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Credit Market Pulse 
∫ Heatmap spotlights risks in Europe 
∫ Scotland has lower credit risk levels 
∫ Concerns in Southern Europe remain; 
Developed Economies improve 
SEPTEMBER 2014 
ISSUE 5 
To subscribe to this bi-monthly report, visit: 
www.spcapitaliq-credit.com/creditmarketpulse
Credit Market Pulse 
Editors’ Note 
Welcome to the fifth issue of Credit Market Pulse. This is S&P Capital IQ’s bi-monthly snap shot of corporate credit risk 
conditions around the world. 
In addition to the global credit coverage that this 
publication consistently provides, we have added several 
features to this report including insight into credit 
questions around potential Scottish Independence, a 
Credit Risk Heatmap of Europe and a focus on Southern 
European countries. The values displayed in the heat-map 
and table below are based on median corporate PD values 
for entities covered by our PD Market Signals Model[1] 
Heat map spotlights risks in Europe 
zz Discord with Russia leaves Ukraine at the highest risk level 
zz Ireland has recovered remarkably to the lowest risk 
category, four years after its bailout. 
zz The bell-weather economies of continental Europe had 
large increases in median PD levels since mid-June 
Scotland has lower credit risk levels 
Looking at the heat map of Europe before the Scottish 
referendum on independence, we felt compelled to look at 
the PD levels of the UK split into two parts—Scotland and a 
UK without Scotland? We found that as of August 29th: 
zz The median PD for Scottish companies (0.17%) is lower 
than those of UK ex-Scotland (0.21%) 
zz Scotland’s mapped credit score ( ‘bbb+’) is one notch 
better than that of the UK, both with and without 
Scotland (‘bbb’). 
When we dig into individual sectors (see detailed table, 
bottom right) we do see some more interesting nuances. 
zz PDs in Energy and Industrial companies in Scotland (0.05% 
and 0.03% PDs, respectively) are both three notches better 
than the respective sectors in UK ex-Scotland 
zz Utility Sector PDs in Scotland are four notches better 
than UK Ex-Scotland 
zz Financials and Healthcare companies showed the reverse 
trend with these sectors both having 2-notch worse implied 
scores in Scotland than UK ex-Scotland. 
Concerns in Southern Europe remain; Developed 
Economies improve 
zz Credit risk in Western Europe has fallen below (lower median 
PD) that of APAC Mature for the first time in over a year. 
zz There is high risk volatility in Portugal following the 
collapse of Banco Espirito Santo. 
zz Risk levels on the S&P Europe 350® continued to fall 
from April 2014 highs, while S&P 500® risk levels 
dropped to multi-year lows. 
Heatmap: European Credit Risk 
Lowest Risk Highest Risk 
Strong Increase (>20%) 
Moderate Increase (10% to 20%) 
Moderate Decrease (-20% to -10%) 
Strong Decrease (<-20%) 
Czech Republic 
Estonia 
Percent change in Country Median PD 
since 6/15/2013 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: SP Capital IQTM. Data as of August 29, 2014. 
Sector Breakout: Scotland  U.K. 
 
Poland 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
 
 
Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine U.K. Austria Belgium 0.30% 
Croatia 0.94% 
Cyprus 3.20% 
Denmark 0.40% 
Finland 0.18% 
France 0.30% 
Germany 0.36% 
Greece 4.35% 
Ireland 0.09% 
Italy 0.87% 
Luxembourg 0.42% 
Malta 0.31% 
Netherlands 0.20% 
Norway 0.53% 
Poland 1.66% 
Portugal 2.54% 
Romania 1.40% 
Slovenia 0.29% 
Spain 0.66% 
Sweden 0.38% 
Switzerland 0.05% 
Turkey 0.54% 
Ukraine 18.57% 
U.K. 0.21% 
Scotland UK, Ex-Scotland 
0.20% 
Sector Count PD Mapped Score[2] VS. UK Ex- Count PD Mapped Score 
Consumer Disc. 16 0.84% bb+ — 207 0.54% bb+ 
Consumer Staples 3 0.09% a- +1 52 0.19% bbb+ 
Energy 8 0.05% a +3 78 0.28% bbb 
Financials 6 0.80% bb+ -2 33 0.22% bbb 
Healthcare 3 0.30% bbb -2 71 0.11% a- 
Industrials 12 0.03% a+ +3 221 0.13% bbb+ 
Information Tech. 8 0.09% a- — 170 0.12% a- 
Materials 5 0.17% bbb+ +1 90 0.26% bbb 
Telecom. Services 2 0.51% bbb- +1 16 0.57% bb+ 
Utilities 4 0.07% a +4 17 0.01% aa+ 
All 67 0.15% bbb+ +1 955 0.21% bbb 
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
[1] PDs are produced by SP Capital IQ Probability of Default Market Signals model. PD Market signals is a quantitative equity-based model that is completely independent from Standard  Poor’s Rating Services. We have excluded 
countries with fewer than 15 covered companies. Also note that the first section of the report (p. 3) utilizes a threshold of $500M USD in revenues and $1B USD in total assets, but median PDs in this heat-map include all entities covered. 
Finally note that we have assigned colors based on groupings of PDs mapped to credit scores such that a/a-/bbb+ are shown as dark green, bbb/bbb- light green, all ‘bb’s yellow, all ‘b’s orange and ccc (Ukraine only) as red. 
[2] PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. 
2 | SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 www.spcapitaliq.com
Global Credit Risk Trends 
SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE 
Portugal Spain Italy Greece Market Signals Probability of Default Regional Averages 
2011–2014 Quarterly PD Changes 
(Log scale) 
Sep 
2011 
Nov 
2011 
May 
2012 
Jan 
2012 
Mar 
2012 
July 
2012 
100 
10 
1 
0.1 
0 
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
GLOBAL VIEW 
Nov 
2012 
Jan 
2013 
May 
2013 
Sep 
2012 
2014 Monthly PD Changes 
Jul 
2014 
Mar 
2013 
Jul 
2013 
Sep 
2013 
Nov 
2013 
May 
2014 
Mar 
2014 
Jan 
2014 
North America Western Europe 
Southern Europe 
APAC Mature 
(Log scale) 
100.0 
10.0 
1.0 
0.1 
0 
Mar 
2014 
Apr 
2014 
Jul 
2014 
Aug 
2014 
Feb 
2014 
May 
2014 
Jun 
2014 
zz Mixed picture for developed markets with PDs for North America and APAC at record-low levels at 0.02% (aa-) and 0.06% (a), respectively. Western Europe 
appears most at risk with a PD of 0.11% (a-), running behind APAC for the first time in over a year. This scenario is supported by recent economic data, which 
indicates a further slowdown of the European economy as a direct consequence of current geopolitical affairs. 
