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data about tech and data trends

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very good data for presentations from mooc bigdata seminar

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data about tech and data trends

  1. 1. BIG DATA APPLICATIONS & ANALYTICS MOTIVATION: BIG DATA AND THE CLOUD; CENTERPIECES OF THE FUTURE ECONOMY 11/26/2014Course Motivation 1 Geoffrey Fox November 25 2014 gcf@indiana.edu http://www.infomall.org School of Informatics and Computing Digital Science Center Indiana University Bloomington
  2. 2. Course Motivation General Remarks including Hype curves INTRODUCTION 11/26/20142
  3. 3. • There is an endlessly growing amount of data as we record every transaction between people and the environment (whether shopping or on a social networking site) while smart phones, smart homes, ubiquitous cities, smart power grids, and intelligent vehicles deploy sensors recording even more. • Science with satellites and accelerators is giving data on transactions of particles and photons at the microscopic scale. • This data are and will be stored in immense clouds with co- located storage and computing that perform "analytics" that transform data into information and then to wisdom and decisions; data mining finds the proverbial knowledge diamonds in the data rough. • This disruptive transformation is driving the economy and creating millions of jobs in the emerging area of "data science". • We discuss this revolution and its implications for universities and society ABSTRACT 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 3
  4. 4. The Data Deluge is clear trend from Commercial (Amazon, e-commerce) , Community (Facebook, Search) and Scientific applications Smaller (INTEL/ARM/AMD) chips drive Multicore (i.e. more computing) on shared servers Smaller Light weight clients from smartphones, tablets to sensors (i.e. more clients) Clouds with cheaper, greener, easier to use IT for applications New jobs associated with new curricula Clouds as a distributed system (changing a classic CS course) Data Science (new area) SOME TRENDS 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 4
  5. 5. 48 technologies are listed in this year’s hype cycle which is the highest in last ten years. Year 2008 was the lowest (27) Gartner Says in 2012: We are at an interesting moment — a time when the scenarios we’ve been talking about for a long time are almost becoming reality. 11/26/20145 Course Motivation
  6. 6. 11/26/20146 Course Motivation Private Cloud Computing is off the chart http://public.brighttalk.com/resource/core/19507/august_21_hype_cycle_fenn_lehong_29685.pdf
  7. 7. 11/26/20147 GARTNER EMERGING TECHNOLOGY HYPE CYCLE 2014 Course Motivation
  8. 8. 11/26/20148 Course Motivation http://public.brighttalk.com/resource/core/19507/august_21_hype_cycle_fenn_lehong_29685.pdf 2013
  9. 9. 11/26/20149 Course Motivation 2013 http://public.brighttalk.com/resource/core/19507/august_21_hype_cycle_fenn_lehong_29685.pdf
  10. 10. 11/26/201410 Course Motivation Note number of “analytics” areas http://public.brighttalk.com/resource/core/19507/august_21_hype_cycle_fenn_lehong_29685.pdf
  11. 11. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends11/26/201411 Course Motivation
  12. 12. • Economic Imperative: There are a lot of data and a lot of jobs • Computing Model: Industry adopted clouds which are attractive for data analytics • Research Model: 4th Paradigm; From Theory to Data driven science? • Research/Business opportunities in advancing computing technologies and algorithms • Research/Business opportunities in X-Informatics: applying 4th paradigm (more here!) • Development in Data Science Education: opportunities at universities ISSUES OF IMPORTANCE 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 12
  13. 13. Course Motivation DATA DELUGE 11/26/201413
  14. 14. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends My Research focus is Science Big Data but note Note largest science ~100 petabytes = 0.000025 total Note 7 ZB (7. 1021) is about a terabyte (1012) for each person in world Zettabyte ~1010 Typical Local Storage (100 Gigabytes) Zettabyte = 1000 Exabytes Exabyte = 1000 Petabytes Petabyte = 1000 Terabyte Terabyte = 1000 Gigabytes Gigabyte = 1000 Megabytes 11/26/201414 Course Motivation
  15. 15. 11/26/201415 Course Motivation
  16. 16. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends 11/26/201416 Course Motivation
  17. 17. 11/26/201417 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference 20 hours https://www.youtube.com/yt/press/statistics.html
  18. 18. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends 11/26/201418 Course Motivation
  19. 19. http://cs.metrostate.edu/~sbd/ Oracle11/26/201419 Course Motivation
  20. 20. 11/26/201420 Course Motivation
  21. 21. • Web Data (“the original big data”) • Analyze customer web browsing of e-commerce site to see topics looked at etc. • Auto Insurance (telematics monitoring driving) • Equip cars with sensors • Text data in multiple industries • Sentiment analysis, identify common issues (as in eBay lamp example), Natural Language processing • Time and location (GPS) data • Track trucks (delivery), vehicles(track), people(tell them nearby goodies) • Retail and manufacturing: RFID • Asset and inventory management, • Utility industry: Smart Grid • Sensors allow dynamic optimization of power • Gaming industry: Casino Chip tracking (RFID) • Track individual players, detect fraud, identify patterns • Industrial engines and equipment: sensor data • See GE engine • Video games: telemetry • This is like monitoring web browsing but rather monitor actions in a game • Telecommunication and other industries: Social Network data • Connections make this big data. • Use connections to find new customers with similar interests “TAMING THE BIG DATA TIDAL WAVE” 2012 (BILL FRANKS, CHIEF ANALYTICS OFFICER TERADATA) 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 21
