تحليل للموازنه العامه المصريه

1. (Analysisof theEgyptianNationalBudget2019/2020)
Karim Diaa Eldin

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Key Points :
- FY18, real gross domestic
product (GDP) grew by 5.3
percent, compared to an average
of 4.3 percent in the three years
before.
- Inflation rate : 2017 33% 2019
12.7%
- fiscal deficit narrowed by three
percentage points to 9.7 percent
of GDP in FY18
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Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
332.698 332.928 235.369 250.895
0% 0.1% -29% 7%
GDP ( Billion$)
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Fiscal Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
1.4 1.55 1.5 1.15
International Fund ( IBRD/IDA) Billion $

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Source of Finance
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Source of Finance
Some important distinctions are as follows:
 Direct taxes are those paid by households and companies to the
government or other public agencies. This includes income tax, payroll
tax (including mandatory social health insurance contributions) and
corporate or profit tax.
 Indirect taxes are paid to the government or other public agency via a
third party (retailer or supplier). The tax is based on what a household or
company spends and includes value-added tax, sales tax, excise tax on
alcohol and tobacco and import duties.
 Non-tax revenues are from state-owned companies, including natural
resource revenues such as oil and gas.
 Financing from external (foreign) sources is considered ‘public’ when the
funds flow through recipient governments.
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Source of FinanceNational Budget
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2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020
Total Revenue 491.5 659.2 821.1 968.6 1,134.40
Growth Rate 6% 34% 25% 18% 17%
TAX 352.3 462 629.3 755 856.6
Growth Rate 15% 31% 36% 20% 13%
Non-Tax revenue 139.2 197.2 191.8 213.6 277.8
Total Expenses 817.8 1,031.90 1,244.40 1,403.40 1,574.60
12% 26% 21% 13% 12%
Financial Assets 13.1 6.8 9.3 3.8 5.1
Total deficit -339.4 -372.7 -432.6 -438.6 -445.30
Total Deficit :
GDP 12.50% 10.90% 9.70% 8.40% 7.20%

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Nation Financing Strategy
 Egypt recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 9.50 percent of the
country's Gross Domestic Product in 2018. Government Budget in Egypt
averaged -9.76 percent of GDP from 2002 until 2018, reaching an all time
high of -6.80 percent of GDP in 2008 and a record low of -13.30 percent
of GDP in 2013
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Estimated financing needs
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What we need to achieve in our 2019/2020 National Budget
What is different in this National Budget comparing to all previous budgets:
1- It is focus more in Education and Health.
2- Focus on the productive economy to increase the growth rate and create new job
opportunities specially in Manufacturing and Exporting sectors.
3- Continue the TAX system and maximize the return on the state assets.
4- Increase the wages and the Annuities.
5- Reduce the National debt to 89% from the GNP.
6- Improve the pricing strategy
 The Vision :
“Achieve human development requirements while continuing to structural institutional “
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Financial Requirements
2018/2019 2019/2020
TotalDeficit 439,206 445,140
Paymentsoflocalloans 179,187 324,415
PaymentsofForeignLoans 32,301 51,151
TotalFinancialNeeds 650,694 820,706
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Source of Fund 11
• International
Private
• Domestic
Private
• International
Public
• Domestic
Public
- TAX
- Non-Tax
Revenue
AIDs
- Foreign Direct
Investment
- Financial Market
- Large Corporate
- SME

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Source of Fund 12
Source of Fund 2018/2019 2019/2020
Extral Fund
Loans form International Institution 0 0
Interantional Monetary Fund ( IMF) 72,000 22,750
International Bonds 72,000 72,800
Loan form Germany 4,500 0
Loan from France 1,050 0
149,550 95,550
Internal Fund
Tresury Bills 350,801 435,093
Govrnmnet Bond 150,343 290,062
501,144 725,155
650,694 820,705

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Banks and Financial Institutions
 The commercial banks should change its lending policy
to encourage the youth to start their own business by
decreasing the lending rate
 Improve the bankrupt law.
 Banks should invest in all kind of sectors in order to
minimize the gap between what the country need and
the source of the finance.
 Cooperate Social Responsibility.
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Banks & Financial Institutes :
 The lending rate for the start-ups related to the technology should be the lowest
comparing to any other lending in order to improve this industry.
 Also the interest rate should be low for all start-ups related to manufacturing.
 Commercial and trading start-ups should borrow at high rate in order to lower the import
and increase the local manufacturing which will lead to the export.
 Decrease the interest rate in deposits is something mandatory in order to push the society
for direct invest in the local market
 Stock market should be more transparent and have a strong appearance in the market
 Activate the stock market for the small and medium enterprises in order to encourage the
youth to invest in low price stocks (penny stocks)
 Banks should invest in the all kind of sectors such as the medical sector and Education.
Corporates:
 Egypt is having big national and international companies in many fields and this number
has been increased in the last few years and specially the international firms has inject new
investment for many reasons such as the political stability, the economic stability and
because the clear development in the infrastructure.
 This corporate is having a huge social responsibility and it has to be address to the right
path in order to get the most of its benefits.
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