SOUTHERN EUROPE 
zz Striking alignment between corporate credit risk levels and sovereign ratings for troubled Southern European countries: The median credit risk scores of 
large non-financials and financials either match or are just one notch off the sovereign rating of their domestic markets. As of August 29, the median scores 
are: Spain at bbb+ (0.15%) vs. a BBB sovereign rating by Standard  Poor’s Ratings Services (“SP Ratings”), Italy at bbb- (0.36%) vs. a BBB sovereign rating, 
Portugal at bb (1.26%) vs. a BB sovereign rating and Greece at b (5.29%) vs. a B- sovereign rating by SP Ratings. 
zz Private sector credit risk levels may be indicative of sovereign ratings changes. Under this assumption, the sovereign risk trends are positive for Spain and 
Greece because median credit risk scores of listed companies are one notch above their current sovereign rating, neutral for Portugal (same median credit risk 
score as sovereign rating) and negative for Italy, whose median credit risk for companies is one notch below its sovereign rating. This is supported by market data 
from five-year sovereign CDS spreads, which are substantially lower for Spain (66 bps) than for Italy (92 bps) despite an identical sovereign rating, and they are 
lowest for Greece (447 bps) among all sovereigns with a current sovereign rating of B-. 
zz Credit Risk in Greece remains very high. With a median one year PD of 5.29% our model predicts that on average 6 of the 114 large companies in Greece will 
default over the next 12 months. The median PD is significantly greater for its 27 large public financial institutions (6.27%) than for its 87 non-financials (4.22%). 
zz Portuguese companies exhibit greatest volatility as median PD levels more than doubled from 0.57% (bb+) to 1.26% (bb) over the last 3 months. However, these 
levels remain well below historical highs of more than 8% in early 2012. The recent banking crisis around Banco Espirito Santo appears to be under control by now. 
2014 Monthly PD Changes 
PD 
FEB 28, 
2014 
MAR 31, 
2014 
APR 30, 
2014 
MAY 30, 
2014 
JUN 30, 
2014 
JUL 31, 
2014 
AUG 29, 
2014 
North America (2366*) 0.05% 0.06% 0.10% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.02% 
Western Europe (1548*) 0.07% 0.08% 0.11% 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.11% 
APAC Mature (3178*) 0.14% 0.17% 0.23% 0.13% 0.09% 0.05% 0.06% 
Southern Europe (744*) 0.30% 0.25% 0.36% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% 0.58% 
Portugal (75*) 0.52% 0.51% 0.42% 0.57% 0.74% 1.21% 1.26% 
Spain (213*) 0.19% 0.15% 0.18% 0.16% 0.13% 0.13% 0.15% 
Italy (342*) 0.24% 0.17% 0.19% 0.21% 0.28% 0.34% 0.36% 
Greece (114*) 3.53% 3.49% 4.22% 5.41% 5.42% 5.39% 5.29% 
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
2014 Monthly PD Changes 
Mapped Score [1] 
FEB 28, 
2014 
MAR 31, 
2014 
APR 30, 
2014 
North America (2366*) a+ a a- a a a aa- 
Western Europe (1548*) a a- a- a- a- a- a- 
APAC Mature (3178*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb+ a- a a 
Southern Europe (744*) bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ 
Portugal (75*) bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ bb+ bb bb 
Spain (213*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ a- bbb+ bbb+ 
Italy (342*) bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- bbb- 
Greece (114*) b+ b+ b b b b b 
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
* Counts as of August 29, 2014. [1]PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. 
MAY 30, 
2014 
JUN 30, 
2014 
JUL 31, 
2014 
AUG 29, 
2014 
www.spcapitaliq.com SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 | 3
Credit Trends Behind Major Market Indexes 
Market Signal PD Index Averages; SP Europe 350 
2011–2014 Monthly PD Changes 
(Log scale) 
1.00 
0.10 
0.01 
Jul 
2013 
Sep 
2013 
Aug 
2013 
Nov 
2013 
Oct 
2013 
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
Jan 
2014 
Feb 
2014 
Dec 
2013 
SP EUROPE 350 POSES HIGHER RISKS THAN SP 500 
Mar 
2014 
SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE 
Consumer disc Consumer staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials 
Information technology Materials Telecom services Utilities SP Europe 350 
May 
2014 
Apr 
2014 
Jun 
2014 
Jul 
2014 
5-Week PD Changes 
(Log scale) 
Aug 1, 
2014 
Aug 8, 
2014 
Aug 15, 
2014 
Aug 22, 
2014 
Aug 29, 
2014 
1.00 
0.10 
0.01 
zz Risk on the SP Europe 350 Index (‘Euro 350’) dropped modestly from our last report date (June 13) to 0.11% as of Aug. 29, the lowest level since the Index 
PD high of 0.20% in mid-April. Overall risk levels are still up from the start of year PD of 0.07%. For perspective, the current PD value, 0.11% maps to an implied 
credit score of ‘a-’ and the 0.07% value maps to an ‘a’. On the other side of the Atlantic, SP 500 Index average PD reached its lowest level this year. In fact, 
the Aug. 29 average PD of 0.02% (‘aa-‘) was the lowest PD value we have seen since we started publishing this report. The risk level of the SP 500 is currently 
two notches better than the Euro 350. 