  22. 22. Ruh VP Software GE http://fisheritcenter.haas.berkeley.edu/Big_Data/index.html 11/26/201422 Course Motivation
  23. 23. Ruh VP Software GE http://fisheritcenter.haas.berkeley.edu/Big_Data/index.html MM = Million 11/26/201423 Course Motivation
  24. 24. • LHC Particle Physics 15 petabytes per year • Radiology 69 petabytes per year • Square Kilometer Array Telescope will be 0.5 zettabytes per year raw data in ~2022 • Earth Observation becoming ~4 petabytes per year • Earthquake Science – few terabytes total today • PolarGrid Radar studies of glaciers– 100’s terabytes/year • Exascale simulation data dumps – ~0.1 zettabyte per year SOME SCIENCE/TECHNICAL DATA SIZES 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 24
  25. 25. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/ Need cost effective Computing! Sequence every newborn by 2019 gives 100 petabytes/year 11/26/201425 Course Motivation
  26. 26. The Long Tail of Science 80-20 rule: 20% users generate 80% data but not necessarily 80% knowledge Collectively “long tail” science is generating a lot of data Estimated at over 1PB per year and it is growing fast. CSTI Meeting. October 2012 Dennis Gannon 11/26/201426 Course Motivation
  27. 27. • Particle Physics LHC (bag of events of particles) • Information Retrieval or web search (bag of words) • e-commerce (bag of items with properties or users with rankings) • Social Networking (bag of people with links & properties) • Health Informatics (bag of health records, gene sequences) • Sensors – web cams, self driving cars etc. (bag of pixels) • Using • Statistics (Histograms, Chisq) • Deep Learning (Machine Learning) • Image Analysis (including internet uploaded images) • Recommender Engines (Bag of Ratings or properties) • Patterns or Anomaly detection in graphs (linked data) • On Clouds using MapReduce etc. DATA INTENSIVE ACTIVITIES Bag= Space 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 27
  28. 28. • Use Clouds running Data Analytics Collaboratively processing Big Data to solve problems in X-Informatics ( or e-X) • X = Astronomy, Biology, Biomedicine, Business, Chemistry, Climate, Crisis, Earth Science, Energy, Environment, Finance, Health, Intelligence, Lifestyle, Marketing, Medicine, Pathology, Policy, Radar, Security, Sensor, Social, Sustainability, Wealth and Wellness with more fields (physics) defined implicitly • Spans Industry and Science (research) • Education: Data Science see recent New York Times articles • http://datascience101.wordpress.com/2013/04/13/new- york-times-data-science-articles/ BIG DATA ECOSYSTEM IN ONE SENTENCE 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 28
  29. 29. Social Informatics Visual&Decision Informatics 11/26/201429 Course Motivation
  30. 30. Course Motivation Data Science, Clouds and Computer Science JOBS 11/26/201430
  31. 31. JOBS V. COUNTRIES 11/26/201431 Course Motivation http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/features/2012/mar12/03- 05CloudComputingJobs.aspx
  32. 32. • There will be a shortage of talent necessary for organizations to take advantage of big data. By 2018, the United States alone could face a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as well as 1.5 million managers and analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data to make effective decisions. • Informatics aimed at 1.5 million jobs. Computer Science covers the 140,000 to 190,000 MCKINSEY INSTITUTE ON BIG DATA JOBS Course Motivation 3211/26/2014 http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/ big_data/index.asp.
  33. 33. Tom Davenport Harvard Business School http://fisheritcenter.haas.berkeley.edu/Big_Data/index.html Nov 2012 11/26/201433 Course Motivation
  34. 34. 11/26/201434 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  35. 35. 11/26/201435 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  36. 36. Course Motivation Many Technology trends INDUSTRY TRENDS 11/26/201436
  37. 37. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends Note that translates NOW into smaller devices In PAST translated into faster devices of same form factor 11/26/201437 Course Motivation
  38. 38. 11/26/201438 Course Motivation http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends
  39. 39. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends 11/26/201439 Course Motivation
  40. 40. 11/26/201440 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  41. 41. 11/26/201441 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  42. 42. 11/26/201442 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  43. 43. 11/26/201443 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  44. 44. 11/26/201444 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  45. 45. 11/26/201445 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  46. 46. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends 11/26/201446 Course Motivation
  47. 47. http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends11/26/201447 Course Motivation
  48. 48. 11/26/201448 Course Motivation
  49. 49. 11/26/201449 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  50. 50. 11/26/201450 Course Motivation
  51. 51. 11/26/201451 Course Motivation
  52. 52. Course Motivation Displaced by Digital Disruption THE PAST? 11/26/201452
  53. 53. 11/26/201453 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  54. 54. 11/26/201454 Course Motivation http://sephlawless.com/black-friday-2014 No more malls?
  55. 55. 11/26/201455 Course Motivation No more malls?
