1. Credit Market Pulse
∫ Heatmap spotlights risks in Europe
∫ Scotland has lower credit risk levels
∫ Concerns in Southern Europe remain;
Developed Economies improve
SEPTEMBER 2014
ISSUE 5
To subscribe to this bi-monthly report, visit:
www.spcapitaliq-credit.com/creditmarketpulse
2. Credit Market Pulse
Editors’ Note
Welcome to the fifth issue of Credit Market Pulse. This is S&P Capital IQ’s bi-monthly snap shot of corporate credit risk
conditions around the world.
In addition to the global credit coverage that this
publication consistently provides, we have added several
features to this report including insight into credit
questions around potential Scottish Independence, a
Credit Risk Heatmap of Europe and a focus on Southern
European countries. The values displayed in the heat-map
and table below are based on median corporate PD values
for entities covered by our PD Market Signals Model[1]
Heat map spotlights risks in Europe
zz Discord with Russia leaves Ukraine at the highest risk level
zz Ireland has recovered remarkably to the lowest risk
category, four years after its bailout.
zz The bell-weather economies of continental Europe had
large increases in median PD levels since mid-June
Scotland has lower credit risk levels
Looking at the heat map of Europe before the Scottish
referendum on independence, we felt compelled to look at
the PD levels of the UK split into two parts—Scotland and a
UK without Scotland? We found that as of August 29th:
zz The median PD for Scottish companies (0.17%) is lower
than those of UK ex-Scotland (0.21%)
zz Scotland’s mapped credit score ( ‘bbb+’) is one notch
better than that of the UK, both with and without
Scotland (‘bbb’).
When we dig into individual sectors (see detailed table,
bottom right) we do see some more interesting nuances.
zz PDs in Energy and Industrial companies in Scotland (0.05%
and 0.03% PDs, respectively) are both three notches better
than the respective sectors in UK ex-Scotland
zz Utility Sector PDs in Scotland are four notches better
than UK Ex-Scotland
zz Financials and Healthcare companies showed the reverse
trend with these sectors both having 2-notch worse implied
scores in Scotland than UK ex-Scotland.
Concerns in Southern Europe remain; Developed
Economies improve
zz Credit risk in Western Europe has fallen below (lower median
PD) that of APAC Mature for the first time in over a year.
zz There is high risk volatility in Portugal following the
collapse of Banco Espirito Santo.
zz Risk levels on the S&P Europe 350® continued to fall
from April 2014 highs, while S&P 500® risk levels
dropped to multi-year lows.
Heatmap: European Credit Risk
Lowest Risk Highest Risk
Strong Increase (>20%)
Moderate Increase (10% to 20%)
Moderate Decrease (-20% to -10%)
Strong Decrease (<-20%)
Czech Republic
Estonia
Percent change in Country Median PD
since 6/15/2013
Source: SP Capital IQTM. Data as of August 29, 2014.
Sector Breakout: Scotland U.K.
Poland
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine U.K. Austria Belgium 0.30%
Croatia 0.94%
Cyprus 3.20%
Denmark 0.40%
Finland 0.18%
France 0.30%
Germany 0.36%
Greece 4.35%
Ireland 0.09%
Italy 0.87%
Luxembourg 0.42%
Malta 0.31%
Netherlands 0.20%
Norway 0.53%
Poland 1.66%
Portugal 2.54%
Romania 1.40%
Slovenia 0.29%
Spain 0.66%
Sweden 0.38%
Switzerland 0.05%
Turkey 0.54%
Ukraine 18.57%
U.K. 0.21%
Scotland UK, Ex-Scotland
0.20%
Sector Count PD Mapped Score[2] VS. UK Ex- Count PD Mapped Score
Consumer Disc. 16 0.84% bb+ — 207 0.54% bb+
Consumer Staples 3 0.09% a- +1 52 0.19% bbb+
Energy 8 0.05% a +3 78 0.28% bbb
Financials 6 0.80% bb+ -2 33 0.22% bbb
Healthcare 3 0.30% bbb -2 71 0.11% a-
Industrials 12 0.03% a+ +3 221 0.13% bbb+
Information Tech. 8 0.09% a- — 170 0.12% a-
Materials 5 0.17% bbb+ +1 90 0.26% bbb
Telecom. Services 2 0.51% bbb- +1 16 0.57% bb+
Utilities 4 0.07% a +4 17 0.01% aa+
All 67 0.15% bbb+ +1 955 0.21% bbb
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
[1] PDs are produced by SP Capital IQ Probability of Default Market Signals model. PD Market signals is a quantitative equity-based model that is completely independent from Standard Poor’s Rating Services. We have excluded
countries with fewer than 15 covered companies. Also note that the first section of the report (p. 3) utilizes a threshold of $500M USD in revenues and $1B USD in total assets, but median PDs in this heat-map include all entities covered.