zz Telecoms dialed in the Highest Risk level for the Euro 350 (0.52% as of Aug. 29). Digging deeper we see that the sector’s risk dropped significantly from 0.8% 
in mid-June and 1.5% in mid-April. The drop appears to be largely due to a PD drop from 2.96% to 0.17% for Vodafone (which is the largest weighted Telecom 
constituent). Things would actually have been much better for the sector had Portugal Telecom not jumped to a PD of 44.5% though it contributed to only about 
28% of the sector’s overall risk level due to smaller representation. 
zz Geopolitical risk in Europe seems to be having adverse effects on the credit quality with U.S. markets potentially offering safe haven. This is underscored by 
the fact that while Financials’ had the highest SP 500 sector PD as of Aug. 29 at 0.07%, almost all (7/10) Euro 350 sectors had PD levels equal to or higher 
than that level. Inside SP 500 Financials, Citigroup Inc. had the highest individual PD at 0.32% (‘bbb’). Interestingly over 55% of the SP 500 Financials Risk 
was contributed by three large global banks – Citigroup plus JPMorgan Chase  Co. and Bank of America Corporation (both with a PD of 0.17%). 
zz Rising PD levels can be an early warning signal for potential credit deterioration. While the Euro 350 saw most of its sectors PD’s decreasing, there were three 
sectors that saw increases from mid-June through Aug. 29. Those sectors were Consumer Discretionary (from 0.04% to 0.07%), Energy (from 0.03% to 0.06%), 
Materials (from 0.10% to 0.15%) and Utilities (from 0.04% to 0.07%). On the flip side we see good news for European healthcare, with the sector showing the 
lowest overall PD in the Euro 350 at 0.01%. 
Weekly Euro 350 PD Change 
PD 
AUG. 1, 
2014 
AUG. 8, 
2014 
AUG. 15, 
2014 
AUG. 22, 
2014 
AUG. 29, 
2014 
Consumer Discretionary (52*) 0.13% 0.20% 0.17% 0.12% 0.11% 
Consumer Staples (32*) 0.06% 0.09% 0.07% 0.05% 0.07% 
Energy (19*) 0.06% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 0.06% 
Financials (70*) 0.16% 0.22% 0.20% 0.14% 0.12% 
Healthcare (19*) 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 
Industrials (70*) 0.17% 0.34% 0.22% 0.16% 0.14% 
Information Technology (14*) 0.03% 0.05% 0.06% 0.04% 0.04% 
Materials (37*) 0.15% 0.26% 0.19% 0.14% 0.15% 
Telecommunication Services (15*) 0.48% 0.74% 0.70% 0.63% 0.52% 
Utilities (22*) 0.07% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 
SP Europe 350 (350*,**) 0.12% 0.19% 0.16% 0.12% 0.11% 
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
Weekly Euro 350 PD Change 
Mapped Score [1] 
AUG. 1, 
2014 
AUG. 8, 
2014 
AUG. 15, 
2014 
AUG. 22, 
2014 
AUG. 29, 
2014 
Consumer Discretionary (52*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ a- a- 
Consumer Staples (32*) a a- a a+ a 
Energy (19*) a a a- a- a 
Financials (70*) bbb+ bbb bbb+ bbb+ a- 
Healthcare (19*) aa+ aa- aa aa+ aa+ 
Industrials (70*) bbb+ bbb- bbb bbb+ bbb+ 
Information Technology (14*) a+ a a a+ a+ 
Materials (37*) bbb+ bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ 
Telecommunication Services (15*) bbb- bb+ bb+ bb+ bbb- 
Utilities (22*) a a- a- a a 
SP Europe 350 (350*,**) a- bbb+ bbb+ a- a- 
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
* Counts as of August 29, 2014. [1] PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. **SP 500 and SP Europe 350 is inclusive of 
all SP 500 Index constituents that have SP Capital IQ PD Market Signal coverage. Industries are not index sub-indices, but rather, GICS 2-digit Sector groupings within the Index. 
4 | SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 www.spcapitaliq.com
Movers and Shakers 
REGION HIGHEST RISK IMPROVEMENT DETERIORATION 
Western 
Europe 
BDL:001190440 
Espirito Santo Financial Group SA 
XTRA:AB1 
Air Berlin PLC 
ENXTPA:FNTS 
Finatis SA 
North America TSX:PWC 
PWC Capital Inc. 
NasdaqGS:CZR 
Caesars Entertainment Corporation 
NYSE:S 
Sprint Corporation 
APAC Mature KOSE:A000700 
Hanjin Shipping Holdings Co. Ltd. 
TSE:3863 
Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. 
KOSE:A001230 
Dongkuk Steel Mill Co. Ltd. 
Portugal 
Spain 
Italy 
Greece 
ATSE:TGEN 
Geniki Bank S.A. 
ENXTLS:PTC 
Portugal Telecom, SGPS S.A. 
CATS:CDR 
Codere, S.A. 
SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 
*Espirito Santo filed for bankruptcy on July 18 so technically has a PD of 100%. 
SOUTHERN EUROPE** 
SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE 
(c) 
(100%*) 
WBAG:VBPS 
Österreichische Volksbanken- 
Aktiengesellschaft 
bbb - „ aa+ 
0.30% - „ 0.01% 
SWX:VATN 
Valiant Holding AG 
aaa - „ bbb 
0.01% - „ 0.31% 
(ccc+) 
(14.67%) 
LSE:ANTO 
Antofagasta plc 
bbb+ - „ aa+ 
0.14% - „ 0.01% 
ENXTPA:FNTS 
Finatis SA 
bbb - „ ccc+ 
0.27% - „ 12.88% 
(ccc+) 
(12.88%) 
OM:ICA 
ICA Gruppen AB 
a- - „ aaa 
0.09% - „ 0.01% 
SWX:BEKN 
Berner Kantonalbank AG 
aaa - „ bbb 
0.01% - „ 0.24% 
(ccc) 
(20.93%) 
NasdaqGS:WFD 
Westfield Financial Inc. 
b+ - „ aa 
2.28% - „ 0.02% 
NYSE:NRG 
NRG Energy, Inc. 
