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1 22-2019 Decarbonization Methods in Vermont

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Predictions, Projections and Assumptions -

Opposing views showing the amount of destruction of Vermont Mountain Vista's, 30,000 Acres of Solar Panel Farms while raising the COST of Living Affordability while only having 18,800 Jobs in Vermont's present Job landscape with a #50 Vermont NEGATIVE -0.9% Job growth.

$15,500,000,000 or $15.5 Billion "Climate Change", "Carbon Taxes", "Carbon Offsets" $500,000,000 Million a year X 31 years = $15.5 Billion Dollars, Wake Up Vermonters $15,500,000,000 Billion Dollars to reach 90% Renewable 2050 Goals in #50 Vermont Smallest Carbon Footprint State.

It's All About the Money, Public Service Board $500,000,000 Million a year, 30,000 Acres, 200 Miles of Industrial Wind Turbines in 154 Mile North to South Vermont Borders.

"New Green Deal" for Vermont Legislature, Public Service Board Goals 75% 2032, 90% 2050 Renewable Energy Goals.

Presently 3 Industrial Wind Turbine Developments with 200 Miles of Industrial Wind Turbines needed to reach those Goals.

State of Vermont, Public Service Board Goals Industrial Wind Turbine Developments x2 by 2018, x3 by 2019, x4 by 2021, x5 by 2027, x6 by 2030, x8 by 2032

That is A LOT of Ridge Destruction in 31 short years in #50 Vermont Smallest Carbon Footprint State in the Country.

2004 State of Vermont National Treasure status for the whole State of Vermont. 31 Short years the DESTRUCTION of 200 Miles of Industrial Wind Turbines, 30,000 Acres Solar Panel Plans.

$500,000,000 Million a year need "Carbon Taxes", "Carbon Pollution Fees", "Carbon Offsets" x 31 years = $15,500,000,000 Billion Dollars.

https://youtu.be/_IoZrzYUq_c

Website www.greenmountainrepublicans.org updates coming with new data.

#GreenMountainRepublicans #ClimateChange #CarbonTaxes #VTHouse #VTSenate #VermontDepartmentOfTaxes #Research #NoCarbonTaxesVermont #NewGreenDealPlan #PublicServiceBoardVermont #JustSayNoToTheCarbonsTaxes

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1 22-2019 Decarbonization Methods in Vermont