  56. 56. WHERE ARE SHOPPERS GOING? 11/26/201456 Course Motivation
  57. 57. 11/26/201457 Course Motivation We Are Here 2014-2015
  58. 58. 11/26/201458 E-COMMERCE IS DRIVING NEARLY ALL RETAIL GROWTH IN US Course Motivation
  59. 59. 11/26/201459 1 IN 20 RETAIL DOLLARS ARE ALREADY ONLINE Course Motivation
  60. 60. Even online groceries taking off 11/26/201460 Course Motivation
  61. 61. Course Motivation Industry adopted clouds which are attractive for data analytics COMPUTING MODEL 11/26/201461
  62. 62. For last 5 years Cloud Computing and last 2 years Big Data Transformational Note in 2013 Big Data moves to 5-10 year slot 11/26/201462 Course Motivation
  63. 63. • It took Amazon Web Services (AWS) eight years to hit $650 million in revenue, according to Citigroup in 2010. • Just three years later, Macquarie Capital analyst Ben Schachter estimates that AWS will top $3.8 billion in 2013 revenue, up from $2.1 billion in 2012 (estimated), valuing the AWS business at $19 billion. • First public cloud computing supplier building on many cloud systems used to run Amazon, Google, Bing, eBay …. AMAZON CLOUD AWS MAKING MONEY 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 63
  64. 64. • A bunch of computers in an efficient data center with an excellent Internet connection • They were produced to meet need of public- facing Web 2.0 e-Commerce/Social Networking sites • They can be considered as “optimal giant data center” plus internet connection • Note enterprises use private clouds that are giant data centers but not optimized for Internet access OPERATIONALLY CLOUDS ARE CLEAR 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 64
  65. 65. THE MICROSOFT CLOUD IS BUILT ON DATA CENTERS 11/26/201465 Course Motivation Quincy, WA Chicago, IL San Antonio, TX Dublin, Ireland Generation 4 DCs Range in size from “edge” facilities to megascale (100K to 1M servers). Giant data centers with ~ 200-1000 to a shipping container with Internet access. ~100 Globally Distributed Data Centers CSTI Meeting. October 2012 Dennis Gannon
  66. 66. DATA CENTERS CLOUDS & ECONOMIES OF SCALE 11/26/201466 Range in size from “edge” facilities to megascale. Economies of scale: Approximate costs for a small size center (1K servers) and a larger, 50K server center. Course Motivation Each data center is 11.5 times the size of a football field Technology Cost in small- sized Data Center Cost in Large Data Center Ratio Network $95 per Mbps/ month $13 per Mbps/ month 7.1 Storage $2.20 per GB/ month $0.40 per GB/ month 5.7 Administration ~140 servers/ Administrator >1000 Servers/ Administrator 7.1 http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/people/barga/sc09_cloudcomp_tutorial.pdf 2 Google warehouses of computers on the banks of the Columbia River, in The Dalles, Oregon Such centers use 20MW-200MW (Future) each with 150 watts per CPU Save money from large size, positioning with cheap power and access with Internet
  67. 67. • Virtualization = abstraction; run a job – you know not where • Virtualization = use hypervisor to support “images” • Allows you to define complete job as an “image” – OS + application • Efficient packing of multiple applications into one server as they don’t interfere (much) with each other if in different virtual machines; • They interfere if put as two jobs in same machine as for example must have same OS and same OS services • Also security model between VM’s more robust than between processes VIRTUALIZATION MADE SEVERAL THINGS MORE CONVENIENT 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 67
  68. 68. • http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/78813/AJ18_E N.pdf • Typical data center CPU has 9.75% utilization • Take 5000 SQL servers and rehost on virtual machines with 6:1 consolidation MICROSOFT SERVER CONSOLIDATION 60% saving 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 68
  69. 69. • http://www.google.com/green/pdfs/google- green-computing.pdf • Clouds win by efficient resource use and efficient data centers THE GOOGLE GMAIL EXAMPLE Business Type Number of users # servers IT Power per user PUE (Power Usage effectivene ss) Total Power per user Annual Energy per user Small 50 2 8W 2.5 20W 175 kWh Medium 500 2 1.8W 1.8 3.2W 28.4 kWh Large 10000 12 0.54W 1.6 0.9W 7.6 kWh Gmail (Cloud)   < 0.22W 1.16 < 0.25W < 2.2 kWh 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 69
  70. 70. • Features from NIST: • On-demand service (elastic); • Broad network access; • Resource pooling; • Flexible resource allocation; • Measured service • Economies of scale in performance and electrical power (Green IT) • Powerful new software models • Platform as a Service is not an alternative to Infrastructure as a Service – it is instead an incredible valued added • Amazon is as much PaaS as Azure • They are cheaper than classic clusters unless latter 100% utilized CLOUDS OFFER FROM DIFFERENT POINTS OF VIEW 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 70
  71. 71. BPM = Business Process management IaaS Hardware e.g. Server PaaS Systems Services e.g. MapReduce, Database SaaS Applications e.g. Recommender System BPaaS Particular Application Set 11/26/201471 Course Motivation
  72. 72. 11/26/201472 Course Motivation http://www.gartner.com/technology/reprints.do? id=1-1UKQQA6&ct=140528&st=sb Gartner Magic Quadrant for Cloud Infrastructure as a Service AWS in lead followed by Azure
  73. 73. Course Motivation 4th Paradigm; From Theory to Data driven science? RESEARCH MODEL 11/26/201473
  74. 74. http://www.wired.com/wired/issue/16-07 September 2008 11/26/201474 Course Motivation
  75. 75. 1. Theory 2. Experiment or Observation • E.g. Newton observed apples falling to design his theory of mechanics 3. Simulation of theory or model Supercomputers 4. Data-driven (Big Data) or The Fourth Paradigm: Data-Intensive Scientific Discovery (aka Data Science) • http://research.microsoft.com/en- us/collaboration/fourthparadigm/ A free book • More data; less models THE 4 PARADIGMS OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 75