aaa - „ bbb 
0.01% - „ 0.32% 
(ccc) 
(20.42%) 
TSX:CCT 
Catamaran Corporation 
bb+ - „ aaa 
0.74% - „ 0.01% 
NYSE:RCAP 
RCS Capital Corporation 
bbb - „ b- 
0.26% - „ 6.59% 
(ccc+) 
(12.48%) 
AMEX:IMH 
Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. 
b - „ a 
4.56% - „ 0.08% 
NYSE:EXC 
Exelon Corporation 
aa - „ bbb- 
0.02% - „ 0.37% 
(b) 
(5.26%) 
TSE:6752 
Panasonic Corporation 
bb - „ aa+ 
0.93% - „ 0.01% 
TSEC:3702 
WPG Holdings Limited 
aaa - „ a 
0.01% - „ 0.06% 
(b+) 
(3.12%) 
TSE:9509 
Hokkaido Electric Power Co. Inc. 
b- - „ a 
6.15% - „ 0.07% 
TSE:1332 
Nippon Suisan Kaisha, Ltd. 
a - „ bb+ 
0.08% - „ 0.54% 
(b+) 
(2.57%) 
SEHK:1169 
Haier Electronics Group Co., Ltd. 
bb+ - „ aa+ 
0.80% - „ 0.01% 
TSE:2587 
Suntory Beverage  Food 
Limited 
aa+ - „ a 
0.01% - „ 0.08% 
(c) 
(89.02%) 
BIT:YOOX 
YOOX S.p.A. 
bb- - „ bbb+ 
2.24% - „ 0.13% 
ENXTLS:CPR 
Cimentos De Portugal, SGPS, S.A. 
bbb- - „ ccc+ 
0.49% - „ 14.36% 
(cc) 
(44.50%) 
BIT:FNC 
Finmeccanica SpA 
bb - „ a- 
0.93% - „ 0.12% 
BIT:MARR 
MARR SpA 
bbb+ - „ b+ 
0.16% - „ 2.85% 
(ccc-) 
(30.98%) 
BIT:STS 
Ansaldo STS SpA 
bb - „ bbb+ 
1.09% - „ 0.14% 
BIT:SO 
Sogefi SpA 
bbb - „ b 
0.32% - „ 3.70% 
zz Espirito Santo’s collapse was at the center of two other Highest PD companies in this month’s report. Portugal Telecom (ENXTLS:PTC) which has made 
several appearances has been in the process of a merger with Brazil’s OI SA (6.2% PD as of our June report). The revelation that they would be losing 900 
million euro on a bad debt owed by Espirito Santo seriously disrupted the planned merger and has resulted in Portugal Telecom’s agreement to take a smaller 
stake in the merged entity (25.6% as opposed to 38%). 
zz Cement makes for a sticky situation as Spain’s Cementos Portland Valderrivas (CATS:CPL) makes the highest PD list and Portugal’s Cimpor-Cimentos de 
Portugal (ENXTLS:CPR) sees large deterioration in credit quality. Cemontos which has seen three years of losses due to a sluggish Spanish construction 
industry just barely dodged a bullet and was able to defer a 50 million euro debt payment originally due on Jun. 30 to due on Sept. 30. Cimpor saw risk 
levels increase from an implied score of bbb to ccc+ as EBITDA contracted significantly from their Brazilian business. Spain’s gaming company Codere S.A. 
(CATS:CDR) also felt pain from Latin America; as the Argentine Peso devalued, their PD reached a lofty level in excess of 26%. 
zz High Fashion and the announcement of a Rail-sale have improved risk levels for a few Italian companies. YOOX S.P.A. (BIT:YOOX), Italy’s online high fashion 
retailer, saw PD levels drop from an implied score of bb- to bbb+ on a positive first half earnings report. Finmeccanica (BIT:FNC) announced that it plans to 
complete sales of rail units Ansaldo STS (BIT:STS)—also featured in biggest improvements—and Ansaldo Breda. Finmeccana saw implied scores drop from bb 
to a-, though we will see if the Sept. 3rd news that Canada’s Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) dropped out of the bidding makes things less rosy. 
zz Things are not as bad as they appear for Greek Bank Geniki Bank S.A. whose PD hit an extremely high peak of 89% on Aug. 29. Coincidently, this was the same 
day that good news came in the form of profits for the quarter compared to losses a year before—and on Sept. 8 2014, during the writing of this report, the PD 
had dropped down to 17%. Geniki was acquired by Piraeus Bank S.A. (ATSE:TPEIR) from SocGen for one million euros in Oct. 2012. The terms of sale included a 
444 million euro capital contribution by SocGen. 
**Details for the rest of the world can be found in the above chart and commentary has been written for some of those companies in prior reports. 
***PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. 
www.spcapitaliq.com SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 | 5
SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE 
About Credit Market Pulse 
Each issue of Credit Market Pulse has three core sections, providing different views of credit risk. These include the quarterly evolution of the regional median 
PDs; monthly evolution of the credit risk for constituents of a featured broad market equity index and its various industry sub-indices and PD tables for 
highest risk and biggest movers of entities. 
First section: the quarterly evolution of the median PD is shown for the last three years with a monthly blow-out for the most recent six months. Our charts 
depict all listed companies headquartered in North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific Mature as well as featured regions and countries. We exclude non-financial 
companies that have revenues below $500M USD and financial companies with total assets under $1B USD. To arrive at the overall PD we combine 
the non-financial and financial company medians using a simple average[1]. 
Second section: the PDs of a major market equity index and its various industry sub-indices are generated and aggregated into weighted average PDs and 
the monthly evolution of the credit risk is shown for the last year with a weekly blowout for the most recent five weeks.[2] Please note that for SP Capital IQ 
subscribers, an Excel® template is available for users to replicate this section with other indices. 
Third section: a table of individual companies that merit special attention. In this edition, we are featuring Highest PD companies and Biggest Movers[3] from 
the three global regions as well as the Southern European countries of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. For the global regions we look at companies with 
revenues over $5B USD or Total Assets over $1B USD (for financial companies). For the Southern European region we dropped the revenue threshold to $500M 
USD to pick-up sufficient coverage. 