Finally note that we have assigned colors based on groupings of PDs mapped to credit scores such that a/a-/bbb+ are shown as dark green, bbb/bbb- light green, all ‘bb’s yellow, all ‘b’s orange and ccc (Ukraine only) as red.
[2] PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings.
2 | SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 www.spcapitaliq.com
3. Global Credit Risk Trends
SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE
Portugal Spain Italy Greece Market Signals Probability of Default Regional Averages
2011–2014 Quarterly PD Changes
(Log scale)
Sep
2011
Nov
2011
May
2012
Jan
2012
Mar
2012
July
2012
100
10
1
0.1
0
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
GLOBAL VIEW
Nov
2012
Jan
2013
May
2013
Sep
2012
2014 Monthly PD Changes
Jul
2014
Mar
2013
Jul
2013
Sep
2013
Nov
2013
May
2014
Mar
2014
Jan
2014
North America Western Europe
Southern Europe
APAC Mature
(Log scale)
100.0
10.0
1.0
0.1
0
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Feb
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
zz Mixed picture for developed markets with PDs for North America and APAC at record-low levels at 0.02% (aa-) and 0.06% (a), respectively. Western Europe
appears most at risk with a PD of 0.11% (a-), running behind APAC for the first time in over a year. This scenario is supported by recent economic data, which
indicates a further slowdown of the European economy as a direct consequence of current geopolitical affairs.
SOUTHERN EUROPE
zz Striking alignment between corporate credit risk levels and sovereign ratings for troubled Southern European countries: The median credit risk scores of
large non-financials and financials either match or are just one notch off the sovereign rating of their domestic markets. As of August 29, the median scores
are: Spain at bbb+ (0.15%) vs. a BBB sovereign rating by Standard Poor’s Ratings Services (“SP Ratings”), Italy at bbb- (0.36%) vs. a BBB sovereign rating,
Portugal at bb (1.26%) vs. a BB sovereign rating and Greece at b (5.29%) vs. a B- sovereign rating by SP Ratings.
zz Private sector credit risk levels may be indicative of sovereign ratings changes. Under this assumption, the sovereign risk trends are positive for Spain and
Greece because median credit risk scores of listed companies are one notch above their current sovereign rating, neutral for Portugal (same median credit risk
score as sovereign rating) and negative for Italy, whose median credit risk for companies is one notch below its sovereign rating. This is supported by market data
from five-year sovereign CDS spreads, which are substantially lower for Spain (66 bps) than for Italy (92 bps) despite an identical sovereign rating, and they are
lowest for Greece (447 bps) among all sovereigns with a current sovereign rating of B-.
zz Credit Risk in Greece remains very high. With a median one year PD of 5.29% our model predicts that on average 6 of the 114 large companies in Greece will
default over the next 12 months. The median PD is significantly greater for its 27 large public financial institutions (6.27%) than for its 87 non-financials (4.22%).
zz Portuguese companies exhibit greatest volatility as median PD levels more than doubled from 0.57% (bb+) to 1.26% (bb) over the last 3 months. However, these
levels remain well below historical highs of more than 8% in early 2012. The recent banking crisis around Banco Espirito Santo appears to be under control by now.