  76. 76. MORE DATA USUALLY BEATS BETTER ALGORITHMS Course Motivation 7611/26/2014 • Here's how the competition works. Netflix has provided a large data set that tells you how nearly half a million people have rated about 18,000 movies. Based on these ratings, you are asked to predict the ratings of these users for movies in the set that they have not rated. The first team to beat the accuracy of Netflix's proprietary algorithm by a certain margin wins a prize of $1 million! • Different student teams in my class adopted different approaches to the problem, using both published algorithms and novel ideas. Of these, the results from two of the teams illustrate a broader point. Team A came up with a very sophisticated algorithm using the Netflix data. Team B used a very simple algorithm, but they added in additional data beyond the Netflix set: information about movie genres from the Internet Movie Database(IMDB). Guess which team did better? • Anand Rajaraman is Senior Vice President at Walmart Global eCommerce, where he heads up the newly created @WalmartLabs, • http://anand.typepad.com/datawocky/2008/03/more-data-usual.html • 20120117berkeley1.pdf Jeff Hammerbacher
  77. 77. Course Motivation DIKW Data Information Knowledge Wisdom Decisions DATA SCIENCE PROCESS 11/26/201477
  78. 78. • Data becomes • Information becomes • Knowledge becomes • Wisdom or Decisions • Community acceptance of results or approach important here • Volume of bits&bytes decreases as we proceed down DIKW pipeline DIKW PROCESS 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 78
  79. 79. 79 Course Motivation Database SS SS SS SS SS SS SS: Sensor or Data Interchange Service Workflow through multiple filter/discovery clouds Another Cloud Raw Data  Data  Information  Knowledge  Wisdom  Decisions SSSS Another Service SS Another Grid SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS Storage Cloud Compute Cloud SS SSSS SS Filter Cloud Filter Cloud Filter Cloud Discovery Cloud Discovery Cloud Filter Cloud Filter Cloud Filter Cloud SS Filter Cloud Filter Cloud Filter Cloud Filter Cloud Distributed Grid Hadoop Cluster SS Data Deluge is also Information/Knowledge/Wisdom/Decision Deluge? 11/26/2014
  80. 80. • Data comes from traditional maps (US Geological Survey), Satellites (overlays) and street cams • Information is presented by basic Google Maps web page • Knowledge is a particular optimized route • Decisions (Wisdom) comes from deciding to drive a particular route EXAMPLE OF GOOGLE MAPS/NAVIGATION 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 80
  81. 81. Course Motivation Application Example PHYSICS-INFORMATICS LOOKING FOR HIGGS PARTICLE WITH LARGE HADRON COLLIDER LHC 11/26/201481
  82. 82. 11/26/201482 Course Motivation The LHC produces some 15 petabytes of data per year of all varieties and with the exact value depending on duty factor of accelerator (which is reduced simply to cut electricity cost but also due to malfunction of one or more of the many complex systems) and experiments. The raw data produced by experiments is processed on the LHC Computing Grid, which has some 200,000 Cores arranged in a three level structure. Tier-0 is CERN itself, Tier 1 are national facilities and Tier 2 are regional systems. For example one LHC experiment (CMS) has 7 Tier-1 and 50 Tier-2 facilities. This analysis raw data  reconstructed data  AOD and TAGS  Physics is performed on the multi-tier LHC Computing Grid. Note that every event can be analyzed independently so that many events can be processed in parallel with some concentration operations such as those to gather entries in a histogram. This implies that both Grid and Cloud solutions work with this type of data with currently Grids being the only implementation today. Higgs Event http://grids.ucs.indiana.edu/ptliupages/publications/Where%20does%20all%20the%20data%20come%20from%20v7.pdf Note LHC lies in a tunnel 27 kilometres (17 mi) in circumference ATLAS Expt
  83. 83. http://www.interactions.org/cms/?pid=1032811 The inside of the RHIC (Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider) tunnel, a 2.4-mile high-tech particle racetrack at Brookhaven National Laboratory. 11/26/201483 Course Motivation
  84. 84. Model http://www.quantumdiaries.org/2012/09/07/why-particle-detectors-need-a-trigger/atlasmgg/ 11/26/201484 Course Motivation
  85. 85. • As a naïve undergraduate in 1964, I was told by Professor who later left university to enter church that bumps like were particles. I was amazed and found this more intriguing than anything else I had heard about so I decided to do PhD in particle physics. • I later decided computing moving faster than physics, so I went into Informatics • Also I was alarmed by size and time scale of physics activities • Note ATLAS is 45 metres long, 25 metres in diameter, and weighs about 7,000 tons. The experiment is a collaboration involving roughly 3,000 physicists at 175 institutions in 38 countries • US version of LHC, Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) discussed in 1983 was cancelled in 1993 after $2B spent PERSONAL NOTE 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 85
  86. 86. http://www.sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S 037026931200857X 11/26/201486 Course Motivation
  87. 87. Course Motivation Technology Example RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS I 11/26/201487
  88. 88. • In many cases, one needs personalized matching of items to people or perhaps collections of items to collections of people • People to products: Online and Offline Commerce • People to People: Social Networking • People to Jobs or Employers: Job Sites • People+Queries to the Web: Information Retrieval (search as in Bing/Google) OVERVIEW OF MANY INFORMATICS AREAS 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 88
  89. 89. • A large number of online and offline commerce activities plus basic Internet site personalization relies on “recommender systems” • Given real-time action by user, immediately suggest new actions (as in Amazon buy recommendations on web) • Based on past actions of users (and others) suggest movies to look at, restaurants to eat at, events to go to, books and music to buy • Based on mix of explicit user choice and grouping of internet sites, present customized Google News page • Given sales statistics, decide on discounts at “real” supermarkets and placement of related (by analysis of buying habits) products • Identify possible colleagues at Social Networking sites like LinkedIn • Identify matches between employers and employees at sites like CareerBuilder and Monster RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS IN MORE DETAIL 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 89
