in the Memorial Museum for Peace.
  • 30. 30 《竹经:经商经世离不得立根创新》 nnovatorBamboo R.E.S.-ilience in Value CreationContact KB Kee “Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand and I’ll move the world,” says Archimedes. The long lever we choose to innovate in the world is hopefully the Bamboo; the place where we stand is Emptiness - when we empty our heart of prejudices, pride and fear, we become open to the possibilities to innovate – and Emptiness is rooted in Kindness and Trust. Bamboo Innovator Institute is set up to establish the thought leadership of resilient value creators around the world. Koon Boon has been rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets. He was a fund manager and head of research/analyst at a Singapore-based investment management organization dedicated to the craft of value investing in Asia. He had been with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus flagship Asian fund. He was previously the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. He received his Masters in Finance (magna cum laude) and double degree in Accountancy and Business Management (both summa cum laude) from the Singapore Management University (SMU). He had taught accounting at his alma mater in SMU and lectures at SIM University for working professionals. He had published cutting-edge empirical research in the Special Issue of Istanbul Stock Exchange 25th Year Anniversary of the Boğaziçi Journal, Review of Social and Economic Studies, as well as wrote articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media. He had also presented in top banking and finance conferences in Sydney, Cape Town, HK, Beijing and in the recent Emerging Value Summit 2013. He is also an internationally-featured value investor in TEDxWallStreet, Greatinvestors.TV and BeyondProxy.com. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy, macroeconomic and industry trends in Singapore, HK and China. www.twitter.com/bambooinnovator bambooinnovator@gmail.com www.bambooinnovator.com