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AP US Government & Politics Chapter 7
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Magleby chapter7 ppt
- 2. 7 Public Opinion, Ideology, Participation, and Voting
- 3. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7Learning Objectives Identify the forces that create and shape individuals’ political attitudes7.1 Describe the key dimensions of public opinion, how public opinion is measured, and the relationship between public opinion and public policy 7.2
- 4. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7Learning Objectives Compare and contrast political ideologies and evaluate the critiques of each ideology 7.3 Identify forms of political participation, and assess the effect on voter turnout of demographic, legal, and electioneering factors 7.4
- 5. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 2.2 7Learning Objectives Analyze why people vote the way they do in elections7.5
- 6. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Forming Political Opinions andValues Political Socialization – the process by which develop their political values, attitudes and beliefs Stability and Change Awareness and Interest 7.1
- 7. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Political Socialization Family is the #1 influence on political partisanship Schools Pledge of Allegiance introduces respect for country Peers and social media Mass media Selective exposure – intentional avoidance of anything that contradicts a voter’s political beliefs Other influences Religious, ethnic, racial backgrounds Not all conform to stereotypes 7.1
- 8. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Facebook 7.1
- 9. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Stability and Change Core values remain stable over time – (opinions on issues such as abortion or the death penalty) Extraordinary events such as war can be catalysts for change Deliberation (a sober and considerate interchange of ideas, differences and opinions) promotes social capital 7.1
- 10. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. FIGURE 7.1: Comparison of opinion of President George W. Bush and Barack Obama with attitude on abortion over time 7.1
- 11. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Awareness and Interest The general public has little knowledge of candidates and issues Attentive public is approximately 25% of total adult population Participants have more influence than nonparticipants 7.1
- 12. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.1 Which of the following is the most powerful agent of socialization? a. Schools b. The mass media c. Peer groups d. Family 7.1
- 13. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.1 a. Schools b. The mass media c. Peer groups d. Family 7.1 Which of the following is the most powerful agent of socialization?
- 14. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Public Opinion:Taking the Pulse of the People What Is Public Opinion? Public Opinion and Public Policy Measuring Public Opinion 7.2
- 15. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. What Is Public Opinion? Distribution of individual preferences within a specific population Proportion of people with an opinion vs. those opposing or without Most accurately measured through polling 7.2
- 16. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Measuring Public Opinion Random sampling – a small number of people can accurately represent the opinions of a larger population Margin of error – the percentage that poll results can be off Intensity - Measures how strongly an individual holds a particular opinion Latency - Political opinions that are held but not yet expressed Salience - An individual’s belief that an issue is important or relevant to him or her 7.2
- 17. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Polls 7.2
- 18. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. TABLE 7.1 The way you ask the question matters 7.2
- 19. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. TABLE 7.2: Differing opinions on gay marriage 7.3
- 20. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Public Opinion and Public Policy Polling How politicians are informed of public opinion Polls are paid by politicians, public, or the media Cyclical relationship Opinion shapes policy, which shapes opinion 7.2
- 21. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.2 Which of the following refers to the proportion of the population that holds a particular opinion? a. Salience b. Margin of error c. Latency d. Distribution 7.2
- 22. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.27.2 Which of the following refers to the proportion of the population that holds a particular opinion? a. Salience b. Margin of error c. Latency d. Distribution
- 23. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Liberalism Conservatism Socialism and Communism Libertarianism 7.3
- 24. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Liberalism Contemporary liberals Believe that government can bring about justice and equality of opportunity Criticisms of liberalism Over-reliance on government, taxes, and bureaucracy Not fiscally responsible Hurts economic growth 7.3
- 25. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Pro-abortion protest 7.3
- 26. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Conservatism – 2 types Traditional conservatives Believe in private property rights and free enterprise Pro business Want small government - Believe government should only provide national defense, law and order, encourage economic growth, and promote family values Social conservatives Focus less on economics and more on morality and lifestyle Criticisms of conservatism Urge more government when it serves their own purposes 7.3
- 27. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. No Child Left Behind 7.3 This legislation has been attacked by conservatives for its interference with local control of education. Liberals criticized the poor implementation of the act and its inadequate funding. Signed into law by President Bush, this act set standards for educational attainment based on standardized tests.
