IHS military, terrorism and country risk experts assess strike options, the US reaction, and Jihadist chatter on Syria.

1. Syria: US/UK Strike
Options, US Response
and Jihadist Chatter
IHS Expert Analysis and Comment

2. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 2
Strike Options
Jeremy Binnie, Middle East & Africa Editor
• ‘Limited strike’ option would use ‘stand-off’ weapons such as
Tomahawk cruise missiles to minimise danger to US personnel
• These would target the most significant Syrian military facilities and assets
• Essentially punishment for using chemical weapons rather than an attempt
to decisively swing the balance of power in favour of the opposition
• An operation to neutralise Syria’s chemical warfare capabilities
would be far more extensive
• Likely involving a no-fly zone and deployment of thousands of Special
Forces on the ground to secure chemical weapons storage, research and
production facilities
• Implication is that the US military does not see a way of safely destroying
chemical weapons using air/missile strikes alone

3. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 3
UK Military Options
Nick de Larrinaga, Europe Editor
• Likelihood of small-scale, precision strikes has significantly
increased since Britain, France and the US essentially accused
Assad of using chemical weapons
• UK and US submarines are likely already deployed to the eastern
Mediterranean waters or the Gulf for such a contingency
• UK’s Cyprus air base could play a supporting role to any military action
• It is unlikely that manned sorties into Syrian airspace will occur at this point
given the risks involved.
• UN Security Council-endorsed military action is a no-go because
Russia and China would likely veto it
• Given past talk of ‘red lines’ it appears likely that some form of military
response is now inevitable – either US-led coalition or NATO-endorsed
mission

4. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 4
US Response
Alexia Ash, Head of North America Analysis
• The US is faced with the reality that the ‘red lines’ it may have
ignored last year have been crossed
• With the shadow of the country’s status as a world power hanging
over President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, the US is
very likely to intervene
• The US is particularly concerned about the stability of the region,
as the rapid escalation of the Syrian conflict will impact Lebanon,
Iraq, and Israel

5. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 5
Jihadist Chatter
Charles Lister, Terrorism & Insurgency Analyst
• Jihadists and sympathisers are distributing advice online relating
to best practice in avoiding targeted strikes
• There is a widespread perception within the jihadi community that
any strikes could also target their senior leadership in Syria
• Lessons learned from Iraq, Afghanistan and Mali are being shared
• Most relate to putting all senior leaders in hiding and keeping their locations
completely secret; planning future attacks as soon as possible so operations
can continue when commanders are in hiding; and stockpiling food and
medicine supplies for days to weeks
• There has been no suggestion from the US or any other allied
power that militants could also be targeted in any future strikes
• It appears that jihadists are essentially hedging their bets
• They have too much to lose if no precautions are taken

6. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 6
Jihadist Chatter
Charles Lister, Terrorism & Insurgency Analyst
• If jihadist leaders were to be targeted, the majority of strikes
would target jihadist stronghold areas in Aleppo, northern Latakia,
Al-Raqqah and possibly also as far east as Deir ez Zour
• Smaller jihadist-run bases further south in Rif Dimashq and Deraa
are feasible, but these are unlikely to house senior leadership
figures

7. Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. 7
This analysis and comment has been
extracted from IHS insight products
including the following:
>IHS Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency
Centre
>IHS Jane’s Military & Security
Assessments Intelligence Centre
>IHS Advanced Country Analysis &
Forecast