  90. 90. • Fit Model to Data • Higgs + Background • Match User to Jobs or Books or Other Users? • Classification is optimizing assignment of members of an ontology (list of categories) to data • Typically minimize some function (or maximize negative of function) • Interesting feature of these problems is ingenious choice of function • Note Physics minimizes (free) energy • Often involves thinking of people and/or items as points in a space (not always a traditional vector space) • Space called “bag” in “bag of words” model for information retrieval EVERYTHING IS AN OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM? 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 90
  91. 91. NETFLIX ON PERSONALIZATION 11/26/201491 Course Motivation http://www.slideshare.net/xamat/building-largescale- realworld-recommender-systems-recsys2012-tutorial
  92. 92. NETFLIX ON RECOMMENDATIONS 11/26/201492 Course Motivation http://www.slideshare.net/xamat/building-largescale- realworld-recommender-systems-recsys2012-tutorial
  93. 93. APRIL 2013: THE LAST TWO QUARTERS HAVE EACH BROUGHT MORE THAN 2 MILLION NEW STREAMING SUBSCRIBER SIGNUPS. THAT GIVES NETFLIX A CURRENT TOTAL OF NEARLY 29.2 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS 11/26/201493 Course Motivation http://www.slideshare.net/xamat/building-largescale-realworld-recommender- systems-recsys2012-tutorial
  94. 94. http://www.ifi.uzh.ch/ce/teaching/spring2 012/16-Recommender-Systems_Slides.pdf 11/26/201494 Course Motivation
  95. 95. NETFLIX ON DATA SCIENCE 11/26/201495 Course Motivation Note Netflix and others run tests all the time on subsets of customers http://www.slideshare.net/xamat/building-largescale-realworld-recommender- systems-recsys2012-tutorial
  96. 96. Course Motivation Use of Data bags and spaces RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS II 11/26/201496
  97. 97. • In user-based collaborative filtering, we can think of users in a space of dimension N where there are N items and M users. • Let i run over items and u over users • Then each user is represented as a vector Ui(u) in “item- space” where ratings are vector components. We are looking for users u u’ that are near each other in this space as measured by some distance between Ui(u) and Ui(u’) • If u and u’ rate all items then these are “real” vectors but almost always they each only rates a small fraction of items and the number in common is even smaller • The “Pearson coefficient” is just one distance measure that can be used • Only sum over i rated by u and u’ DISTANCES IN FUNNY SPACES I Last.fm uses this for songs as does Amazon, Netflix11/26/2014 Course Motivation 97
  98. 98. • In item-based collaborative filtering, we can think of items in a space of dimension M where there are N items and M users. • Let i run over items and u over users • Then each item is represented as a vector Ru(i) in “user- space” where ratings are vector components. We are looking for items i i’ that are near each other in this space as measured by some distance between Ru(i) and Ru(i’) • If i and i’ rated by all users then these are “real” vectors but almost always they are each only rated by a small fraction of users and the number in common is even smaller • The “Cosine measure” is just one distance measure that can be used • Only sum over users u rating both i and i’ DISTANCES IN FUNNY SPACES II 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 98
  99. 99. • In content based recommender systems, we can think of items in a space of dimension M where there are N items and M properties. • Let i run over items and p over properties • Then each item is represented as a vector Pp(i) in “property-space” where values of properties are vector components. We are looking for items i i’ that are near each other in this space as measured by some distance between Pp(i) and Rp(i’) • Properties could be “reading age” or “character highlighted” or “author” for books • Properties can be genre or artist for songs and video • Properties can characterize pixel structure for images used in face recognition, driving etc. DISTANCES IN FUNNY SPACES III Pandora uses this for songs (Music Genome) as does Amazon, Netflix 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 99
  100. 100. • Much of (eCommerce/LifeStyle) Informatics involves “points” • Events in LHC analysis • Users (people) or items (books, jobs, music, other people) • These points can be thought of being in a “space” or “bag” • Set of all books • Set of all physics reactions • Set of all Internet users • However as in recommender systems where a given user only rates some items, we don’t know “full position” • However we can nearly always define a useful distance d(a,b) between points • Always d(a,b) >= 0 • Usually d(a,b) = d(b,a) • Rarely d(a,b) + d(b,c) >= d(a,c) Triangle Inequality DO WE NEED “REAL” SPACES? 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 100
  101. 101. • The simplest way to use distances is “nearest neighbor algorithms” – given one point, find a set of points near it – cut off by number of identified nearby points and/or distance to initial point • Here point is either user or item • Another approach is divide space into regions (topics, latent factors) consisting of nearby points • This is clustering • Also other algorithms like Gaussian mixture models or Latent Semantic Analysis or Latent Dirichlet Allocation which use a more sophisticated model USING DISTANCES 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 101
  102. 102. Course Motivation Another Example WEB SEARCH INFORMATION RETRIEVAL 11/26/2014102
  103. 103. • Get the digital data (from web or from scanning) • Need to crawl web (? Solved “engineering” problem) • Preprocess data to get searchable things (words positions) • Form Inverted Index mapping words to documents • Typically use TF-IDF (term frequency, Inverse Document frequency) to quantify importance of word match • Rank relevance of documents: PageRank • Lots of technology for advertising, “reverse engineering” “preventing reverse engineering” • Clustering of documents into topics (as in Google News) “WEB DATA ANALYTICS” 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 103