- 28. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. TABLE 7.3: Differences in political ideology 7.2 Ideology is correlated to sex, age, religion, education, and political party.
- 29. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Senator Jim DeMint 7.3 The Tea Party Movement A grassroots conservative movement that arose in 2009 after Barack Obama became president. The movement opposes big government and current levels of taxation, and also rejects political compromise.
- 30. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Senator Richard Durbin 7.3 A liberal senator from Illinois meeting with reporters to introduce a bipartisan bill on marketplace fairness
- 31. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Socialism and Communism Socialism — public ownership of the means of production Wide role for government-provided social programs Communism – state-owned property and a single political party 7.3
- 32. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Libertarianism Stress individual liberties and sharply limited government Support withdrawal from United Nations Would repeal laws that regulate personal morality - oppose restrictions on abortion Ron Paul – a Libertarian who ran for president in 1988, 2008, and 2012 7.3
- 33. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. FIGURE 7.2: Ideology over time – very stable in America, most are moderate 7.3
- 34. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.3 Which ideology is emphatically pro-business? a. Socialism b. Communism c. Liberalism d. Conservatism 7.3
- 35. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.3 7.3 Which ideology is emphatically pro-business? a. Socialism b. Communism c. Liberalism d. Conservatism
- 36. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Participation:Translating Opinions into Action Voting Turnout Who Votes? Mobilization How Serious Is Nonvoting? 7.4
- 37. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. FIGURE 7.3: Political participation and awareness in the United States 7.4
- 38. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Voting Registration Has discouraged voting due to extra step Designed to reduce voter fraud Requires proof of residency Motor Voter bill Eases registration burdens by allowing people to register to vote while renewing driver’s license Absentee and Early Voting 2008 marked a historical high for absentee voters (voting by mail) 7.4
- 39. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. TABLE 7.4: Women’s suffrage timeline 7.4
- 40. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. TABLE 7.5: Changes in voting eligibility standards since 1870 7.4 The 19th amendment gave women the right to vote. The 26th amendment lowered the voting age to 18.
- 41. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Turnout United States holds more elections than any other democracy Types of elections General – voters elect officeholders Primary - voters determine party nominees Special - fill political offices that have become vacant between general elections Turnout - the proportion of voting-age public that votes - is highest in presidential general elections; lowest in local elections 7.4
- 42. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. FIGURE 7.4: Voter turnout in presidential elections, 1789–2008 7.4 Presidential general elections have the highest voter turnout of all types of elections
- 43. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. FIGURE 7.5: Voter turnout in presidential and midterm elections, 1992–2010 7.4
- 44. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. WhoVotes? Education is the most important predictor in whether people will vote Race Ethnic background Women have voted in greater numbers than men since 1984 Due to increasing levels of education and employment 7.4
- 45. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.4 This poster urges women to vote
- 46. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Mobilization “Banking” the vote - reduces the number of people needed to mobilize on Election Day Mailings and phone calls Encourages early voting Canvassing potential voters to determine which issues matter to potential voters Undecided “swing” voters Focus of major mobilization efforts 7.4
- 47. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. How Serious Is Nonvoting? 40% of eligible citizens fail to vote Approximately 80 million people Some argue nonvoting does not change outcomes Low voter turnout may indicate approval of the status quo High voter turnout may signal desire for change 7.4
- 48. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. TABLE 7.6: Why people do not vote Registration problems are the main reason 7.4
- 49. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.4 Which of the following is likely to draw the highest turnout? a. Congressional special election b. Gubernatorial primary election c. Municipal mayoral election d. Presidential general election 7.4
- 50. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.4 7.4 Which of the following is likely to draw the highest turnout? a. Congressional special election b. Gubernatorial primary election c. Municipal mayoral election d. Presidential general election
- 51. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Voting Choices The 3 main elements of the voting choice are: Voting on the Basis of Party Identification Voting on the Basis of Candidates’ appeal Voting on the Basis of Issues The Impact of Campaigns 7.5
- 52. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Voting on the Basis of Party Party identification Voters vote most often for a person from the party they prefer Importance of independent voters Increasing numbers Have the highest number of registered voters of all the parties 3 types: Left-leaning, pure independents, right-leaning 7.5