[1]The median PD is preferred over the average PD because it is less sensitive to outliers. The revenue threshold is utilized because North America and some other developed countries and regions have higher concentrations of 
small and micro-cap companies that negatively skew the credit view of the region (if they are included) when compared to the other regions. [2]Weightings are adjusted for companies that do not produce a PD value. [3]Biggest 
movers are calculated based on the number of notches moved since the prior publication date (in this case from June 13, 2014 to August 29, 2014). Notches are based on the implied credit score which is calculated from the PD 
using historical default transition table. Ties are broken based on PD percentage change—which is not used as the primary measure because it skews results significantly to lower risk companies. 
Thomas Yagel 
Vice President, 
Credit Market Development, 
SP Capital IQ 
Marcel Heinrichs 
Director, 
Market Development Americas, 
SP Capital IQ 
Silvina Aldeco-Martinez 
Managing Director, 
Product  Market Development 
EMEA, 
SP Capital IQ 
Authors 
CONTACT US: The Americas | +1 212 438 7280 Asia-Pacific | +852 2533 3588 Europe, Middle East and Africa | +44 (0) 20 7176 1233 
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Credit Market Pulse by SP Issues 5 sep2014

  • 1. Credit Market Pulse ∫ Heatmap spotlights risks in Europe ∫ Scotland has lower credit risk levels ∫ Concerns in Southern Europe remain; Developed Economies improve SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 To subscribe to this bi-monthly report, visit: www.spcapitaliq-credit.com/creditmarketpulse
  • 2. Credit Market Pulse Editors’ Note Welcome to the fifth issue of Credit Market Pulse. This is S&P Capital IQ’s bi-monthly snap shot of corporate credit risk conditions around the world. In addition to the global credit coverage that this publication consistently provides, we have added several features to this report including insight into credit questions around potential Scottish Independence, a Credit Risk Heatmap of Europe and a focus on Southern European countries. The values displayed in the heat-map and table below are based on median corporate PD values for entities covered by our PD Market Signals Model[1] Heat map spotlights risks in Europe zz Discord with Russia leaves Ukraine at the highest risk level zz Ireland has recovered remarkably to the lowest risk category, four years after its bailout. zz The bell-weather economies of continental Europe had large increases in median PD levels since mid-June Scotland has lower credit risk levels Looking at the heat map of Europe before the Scottish referendum on independence, we felt compelled to look at the PD levels of the UK split into two parts—Scotland and a UK without Scotland? We found that as of August 29th: zz The median PD for Scottish companies (0.17%) is lower than those of UK ex-Scotland (0.21%) zz Scotland’s mapped credit score ( ‘bbb+’) is one notch better than that of the UK, both with and without Scotland (‘bbb’). When we dig into individual sectors (see detailed table, bottom right) we do see some more interesting nuances. zz PDs in Energy and Industrial companies in Scotland (0.05% and 0.03% PDs, respectively) are both three notches better than the respective sectors in UK ex-Scotland zz Utility Sector PDs in Scotland are four notches better than UK Ex-Scotland zz Financials and Healthcare companies showed the reverse trend with these sectors both having 2-notch worse implied scores in Scotland than UK ex-Scotland. Concerns in Southern Europe remain; Developed Economies improve zz Credit risk in Western Europe has fallen below (lower median PD) that of APAC Mature for the first time in over a year. zz There is high risk volatility in Portugal following the collapse of Banco Espirito Santo. zz Risk levels on the S&P Europe 350® continued to fall from April 2014 highs, while S&P 500® risk levels dropped to multi-year lows. Heatmap: European Credit Risk Lowest Risk Highest Risk Strong Increase (>20%) Moderate Increase (10% to 20%) Moderate Decrease (-20% to -10%) Strong Decrease (<-20%) Czech Republic Estonia Percent change in Country Median PD since 6/15/2013 Source: SP Capital IQTM. Data as of August 29, 2014. Sector Breakout: Scotland U.K. Poland Romania Slovenia Slovakia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine U.K. Austria Belgium 0.30% Croatia 0.94% Cyprus 3.20% Denmark 0.40% Finland 0.18% France 0.30% Germany 0.36% Greece 4.35% Ireland 0.09% Italy 0.87% Luxembourg 0.42% Malta 0.31% Netherlands 0.20% Norway 0.53% Poland 1.66% Portugal 2.54% Romania 1.40% Slovenia 0.29% Spain 0.66% Sweden 0.38% Switzerland 0.05% Turkey 0.54% Ukraine 18.57% U.K. 0.21% Scotland UK, Ex-Scotland 0.20% Sector Count PD Mapped Score[2] VS. UK Ex- Count PD Mapped Score Consumer Disc. 16 0.84% bb+ — 207 0.54% bb+ Consumer Staples 3 0.09% a- +1 52 0.19% bbb+ Energy 8 0.05% a +3 78 0.28% bbb Financials 6 0.80% bb+ -2 33 0.22% bbb Healthcare 3 0.30% bbb -2 71 0.11% a- Industrials 12 0.03% a+ +3 221 0.13% bbb+ Information Tech. 8 0.09% a- — 170 0.12% a- Materials 5 0.17% bbb+ +1 90 0.26% bbb Telecom. Services 2 0.51% bbb- +1 16 0.57% bb+ Utilities 4 0.07% a +4 17 0.01% aa+ All 67 0.15% bbb+ +1 955 0.21% bbb Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 [1] PDs are produced by SP Capital IQ Probability of Default Market Signals model. PD Market signals is a quantitative equity-based model that is completely independent from Standard Poor’s Rating Services. We have excluded countries with fewer than 15 covered companies. Also note that the first section of the report (p. 3) utilizes a threshold of $500M USD in revenues and $1B USD in total assets, but median PDs in this heat-map include all entities covered. Finally note that we have assigned colors based on groupings of PDs mapped to credit scores such that a/a-/bbb+ are shown as dark green, bbb/bbb- light green, all ‘bb’s yellow, all ‘b’s orange and ccc (Ukraine only) as red. [2] PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. 2 | SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 www.spcapitaliq.com
