Global Healthcare and Pharma Outlook:Top Ten Key Industry Drivers for 2013
Presented by                                                                       Gustav Ando                            ...
Introduction        Key industry drivers, identified by the healthcare        practice team at IHS, covering pharmaceutica...
1. The foundations for economic recovery are in place     Spend will be up in the United States and emerging      markets...
2. The United States will experience “Gap Year Syndrome”     The focus will be on implementing Medicaid expansion      – ...
3. Europe/Eurozone instability will continue   to suppress public health expenditure     Greece and Italy will experience...
4. Political changes in Germany and Italy   will change the healthcare landscape     In Germany, federal elections in Sep...
5. The patent cliff will stabilize, but headwinds still felt      Second year of the patent cliff but a drop-off from the...
6. China, Brazil, and Russia   lead the way in healthy growth     China’s growth should still hit double-digits next year...
7. India will continue to lag, despite best efforts     Healthcare reform remains several years behind other      emergin...
8. Latin America will see increased harmonization  With the implementation of a new regional drug pricing   database for ...
9. New “game-changing” technology developments    will drive future growth      Celgene’s pomalidomide is a key potential...
10. Biosimilars will spring into action      The FDA has approved biosimilar Neupogen, with Teva       positioned to laun...
Want to get more insight into drug pricing?Dynamic Pharmaceutical Pricing 2012: What’s Really Behind Drug Prices?This stud...
IHS Healthcare Multi-Client Studies 2011-2012• Dynamic Pricing 2012: What’s Really Behind Drug Price Changes• The New REAl...
Visit the IHS Healthcare and Pharma blogGet weekly insights on global healthcare policy, market     access, pricing and re...
Gustav Ando                       Director                       Healthcare and Pharma                       IHS          ...
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IHS Global Insight Healthcare and Pharma Top 10 Industry Drivers for 2013

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Top_10_IHS_Global_Healthcare_and_Pharma_Industry_Drivers_2013