- 53. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Voting on the Basis of Candidates Candidate appeal Background Personality Leadership ability Candidate-centered politics Minimizes partisanship Private lives and personal character “Character cops” 7.5
- 54. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Voting on the Basis of Issues Issues are less important to voters than Party ID or candidate appeal “Wedge issues” - motivate particular groups to vote Prospective voting - based on what the candidate promises to do Retrospective issue voting Rewards/punishes incumbents for performance More likely than prospective issue voting 7.5
- 55. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. The Impact of Campaigns Effective campaigns give voters reasons to vote for their candidate Importance of money Spending more money does not guarantee a win Campaigns are often negative and personal 7.5
- 56. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.5 Which of the following rewards incumbents for good performance? a. Party identification b. Wedge issues c. Prospective issue voting d. Retrospective issue voting 7.5
- 57. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 7.5 7.5 Which of the following rewards incumbents for good performance? a. Party identification b. Wedge issues c. Prospective issue voting d. Retrospective issue voting
- 58. Copyright © 2015 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. How would you describe your own political attitudes? Liberal? Conservative? Does the American political system allow for independent ideologies? How? Discussion Question 7
Editor's Notes
- Some states enacted a photo identification requirement before people could vote in 2012. One of those states was Kentucky. Here a Kentucky voter is showing a form of photo identification. This change as well as some states reducing the number of days voters could cast early ballots was challenged in the courts and in some cases overturned.
- Among our most fundamental rights is the right to vote. This chapter examines the voting public and their motivations. We also explore public opinion, how it is measured, and what factors affect the formation of opinions. We begin by looking at how we get our political opinions and values.
- Our political beliefs, values, ideology, and partisanship are founded by political socialization—the way we come to see society and learn to interact with other individuals and groups. Core values on such things as liberty or freedom tend to remain more stable, while opinions about events are more likely to change with time.
- Influenced by families and schools, our political attitudes develop in childhood and become reshaped as we mature. The most powerful socializing agent is the family, which shapes our opinions about society in general. In school, children in the United States adopt common values, such as nationalism, that provide continuity with the past and that validate the U.S. political system. Political attitudes also tend to be formed through participation in peer groups which are especially important through adolescence. By influencing how we think and exposing the values and behavior of others, the mass media also serve as agents of political socialization. Media influence is greater on attitudes about issues and individual politicians than on underlying values. Religious, ethnic, and racial backgrounds can also further shape our opinions. However, not all opinions conform to views of religious or ethnic groups. Fore example, not all Catholics are Democrats. Activity: Discuss the role of schools as agents of political socialization. Discuss the Pledge of Allegiance as a socializing agent for young children. Ask them if schools teach particular political viewpoints. Do schools teach students to favor either the liberal or conservative viewpoint? If so, how and why?
- Facebook groups like Students for a Free Tibet allow peers to share their political interests and rally friends to their cause, all without leaving their dorm rooms.
- While opinions on issues such as political performance can change substantially, core values, such as views on abortion and the death penalty, tend to remain stable over time. Not surprisingly, stability of opinion is more common in those who have remained in the same place, occupation, and income group throughout their lives. Extraordinary events, such as war, are catalysts that change attitudes and opinions. Deliberation, a sober and considerate interchange of ideas, differences, and opinions, is thought to foster social capital, and strengthen community and relationships in ways that don’t happen when citizens only vote.
- Why is attitude on abortion so consistent in comparison to the fluctuation in opinions of Presidents Bush and Obama over time?
- In general, public awareness of elected officials, policy issues, and the stances of officials on those issues is relatively poor. Approximately only 25 percent of the public, called “the attentive public,” are interested in politics most of the time. About one-third of American adults have indicated that they are interested in politics “only now and then” or “hardly at all.” Opinion leaders and those who are informed about public affairs will have much greater influence than less-active citizens.
- Think of what we’ve discussed, as well as your experiences, as you answer this question.
- Partisan politics begins at an early age in the home. Voters are more likely to identify with the politics of their parents in high school and beyond.
- Public opinion concerns all governments in all nations. Opinions, manifested as demonstrations, the use of social media, and, especially, voting in free elections, can be freely expressed by citizens in a constitutional democracy. Democracy and public opinion are inseparable.