2014 Monthly PD Changes
PD
FEB 28,
2014
MAR 31,
2014
APR 30,
2014
MAY 30,
2014
JUN 30,
2014
JUL 31,
2014
AUG 29,
2014
North America (2366*) 0.05% 0.06% 0.10% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.02%
Western Europe (1548*) 0.07% 0.08% 0.11% 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.11%
APAC Mature (3178*) 0.14% 0.17% 0.23% 0.13% 0.09% 0.05% 0.06%
Southern Europe (744*) 0.30% 0.25% 0.36% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% 0.58%
Portugal (75*) 0.52% 0.51% 0.42% 0.57% 0.74% 1.21% 1.26%
Spain (213*) 0.19% 0.15% 0.18% 0.16% 0.13% 0.13% 0.15%
Italy (342*) 0.24% 0.17% 0.19% 0.21% 0.28% 0.34% 0.36%
Greece (114*) 3.53% 3.49% 4.22% 5.41% 5.42% 5.39% 5.29%
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
2014 Monthly PD Changes
Mapped Score [1]
FEB 28,
2014
MAR 31,
2014
APR 30,
2014
North America (2366*) a+ a a- a a a aa-
Western Europe (1548*) a a- a- a- a- a- a-
APAC Mature (3178*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb+ a- a a
Southern Europe (744*) bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+
Portugal (75*) bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ bb+ bb bb
Spain (213*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ a- bbb+ bbb+
Italy (342*) bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- bbb-
Greece (114*) b+ b+ b b b b b
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
* Counts as of August 29, 2014. [1]PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings.
MAY 30,
2014
JUN 30,
2014
JUL 31,
2014
AUG 29,
2014
www.spcapitaliq.com SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 | 3
4. Credit Trends Behind Major Market Indexes
Market Signal PD Index Averages; SP Europe 350
2011–2014 Monthly PD Changes
(Log scale)
1.00
0.10
0.01
Jul
2013
Sep
2013
Aug
2013
Nov
2013
Oct
2013
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Dec
2013
SP EUROPE 350 POSES HIGHER RISKS THAN SP 500
Mar
2014
SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE
Consumer disc Consumer staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials
Information technology Materials Telecom services Utilities SP Europe 350
May
2014
Apr
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
5-Week PD Changes
(Log scale)
Aug 1,
2014
Aug 8,
2014
Aug 15,
2014
Aug 22,
2014
Aug 29,
2014
1.00
0.10
0.01
zz Risk on the SP Europe 350 Index (‘Euro 350’) dropped modestly from our last report date (June 13) to 0.11% as of Aug. 29, the lowest level since the Index
PD high of 0.20% in mid-April. Overall risk levels are still up from the start of year PD of 0.07%. For perspective, the current PD value, 0.11% maps to an implied
credit score of ‘a-’ and the 0.07% value maps to an ‘a’. On the other side of the Atlantic, SP 500 Index average PD reached its lowest level this year. In fact,
the Aug. 29 average PD of 0.02% (‘aa-‘) was the lowest PD value we have seen since we started publishing this report. The risk level of the SP 500 is currently
two notches better than the Euro 350.
zz Telecoms dialed in the Highest Risk level for the Euro 350 (0.52% as of Aug. 29). Digging deeper we see that the sector’s risk dropped significantly from 0.8%
in mid-June and 1.5% in mid-April. The drop appears to be largely due to a PD drop from 2.96% to 0.17% for Vodafone (which is the largest weighted Telecom
constituent). Things would actually have been much better for the sector had Portugal Telecom not jumped to a PD of 44.5% though it contributed to only about
28% of the sector’s overall risk level due to smaller representation.
zz Geopolitical risk in Europe seems to be having adverse effects on the credit quality with U.S. markets potentially offering safe haven. This is underscored by
the fact that while Financials’ had the highest SP 500 sector PD as of Aug. 29 at 0.07%, almost all (7/10) Euro 350 sectors had PD levels equal to or higher
than that level. Inside SP 500 Financials, Citigroup Inc. had the highest individual PD at 0.32% (‘bbb’). Interestingly over 55% of the SP 500 Financials Risk
was contributed by three large global banks – Citigroup plus JPMorgan Chase Co. and Bank of America Corporation (both with a PD of 0.17%).
zz Rising PD levels can be an early warning signal for potential credit deterioration. While the Euro 350 saw most of its sectors PD’s decreasing, there were three
sectors that saw increases from mid-June through Aug. 29. Those sectors were Consumer Discretionary (from 0.04% to 0.07%), Energy (from 0.03% to 0.06%),
Materials (from 0.10% to 0.15%) and Utilities (from 0.04% to 0.07%). On the flip side we see good news for European healthcare, with the sector showing the
lowest overall PD in the Euro 350 at 0.01%.