  • 3. Global Credit Risk Trends SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE Portugal Spain Italy Greece Market Signals Probability of Default Regional Averages 2011–2014 Quarterly PD Changes (Log scale) Sep 2011 Nov 2011 May 2012 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 July 2012 100 10 1 0.1 0 Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 GLOBAL VIEW Nov 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sep 2012 2014 Monthly PD Changes Jul 2014 Mar 2013 Jul 2013 Sep 2013 Nov 2013 May 2014 Mar 2014 Jan 2014 North America Western Europe Southern Europe APAC Mature (Log scale) 100.0 10.0 1.0 0.1 0 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Feb 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 zz Mixed picture for developed markets with PDs for North America and APAC at record-low levels at 0.02% (aa-) and 0.06% (a), respectively. Western Europe appears most at risk with a PD of 0.11% (a-), running behind APAC for the first time in over a year. This scenario is supported by recent economic data, which indicates a further slowdown of the European economy as a direct consequence of current geopolitical affairs. SOUTHERN EUROPE zz Striking alignment between corporate credit risk levels and sovereign ratings for troubled Southern European countries: The median credit risk scores of large non-financials and financials either match or are just one notch off the sovereign rating of their domestic markets. As of August 29, the median scores are: Spain at bbb+ (0.15%) vs. a BBB sovereign rating by Standard Poor’s Ratings Services (“SP Ratings”), Italy at bbb- (0.36%) vs. a BBB sovereign rating, Portugal at bb (1.26%) vs. a BB sovereign rating and Greece at b (5.29%) vs. a B- sovereign rating by SP Ratings. zz Private sector credit risk levels may be indicative of sovereign ratings changes. Under this assumption, the sovereign risk trends are positive for Spain and Greece because median credit risk scores of listed companies are one notch above their current sovereign rating, neutral for Portugal (same median credit risk score as sovereign rating) and negative for Italy, whose median credit risk for companies is one notch below its sovereign rating. This is supported by market data from five-year sovereign CDS spreads, which are substantially lower for Spain (66 bps) than for Italy (92 bps) despite an identical sovereign rating, and they are lowest for Greece (447 bps) among all sovereigns with a current sovereign rating of B-. zz Credit Risk in Greece remains very high. With a median one year PD of 5.29% our model predicts that on average 6 of the 114 large companies in Greece will default over the next 12 months. The median PD is significantly greater for its 27 large public financial institutions (6.27%) than for its 87 non-financials (4.22%). zz Portuguese companies exhibit greatest volatility as median PD levels more than doubled from 0.57% (bb+) to 1.26% (bb) over the last 3 months. However, these levels remain well below historical highs of more than 8% in early 2012. The recent banking crisis around Banco Espirito Santo appears to be under control by now. 2014 Monthly PD Changes PD FEB 28, 2014 MAR 31, 2014 APR 30, 2014 MAY 30, 2014 JUN 30, 2014 JUL 31, 2014 AUG 29, 2014 North America (2366*) 0.05% 0.06% 0.10% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.02% Western Europe (1548*) 0.07% 0.08% 0.11% 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.11% APAC Mature (3178*) 0.14% 0.17% 0.23% 0.13% 0.09% 0.05% 0.06% Southern Europe (744*) 0.30% 0.25% 0.36% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% 0.58% Portugal (75*) 0.52% 0.51% 0.42% 0.57% 0.74% 1.21% 1.26% Spain (213*) 0.19% 0.15% 0.18% 0.16% 0.13% 0.13% 0.15% Italy (342*) 0.24% 0.17% 0.19% 0.21% 0.28% 0.34% 0.36% Greece (114*) 3.53% 3.49% 4.22% 5.41% 5.42% 5.39% 5.29% Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 2014 Monthly PD Changes Mapped Score [1] FEB 28, 2014 MAR 31, 2014 APR 30, 2014 North America (2366*) a+ a a- a a a aa- Western Europe (1548*) a a- a- a- a- a- a- APAC Mature (3178*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb+ a- a a Southern Europe (744*) bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ Portugal (75*) bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ bb+ bb bb Spain (213*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ a- bbb+ bbb+ Italy (342*) bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- bbb- Greece (114*) b+ b+ b b b b b Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 * Counts as of August 29, 2014. [1]PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. MAY 30, 2014 JUN 30, 2014 JUL 31, 2014 AUG 29, 2014 www.spcapitaliq.com SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 | 3
  • 4. Credit Trends Behind Major Market Indexes Market Signal PD Index Averages; SP Europe 350 2011–2014 Monthly PD Changes (Log scale) 1.00 0.10 0.01 Jul 2013 Sep 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Oct 2013 Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Dec 2013 SP EUROPE 350 POSES HIGHER RISKS THAN SP 500 Mar 2014 SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE Consumer disc Consumer staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Information technology Materials Telecom services Utilities SP Europe 350 May 2014 Apr 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 5-Week PD Changes (Log scale) Aug 1, 2014 Aug 8, 2014 Aug 15, 2014 Aug 22, 2014 Aug 29, 2014 1.00 0.10 0.01 zz Risk on the SP Europe 350 Index (‘Euro 350’) dropped modestly from our last report date (June 13) to 0.11% as of Aug. 29, the lowest level since the Index PD high of 0.20% in mid-April. Overall risk levels are still up from the start of year PD of 0.07%. For perspective, the current PD value, 0.11% maps to an implied credit score of ‘a-’ and the 0.07% value maps to an ‘a’. On the other side of the Atlantic, SP 500 Index average PD reached its lowest level this year. In fact, the Aug. 29 average PD of 0.02% (‘aa-‘) was the lowest PD value we have seen since we started publishing this report. The risk level of the SP 500 is currently two notches better than the Euro 350. zz Telecoms dialed in the Highest Risk level