- Public opinion is measured by surveys. Scientists use this definition: Public opinion is the distribution of individual preference for a given issue or candidate within a specific population as measured by public opinion surveys. Distribution means the proportion of the population that holds a particular opinion, compared to people who have opposing opinions or no opinion at all. Public opinion is most accurately calculated through systematic measurement in polls or surveys.
- In a poll, the larger population can be represented by using random sampling, in which everyone in the group has an equal chance of being selected. A margin of error is used to qualify the results; results can be off by a few plus or minus points. The art of asking questions is also important to scientific polling. The type of questions asked, the way they are worded, and the order in which they are asked can influence answers. The degree to which people feel strongly about their opinions is referred to as “intensity,” and it is frequently measured by scale. Opinions are described as “latent” when they are known to be held, but remain unexpressed. Issues that people believe are personally important or relevant to them are “salient.” Activity: Ask your students to think about how they would gather a representative sample of your college or university. What groups would have to be represented, and in what proportions? Be sure to ask them to explain their position based on their knowledge of surveying techniques developed from this chapter.
- In addition to polls conducted by Gallup, Pew, and other such organizations, newspapers and TV networks conduct polls on election preferences and numerous other subjects.
- The way you ask a polling question can make a lot of difference in the way people answer it. In 2012, President Barack Obama stated that he believed same-sex couples should be allowed to marry. Following the controversial statement, several sources collected information on public opinion of gay marriage and President Obama’s statement. However, different sources asked slightly different questions, which led to different interpretations of public opinion of gay marriage. Consider the following questions about gay marriage, each of which was asked between March and May, 2012. Read each question and consider how you would have responded if asked by an interviewer.
- Why do you suppose more women than men support gay marriage? What might help explain the lack of support for gay marriage among African Americans, another disadvantaged groups?
- Politicians are informed about public opinion on policy issues through polling, either commissioned by themselves, the public or the media. Historically, the relationship has been cyclical: public opinion has shaped policy and, in turn, policies have shaped opinion. Elected officials and candidates typically focus on issues of greater importance, using polling information to resonate with the public.
- We defined this term at the beginning of this section. Let’s test your recall of the correct answer now.
- Public opinion polls taken within a specific population discover how individuals within that population feel about issues. Distribution of individuals who hold an opinion are compared to those who do not.
- A pattern of ideas or beliefs about political values and the role of government is referred to as political ideology. The two major schools of political ideology in American politics are liberalism and conservatism; others include socialism and communism. While people consistently classify themselves as liberal or conservative and are willing to report the strength of their views, there is also a large group who remain moderate or apathetic.
- Liberalism refers to a belief that government can bring about justice and equality of opportunity. Most liberals hold that some government intervention in the economy is necessary to remedy the shortcomings of capitalism. They advocate equal access to health care, housing, and education and are more inclined to favor greater environmental protection, affirmative action programs, protections for workers’ health, tax rates that rise with a person’s income, union rights, and individual choice in such matters as same-sex marriage and abortion. Critics argue that liberals rely too much on government, higher taxes, and bureaucracy to solve the nation’s problems. Other criticisms state that the welfare state liberals wish for will ultimately destroy initiative and economic growth that might lead to economic opportunity.
- Liberals favor abortion. These protesters are participating in a rally on the anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision in Topeka.
- The chief aspects of conservatism are the belief in private property rights and free enterprise. By keeping government small, especially the national government, conservatives wish to enhance individual liberty. Conservatives are emphatically pro-business and believe that the sole functions of government should be to protect the nation, preserve law and order, encourage economic growth, and promote family values. Social conservatives focus less on economics and more on morality and lifestyle, favoring the repeal of judicial rulings and laws that permit abortion, same-sex marriage, and affirmative action programs. A defining characteristic of social conservatism is a strong desire to impose social controls. Critics point out that conservatives urge more government when it serves their own purposes and have fewer objections to big government when individuals have a choice in determining how government will affect them. Conservatives’ faith in the market economy, hostility to regulation, and a belief in competition lead them to ally with businessmen and corporations.
