A presentation at the Australian Association of Gerontology in 2012. This is about the application of spatial science to the problems associated with the disconnects between health and social care services. It also addresses how we might link demographic change and age-related health concerns through spatial science applications.

1. Forecasting Residential Aged
Care Demand in Australia:
A Geographic Information Systems Analysis
Authors
Hamish Robertson and Nick Nicholas

2. Contents
• Introduction
• Current and projected ageing
• Dementia prevalence
• Health and social support infrastructure
• Results
• Discussion
• Conclusion
• Online access

3. Tobler’s First Law
"Everything is related to everything else,
but near things are more related than
distant things.”
Tobler W., (1970) "A computer movie simulating urban
growth in the Detroit region” Economic Geography, 46(2): 234-240.

4. Ageing and Service Development

5. Current and Projected Ageing
• 2006 and 2011 Censuses
• ABS projections 2007-2027 – further updates
to come
• Population distribution and change
• Sea change and tree change effects
• Epidemiological shifts and changes
• Growth in knowledge about prevalence and
incidence

6. Dementia Estimated Prevalence
Source: AIHW 2012

7. Health and Social Service Infrastructure
• Residential aged care facilities – Australia-wide
geocoded and mapped (June 2011 listing)
• Hospitals – Australia-wide
• ACAT teams - NSW
• Alzheimer's Australia offices by state - doing
• Meals on Wheels for NSW - geocoded
• Others to do – GPs, pharmacies (more than 2,000
in NSW) and other HACC-type services
• Emergency services – SES, police, ambulances
• Could include disability and other age and chronic
disease service providers – extensible database

8. Hospitals

9. RACFs 2011

10. Meals on Wheels NSW

11. Ambulance Stations NSW

12. RACFs in Sydney Metro

13. Services Within a 5 km or Less Radius

14. Aged 65+ Less Than 5 km of RACFs

15. Demand and Supply 2011

16. Projected Growth in Dementia 2011-2027

17. Projected Demand Pattern in 2027

18. Outcomes
• Population ageing and projections mapped for
whole of Australia
• Epidemiological estimates (current and future)
mapped for Australia
• Key infrastructure mapped – some for whole of
Australia, some for NSW at this stage
• Linked population change, projected epidemiology
and infrastructure in a meaningful way
• Trialling approaches to (a) analysis and (b)
visualisation of results
• Posting results and resources gradually

19. Discussion
• Current and future scenarios can be modelled quickly
using spatial methods
• Scale and time can be dealt with in the same system
• Outputs can be visualised as pictures (maps) or as
virtual 3D environments (Google Earth)
• The current silo effects in health and social care can be
eliminated using this technology
• Industry-specific scenarios can also be developed or an
“overall” picture
• Scenarios can be re-run using potential site locations
and likely impacts estimated i.e. ‘what-if’ scenario
modelling

20. Conclusion
• GIS and related technologies are a valuable and useful
tool for managing current and future scenario
modelling
• Changes in policy, funding and infrastructure can be
rapidly added to the model
• Online access improves the accessibility of base
information and analysis
• Spatial techniques support public engagement in aged
care policy and provision e.g. quality postings
• Spatial literacy will become essential in health and
social care as this field is developing rapidly

21. Developmental work and resources available at:
www.neura.edu.au/projects/GlobalAD