for the Euro 350 (0.52% as of Aug. 29). Digging deeper we see that the sector’s risk dropped significantly from 0.8% in mid-June and 1.5% in mid-April. The drop appears to be largely due to a PD drop from 2.96% to 0.17% for Vodafone (which is the largest weighted Telecom constituent). Things would actually have been much better for the sector had Portugal Telecom not jumped to a PD of 44.5% though it contributed to only about 28% of the sector’s overall risk level due to smaller representation. zz Geopolitical risk in Europe seems to be having adverse effects on the credit quality with U.S. markets potentially offering safe haven. This is underscored by the fact that while Financials’ had the highest SP 500 sector PD as of Aug. 29 at 0.07%, almost all (7/10) Euro 350 sectors had PD levels equal to or higher than that level. Inside SP 500 Financials, Citigroup Inc. had the highest individual PD at 0.32% (‘bbb’). Interestingly over 55% of the SP 500 Financials Risk was contributed by three large global banks – Citigroup plus JPMorgan Chase Co. and Bank of America Corporation (both with a PD of 0.17%). zz Rising PD levels can be an early warning signal for potential credit deterioration. While the Euro 350 saw most of its sectors PD’s decreasing, there were three sectors that saw increases from mid-June through Aug. 29. Those sectors were Consumer Discretionary (from 0.04% to 0.07%), Energy (from 0.03% to 0.06%), Materials (from 0.10% to 0.15%) and Utilities (from 0.04% to 0.07%). On the flip side we see good news for European healthcare, with the sector showing the lowest overall PD in the Euro 350 at 0.01%. Weekly Euro 350 PD Change PD AUG. 1, 2014 AUG. 8, 2014 AUG. 15, 2014 AUG. 22, 2014 AUG. 29, 2014 Consumer Discretionary (52*) 0.13% 0.20% 0.17% 0.12% 0.11% Consumer Staples (32*) 0.06% 0.09% 0.07% 0.05% 0.07% Energy (19*) 0.06% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 0.06% Financials (70*) 0.16% 0.22% 0.20% 0.14% 0.12% Healthcare (19*) 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% Industrials (70*) 0.17% 0.34% 0.22% 0.16% 0.14% Information Technology (14*) 0.03% 0.05% 0.06% 0.04% 0.04% Materials (37*) 0.15% 0.26% 0.19% 0.14% 0.15% Telecommunication Services (15*) 0.48% 0.74% 0.70% 0.63% 0.52% Utilities (22*) 0.07% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% SP Europe 350 (350*,**) 0.12% 0.19% 0.16% 0.12% 0.11% Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 Weekly Euro 350 PD Change Mapped Score [1] AUG. 1, 2014 AUG. 8, 2014 AUG. 15, 2014 AUG. 22, 2014 AUG. 29, 2014 Consumer Discretionary (52*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ a- a- Consumer Staples (32*) a a- a a+ a Energy (19*) a a a- a- a Financials (70*) bbb+ bbb bbb+ bbb+ a- Healthcare (19*) aa+ aa- aa aa+ aa+ Industrials (70*) bbb+ bbb- bbb bbb+ bbb+ Information Technology (14*) a+ a a a+ a+ Materials (37*) bbb+ bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ Telecommunication Services (15*) bbb- bb+ bb+ bb+ bbb- Utilities (22*) a a- a- a a SP Europe 350 (350*,**) a- bbb+ bbb+ a- a- Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 * Counts as of August 29, 2014. [1] PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. **SP 500 and SP Europe 350 is inclusive of all SP 500 Index constituents that have SP Capital IQ PD Market Signal coverage. Industries are not index sub-indices, but rather, GICS 2-digit Sector groupings within the Index. 4 | SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 www.spcapitaliq.com
  • 5. Movers and Shakers REGION HIGHEST RISK IMPROVEMENT DETERIORATION Western Europe BDL:001190440 Espirito Santo Financial Group SA XTRA:AB1 Air Berlin PLC ENXTPA:FNTS Finatis SA North America TSX:PWC PWC Capital Inc. NasdaqGS:CZR Caesars Entertainment Corporation NYSE:S Sprint Corporation APAC Mature KOSE:A000700 Hanjin Shipping Holdings Co. Ltd. TSE:3863 Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. KOSE:A001230 Dongkuk Steel Mill Co. Ltd. Portugal Spain Italy Greece ATSE:TGEN Geniki Bank S.A. ENXTLS:PTC Portugal Telecom, SGPS S.A. CATS:CDR Codere, S.A. SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014 *Espirito Santo filed for bankruptcy on July 18 so technically has a PD of 100%. SOUTHERN EUROPE** SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE (c) (100%*) WBAG:VBPS Österreichische Volksbanken- Aktiengesellschaft bbb - „ aa+ 0.30% - „ 0.01% SWX:VATN Valiant Holding AG aaa - „ bbb 0.01% - „ 0.31% (ccc+) (14.67%) LSE:ANTO Antofagasta plc bbb+ - „ aa+ 0.14% - „ 0.01% ENXTPA:FNTS Finatis SA bbb - „ ccc+ 0.27% - „ 12.88% (ccc+) (12.88%) OM:ICA ICA Gruppen AB a- - „ aaa 0.09% - „ 0.01% SWX:BEKN Berner Kantonalbank AG aaa - „ bbb 0.01% - „ 0.24% (ccc) (20.93%) NasdaqGS:WFD Westfield Financial Inc. b+ - „ aa 2.28% - „ 0.02% NYSE:NRG NRG Energy, Inc. aaa - „ bbb 0.01% - „ 0.32% (ccc) (20.42%) TSX:CCT Catamaran Corporation bb+ - „ aaa 0.74% - „ 0.01% NYSE:RCAP RCS Capital Corporation bbb - „ b- 0.26% - „ 6.59% (ccc+) (12.48%) AMEX:IMH Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. b - „ a 4.56% - „ 0.08% NYSE:EXC Exelon Corporation aa - „ bbb- 0.02% - „ 0.37% (b) (5.26%) TSE:6752 Panasonic Corporation bb - „ aa+ 0.93% - „ 0.01% TSEC:3702 WPG Holdings Limited aaa - „ a 0.01% - „ 0.06% (b+) (3.12%) TSE:9509 Hokkaido Electric Power Co. Inc. b- - „ a 6.15% - „ 0.07% TSE:1332 Nippon Suisan Kaisha, Ltd. a - „ bb+ 0.08% - „ 0.54% (b+) (2.57%) SEHK:1169 Haier Electronics Group Co., Ltd. bb+ - „ aa+ 0.80% - „ 0.01% TSE:2587 Suntory Beverage Food Limited aa+ - „ a 0.01% - „ 0.08% (c) (89.02%) BIT:YOOX YOOX S.p.A. bb- - „ bbb+ 2.24% - „ 0.13% ENXTLS:CPR Cimentos De Portugal, SGPS, S.A. bbb- - „ ccc+ 0.49% - „ 14.36% (cc) (44.50%) BIT:FNC Finmeccanica SpA bb - „ a- 0.93% - „ 0.12% BIT:MARR MARR SpA bbb+ - „ b+ 0.16% - „ 2.85% (ccc-) (30.98%) BIT:STS Ansaldo STS SpA bb - „ bbb+ 1.09% - „ 0.14% BIT:SO Sogefi SpA bbb - „ b 0.32% - „ 3.70% zz Espirito Santo’s collapse was at the center of two other Highest PD companies in this month’s report. Portugal Telecom (ENXTLS:PTC) which has made several appearances has been in the process of a merger with Brazil’s OI SA (6.2% PD as of our June report). The revelation that they would be losing 900 