Weekly Euro 350 PD Change
PD
AUG. 1,
2014
AUG. 8,
2014
AUG. 15,
2014
AUG. 22,
2014
AUG. 29,
2014
Consumer Discretionary (52*) 0.13% 0.20% 0.17% 0.12% 0.11%
Consumer Staples (32*) 0.06% 0.09% 0.07% 0.05% 0.07%
Energy (19*) 0.06% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 0.06%
Financials (70*) 0.16% 0.22% 0.20% 0.14% 0.12%
Healthcare (19*) 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01%
Industrials (70*) 0.17% 0.34% 0.22% 0.16% 0.14%
Information Technology (14*) 0.03% 0.05% 0.06% 0.04% 0.04%
Materials (37*) 0.15% 0.26% 0.19% 0.14% 0.15%
Telecommunication Services (15*) 0.48% 0.74% 0.70% 0.63% 0.52%
Utilities (22*) 0.07% 0.12% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07%
SP Europe 350 (350*,**) 0.12% 0.19% 0.16% 0.12% 0.11%
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
Weekly Euro 350 PD Change
Mapped Score [1]
AUG. 1,
2014
AUG. 8,
2014
AUG. 15,
2014
AUG. 22,
2014
AUG. 29,
2014
Consumer Discretionary (52*) bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ a- a-
Consumer Staples (32*) a a- a a+ a
Energy (19*) a a a- a- a
Financials (70*) bbb+ bbb bbb+ bbb+ a-
Healthcare (19*) aa+ aa- aa aa+ aa+
Industrials (70*) bbb+ bbb- bbb bbb+ bbb+
Information Technology (14*) a+ a a a+ a+
Materials (37*) bbb+ bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb+
Telecommunication Services (15*) bbb- bb+ bb+ bb+ bbb-
Utilities (22*) a a- a- a a
SP Europe 350 (350*,**) a- bbb+ bbb+ a- a-
Source: SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
* Counts as of August 29, 2014. [1] PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings. **SP 500 and SP Europe 350 is inclusive of
all SP 500 Index constituents that have SP Capital IQ PD Market Signal coverage. Industries are not index sub-indices, but rather, GICS 2-digit Sector groupings within the Index.
4 | SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 www.spcapitaliq.com
5. Movers and Shakers
REGION HIGHEST RISK IMPROVEMENT DETERIORATION
Western
Europe
BDL:001190440
Espirito Santo Financial Group SA
XTRA:AB1
Air Berlin PLC
ENXTPA:FNTS
Finatis SA
North America TSX:PWC
PWC Capital Inc.
NasdaqGS:CZR
Caesars Entertainment Corporation
NYSE:S
Sprint Corporation
APAC Mature KOSE:A000700
Hanjin Shipping Holdings Co. Ltd.
TSE:3863
Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.
KOSE:A001230
Dongkuk Steel Mill Co. Ltd.
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Greece
ATSE:TGEN
Geniki Bank S.A.
ENXTLS:PTC
Portugal Telecom, SGPS S.A.
CATS:CDR
Codere, S.A.
SP Capital IQ. Data as of August 29, 2014
*Espirito Santo filed for bankruptcy on July 18 so technically has a PD of 100%.
SOUTHERN EUROPE**
SP CAPITAL IQ CREDIT MARKET PULSE
(c)
(100%*)
WBAG:VBPS
Österreichische Volksbanken-
Aktiengesellschaft
bbb - „ aa+
0.30% - „ 0.01%
SWX:VATN
Valiant Holding AG
aaa - „ bbb
0.01% - „ 0.31%
(ccc+)
(14.67%)
LSE:ANTO
Antofagasta plc
bbb+ - „ aa+
0.14% - „ 0.01%
ENXTPA:FNTS
Finatis SA
bbb - „ ccc+
0.27% - „ 12.88%
(ccc+)
(12.88%)
OM:ICA
ICA Gruppen AB
a- - „ aaa
0.09% - „ 0.01%
SWX:BEKN
Berner Kantonalbank AG
aaa - „ bbb
0.01% - „ 0.24%
(ccc)
(20.93%)
NasdaqGS:WFD
Westfield Financial Inc.
b+ - „ aa
2.28% - „ 0.02%
NYSE:NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
aaa - „ bbb
0.01% - „ 0.32%
(ccc)
(20.42%)
TSX:CCT
Catamaran Corporation
bb+ - „ aaa
0.74% - „ 0.01%
NYSE:RCAP
RCS Capital Corporation
bbb - „ b-
0.26% - „ 6.59%
(ccc+)
(12.48%)
AMEX:IMH
Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc.