  104. 104. Size of face proportional to PageRank11/26/2014104 Course Motivation
  105. 105. • Goal (Function to Optimize – Long Term dollars) • Serve the right item to a user in a given context to optimize long-term business objectives • A scientific discipline that involves • Large scale Machine Learning & Statistics • Offline Models (capture global & stable characteristics) • Online Models (incorporates dynamic components) • Explore/Exploit (active and adaptive experimentation) • Multi-Objective Optimization • Click-rates (CTR), Engagement, advertising revenue, diversity, etc • Inferring user interest • Constructing User Profiles • Natural Language Processing to understand content • Topics, “aboutness”, entities, follow-up of something, breaking news,… MODERN RECOMMENDATION SYSTEMS (FROM YAHOO) http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~beechung/icml11-tutorial/11/26/2014 Course Motivation 105
  106. 106. 11/26/2014106 Course Motivation Recommend applications Recommend search queries Recommend news article Recommend packages: Image Title, summary Links to other pages Pick 4 out of a pool of K K = 20 ~ 40 Dynamic Routes traffic other pages http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~beechung/icml11-tutorial/
  107. 107. • Simple version • I have a content module on my page, content inventory is obtained from a third party source which is further refined through editorial oversight. Can I algorithmically recommend content on this module? I want to improve overall click-rate (CTR) on this module • More advanced • I got X% lift in CTR. But I have additional information on other downstream utilities (e.g. advertising revenue). Can I increase downstream utility without losing too many clicks? • Highly advanced • There are multiple modules running on my webpage. How do I perform a simultaneous optimization? SOME EXAMPLES FROM CONTENT OPTIMIZATION http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~beechung/icml11-tutorial/11/26/2014 Course Motivation 107
  108. 108. Course Motivation Science Clouds Internet of Things CLOUD APPLICATIONS IN RESEARCH 11/26/2014108
  109. 109. • Large Scale Supercomputers – Multicore nodes linked by high performance low latency network • Increasingly with GPU enhancement • Suitable for highly parallel simulations • High Throughput Systems such as European Grid Initiative EGI or Open Science Grid OSG typically aimed at pleasingly parallel jobs • Can use “cycle stealing” • Classic example is LHC data analysis • Grids federate resources as in EGI/OSG or enable convenient access to multiple backend systems including supercomputers • Use Services (SaaS) • Portals make access convenient and • Workflow integrates multiple processes into a single job SCIENCE COMPUTING ENVIRONMENTS 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 109
  110. 110. • Synchronization/communication Performance Grids > Clouds > Classic HPC Systems • Clouds naturally execute effectively Grid workloads but are less clear for closely coupled HPC applications • Classic HPC machines as MPI engines offer highest possible performance on closely coupled problems • The 4 forms of MapReduce/MPI 1) Map Only – pleasingly parallel 2) Classic MapReduce as in Hadoop; single Map followed by reduction with fault tolerant use of disk 3) Iterative MapReduce use for data mining such as Expectation Maximization in clustering etc.; Cache data in memory between iterations and support the large collective communication (Reduce, Scatter, Gather, Multicast) use in data mining 4) Classic MPI! Support small point to point messaging efficiently as used in partial differential equation solvers CLOUDS HPC AND GRIDS 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 110
  111. 111. • Pleasingly (moving to modestly) parallel applications of all sorts with roughly independent data or spawning independent simulations • Long tail of science and integration of distributed sensors • Commercial and Science Data analytics that can use MapReduce (some of such apps) or its iterative variants (most other data analytics apps) • Which science applications are using clouds? • Venus-C (Azure in Europe): 27 applications not using Scheduler, Workflow or MapReduce (except roll your own) • 50% of applications on FutureGrid were from Life Science • Locally Lilly corporation is commercial cloud user (for drug discovery) but not IU Biology • But overall very little science use of clouds yet WHAT APPLICATIONS WORK IN CLOUDS 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 111
  112. 112. • “Long tail of science” can be an important usage mode of clouds. • In some areas like particle physics and astronomy, i.e. “big science”, there are just a few major instruments generating now petascale data driving discovery in a coordinated fashion. • In other areas such as genomics and environmental science, there are many “individual” researchers with distributed collection and analysis of data whose total data and processing needs can match the size of big science. • Clouds can provide scaling convenient resources for this important aspect of science. • Can be map only use of MapReduce if different usages naturally linked e.g. exploring docking of multiple chemicals or alignment of multiple DNA sequences • Collecting together (summarizing) multiple “maps” is a Reduction PARALLELISM OVER USERS AND USAGES 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 112
  113. 113. • It is projected that there will be 24-75 billion devices on the Internet by 2020. Most will be small sensors that send streams of information into the cloud where it will be processed and integrated with other streams and turned into knowledge that will help our lives in a multitude of small and big ways. • The cloud will become increasing important as a controller of and resource provider for the Internet of Things. • As well as today’s use for smart phone and gaming console support, “Intelligent River” “smart homes and grid” and “ubiquitous cities” build on this vision and we could expect a growth in cloud supported/controlled robotics. • Some of these “things” will be supporting science • Natural parallelism over “things” • “Things” are distributed and so form a Grid INTERNET OF THINGS AND THE CLOUD 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 113
