4. What to know about license?
Licensing Period : 15 years
Terms of Payment: Paid within 90 days after formal announcement
Payment to NBTC
Period Amount
1 8,040 m (50% of starting price) +
bank guarantee
2 4,020 m (25%)
3 4,020 m (25%)
4 Leftover
5. Timeline
Dec 18, 2015
• 900MHz Auction
• JAS mobile & TRUE
won
March 21, 2016
• Deadline
• JAS fail to pay in
time
May 27, 2016
• New Auction
Forecast
• AWN win auction
JAS & TRUE won 900MHz
auction
- JAS Lot1 BHT 75,654 m
- TRUE Lot2 BHT 76,298 m
- Winners required to …
- Pay their 1st payment
- Bank Guarantee
Participants
- AIS & TRUE
AWN win new 900MHz
auction
- Lot1 min@75,654 m฿
JAS fail to pay
- BBL unapproved
loan
- Synergy dealing not
in time
- BHT 644m collateral
confiscated
JAS unqualified
+
Changes in regulation
(runner-up can win the
bid if winner cannot
pay)
6. Possible Winner
AWN ( AIS) win an auction
High auction price affect negative sentiment on ADVANC/ INTUCH
Unprofitable investment? (NPV-)
Decreasing of dividends, income, and target price BUT enhance competitiveness
Increasing of Debt/ EBITDA to 2x
TRUE win auction (rarely)
Calling for more public/ private placement ~60,000m ฿
DTAC won’t participate auction (win in both situation)
Currently 50 MHz spectrum in hand
Risk of lacking of channel after Sep’ 2019 ( 850, 1800 MHz expired)
Might bid in 850 MHz after expiry
7. Results of Auction
Positive benefits to ICT sector, as JAS drop license
TRUE, AIS, and DTAC (ARPU not lower by dumping of JAS)
High competition in long term
High Advertising costs
Stealing market share (number of subscribers)
Market Shares
AIS remains the number 1
Launch 4G at the beginning of year + maintain 2G-900 MHz customers (in case win auction)
Follow by DTAC and TRUE