  1. 1. 1 An Analysis of Decarbonization Methods in Vermont Marc Hafstead and Wesley Look Resources for the Future Montpelier, VT January 2019 An Analysis of Decarbonization Methods in Vermont Marc Hafstead and Wesley Look Montpelier, VT January 2019
  2. 2. An Analysis of Decarbonization Methods in Vermont 2 As requested by the Vermont General Assembly in Act 11 (June 2018), this report provides information on policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Vermont Our study aims to inform the policy dialogue, but it is not intended to address the complete universe of policy options. We do not offer specific policy recommendations.
  3. 3. About Resources For the Future (RFF) Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. 3
  4. 4. VT emissions have been increasing since 2011… 4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHGEmissions(MMTCO2e) Year 2012 statutory target: 6.45 MMTCO2e 2028 statutory target: 4.30 MMTCO2e 2050 statutory target: 2.15 MMTCO2e 2028 US Climate Alliance: 7.46 MMTCO2e 2050 Under2 MOU: 1.07 MMTCO2e 2030 NEG/ECP: 5.15 MMTCO2e
  5. 5. and are not expected to meet any of the state’s targets 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHGEmissions(MMTCO2e) Year 2012 statutory target: 6.45 MMTCO2e 2028 statutory target: 4.30 MMTCO2e 2050 statutory target: 2.15 MMTCO2e 2028 US Climate Alliance: 7.46 MMTCO2e 2050 Under2 MOU: 1.07 MMTCO2e 2030 NEG/ECP: 5.15 MMTCO2e
  6. 6. The Vermont context is important 6 Res/Com Fuel Use 24% Electric Generation 10% Agriculture 11% Waste 2% Industrial Processes 6% Fossil Fuel Industry 0% Transportation 43% Industrial Fuel Use 4% VERMONT GHG EMISSIONS Res/Com Fuel Use 10% Electric Generation 30% Agriculture 8% Waste 2% Industrial Processes 4% Fossil Fuel Industry 3% Transportation 29% Industrial Fuel Use 14% U.S. GHG EMISSIONS Transportation and Residential/Commercial Fuel Use for Heating are difficult to decarbonize (because close noncarbon substitutes are very expensive)
  7. 7. Policy Options Considered in this Report • Carbon Pricing Policies • Carbon Tax or Cap-and-Trade Programs • A quantitative analysis of costs and benefits across a range of policy designs • Nonpricing Policies • Including, but not limited to, electric vehicle (EV) and energy efficiency incentives, weatherization programs, investments in low-carbon agriculture • A qualitative review of emission reduction potential of Vermont Climate Action Commission (VCAC) recommendations and 100 percent Renewable Energy Standard 7
  8. 8. Carbon pricing policies vary by • Price (directly through tax or indirectly through cap-and- trade) • Sectors Covered • Revenue Use • Geographical Scope $20 carbon price is equivalent to tax of 0.18 cents per gallon on gasoline 8
  9. 9. We consider four alternative carbon price paths 9 ESSEX Price Path: $5 per ton in 2020, rising at $5 each year until the price reaches $40 and stays constant (in 2015$). WCI Price Path: $15.22 per ton in 2020, rising at 5 percent (above inflation) annually. This implies $19.43 in 2025 and $24.79 in 2030 (in 2015$). High Price Path: $60 per ton in 2020, rising at 5 percent (above inflation) annually. The price reaches $76.58 in 2025 and $97.73 in 2030 (in 2015$). Medium Price Path: $30 per ton in 2020, rising at 5 percent (above inflation) annually. The price reaches $38.29 in 2025 and $48.87 in 2030 (in 2015$).
  10. 10. We consider three alternative revenue-uses 10 • Lump-Sum Rebates: Net revenue is returned equally through equal per household payments to all Vermont households. • Tax Cuts on Wage Income: Net revenue is used to finance reductions in state taxes on wage income. • Electricity Rebates: Net revenue is used to finance reductions in electricity rates for residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Note: we do not quantitatively model the use of revenue to invest in nonpricing policies, due to time and budget constraints
  11. 11. We consider three alternative sectoral scopes 11 • Economy-Wide (electricity exempt): transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial sectors • Transportation and Heating: Residential & commercial use of heating fuels, and transportation (transportation emissions include emissions from household purchases of motor vehicle fuels and the transportation sector’s purchase of refined petroleum products) • Transportation Only: Transportation carbon dioxide emissions only.
  12. 12. We consider two alternative regional scopes 12 • Vermont-only: Vermont acts on its own to implement additional carbon pricing policies. • Regional: All New England states act together under one unified carbon pricing policy.
  13. 13. Key Finding: Carbon pricing-only unlikely to meet US Climate Alliance targets (26-28% below 2005) 13 Projected GHG emissions in 2025 relative to 2005 Carbon Price Policy TCI WCI ESSEX High Price Carbon Pricing-Only -12.9% -13.6% -14.3% -19.3%
  14. 14. Key Finding: Carbon pricing-only unlikely to meet US Climate Alliance targets (26-28% below 2005) 14 Projected GHG emissions in 2025 relative to 2005 Carbon Price Policy TCI WCI ESSEX High Price Carbon Pricing-Only -12.9% -13.6% -14.3% -19.3% TCI: Cap-and-Trade Program on Transportation Emissions Only , $19.42 in 2025 (in 2015$) WCI: Cap-and-Trade Program on Transportation and Heating Emissions, $19.42 in 2025 (in 2015$) ESSEX: Economy-wide Carbon Tax (Electricity Exempt), $30 in 2025 (in 2015$) High Price: Economy-wide Carbon Tax (Electricity Exempt), $76.58 in 2025 (in 2015$)
  15. 15. Nonpricing Policies • Electric Vehicle (EV) incentives • Weatherization programs • Energy efficiency programs • 100 percent Renewable Energy Standard (RES) • Relied on estimates from the Vermont Climate Action Commission (VCAC) – over 50 individual policy recommendations 15