  114. 114. • We will look at several streaming examples later but most of the use cases involve this. Streaming can be seen in many ways • There are devices – The Internet of Things and various MEMS in smartphones • There are people tweeting or logging in to the cloud to search. These interactions are streaming • Apache Storm is critical software here to gather and integrate multiple erratic streams • Also important algorithm challenges to update quickly analyses with streamed data STREAMING CATEGORY http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 114
  115. 115. 11/26/2014115 HOME DEVICES Course Motivation
  116. 116. 11/26/2014116 SENSORS (THINGS) AS A SERVICE Course Motivation Sensors as a Service Sensor Processing as a Service (could use MapReduce) A larger sensor ……… Output Sensor https://sites.google.com/site/opensourceiotcloud/ Open Source Sensor (IoT) Cloud
  117. 117. 11/26/2014117 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  118. 118. 11/26/2014118 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  119. 119. 11/26/2014119 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  120. 120. Course Motivation Software Ecosystems PARALLEL COMPUTING AND MAPREDUCE 11/26/2014120
  121. 121. 11/26/2014121 Course Motivation http://www.slideshare.net/mjft01/big-data-landscape-matt-turck-may-2014
  122. 122. There are a lot of Big Data and HPC Software systems Challenge! Manage environment offering these different components 11/26/2014122 Course Motivation
  123. 123. • We don’t need 266 software packages so can choose e.g. • Workflow: IPython, Pegasus or Kepler (replaced by tools like Tez?) • Data Analytics: Mahout, R, ImageJ, Scalapack • High level Programming: Hive, Pig • Parallel Programming model: Hadoop, Spark, Giraph (Twister4Azure, Harp), MPI; Storm, Kapfka or RabbitMQ (Sensors) • In-memory: Memcached • Data Management: Hbase, MongoDB, MySQL or Derby • Distributed Coordination: Zookeeper • Cluster Management: Yarn, Slurm • File Systems: HDFS, Lustre • DevOps: Cloudmesh, Chef, Puppet, Docker, Cobbler • IaaS: Amazon, Azure, OpenStack, Libcloud • Monitoring: Inca, Ganglia, Nagios MAYBE A BIG DATA INITIATIVE WOULD INCLUDE 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 123
  124. 124. • HPC: Typically SPMD (Single Program Multiple Data) “maps” typically processing particles or mesh points interspersed with multitude of low latency messages supported by specialized networks such as Infiniband and technologies like MPI • Often run large capability jobs with 100K (going to 1.5M) cores on same job • National DoE/NSF/NASA facilities run 100% utilization • Fault fragile and cannot tolerate “outlier maps” taking longer than others • Clouds: MapReduce has asynchronous maps typically processing data points with results saved to disk. Final reduce phase integrates results from different maps • Fault tolerant and does not require map synchronization • Map only useful special case • HPC + Clouds: Iterative MapReduce caches results between “MapReduce” steps and supports SPMD parallel computing with large messages as seen in parallel kernels (linear algebra) in clustering and other data mining CLASSIC PARALLEL COMPUTING 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 124
  125. 125. MAPREDUCE “FILE/DATA REPOSITORY” PARALLELISM 11/26/2014125 Course Motivation Instruments Disks Map1 Map2 Map3 Reduce Communication Map = (data parallel) computation reading and writing data Reduce = Collective/Consolidation phase e.g. forming multiple global sums as in histogram Portals /Users Iterative MapReduce Map Map Map Map Reduce Reduce Reduce
  126. 126. SAM’S PROBLEM HTTP://WWW.SLIDESHARE.NET/ESALIYA/MAPREDUCE-IN-SIMPLE-TERMS 11/26/2014126 Course Motivation • Sam thought of “drinking” the apple  He used a to cut the and a to make juice.
  127. 127. CREATIVE SAM 11/26/2014127 Course Motivation (<a’, > , <o’, > , <p’, > ) • Implemented a parallel version of his innovation (<a, > , <o, > , <p, > , …) Each input to a map is a list of <key, value> pairs Each output of slice is a list of <key, value> pairs Grouped by key Each input to a reduce is a <key, value-list> (possibly a list of these, depending on the grouping/hashing mechanism) e.g. <ao, ( …)> Reduced into a list of values The idea of Map Reduce in Data Intensive Computing A list of <key, value> pairs mapped into another list of <key, value> pairs which gets grouped by the key and reduced into a list of values
  128. 128. Course Motivation Opportunities at Universities see New York Times articles http://datascience101.wordpress.com/2013/04/13/new-york-times-data-science- articles/ DATA SCIENCE EDUCATION 11/26/2014128
  129. 129. • Broad Range of Topics from Policy to curation to applications and algorithms, programming models, data systems, statistics, and broad range of CS subjects such as Clouds, Programming, HCI, • Plenty of Jobs and broader range of possibilities than computational science but similar cosmic issues • What type of degree (Certificate, minor, track, “real” degree) • What implementation (department, interdisciplinary group supporting education and research program) DATA SCIENCE EDUCATION 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 129
  130. 130. • Have set up certificate and Masters degree in data science • Joint between 3 units in School of Informatics and Computing: Computer Science, Informatics, Information & Library Science, and Statistics department in COAS College • Certificate online • Masters online or residential • Looking at version with Kelley with Business data analytics flavor • Attractive to offer online as few universities have this and so a potentially large audience outside IU AT INDIANA UNIVERSITY 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 130