million euro on a bad debt owed by Espirito Santo seriously disrupted the planned merger and has resulted in Portugal Telecom’s agreement to take a smaller stake in the merged entity (25.6% as opposed to 38%). zz Cement makes for a sticky situation as Spain’s Cementos Portland Valderrivas (CATS:CPL) makes the highest PD list and Portugal’s Cimpor-Cimentos de Portugal (ENXTLS:CPR) sees large deterioration in credit quality. Cemontos which has seen three years of losses due to a sluggish Spanish construction industry just barely dodged a bullet and was able to defer a 50 million euro debt payment originally due on Jun. 30 to due on Sept. 30. Cimpor saw risk levels increase from an implied score of bbb to ccc+ as EBITDA contracted significantly from their Brazilian business. Spain’s gaming company Codere S.A. (CATS:CDR) also felt pain from Latin America; as the Argentine Peso devalued, their PD reached a lofty level in excess of 26%. zz High Fashion and the announcement of a Rail-sale have improved risk levels for a few Italian companies. YOOX S.P.A. (BIT:YOOX), Italy’s online high fashion retailer, saw PD levels drop from an implied score of bb- to bbb+ on a positive first half earnings report. Finmeccanica (BIT:FNC) announced that it plans to complete sales of rail units Ansaldo STS (BIT:STS)—also featured in biggest improvements—and Ansaldo Breda. Finmeccana saw implied scores drop from bb to a-, though we will see if the Sept. 3rd news that Canada’s Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) dropped out of the bidding makes things less rosy. zz Things are not as bad as they appear for Greek Bank Geniki Bank S.A. whose PD hit an extremely high peak of 89% on Aug. 29. Coincidently, this was the same day that good news came in the form of profits for the quarter compared to losses a year before—and on Sept. 8 2014, during the writing of this report, the PD had dropped down to 17%. Geniki was acquired by Piraeus Bank S.A. (ATSE:TPEIR) from SocGen for one million euros in Oct. 2012. The terms of sale included a 444 million euro capital contribution by SocGen. **Details for the rest of the world can be found in the above chart and commentary has been written for some of those companies in prior reports. ***PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. www.spcapitaliq.com SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 | 5
  • 6. SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE About Credit Market Pulse Each issue of Credit Market Pulse has three core sections, providing different views of credit risk. These include the quarterly evolution of the regional median PDs; monthly evolution of the credit risk for constituents of a featured broad market equity index and its various industry sub-indices and PD tables for highest risk and biggest movers of entities. First section: the quarterly evolution of the median PD is shown for the last three years with a monthly blow-out for the most recent six months. Our charts depict all listed companies headquartered in North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific Mature as well as featured regions and countries. We exclude non-financial companies that have revenues below $500M USD and financial companies with total assets under $1B USD. To arrive at the overall PD we combine the non-financial and financial company medians using a simple average[1]. Second section: the PDs of a major market equity index and its various industry sub-indices are generated and aggregated into weighted average PDs and the monthly evolution of the credit risk is shown for the last year with a weekly blowout for the most recent five weeks.[2] Please note that for SP Capital IQ subscribers, an Excel® template is available for users to replicate this section with other indices. Third section: a table of individual companies that merit special attention. In this edition, we are featuring Highest PD companies and Biggest Movers[3] from the three global regions as well as the Southern European countries of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. For the global regions we look at companies with revenues over $5B USD or Total Assets over $1B USD (for financial companies). For the Southern European region we dropped the revenue threshold to $500M USD to pick-up sufficient coverage. [1]The median PD is preferred over the average PD because it is less sensitive to outliers. The revenue threshold is utilized because North America and some other developed countries and regions have higher concentrations of small and micro-cap companies that negatively skew the credit view of the region (if they are included) when compared to the other regions. [2]Weightings are adjusted for companies that do not produce a PD value. [3]Biggest movers are calculated based on the number of notches moved since the prior publication date (in this case from June 13, 2014 to August 29, 2014). Notches are based on the implied credit score which is calculated from the PD using historical default transition table. Ties are broken based on PD percentage change—which is not used as the primary measure because it skews results significantly to lower risk companies. Thomas Yagel Vice President, Credit Market Development, SP Capital IQ Marcel Heinrichs Director, Market Development Americas, SP Capital IQ Silvina Aldeco-Martinez Managing Director, Product Market Development EMEA, SP Capital IQ Authors CONTACT US: The Americas | +1 212 438 7280 Asia-Pacific | +852 2533 3588 Europe, Middle East and Africa | +44 (0) 20 7176 1233 Copyright © 2014 Standard Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. STANDARD POOR’S, SP, SP 500 and SP EUROPE 350 are registered trademarks of Standard Poor’s Financial Services LLC. SP CAPITAL IQ is a trademark of Standard Poor’s Financial Services LLC. SP Capital IQ, a part of McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE:MHFI), is a leading provider of multi-asset class and real time data, research and analytics to institutional investors, investment and commercial banks, investment advisors and wealth managers, corporations and universities around the world. 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