  1. 1. Global Healthcare and Pharma Outlook:Top Ten Key Industry Drivers for 2013
  2. 2. Presented by Gustav Ando Director Healthcare and Pharma IHS gustav.ando@ihs.com2 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  3. 3. Introduction Key industry drivers, identified by the healthcare practice team at IHS, covering pharmaceutical developments across the world and stretching across R&D, P&R, M&A and more Contributors: Milena Izmirlieva, Robert McTiernan, Kavita Rainova, Anne-Charlotte Honore, Sophia Walker, Chiara Stella Cochetti, Jing Zhang, Cameron Lockwood, Gaelle Marinoni, Floriane Reinaud3 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  4. 4. 1. The foundations for economic recovery are in place  Spend will be up in the United States and emerging markets, but remain stunted in critical European markets due to austerity and cost containment  Volume-based generics will continue their upward trend – this is also true, though to a lesser extent, for biosimilars  Underlying demographics continue to be favorable and outweigh general clampdown on demand3 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  5. 5. 2. The United States will experience “Gap Year Syndrome”  The focus will be on implementing Medicaid expansion – amid continued political resistance  The market will see significant increases in pharmaceutical prices  Health spend will grow modestly next year at rate of 5% before rising above 6% in 2014 – our assumptions are based on a more gradualistic impact of Medicaid expansion than for example CMS4 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  6. 6. 3. Europe/Eurozone instability will continue to suppress public health expenditure  Greece and Italy will experience negative and lower growth (respectively), with Italy implementing its spending review  Health spend will grow significantly in France with newly implemented price cuts, prescription controls, and a focus on home care  Market expansion will be driven by international reference pricing–particularly in Eastern Europe–but also markets like Belgium, whilst markets like Sweden and Norway are implementing new reforms5 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  7. 7. 4. Political changes in Germany and Italy will change the healthcare landscape  In Germany, federal elections in September/October can create considerable risk of an impasse  Germany will feel the full (negative) impact of AMNOG this year – this has already resulted in several product withdrawals but there is more to come…  In Italy, the technocratic Monti government is already in turmoil following the withdrawal of support from Berlusconi’s party and there are potentially wild card parties that could assume greater control and have a further destabilising effect on the market6 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  8. 8. 5. The patent cliff will stabilize, but headwinds still felt  Second year of the patent cliff but a drop-off from the peak of 2012–and most of those off-patent drugs (Plavix, Lipitor etc) were quickly commoditised. Expect to feel slight tremors from the expiration of Tricor (fenofibrate), Xeloda (capecitabine) Zometa (zoledronic acid), Lidoderm (lidocaine) Temodar (temozolimide), Niaspan (niacin ER) and Aciphex (rabeprazole)  The year comes to a startling close with patent expiration for USD3.5 billion depression drug Cymbalta (duloxetine) in December 20137 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  9. 9. 6. China, Brazil, and Russia lead the way in healthy growth  China’s growth should still hit double-digits next year with expanded coverage and the government’s stimulus measures–this is a crucial year in the context of the country’s 2009-2020 reform plan  Brazil’s fiscal stimulus should spark growth during the second half of the year. Real GDP is projected to hit 3.6% with a corresponding jump in health spend expected  Russia is preparing a new centralized drug procurement system that shows clear preferences for domestic and generic drugs8 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  10. 10. 7. India will continue to lag, despite best efforts  Healthcare reform remains several years behind other emerging markets  Heath spend growth will lose steam in the medium term and the government is setting an entirely new Pricing & Reimbursement system to accompany the healthcare insurance/infrastructure expansion.9 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  11. 11. 8. Latin America will see increased harmonization  With the implementation of a new regional drug pricing database for 12 markets, the Latin American market is gearing towards increased visibility on regional pharma pricing and harmonisation of processes–although the final launch is expected in 2014  Colombia is launching its new reference pricing system which will target patented and generic drugs, whilst Mexico is implementing its biosimilars regulation in 201310 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  12. 12. 9. New “game-changing” technology developments will drive future growth  Celgene’s pomalidomide is a key potential catalyst with a PDUFA date in February 2013, which is also the month for FDA action on Roche’s next-generation Herceptin candidate T-DM1  Biogen’s BG-12, the hotly anticipated multiple sclerosis drug , has a PDUFA date of March 2013  Another critical candidate to watch out for is Ophthotec’s PDGF/VEGF inhibitor, which looks set to again transform the AMD market11 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  13. 13. 10. Biosimilars will spring into action  The FDA has approved biosimilar Neupogen, with Teva positioned to launch its version in November 2013  The FDA is ramping up its user fee base and funding in order to accommodate what is expected to be a significant increase in workload related to biosimilars in 201312 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  14. 14. Want to get more insight into drug pricing?Dynamic Pharmaceutical Pricing 2012: What’s Really Behind Drug Prices?This study provides a clear and comprehensive overview of drug price changes within and acrossmarkets. Leveraging our proprietary POLI pricing database, we analyse how and why ex-manufacturing prices have changed over time, as well as how pricing differs by therapeutic area andcountry, strengthening go-to-market and life-cycle management strategies. Key questions answered: •How have drug prices evolved in recent years? •What are the major drivers behind pharmaceutical price changes? •How does healthcare reform, such as that seen in the United States and Germany, affect prices? •What is the real impact of the global economic downturn on pharmaceutical prices? •How does reference pricing, both international and therapeutic, impact drug prices? •How has the much-vaunted patent cliff affected pricing dynamics? •How will ongoing policy developments influence pharmaceutical price changes in future? Download the sample reports and learn more13 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  15. 15. IHS Healthcare Multi-Client Studies 2011-2012• Dynamic Pricing 2012: What’s Really Behind Drug Price Changes• The New REAlity of Relative Effectiveness• Payer-Industry Partnerships in Emerging Markets• Payer-Industry Partnerships: Best Practice for Successful Market Access of New Pharmaceuticals• Optimising Market Access Strategies Under AMNOG• Optimising Strategies for Pharmaceutical Launch Sequencing• Optimising Medical Device & Diagnostic Launches in Developed Markets• A Survey of the European Hospital Drug Market• European PharmacoVigilance Reform: Implications for Market Access13 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  16. 16. Visit the IHS Healthcare and Pharma blogGet weekly insights on global healthcare policy, market access, pricing and reimbursement, and R&D www.ihs.com/healthcareblog14 I Global Healthcare and Pharma: Our Top Ten Industry Drivers for 2013 I Copyright © 2012 IHS
  17. 17. Gustav Ando Director Healthcare and Pharma IHS gustav.ando@ihs.comCopyright © 2011 IHS

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