- One of President Bush’s priorities was the “No Child Left Behind” legislation. He is seen here signing the law early in his presidency, in2001. Motivated by a desire to improve educational performance, the law sets standards for educational attainment based on standardized tests. The law has drawn criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. Conservatives attack the act for its interference with local control of education, and liberals criticize the implementation of the act and its inadequate funding.
- This table displays how ideology is correlated to sex, race, age, religion, education, and political party. In which factors do you see the strongest and weakest correlations, and how might you account for that?
- Senator Jim DeMint was both a fiscal and social conservative. He is closely identified with the Tea Party movement and founder of the Senate Conservative Fund, a PAC that supports conservative Republican U.S. Senate candidates. In 2012, he also started a Super PAC.
- Senator Richard Durbin is a liberal senator from Illinois. In this photo, he is meeting with reporters to introduce a bipartisan bill on marketplace fairness.
- Socialism is an economic and governmental system based on some public ownership of means of production and a wide role for government in providing social programs. Most western European countries and Canada have various forms of socialized medical systems while keeping other economic sectors private. American socialists, including one United States senator, Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, favor a greatly expanded role for the government, but argue that such a system is compatible with democracy. Under communism, the state owns property in common for all the people, and a single political party that represents the working classes controls the government.
- Libertarianism is a political ideology that cherishes individual liberty and insists on very limited government. Libertarians oppose nearly all government programs and regulation. Libertarians would repeal laws that regulate personal morality. They also oppose American participation in the United Nations. Ron Paul ran as a Libertarian for president in 1988, and continued to espouse many of the positions identified with Libertarians in his 2008 and 2012 bids to become the Republican nominee for president.
- What factors might account for the stability in Americans’ ideology over time? Most Americans are moderate, with a small percentage of extreme conservatives or extreme liberals.
- Ideologies drive policies. Let’s review these ideologies with this brief question.
- Conservatives oppose government regulations and believe in a competitive market and free and fair trade.
- Now that we’ve learned about public opinion, let’s turn to how people participate in government. Voting and “citizen-to-citizen” participation are two ways that influence the government’s actions. Protest is also a form of political participation. Compared with voting, few people participate in protests, but the actions of those who do can substantially shape public opinion. Less than one person in four tries to influence how another person votes in an election and even fewer make financial contributions or participate in protest groups. Despite the small number of people who engage in these activities, they can make a difference in politics and government. Levels of political participation rose during the 2008 presidential election, in part because of increased use of the Internet to persuade and mobilize voters.
- Ten years from now, which of these activities would you expect to become more prevalent, and which less so?
- As previously mentioned, most people participate in politics by voting. Since the Civil War, voting eligibility has been expanded by legislation and constitutional amendments. Voter registration arose as a response to concerns about voting abuses, but, in fact, discourages voting as it adds an additional step to the voting process. Average turnout in the United States is more than 30 percent lower than in countries where voter registration is not required. Federal law now prevents a state from closing registration more than 30 days before a federal election. The burdens of voter registration were eased with the 1993 National Voter Registration Act, called the “Motor Voter” bill because it allows people to register while applying for or renewing a driver’s license. As a result of this law, more new voters have registered, although Motor Voter alone does not appear to have increased turnout. Increasing numbers of people have chosen to use absentee voting to vote early by mail. Three in ten voters in 2008 cast absentee ballots, the most in the history of the United States. In 1998, Oregon was the first state to switch to statewide elections done through the mail, an experiment that was widely seen as a success. Another innovation designed to make voting easier is allowing people to vote early; in 2012, 26 states allowed early voting.
- Our ideas about suffrage, the right to vote, have changed over time. This timeline about women’s suffrage is an example.
- How have “the people” included in our government by the people changed since the founding of our country?
- U.S. voters tend to be selective about the elections in which they vote because the United States holds more elections for more offices than any other democracy. The proportion of the voting-age public that votes is known as turnout. Turnout is higher in general elections than in primary elections, and higher in primary elections than in special elections. Local or municipal elections have lower turnout than state elections, and municipal primaries generally have the lowest rates of participation.
- Voter turnout began to drop significantly around 1900, in part as a result of election reforms.
- Midterm elections have lower voter turnouts.