  131. 131. 11/26/2014131 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  132. 132. 11/26/2014132 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  133. 133. • MOOC’s are very “hot” these days with Udacity and Coursera as start-ups; perhaps over 100,000 participants • Relevant to Data Science as this is a new field with few courses at most universities • Typical model is collection of short prerecorded segments (talking head over PowerPoint) of length 3-15 minutes • This is Boredom limit http://blog.coursera.org/post/49750392396/on- the-topic-of-boredom • These “lesson objects” can be viewed as “songs” • Google Course Builder (python open source) builds customizable MOOC’s as “playlists” of “songs” • Tells you to capture all material as “lesson objects” • We are aiming to build a repository of many “songs”; used in many ways – tutorials, classes … MASSIVE OPEN ONLINE COURSES (MOOC) 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 133
  134. 134. 11/26/2014134 Course Motivation http://x-informatics.appspot.com/course One of 2 Original IU SOIC MOOCs
  135. 135. 11/26/2014135 Seven ~10 minutes lesson objects in this lecture Started using closed caption but gave up Could be useful if in other languages Course Motivation
  136. 136. • We could teach one class to 100,000 students or 2,000 classes to 50 students • The 2,000 class choice has 2 useful features • One can use the usual (electronic) mentoring/grading technology • One can customize each of 2,000 classes for a particular audience given their level and interests • One can even allow student to customize – that’s what one does in making play lists in iTunes • Both models can be supported by a repository of lesson objects (10-15 minute video segments) in the cloud • The teacher can choose from existing lesson objects and add their own to produce a new customized course with new lessons contributed back to repository CUSTOMIZABLE MOOC’S I 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 136
  137. 137. 11/26/2014137 Course Motivation http://iucloudsummerschool.appspot.com/preview Unit ~1 hour with ~6 lessons, Total 115 lesson objects SCIENCE CLOUD MOOC REPOSITORY
  138. 138. • The 3-15 minute Video over PowerPoint of MOOC lesson object’s is easy to re-use • Qiu (IU)and Hayden (ECSU Elizabeth City State University – (a small HBCU Historically Black University) will customize a module • Starting with Qiu’s cloud computing course at IU • Adding material on use of Cloud Computing in Remote Sensing (area covered by ECSU course) • This is a model for adding cloud curricula material to wide set of universities where faculty not able to teach • Defining how to support computing labs associated with MOOC’s with clouds or VM’s on clients • Appliances scale as download to student’s client CUSTOMIZABLE MOOC’S II 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 138
  139. 139. 11/26/2014139 Course Motivation 139 Can of course build many different interfaces Songs stored on YouTube Songs prepared with Adobe Presenter on Laptop http://cloudmooc.soic.indiana.edu/
  140. 140. • High volume courses (CS/Ph/Chem/Bio101…) where scalability of MOOC’s make them attractive to reach a lot of students • Niche areas where there is some student interest but either no faculty expertise or not enough students to justify traditional courses • Offer to many institutions simultaneously TWO LIMITS WHERE MOOC’S ARE COMPELLING 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 140
  141. 141. • I proposed in 1999 (misjudging pace of online education): One can place faculty in their favorite location (e.g. remote cave) and universities provide structure to give “credentials” while faculty teach • Maybe some populate repository; others actually deliver courses • Note Google Course Builder or Microsoft Mix have no need for local resources except for faculty client (laptop) – entire course stored in the cloud • So we can radically change university system with a major cross institution virtual education and as well research component • Enabled by cloud plus high performance reliable networking • Lets set up community to define and build the virtual university MOOC repository and other needed activities HERMIT’S CAVE VIRTUAL UNIVERSITY 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 141
  142. 142. • We should aim at simplicity; attractive at moment is a mix of multi-topic forum plus more interactive Hangouts or equivalent (5-12 people) MENTORING / GRADING https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3jcSCA9_hM 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 142
  143. 143. 11/26/2014143 Course Motivation Meeker/Wu May 29 2013 Internet Trends D11 Conference
  144. 144. • Use clouds in faculty, graduate student and undergraduate research • Clouds for Scientific data analysis • Core cloud technologies (MapReduce, Virtualization) • Teach clouds as it involves areas of Information Technology with lots of job opportunities • Use clouds to support distributed learning and research environment • A cloud backend for course materials and collaboration as in MOOC repository • Green environmentally friendly computing infrastructure MANY SYNERGIES CLOUDS AND UNIVERSITIES 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 144
  145. 145. Course Motivation CONCLUSIONS 11/26/2014145
  146. 146. • Clouds are here to stay and one should plan on exploiting them • Data Intensive studies in business and research continue to grow in importance • Data Analytics: Everything is an optimization problem in a funny space • Growing employment opportunities in clouds and data related activities and so popular with students • Enabling many of the most important companies from Facebook/Google to General Electric • Need community discussion of data science education • Agree on curricula; is such a degree attractive? • MOOC’s interesting for • Disseminating new curricula • Managing course fragments that can be assembled into custom courses for particular interdisciplinary students CONCLUSIONS 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 146
  147. 147. • Use Clouds running Data Analytics Collaboratively processing Big Data to solve problems in X-Informatics educated in data science • X = Astronomy, Biology, Biomedicine, Business, Chemistry, Climate, Crisis, Earth Science, Energy, Environment, Finance, Health, Intelligence, Lifestyle, Marketing, Medicine, Pathology, Policy, Radar, Security, Sensor, Social, Sustainability, Wealth and Wellness with more fields (physics) defined implicitly • Spans Industry and Science (research) BIG DATA ECOSYSTEM IN ONE SENTENCE 11/26/2014 Course Motivation 147

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