b - „ a
4.56% - „ 0.08%
NYSE:EXC
Exelon Corporation
aa - „ bbb-
0.02% - „ 0.37%
(b)
(5.26%)
TSE:6752
Panasonic Corporation
bb - „ aa+
0.93% - „ 0.01%
TSEC:3702
WPG Holdings Limited
aaa - „ a
0.01% - „ 0.06%
(b+)
(3.12%)
TSE:9509
Hokkaido Electric Power Co. Inc.
b- - „ a
6.15% - „ 0.07%
TSE:1332
Nippon Suisan Kaisha, Ltd.
a - „ bb+
0.08% - „ 0.54%
(b+)
(2.57%)
SEHK:1169
Haier Electronics Group Co., Ltd.
bb+ - „ aa+
0.80% - „ 0.01%
TSE:2587
Suntory Beverage Food
Limited
aa+ - „ a
0.01% - „ 0.08%
(c)
(89.02%)
BIT:YOOX
YOOX S.p.A.
bb- - „ bbb+
2.24% - „ 0.13%
ENXTLS:CPR
Cimentos De Portugal, SGPS, S.A.
bbb- - „ ccc+
0.49% - „ 14.36%
(cc)
(44.50%)
BIT:FNC
Finmeccanica SpA
bb - „ a-
0.93% - „ 0.12%
BIT:MARR
MARR SpA
bbb+ - „ b+
0.16% - „ 2.85%
(ccc-)
(30.98%)
BIT:STS
Ansaldo STS SpA
bb - „ bbb+
1.09% - „ 0.14%
BIT:SO
Sogefi SpA
bbb - „ b
0.32% - „ 3.70%
zz Espirito Santo’s collapse was at the center of two other Highest PD companies in this month’s report. Portugal Telecom (ENXTLS:PTC) which has made
several appearances has been in the process of a merger with Brazil’s OI SA (6.2% PD as of our June report). The revelation that they would be losing 900
million euro on a bad debt owed by Espirito Santo seriously disrupted the planned merger and has resulted in Portugal Telecom’s agreement to take a smaller
stake in the merged entity (25.6% as opposed to 38%).
zz Cement makes for a sticky situation as Spain’s Cementos Portland Valderrivas (CATS:CPL) makes the highest PD list and Portugal’s Cimpor-Cimentos de
Portugal (ENXTLS:CPR) sees large deterioration in credit quality. Cemontos which has seen three years of losses due to a sluggish Spanish construction
industry just barely dodged a bullet and was able to defer a 50 million euro debt payment originally due on Jun. 30 to due on Sept. 30. Cimpor saw risk
levels increase from an implied score of bbb to ccc+ as EBITDA contracted significantly from their Brazilian business. Spain’s gaming company Codere S.A.
(CATS:CDR) also felt pain from Latin America; as the Argentine Peso devalued, their PD reached a lofty level in excess of 26%.
zz High Fashion and the announcement of a Rail-sale have improved risk levels for a few Italian companies. YOOX S.P.A. (BIT:YOOX), Italy’s online high fashion
retailer, saw PD levels drop from an implied score of bb- to bbb+ on a positive first half earnings report. Finmeccanica (BIT:FNC) announced that it plans to
complete sales of rail units Ansaldo STS (BIT:STS)—also featured in biggest improvements—and Ansaldo Breda. Finmeccana saw implied scores drop from bb
to a-, though we will see if the Sept. 3rd news that Canada’s Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) dropped out of the bidding makes things less rosy.
zz Things are not as bad as they appear for Greek Bank Geniki Bank S.A. whose PD hit an extremely high peak of 89% on Aug. 29. Coincidently, this was the same
day that good news came in the form of profits for the quarter compared to losses a year before—and on Sept. 8 2014, during the writing of this report, the PD
had dropped down to 17%. Geniki was acquired by Piraeus Bank S.A. (ATSE:TPEIR) from SocGen for one million euros in Oct. 2012. The terms of sale included a
444 million euro capital contribution by SocGen.
**Details for the rest of the world can be found in the above chart and commentary has been written for some of those companies in prior reports.
***PD Market Signal mapped scores are represented by lowercase nomenclature to differentiate them from SP Ratings Services credit ratings.
www.spcapitaliq.com SEPTEMBER 2014 ISSUE 5 | 5