- Voting varies widely among different groups. Education level is an important predictor in whether people will vote. Race and ethnic background are linked with different levels of voting, largely because they correlate with education. As a group, African Americans vote at lower rates than Caucasians, although this is beginning to change. In recent elections, both parties mounted major efforts to register and mobilize Hispanic voters, because Hispanics have become the largest minority group in the United States. Another historically underrepresented group, women, have voted in greater numbers than men since 1984, generally because of increasing levels of education and employment. Age is also highly correlated with the tendency to vote; as age increases, so does the proportion of persons voting.
- This poster, published by the League of Women Voters, urged women to use the vote the Nineteenth Amendment had given them.
- In a nation as evenly divided politically as the U.S., candidates must mobilize their most loyal supporters, or their base. Supporters urge residents to vote with postcards and phone calls. In states that allow early voters, supporters encourage people to vote early, a process called “banking the vote.” This reduces the list of people the campaigns needed to mobilize on Election Day. Campaigners learn which issues matter to potential voters and which candidates these voters prefer by conducting interviews on the telephone or in person, a process called a canvass. A major focus of mobilization efforts is the bloc of undecided or swing voters. These voters have received a great deal of attention in competitive states in recent elections.
- About 40 percent (approximately 80 million people) of all eligible citizens fail to vote. The United States compares favorably with other nations in political interest and awareness, but fails to convert this interest in politics into voting. Some political scientists argue that nonvoting does not change the outcome, as nonvoters closely resemble voters in policy views. Those who argue that nonvoting is a serious problem cite the “class bias” of those who do vote, but politicians generally cater to people who vote more than to people who don’t. Finally, low voter turnout may indicate approval of the status quo, while high voter turnout may signify disapproval and desire for change.
- What reforms could you suggest to help negate the most often cited reason for not voting?
- Some elections attract larger numbers of voters. Do you remember which one draws the highest turnout?
- Voter turnout is likely to be higher for presidential elections, despite the fact that many local and state elections have a direct impact of citizens.
- In their analyses of why people vote the way they do in elections, political scientists have identified three main elements of the voting choice: party identification, candidate appeal, and issues.
- The sense of identification with a political party is known as party identification. Interestingly, voters vote most often for a person from the party they prefer, rather than for the candidate. This is illustrated by the increasing numbers of Independent voters, two thirds of whom vote in a partisan manner. There are three types of Independents: left-leaning, pure, and right-leaning. Of these three types, pure Independents have the lowest rate of turnout, but most of them generally side with the winner in presidential elections. Independent leaners vote at about the same rate as partisans and more than pure Independents. This information on Independents reinforces the importance of partisanship in explaining voting choice; in short, there are few genuinely Independent voters, only about 10 to 11%.
- A second major explanation of voting choice is candidate appeal, described as how voters feel about a candidate’s background, and personal qualities. In candidate-centered politics, the candidates minimize partisanship and make their case directly to the voters, rather than relying on parties or groups. In many races, the candidates themselves become the major focus of attention, and the press has played the role of “character cop,” asking questions about candidates’ private lives. In some elections, candidate appeal has become more important than either party or issues.
- Issues have less influence on how people vote than party identification or candidate appeal, partly because candidates often intentionally obscure their positions. Issue voting becomes important when voters find the issue itself important, opposing candidates take opposite stands on the issue, and voters are aware of these positions. Wedge issues are those which motivate particular groups to vote and where the opposing party has a less popular position. Voters may vote on the basis of what the candidate promises to do. This is called prospective issue voting. Holding incumbents responsible for past performance is known as retrospective issue voting. Voters are more likely to vote for the opposition when they are unhappy about the economy or foreign policy. In times of peace or prosperity, voters reward incumbents with reelection.
- Effective campaigns give voters reasons to vote for their candidate and reasons to vote against the opposition. Political parties and interest groups are heavily engaged in all aspects of campaigning, and are often indistinguishable from the candidates’ campaigns. Spending more money does not guarantee that a candidate will win, although having enough money is necessary to run a competitive campaign. Campaigns are often negative and personal, but give voters a sense of how politicians react to adversity. Most intensely competitive races involve adversity.
- Let’s review what we’ve just discussed with this brief question.
- Voters hold incumbents responsible for their performance. When voters are unhappy with the times, they blame the incumbent.