  16. 16. Key Finding: Combined approaches consistent with 2025 US Climate Alliance targets (26-28% below 2005) 16 Projected GHG emissions in 2025 relative to 2005 Carbon Price Policy TCI WCI ESSEX High Price Carbon Pricing-Only -12.9% -13.6% -14.3% -19.3% Combined Pricing and Nonpricing approach -31.6% -32.5% -33.7% -38.0%
  17. 17. Key Finding: Combined approaches consistent with 2025 US Climate Alliance targets (26-28% below 2005) 17 Projected GHG emissions in 2025 relative to 2005 Carbon Price Policy TCI WCI ESSEX High Price Carbon Pricing-Only -12.9% -13.6% -14.3% -19.3% Combined Pricing and Nonpricing approach -31.6% -32.5% -33.7% -38.0% TCI: Cap-and-Trade Program on Transportation Emissions Only , $19.42 in 2025 (in 2015$) WCI: Cap-and-Trade Program on Transportation and Heating Emissions, $19.42 in 2025 (in 2015$) ESSEX: Economy-wide Carbon Tax (Electricity Exempt), $30 in 2025 (in 2015$) High Price: Economy-wide Carbon Tax (Electricity Exempt), $76.58 in 2025 (in 2015$) Nonpricing: Implementation of all VCAC recommendations; 100% RES; median estimates of reductions
  18. 18. Measuring costs and benefits of carbon pricing • Costs • Increased prices for fuels and energy-intensive goods • Changes in income • GDP and employment changes • Benefits • GHG reductions • Criteria Air Pollutant Reductions 18
  19. 19. Key Finding: Economic impact of carbon pricing is small • The combined climate and health benefits of the carbon pricing policies would exceed the economic costs for every carbon pricing scenario considered in this report. 19 2025 TCI* WCI* ESSEX** High Price* Change in Economic Welfare per Household (2015$) -$28 -$47 -$71 -$240 Environmental Benefits per Household (2015$) $56 $78 $133 $317 Percentage Change in State GDP -0.01% -0.02% 0.05% -0.08% Percentage Change in Total Labor Demand -0.01% -0.02% 0.05% -0.05% Annual Revenue (Millions 2015$) $75 $121 $183 $434 * Revenues rebated to households. ** Revenues rebated to low-income households and electricity subsidies
  20. 20. Key Finding: Economic impact of carbon pricing is small • Impacts on state GDP and level of employment would be very small, regardless of policy design 20 2025 TCI* WCI* ESSEX** High Price* Change in Economic Welfare per Household (2015$) -$28 -$47 -$71 -$240 Environmental Benefits per Household (2015$) $56 $78 $133 $317 Percentage Change in State GDP -0.01% -0.02% 0.05% -0.08% Percentage Change in Total Labor Demand -0.01% -0.02% 0.05% -0.05% Annual Revenue (Millions 2015$) $75 $121 $183 $434 * Revenues rebated to households. ** Revenues rebated to low-income households and electricity subsidies
  21. 21. Key Finding: Economic impact of carbon pricing is small • A carbon pricing policy would generate significant annual revenue for the state, depending on the carbon price level and the number of sectors covered. 21 2025 TCI* WCI* ESSEX** High Price* Change in Economic Welfare per Household (2015$) -$28 -$47 -$71 -$240 Environmental Benefits per Household (2015$) $56 $78 $133 $317 Percentage Change in State GDP -0.01% -0.02% 0.05% -0.08% Percentage Change in Total Labor Demand -0.01% -0.02% 0.05% -0.05% Annual Revenue (Millions 2015$) $75 $121 $183 $434 * Revenues rebated to households. ** Revenues rebated to low-income households and electricity subsidies
  22. 22. Key Finding: Economic impacts are not evenly distributed 22 • Low-income and rural households spend larger fraction of income on energy • Carbon-intensive industries affected more than other industries
  23. 23. Key Finding: Policies can be designed to offset impacts on low-income and rural households 23 Economic Welfare Change in 2020 (2015$ per household) Carbon Price Policy TCI* WCI* ESSEX** High Price* Quintile 1 $53 $96 $37 $414 Quintile 2 $18 $35 $24 $171 Quintile 3 -$18 -$38 $5 -$132 Quintile 4 -$22 -$15 -$46 -$82 Quintile 5 -$122 -$251 -$51 -$1,240 Urban (Chittenden County) -$13 -$12 $0 -$122 Rural (Weighted average, all other counties) -$20 -$42 -$8 -$191 * Revenues rebated to households. ** Revenues rebated to low-income households and electricity subsidies
  24. 24. Key Finding: Policies can be designed to offset impacts on low-income and rural households 24 Economic Welfare Change in 2020 (2015$ per household) Carbon Price Policy TCI* WCI* ESSEX** High Price* Quintile 1 $53 $96 $37 $414 Quintile 2 $18 $35 $24 $171 Quintile 3 -$18 -$38 $5 -$132 Quintile 4 -$22 -$15 -$46 -$82 Quintile 5 -$122 -$251 -$51 -$1,240 Urban (Chittenden County) -$13 -$12 $0 -$122 Rural (Weighted average, all other counties) -$20 -$42 -$8 -$191 * Revenues rebated to households. ** Revenues rebated to low-income households and electricity subsidies
  25. 25. Key Finding: Revenue use introduces trade-offs • According to our modeling analysis, per household rebates more than offset the costs of increased energy prices for the average low-income household. • Reducing taxes on wage income would lower the overall cost to Vermont’s economy relative to other options considered, but these cuts would not fully offset higher energy prices. • Devoting revenue to finance nonpricing policies would reduce emissions further, but would also impose higher costs on Vermonters, because this would reduce funds that could be used to partially or fully offset the economic impacts on households of carbon pricing. 25
  26. 26. Caveats • We do not model policy-induced innovation • Average household impacts mask potentially large differences in impacts for specific households. No two households are the same and impacts will vary considerably. • New Hampshire border remains an issue to Vermont-only policies • Difficult to predict how many drivers would increase gasoline purchases out of state. • Further analysis is required to understand the full environmental and economic impacts of nonpricing policies. 26
  27. 27. 27 Thank you! Thank You

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